Good morning, everyone. Welcome to brookings. We are here today to discuss afghanistan, as you know. In one sense, it is still a time of year. Hopeful. L 15 years into the afghanistan 9 11,n and 15 years after we know there is an ongoing very struggle throughout the broader middle east and in. Fghanistan is itself we are glad you came to join in this discussion. There are couple of words i want to say before introducing the panelists. The approach here is to have a broad discussion framed by each of them. We will talk amidst ourselves and then go to you for our question. All want to commemorate and and the victims of 9 11, this the families, soldiers and marines. In the and everyone else Intelligence Community who have worked so hard, offered a great sacrifice. It is just a day and moment to reflect and honor them since we are approaching 9 11. Second, in the way of commemorating big event, i want my colleague who has been the Communications Director who is leaving brookings after today. We collected a few of the statistics that give a small indication that you can ever use metrics. Time at brookings of. Udget has more than doubled organize 1500 to events like this one. She has supervised and orchestrated some 5000 or hervision radio spots by scholars. Is going off to work on the important issue of refugees in the future. We greatly respect her policy andto public what she has done for all of us. I want to thank her and her team that have worked so closely with her over the years. A big day for brookings. [applause] as you know, we have outstanding panel. On this it is really a treat to not only gail but to recognize who we have appear. Just to my left, one of the most diligent and intrepid and brilliant field researchers that met and been going to afghanistan for over a decade back to dissertation days. Wrote a book called shooting up afghanistan. Out this remains a big issue there. To this day continues to travel and wrote onean of the best books on the subject, aspiration and , which i recommend to anyone who is not read it yet. Speaking of the mission, next to allen, thel John Brookings senior fellow, commander of the International Force in afghanistan from the summer 2011 into the 2013, a 19 month stretch, which was crucial. I want to let you all know this marine who did a lot of other things in the marine corps, beginning with create the infantry officer course at quantico, the event for training in the u. S. Infantry marine corps, which did not exist prior to his role in that. Then we know the marines trusted him. The navy then trusted him and admittedly he was a graduate of an annapolis but midshipmentjob of. The first time a marine was ever be responsible for sailors and that institution and capacity. Muchtells you about how the navy had a high regard for general allen. Time working on east issues at the pentagon in early 2000 before deploying. Then from that point on, many other jobs in the Central Command theater, including general to try us deputy, acting there, and ultimately, stepping down from government fall in a civilian role as a court nader for the president kerry in the campaign against isis. Afghanistan, he was there during the initial downtime. By comparison, he had it easy. S in as the pete, general petraeus left and general allen was asked to implement the drive down. The good news for todays discussion, that meant general china involved in transferring security. This is the main fighting force at a time when the United States and down tod by 90 roughly 10,000 u. S. Military personnel in the country. Coordinating the initial 2009 policy review on afghanistan and pakistan, a role that he played holbrook andchard produce the initial obama thinking about what to do with the entire region. That was after a number of years yet spent at brookings where he today. Nior fellow he was a 30 year veteran of the cia. He played a key role on latesing crisis in the 1990s. Also, very involved in the process. St peace bruce, in his time here, has received booksll related to the pakistan question. The other one is avoiding armageddon. Him his role to pakistan. Ing thank you for your and old gents. Now i am finally going to pose questions. We will start with general allen. Nd then go to rhonda and bruce i want to as general allen for his overall take on the security knowtion and also let you that in a minute i will ask our newly arrived army colonel. This is analyst going back to their agency and spending a year with us. The eastern part of the country until last fall. Very close contact them since then. Recentgive us a fairly update. First, we will get started. General alan, thank you for your service for what you did in afghanistan. Back threeoking years later tracking yourself when there have been numerous acts of violence. How you see the situation, the good and the bad and the ugly . How do you feel about the profanation of the past Going Forward . Panelat to be back on the with you. This is a very important subject up on the anniversary. I remember it very well. Being on the ship that day as they were trying to figure out where life was going them. E i knew where life was going to take them and i knew it was to take me leading the war effort in afghanistan. You can do part afghanistan but never really leave it. At that moment when i took in july 20 11, it has been a special place to me. I will take a moment and recall all of our troops and allied troops who parish stiffness but to recall the sacrifices of the forces, the enormous sacrifices of the Afghan Forces and afghan civilians as well. We said before on this stage and places that the longterm success will show that. Whether it is a Political Economic success is be a function of the security environment and capacity of the Afghan NationalSecurity Forces to provide the security over long time. We can go back and do the ports and postmortem on all the recommendations on the numbers and how they were implemented and where they are. Numbers do not really tell the story. Aftermath and the closing down of the mission and the establishment of support, we had 13,000 nato forces in theater. U. S. Atso have been some point. 2800 or so our special operators and advisers. The situation on the ground in changed fromas time to time. There is a lot of debate for how you would articulate the situation on the ground. Termld definitely use the challenging. Becomeuation has in fact more challenging. Perhaps even worrisome in the months. Eral it is not something that i think beyond the capacity of the Afghan Forces to hold over time and deal with overtime. Having been very close to those forces for the better part of a and having seen afghan troops in combat, many of the leaders leave their troops credibly, not just that the level, but increasingly at larger level. Regular brigade size operations, confidenceill have that Afghan NationalSecurity Forces can pull this out over time. Said, we have seen the taliban resurgence be problematic in the past year or so. Taliban in the north have become a challenge. Moment, nearief humiliation for the afghan ultimatelyrces, but they were able to take back crisis significant human and the disaster of the friendly still, for hospital theh we all still regret casualties. We have seen a resurgence in security. Iban a loss of the number of forced thehat has american commander in conjunction with the leadership to put additional American Forces on the ground to at least capital. District that we will see that negative trend reversed, largely because the leadership core, the area of hellman, just , has beenndahar replaced, and i think we will see improvement in the relatively near future. Wasprevious commander largely incompetent. The challenge we face Going Forward is stabilizing of our to continue to affect relationships that we need to have with the afghans , not just a training world but include role to providing Additional Air support to the Afghan National security in ways that we were unable to do before. Will be of a lot of assistance to secure the environment, maintain the centers and not give up the district. At this point a number of districts have gone into the hands of the taliban more than we would certainly want. I do believe over time they will be able to take them back. Talk briefly about the u. S. Decisionmaking. The number we originally recommended and ultimately were buried to somend extent. Varied to some extent. Number was both probably short of timetoo in terms of the initial obligation of those forces. As june of this sheer, all of the former afghan former american commanders in as late as june of this year. Writing a letter asking to seize the draw down forces in afghanistan until such time as the new president after the election can have the time to study the situation and determine whether additional drawdown requirements should be stabilizeer we should , or whether we should even go up in numbers. My conversations that continued with my Life Partners still on 40 u. S. Nd, about partners on the ground today, go up ine need to numbers over time. In june of this year we asked that we stop the drawdown to president who will own the outcome in afghanistan the opportunity to study the thetionship between security environment, Political Economicnt, and environment because they are all linked. Study the relationship between the three of those to determine whether the nato commitment is satisfactory, both in numbers timelineility and in to support the continued training and operational of the afghan. Ational Security Forces we will see papers coming out of brookings that continue to be the result of the combined generals and ambassadors and scholars who are attentive. The security environment is essential as a platform. Forward politically and economically. The Security Platform is challenged today. I do believe a resurgent taliban and, believing that we were that down to a number could permit them to affect the Tipping Point with the afghans, foiled that have plan. By staying at the number we are around 8500,ere and even with the next president changing theare capabilities mix and increasing. He firepower i believe what we will hold what momentum,ght, change and i am pragmatic on the subject. If we get our decisionmaking right in the afghans are inficiently discriminating who may permit to leave the and 200 first and strong. Are pretty they are in the east and north where the pretty big bite is. That is a pretty big outfits. The kandahar region has strongly had a very outfits. The holman area is the heart and soul of the taliban. The hellman area. That has always been a tough fight. They have fired more than 70 officers from the afghan Security Forces and police. Start, but we have a lot more to do. Command inrship in afghanistan is truly determined. N patriotic it is not uncommon for that part of the world to have the challenge. We recognize this by stabilizing our numbers, ensuring capabilities are the best suited for the needs of the act and forces, and iity think we will be ok. Thank you. Thank you general allen. Because of the security situation that is so paramount and on our mind today with the recent attacks, i want to give comment time to comment well. T you are seeing as i wanted to ask you to add your perspective. Good morning. I would underscore general comments that the security is challenging, very challenging. Challenging most 2002. Any time since certainly challenging from the perspective of Afghan People and also from international civilian. It will very much enable or assist for economic growth. Afghanistan has become a difficult environment with few being who live in kabul able to travel outside of kabul. It is not just international. Just traveling is a major risk. Going up north has essentially become an permissible for afghanistans. What we see today is a that is cut off from country. Ts of the casualtiesf civilian is the greatest it has ever been. It cannot bemeans reversed. But nonetheless, the security deeply intend to and undermines many elements of the economic elements and economic elements much a stage of insecurity in the country. I have been communicating intensely over the past 24 hours. Quite disturbing to see the reactions from the attacks. Just the level of going about every day issues has been at the challenges and problems. It is becoming a major issue for people. There arerse different situations. It is not just about the taliban. It is also very much about and politics. Indeed, a very significant elements of the security life, anddaily taliban cane exploit is the number of kidnapping going on in the country. Those target international, but also afghanistan businessman. What we are seeing is something that at one point happens and the height of the crisis when the number of people targeted for kidnapping, the type of people targeted for kidnapping down from very rich businessmen to white middleclass people would be quite vulnerable. Probably imperative the government takes on the kidnapping, the pervasive criminality. This debilitate every day life. Linked to politics and is interesting and challenging situation in afghanistan. The initial configuration of the government was the last two years. Then there was to be consideration of the arrangement at various points and consolidation. Believe there would be a longerterm resolution of. He relationship that has not happened. A look tour of reform has been stark for over a year. Now they are saying the government should come to an is no longer a. Pace it was believed by now he would be appointed Prime Minister and system would be changed to a parliamentary system. Something he ever bought into. Misunderstanding. They are now being compounded by voices inside the government. Karzai has been called for the government. That it would be unconstitutional and many fear would not be helpful to the political process. So we are in the state of weeksng for the next few how this agreement will be resolved and whether the government will stay in this constellation or whether there will be changes. Certainly there will not be for at least half a year, likely more than that. Meanwhile, there are other outside in kabul and kabul. Fire but connthey have tried to have not been able to accomplish that. Some of this gameplay friday to actual firefight between supporters of the president and a northern group. I think that because it although it has no Lasting Impact of the or how security works in afghanistan, but at the same time, the firefight again stimulated a sense that this may for disintegration. This raised recent memories of the 1990s. I believe there is an in these difficult elements for the Afghanistan Government and afghan politicians and people. For too long, there was a sense among afghanistan politicians can work the ship of state as much as possible to milk greater political forms ofnts and other payouts and politics can be constant brinksmanship and crisis making. Thatnistan cannot afford anymore. It has to be about governance. Very long time afghan politicians would say it could disintegrate to the 1990s, it can never go back to war or maybe the firefight is a wakeup call that politics needs to fundamentally governmentwant the gets out of the current crisis, monthr it is later this or even later, and there is a new government and the new opportunity toan work with other political power brokers and politicians to deliver in a more robust and has notrupt way that been the case so far. I think the state of or isan politics is better or worse than ours. That one. I will get bruce engaged as well. Ask your take on the pakistani angle. Anything that you want to talk about. I know that when you did your , you had a certain pakistan. Ing of a certain history. I would be curious if things have gone more or less as you expected. Is the how much pakistani role this central duck go much is it more of a secondary factor . Thank you for organizing this. A pleasure to be here with all of you. Let me start with a piece of good news. When president obama announced his strategy in march 2009, it very clear about what the top goals and priorities of and party was. That was to disrupt, dismantle, and effete al qaeda and afghanistan and practice and. In 2009 that meant primarily in pakistan. This essentially moved al qaeda from one side of the line to the other side. By 2000 and eight and 2009 al by 2008 and 2009, was robust andre fully recovered and engaged in a global terrorist operation. In 2003 we had the madrid attack , the deadliest terror attack in since therope beginning of the nine 11 era. In 2005. N attack 2006 tod an attack in simultaneously blowup jumbo planes over the atlantic. We now know in 2009 al qaeda was planning a massive attack on the u. S. New york city subway , which was foiled. Al qaeda was the proper goal of 2009. Ited states in 7. 5 years later al qaeda in does has not been destroyed but substantially and put on the back foot. Continuedquires monitoring and surveillance, but improvedtion is much from what it was in 2008 and 2009. I think there are significant lessons to be learned. One of them is the United States has to be offense of as well as thinks of in how it the problems. Characterize the. Ituation as largely defensive we have been trying to shore up Afghan Government to shore up the Afghan NationalSecurity Forces. That is difficult to do when you basically secede they will have permanent sanctuary in a in pakistan. Taliban for at least 14 of the past 15 years have been able to operate out with impunity but patron ship of the army. Ani this goes beyond simply and safe a sanctuary haven for the taliban and their families but active patronage support. We know the Pakistani Army and service actively engaged in training, helping fund the operations and , includinge attacks those inside kabul. Learn somehave to lessons about this when the next president thinks about Going Forward. In may of this share president has