Affects relationships with other middle eastern countries. I am married with stevens inc. , your host for tonights seminar on conservative realism and National Security and night, we will discuss the middle east to mark the second anniversary of the Abraham Accords, the landmark agreement that normalized is really all israeli relationship normalized israeli relations with some arab countries. Robert obrien is here as well as our cochairs and members. Welcome, gentlemen. Secretary pompeo, we mark two years of the Abraham Accords. Are the echoes of nixons two negotiate with middle east partners to have new thinking, what was the key insight your administration had to make the Abraham Accords possible . Mr. Pompeo thank you, good to be with everyone. There are echoes of nixon, when you heard about people who needed to be in place to make such a thing happen. The understanding that allowed this to break free with something president nixon would have appreciated. The understanding was that we made a decent effort to make life effort the palestinians and clearly demonstrated that were going to reject that and Everything Else and that us from the central conceit which was, nothing can happen until that is fixed. Until somehow the palestinians and israelis come to understanding we knew that wasnt going to happen with abbas in charge in the west bank and hamas in charge of the gaza strip. We were able to convince the other countries that joined the Abraham Accords to move past that as well, that this was a different time in history, and ending the conflict in making life better for the Palestinian People was important. It was changing their core Foreign Policy belief, which was changing which was the distraction of israel. Once we adopted upon that said we would happy to work we would be once we adopted a posture that said we would be happy to work if abbas is not in charge, we found great partners to join us in that understanding. Ambassador obrien, that was a central idea that if it didnt work for decades, it wasnt going to work. That is a foundation, but you have to have partners. Give us the inside view as to how you and others found those partners, and who the people where that made this possible. I think you are on mute, ambassador. Ambassador obrien thank you, mary and thank you, mike. There are a lot of ingredients that went into the Abraham Accords out a lot of leaders including secretary pompeo played key roles. Let me talk about two issues that are relevant. First are the personal relationships that were key to diplomacy. And the second is Political Capital. We had Political Capital and in the negotiation process that led to the results and the signing of the accords. Let me give you an example of a relationship i developed with the crown prince of the uae. We went to the uae [indiscernible] and the uae and the, rodneys lunch and the emiratis launched an effort that brought danny home. I met with mbz in the uae late at night. We were in the palace. I thanked him for the accommodations. I asked what was on his mind. He needed more weapons so he could defend his country against the iranian threat. And he wasnt getting them. He wasnt getting the support he needed from the United States. It was a little bit out of my lane. I came back and had a conversation with mike. I never let lanes constrain me. I said, i am sympathetic to the request, the uae is our ally, the secretary felt the same way. Mike took it from there and we got it done. That leads to the next issue of Political Capital. We build Political Capital on both sides. In uae, the weapons they needed, and we moved our embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem. And that is something candidates had promised four years and years, we are going to pick up stakes in tel aviv and go to jerusalem. It never happened. There were always reasons why. We move the embassy to jerusalem and then, we recognized the golan heights. Our arab allies were concerned about the Muslim Brotherhood and islamic extremist. And we defeated isis and then took out now baghdad then took out al baghdadi, and we put pressure on iran. We put money in the bank and when mike and i and jared were negotiating, we had to ask the israelis not to annex part of the west bank and had to ask the arabs to walk away from the palestinians and not allow the palestinians to spoil the deal. We had the political credit. We had developed of their confidence, not just in terms of personal relationships, but by doing what we said we would do. We were able to make those tough asks and they said yes and we were able to finalize the accords. The key issues with the personal relationships and everyone had a role to play, secretary pompeo did, jared ed, the president and, and that is out we got it done. We did something politicians dont like to do, we spent the capital to get a great result and it was a historic undertaking. I came back from israel last week. The people in israel are grateful for what the team did to get those accords in place because it has changed their lives day to day. They are seeing the impacts of the accords today. Mary it was a wonderful achievement. It was a bipartisan achievement, which is fantastic. Secretary pompeo, when we talk about peace accords, people might think it is about getting two sides to like one another. Nixon, and one of his books, said peace in the middle east is not a matter of the arabs and israelis learning to like each other, it means learning to live peacefully with their differences. Ambassador obrien, you talked about having money in the bank, being credible, was a lot of this about coming together because they had common enemies in iran, not because they were learning to love one another . That seems like that process might take a lot of time. Ambassador obrien that is right. When they say, do you like each other, you think about whether the leaders get along and cooperate and whether there are connections in the depth of those relationships. Those relationships dont get built out until after the things the ambassador was referring to. And do years later, we have footholds in the commercial space and security space and diplomatic space that did not exist when the agreements were signed. You have to find a set of common interests. There were three pieces of this. Ambassador obrien spoke of one, that was that no one and no other country watching us till this, watching us do this ever mistook the fact we were going to be deeply connected to israel and do everything to have their back. That turned out to be really important, not just the israelis when we asked them to do hard things, but our other friends thought we were going to stick with our friends. The second piece is iran bad. The notion gave courage to the arab nations, not just those who signed the Abraham Accords, to say that they recognize the thing that threatens our people and are prepared to do the hard work to secure our nation against bad actors. I dont know that the Abraham Accords happened without the strike on solemani. I can assure you those arab leaders said these folks are serious. They knew the risk that had been taken in striking solemnan striking solemani, they knew we were willing to do hard things for their region, willing to do hard things against iran for being a recalcitrant actor and the worlds biggest state sponsor of terror and that enabled us to get this over the finish line. Mary again, connections to Richard Nixon who armed israel during the yom kippur war but also work to find a way out between is a resilient its former enemies in the region. Ambassador obrien, before we open it to seminar members, secretary pam payoff talked about iran, maximum pressure campaign, that the pressure facilitated the Abraham Accords and stop a lot of terror. We have been administration now that is coming to the table for talks. What impact might that have on the Abraham Accords . Ambassador obrien i was in tel aviv and jerusalem last weekend met with a lot of former officials and current government officials and saw bibi netanyahu, who sent his best to you, mike. There is concern that the new jcpoa, which is viewed not just by the israelis but by our arab partners as a complete surrender to iran and it will allow them to enrich capacity tenfold and will give them sanctions relief, no one believes iran is going to spend it on the middle class, they are going to spend it on terrorism. There is real concern that if that happens, our arab allies, if they see the u. S. Pulling back from maximum pressure on iran, that they are going to have to create space for themselves and a separate piece with iran because they no longer that separate separate peace with iran because they no longer believe the u. S. As their back. They are going to ask israel to tamp down on commercial activity that mike was talking about and there is concern china will step into the region and china will ask our arab allies to do things that will harm israel for a different reason. This is something the secretary and i worked on with 5g and technology the chinese, when we shut them out of buying our Tech Companies and stealing our tax, they turned to israel. Tel aviv is a second silicon valley, it is an amazing thing, and the chinese were trying to invest there. Once we had the abraham, a lot of investment in israeli tech came from the uae, bahrain, saudi arabia and it displaced chinese money in the chinese got pushed out of the tech sector in israel. If our arab allies see the u. S. Retreating, the chinese are going to want a piece of whatever investment is taking place. We have a real danger that the jcpoa, the current deal is worse than the first, there is a chance if that is signed that the framework of the Abraham Accords of peace with not only arab countries, but kosovo and europe, that could fall apart because of the failure to contain iran and keep up our maximum pressure campaign. It is a concern of israel and the elf region gulf region and it will be heartbreak if signing the deal leads to less american influence in the region and undermines the accords we got signed. [no audio] mike, do you want to comment until we get mary back on the line . Mary we mentioned communist china and suddenly come up my feed was cut. You can tell me if that is a coincidence. I just missed you, sorry, ambassador, do you have anything else . Otherwise, i want to kick this to one of the congressmen who have joined us. Ambassador obrien i have had my say. Mary great. If i got cut off again, you know who to blame. Congressmen, thanks for joining us, we have a great lineup of seminar members. I want to follow up on the china theme. Richard nixon worked with egypt to pull egypt away from the soviet union, the then former soviet union, and into our sphere of influence. Shouldnt we be doing the same thing or thinking the same way about saudi arabia, trying to get them into the Abraham Accords to for them towards us and away from beijing . You always want to be adding friends and partners to your existing alliance structure. We have extensive cooperation with saudi arabia, but i am reminded by something nixon said i believe when talking to chow enlai about the unpredictable nature of statecraft and grand strategy. He said the helmsman must ride with the waves or he will be submerged with tide. Kissinger said the pledges of each administration are like leaves on a turbulent sea. That highlights something significant about the Abraham Accords. Which is to say they harness the development that was already emerging in the middle east. That is not to downplay the creativity and significant accomplishment of everyone in the administration, but rather highlight it, recognizing the reality that our sunni arab allies, we were not seeking to palestinianize their relationships with us and their dropout and their top ally was allied with iran, and that should allow us to build off the Abraham Accords framework, enhance cooperation between the sunni, gulf states, saudi arabia the foremost among them, and it may not be a formal admission to the Abraham Accords, it could be confidencebuilding measures. Add over time, find a way to reduce our force foster in the region and focus on the indo pacific and china. I cant overstate the accomplishment of the Abraham Accords and the farcited nature farsighted nature of secretary pompeo and ambassador obrien dined everyone who worked on it. It opened opportunity for us in a region that has posed problems for us for over a decade and it is incumbent upon all of us in a bipartisan action in congress to build off that framework and build as many other countries in the region into that framework as possible because that is our best chance at getting the most offense at least cost in the middle east. I am optimistic about it except for the fact that this Administration May get back into the iv and deal. All the courageous moves mentioned earlier, recognizing israeli sovereignty over the go long, diplomatic outreaches, the decision to get out of the jcpoa despite pressure to stay in, some pressure even within the Republican Party to see if they could fix the deal, i think deserves a ton of credit. I am not sure how many other president s would have made those decisions, etc. We of secretary pompeo and former President Trump a debt of gratitude for their willingness to see the jcpoa for what it was and all its deficiencies in the light of day. Mary lets stay on the congressional fame. Congressman walz, we have got you on the line. Lets talk about the prospect of more nations joining the Abraham Accords. Is any National Capital in their right mind going to do this while we are negotiating through the russians with the iranians . I dont see that in the short term, unfortunately. The opportunities are there, as representative gallagher laid out. I second his praise of the administration. It was a series of moves they were able to put placing a short time that i think realized and forward fueled on the fire of the reality of what our sunni arab allies, the direction they had been wanting to move for some time. Like we see, it took American Leadership to put our shoulder kind it and lay that path out with reassurances game yet in reassurances. In terms of moving forward. Forward, the administration is going to find a real problem in congress with where they are going with iran deal to point out. Iran deal 2. 0. It is far worse. What has me so alarmed is lifting the secondary sanctions on the irtc, backending dropping them from the foreign terrorist list which, if we believe what the iranians, russians and others are saying is what the administration is contemplating, the releasing of billions from some of our asian allies into the iranian government, the lifting of sanctions from the ayatollahs and our circle, banks, their energy sector, only to have the sunset clauses still kick in, in a few years. It buys us almost no time. But the thing that has me so upset that is unconstitutional and wrong is to try to put things in place now that will tie a future administration of either partys and send to leave the russians as the arbiter of whether other side is following this deal. It is asinine. But to the point, we just had 50 democrats and republicans express their concern. I led the letter last year with 70 republicans and 70 democrats, 70 democrats to get on board with 70 republicans on anything right now is significant, saying any future deal had to be stronger than the previous jcpoa is significant. This should be a treaty. We will see if they try to get around the legislation passed in 2015 saying any future deal has to come before the congress, and if we express discontent, if we dont agree with the tenets of the deal, we can pull the rug out from under it. There is a lot to go. Even if they enter it as reported in terms of congresss input on both sides of the aisle , both sides i think are being the alarm bell right now, not to mention the bills effects on the Abraham Accords. Mary let me play devils advocate, secretary pompeo, ambassador obrien expressed concern negotiations with the wrong could have negative impact on the accords. What if the opposite happens . What if they see renewed iranian aggression and say, we have to continue to Work Together on the defense front . There is talk of antimissile cooperation in the strait, i think, to patrol that for International Shipping traffic. Secretary pompeo . Mr. Pompeo you will see both. You will see increased security operation with emirati playing spying alongside emirati planes flying alongside israeli planes, which may have seemed incomprehensible a few years ago to almost everybody on this call. There will be the inverse as well which, if they dont see the things that they saw, the strong push back against iran, the willingness to provide them with a defensive system that they need, they will find them someplace else and they will find places to Exchange Ambassadors with the iranians, find ways to signal to the iranians, cant we just get along . You will see each of those behaviors when you dont have an america prepared to be a strong ally partner of israel, pushback against chiron and make sure sunni arab nations understand we are good partners for them. Those in the deal will still try to find ways to work with israel, even some who arent, but you cant get the depth and scope of the Abraham Accords without all the elements that had come into play by the third year of our administration. Mary i want to pull in jim reed, the i want to pull in the former chairwoman of the importexport bank. Id want id dont want to underestimate the business ties between israel and places like the uae, do you see that expanding . It is very important. Nice to be