Mountain high enough eight note river wide enough one day before the start of the Democratic Convention in philadelphia, heres what were covering tomorrow. 10 1 30 a. M. A News Conference with a Group Democratic democrats that support Bernie Sanders. The philadelphia mayor and other city officials talk about preparations for hosting the dnc. The chairman of the rnc will be in philadelphia, along with Donald Trump Campaign chair, and afford. Campaign chair paul manafort. A group of millennial journalists talk about covering the 2016 campaign. That is live tomorrow on cspan. I am a candidate for state senate in georgia, district 55, representing emphatically, issues of today is youth development. You have to be catapulted to their careers already, while there in middle school, high school. Youth development should be everybodys issue of today. For. America i am mostly concerned with the economy, and obviously terrorism. I feel that Hillary Clinton is a criminal who belongs in jail. I think its disgraceful shes being allowed to run. I think the media and a lot of people in the Democratic Party are just blindly following her down, hopefully, a path to a loss. I just wanted to underscore the importance of listening to both sides. Politics is polarizing and its hard as a millennial to see my friends getting rough with other people who dont share their same views. I think we should listen to both sides and make sure we can have a great and strong country. Thanks. I am thrilled to be in cleveland after the Republican Convention. What is important for america is job creation and national security. We need donald trump in the white house because america is at risk. The future of america is at stake. At stake for us for and our children. Without i encourage everybody to vote and make America Great again. Hello, my name is linda. Im from texas. I believe that every american needs to look into him or herself, find out what values they hold dear, what principles they stand on, and require that to be in their candidate. Andmily, and country i dont think trump stands for any of those. Now a look at the history of Vice President ial selections and their impact on elections. From washington journal, this is 40 minutes. Host our guess now is kyle kopko, the coauthor of the book the bp advantage. Vp advantage. He joins us from harrisburg, pennsylvania. Thank you for being here this morning. Guest thank you for having me. Host you were here to talk about the importance of Vice President ial text and 8 picks and an election. What you think of tim kaine . Does that make sense to you . Guest Hillary Clinton has said for some time she wanted someone that had a variance experience and can relate to foreignpolicy issues. Tim kaine can certainly step in and be president if there was enough for seen circumstance like the death of president , incapacitation, resignation or impeachment. He has a wealth of political experience. He was the mayor of richmond, the Lieutenant Governor of richmond, governor of virginia, chairman of the dnc. Definitely has a lot of political experience he can bring to the table. Host there has been a lot of discussion about his potential benefit to her as a running mate and actually winning the white house. Virginia being a swing state. He can speak spanish fluently and that might help with the hispanic vote. What has your Research Found about the influence of Vice President of candidates on the actual election . Guest my coauthor at the university of dayton and i recently coauthored a book called the vp advantage every Research Whether or not Vice President ial running mates help to deliver folks in their home states. We examined whether or not they help deliver votes on the national scale. By and large what we find based upon three different empirical methods that we employ in the box, not relying on just one method, we find on average Vice President ial candidates do not deliver a statistically distinguishable home state advantage. Instead what we do find is that a conditional affect where candidates who come from relatively less populous states, smaller states from population, and if those candidates have a wealth of political experience as elected officeholders in those states, that is when you are most likely to observe statistically significant home state advantage. Ae question to ask is Political Institution within a given state. Are they so popular they would be able to broadly appeal to everyone throughout the state and win over the hearts and minds and motivate people to vote for a president ial ticket simply because of the Vice President ial candidate . That isysis suggests not happen as often as commentators suggest that does. Host we were talking briefly about tim kaines experience in virginia. Longtime politician there. Do you think his candidacy might be the exception to the rule . Guest its unlikely given the data. One of the reasons virginia is such a large, diverse state is it is harder to make this kind of connections that you have to make in order to receive a note to world an electoral benefit. Someone like joe biden or Edmund Muskie or Vice President ial candidates they received pretty large home state advantages. A state like delaware is fairly small, only three counties. Joe biden is also summit is a Political Institution within the state. He was in the United States senate for multiple decades. He also served in county level government before he ran for the u. S. Senate. While tim kaine does have a lot of political experience, it is popularr that he is so or has that image of being a Political Institution of virginia that would allow voters to examine the democratic ticket, put aside or at least diminish their feelings for the president ial candidates, policy preferences, and focus on the Vice President ial candidate when making a choice of the ballot box. Host we want listeners and viewers to know they can join the conversation. Democrats can call in with your question or comment at 202 7488000. Republicans, the number is 202 7488001. Independents, the line is 202 7488002. You can also send us a tweet. ,e are talking with kyle kopko the coauthor of the vp advantage. We talked a lot about Hillary Clinton. Lets talk about donald trump in his choice, mike pence. Guest i thought that made a great deal of sense due to the divisions within the Republican Party. One of the reasons why a president ial candidate might select a running mate isnt just for help when they are in office in terms of governing. Not just to potentially pick up votes along the way. But also to help foster party unity. I think as many viewers realized, Donald Trumps candidacy has been divisive in the party. That is evidenced by senator ted cruzs comments at the rnc. Someone like mike pence has conservative credentials. Even evangelical. He is an evangelical. He also has executive experience as the governor of indiana. A way that thes Trump Campaign could help to reassure some skeptical embers of the Republican Party. Plus, whenever donald trump was evaluating running mates he made comments time and time again he would value a running mate that had washington experience. Donald trump is a political outsider and he has used that to his advantage on the campaign trail. But for his perspective he would believe that having someone with a great deal of washington experience might come in handy once in the white house, someone who can reset the congress and help advance policy and legislation on behalf of the white house. Host you mentioned the importance of party unity and the Selection Process for Vice President of candidate. Rnce saw last week at the it did not seem like there was a lot of unity in the party. Ken mike pence bridge that gap can mike pence bridge that gap . Guest it is possible but it will take work. Its not going to be a cakewalk by any means but it is certainly possible. A lot depends on the president ial candidates tone and rhetoric. Its important to keep in mind when discussing Vice President ial selection and the first of Vice President s, and foremost president ial elections are about the president ial candidates. If donald trump doesnt say the types of things that skeptical members within the Republican Party want to hear him say and offer reassurances, it will be awfully hard for mike pence to make that up on behalf of donald trump. I think both members of the president ial ticket really have to espouse some conservative policies to help win over any skeptical members of the party. Host can you talk a little bit about the political calculations and the Selection Process that buys president ial candidates undergo . Vice president ial candidates undergo . Guest that was the subject of a report some months ago and washington, d. C. The short answer is there is not really a standard way of selecting Vice President ial candidates are even vetting them. It varies tremendously. Some campaigns take a great deal of time to vet candidates in advance. They might campaign with potential running mates. We saw that with Hillary Clinton this past time, appearing with a number of Vice President ial finalists including tim kaine. Other times it is not possible due to timing. A great example is a 1972 residential election on the democratic side when georgia governor was running for president. And the lead up to the dnc that year there was a vacation that senator ted kennedy would be the running mate for George Mcgovern that year. By ted kennedy turned it down. Otherrn began to approach potential running mates and a were not interested in the post. A lastminute selection was made of senator Thomas Eagleton of misery. Misery. Missouri. There was no meaningful vetting because it was a lastminute decision. A kind of backfired. In the days that followed there were news reports that surfaced questioning Thomas Eagletons Mental Health. He was hospitalized for depression, underwent electroshock therapy. A concerned a great number of voters will we are at the height of the cold war. Some of the attacks against Thomas Eagleton was this is the person to be president. Do you want someone that has Mental Health issues with her finger on the proverbial button . Its really all over the map. I think both parties are aware of this and in the future some campaigns will try to come up with more standardized methods of selecting Vice President running mate. Host lets turn to the callers. From princess and, maryland. Darius,. Good morning to you caller good morning. Good morning. I am calling because i have a question about Vice President ial picks. As you stated before, this is the president ial election. Most people are worried about the president ial candidate. As Vice President ial candidates are adding to the bandwagon. I chose very early not to vote for hillary or donald trump. I am still very undecided. Makingking prize then Vice President ial picks is not many move left or right of center when i think about the role of of the government should be and what we should be doing in the world in general. I also served in the military. It is just really crazy. I hear a lot of callers saying we need to go to war, we need to do this, we need to do that. I think a lot of people should be quiet and listen to some of the people that have gone out and done some of these things. Tim kaine does not seem like one of these individuals. I was reading he has something to do with dodd frank, and supported the tpp. Maybe you can expand on that. Host kyle kopko . Guest yes, i think you mix a good point. I think this is something our Research Bears out. Not a great number of voters are significantly swayed by Vice President ial candidate selections. Even in the news media in recent days leading up to this election, the reports seem to characterize tim kaine as a safe selection for Hillary Clinton. Someone who is characterized as boring. That is something tim kaine used to describe himself in recent interviews as well. It is someone who is going to be more lowkey on the campaign trail. This is something that campaigns also like to emphasize. They dont want the Vice President of candidates to overshadow the president ial candidates because they can take away from the message, the policy vision going forward. These are all very important things campaigns have to consider as a work of the next few months leading up to november 8. Host tom from pennsylvania is the next color. He is on the republican line. Good morning. Caller my question is which one of the Vice President ial candidates do you think has an edge in a debate scenario . Guest thats a great question. Yearsy, i think this debate between mike pence and tim kaine can be pretty meaty in terms of policy issues. They are both seasoned politicians, used to speaking before an audience. Answering a variety of policy and political questions. I am not sure this year who i would give the edge to. Certainly if someone is illprepared going into a debate that is going to make a difference. Even so, there have been some analysis by pollsters to see if Vice President joe debates have a significant Vice President ial debates have Significant Impact on opinions of candidates and their ticket. Generally it does not. It could be because president s are more important, but also the fact there are more president ial debates. Whenever the Vice President s debate they are not talking about their individual visions and policy decisions. Iny are more casting thing terms of what would Hillary Clinton do, what will donald trump do with it for years. They are playing a support role. Its an interesting debate format in that regard. Host tony from Atlantic City is calling of the democratic line. What is your question or comment . Caller good morning. My comment is i dont think the vp pick really matters. At the end of the day of looking at what the president is going to do. The way i look at it now, with donald trump and his policies and Hillary Clintons, its a nobrainer to me. I am all in for hillary and i dont care she picked ronald mcdonald. It would not matter to me one way or another. Thank you. Host just a reminder to our viewers and listeners, you can call me their questions and comments. 202 7488000. Republicans, 202 7488001. Independents, the line is 202 7488002. You can also send us a tweet. We are talking with kyle kopko. He is associate professor of Political Science at Elizabethtown College. He is joining us from harrisburg, pennsylvania. You were quoted in this story in the philadelphia observer. Five of the top president ial attack job dogs in American History. Is that typically the role the Vice President of candidate plays . Guest often times it is. It depends on the personality of the Vice President ial candidate to be sure. This is a Campaign Strategy a lot of campaigns have used over the years. What this allows the president ial candidate to do in terms of focusing on a positive vision for the entire country. What do they hope to accomplish once they are elected . It allows them to appear more president ial and hopefully appeal to voters. If a Vice President ial candidate can assume the role of the atack dog, they can lob variety of criticisms of the opposing party. It allows the president ial candidate to remain above the fray. I am not sure how that will play out this year. Host this seems to be turning that model on its head this year in the Republican Party. Guest yes. Donald trump has never shied away from lobbying lobbing criticism at his opponents. Is it necessary mike pence would play that role . We will just have to wait and see. This is ultimately a strategic decision the campaigns have to make for themselves. Host john from massachusetts on the republican line. Did trumps selection of mike pence make a difference to you . Caller i have been doing my research. I did have a question about hillarys if i may. My question is what kind of impact do you think this will have on