Transcripts For CSPAN Natl 20240705 : vimarsana.com

CSPAN Natl July 5, 2024

Welcome. We will be brief in this introduction because you didnt come to hear me. You came for the National Security advisor Jake Sullivan. Let me just note that after his remarks, we will take a couple of questions from the press pool here and a couple of questions from the audience. If you are would like to ask a question, i think on the path by her chair, hold it up for our staff and they will collected. What brings us together as an association is our belief that americas National Security depends upon prudent restraint in Nuclear Policy and upon an active effort led by the United States to constantly reduce the risk of nuclear war and to fulfill our leap goal legal obligations to negotiate in good faith, the reduction and elimination of Nuclear Weapons. To our meeting last year, President Biden wrote that perhaps more than any other time in the cold war, we must work to reduce the risk of an arms race or nuclear escalation. Arms control and nonproliferation diplomacy continue to be the central part of safeguarding global security. I think it is a good thing that we have never had before a president with such long and intense experience in Nuclear Policy. Not as our current president. I think President Biden is fortunate in having Jake Sullivan advising him on these issues, and we are both fortunate and honored to have him here today. Please bring him a good welcome. Jake. Thank you for that very important set of introductory comments and for the kind words. I also want to think therell for bringing us all together here. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to say a few things here this morning. 60 years ago, next month, in black and white video, president kennedy addressed the nation. He was sitting behind the same resolute desk that President Biden has been sitting behind nearly every day, and i sit across from him. Nearly every day. My fellow citizens, he said, i speak you tonight in a spirit of hope. Negotiations were concluded in moscow on a treaty to ban all nuclear test. After years of stop and start negotiations, years of dialogue, years of commitment and courage, establishing the Nuclear Test Ban treaty was a huge moment. Not only for own nationals 30 but for the sick already and stability of the world. As this group knows well, it was one of the steps that would slowly usher in an era of responsible armscontrol and Nuclear Deterrent measures. And where nations could compartmentalize the issues of strategic stability even if they couldnt cooperate or watch anything else. An era where adversaries could disagree and debate across every domain but could limit nuclear risk. An era where World Leaders choose transparency even during times of tension. Especially during times of tension. What is at stake is too important. That is the foundation of Nuclear Stability and security that we have depended on for decades. It is the foundation that the armscontrol association has helped to uphold across generations. Over the last two years, that has begun to erode. Today, we now stand at what we would call an Inflection Point in our new stability and security. Point that demands new strategies for achieving the same goals we have held since the cold war. Reduce the risk of Nuclear Conflict area today, i would like to lay out what we are endeavoring to do pursuit of this. I will start with the cracks in the foundation that we see. The new threats that are challenging the postcold war nuclear order. Then i will walk through how we are adapting both our Nuclear Deterrence and our armscontrol strategies to meet this moment. As weve all seen recently, the cracks in the foundation have come from russia. Last year, Russian Forces recklessly attacked and seized a region of the power plant in ukraine. The largest operational nuclear rent in europe. With little concern for the potential catastrophic option incidents. Earlier this year, president putin unlawfully suspended the russian implementation of a new start treaty that places limits on the most distraught limits and arsenal break the kind that can destroy the world many times over. Over a month later, president putin began take steps to station Tactical Nuclear weapons in belarus. And, as we all saw, putin formally announced that he will withdraw from the treaty on conventional forces in europe. This puts the final nail in the coffin that once served as the cornerstone of European Security which began to be violated years ago. Even prior to the brutal assault on ukraine, for years, we have advanced to develop it of dangerous capabilities like radiation spewing cruise missiles all while modernizing and stockpiling old capabilities that are not regulated by armscontrol agreements like theater range missiles and torpedoes. Russias actions have been dealing body blows to the postcold war new or armscontrol test framework. But it is not just russia we have to look to to consider the full scope of the contacts we find ourselves in. With respect to Nuclear Security and stability. Weve also seen a change in approach in china. By 2035, we are on track to have as many as 50 nuclear warheads. One of the largest peacetime nuclear buildups in history. Unlike russia, we are threatening to walk away from a negotiating table from the armscontrol agreement that has been relied upon for years. The prc has thus far opted not to come to the table for substantive dialogue and armscontrol. There are launch notifications, and we have not show much interest in discussions that have been made to nuclear force. Simply put, we have not yet seen a willingness from the prc to compartmentalize strategic stability from broader issues in the relationship. That as noted before has been the bedrock of Nuclear Security and strategic stability for decades. Finally, we are seeing increasing Nuclear Threats last year alone, kim jongun claimed he had the worlds most powerful nuclear arsenal. That allowed plans to ramp up everything from tactical nukes to icbms to unmanned Nuclear Weapons. There was a sweeping new policy that would allow Nuclear Weapons to be a lot first in direct violation of the Nuclear Proliferation treaty. He has tested more Ballistic Missiles than any other. In dprks history. After the previous departure from a deal that put strict limits on Nuclear Development and prevented it from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Irans Nuclear program was left unconstrained. As a result, they are enriching more uranium including with weapons grade, and they have done so with less monitoring than when it was under the strict constraints of the joint comprehensive plan of action. Taken together the cracks in our postcold War Foundation is deep. Today, we are entering a new era that demands new strategies and solutions to achieve the goals weve always had. Prevent an arms race, reduce the risk of misperception and escalation and most importantly ensure the safe and sick parity of our people and people around the world from the learned threats and the same goals. New strategy. First, to plans, and second, nuance control and Risk Reduction measures. These are two sides to the same proverbial nuclear going. Enhancing deterrent capabilities and allowing us to strengthen confidence and new armscontrol can help shape our adversarial decisions on the car capabilities. We will discuss each side of the nuclear going. I will start with a deterrent side of the coin. We will take a twopronged approach. First, we are modernizing our Nuclear Program at home. In practice, that means we are replacing each of our triad, Ballistic Missile submarines and Nuclear Capable bombers. We are updating our Nuclear Command and architecture. We are replacing aging capabilities with next generation systems. It means investing in the nuclear complex to help ensure we have a Nuclear Enterprise and a resilient base for longterm competition. I want to be clear. United states does not need to increase Nuclear Forces to outrun and successfully deter them. We have been there. We have learned the lesson. Nor, does the United States need to have a deterrent maintenance. Rather, effective deterrence means that we have a better approach, and not more approach. It means ensuring we have capacity and capability to deter, and if necessary defeat major aggression against our country, our allies and our partners. To enhance the effectiveness, we have invested in cutting edge not Nuclear Capabilities that will help sustain the military advantage for decades to come. Capabilities like conventionally armed hypersonic missiles that can reach high value targets. This includes Nuclear Capable missiles a cyberspace tool that will help United States retain advantage over every domain. Together, these modernization efforts will ensure arch turn capabilities remain secure and strong as we head into the 20 30s when the United States will need to deter two Nuclear Powers for the first time in its history. We cant go at this alone, which leads to the second prong of our strategy. Investing and strengthening our alliances abroad. That has been President Bidens overriding priority in many ways and his northstar since the very first day as president of the United States. As we work to deepen our alliances, we always remember that one of our greatest nonproliferation accomplishments has been the u. S. Extended deterrence which has reassured so many of our partners that they do not need to develop Nuclear Weapons of their own. For example, in april, the president reaffirmed our ironclad treaty, including an extended commitment. A step that created more cooperation during a potential nuclear crisis. It showed a recommitment to our shared nonproliferation objectives. Along with our nato allies, we are focused on modernizing an alliance keep the lady. Maturing broad participation in the Nuclear Deterrent to certifying our f35 aircraft to deliver modern Nuclear Gravity bombs. All of these steps from revitalizing our Nuclear Program at home to reinvigorating alliances abroad in those categories, they will be necessary in their own right, but taken together, with the same stability goals weve always had. They will show adversaries and competitors that in an arms waste with the United States, it will be counterproductive at best or worst. We will negotiate armscontrol agreements from that position of strength and confidence ive described. Those agreements are on the others of the coin which is what i would like to tell talk about next. In time, well talk about President Bidens very longstanding commitment to nonproliferation objectives and the long experience in being a leader in the space. He said, we must invent new approaches and foster new International Operation to meet changing threats. Those words only ring more true today. Under the president s leadership, we are advancing three new approaches to strengthen armscontrol and nuclear wrist bid there is wrists. We are exchanging bilateral discussions with russia and china without preconditions. Before i jump into this, let me just step back and say without preconditions, and without accountability, we will still hold Nuclear Powers accountable for reckless behavior and we will hold our adversaries accountable for upholding Nuclear Agreements. For example, we will continue to notify russia with major strategic exercises. There are preexisting Nuclear Agreements. Any response of russias new start, suspending daytoday notifications to russia that are part of this treaty. These steps will guarantee that russia does not see benefits from a treaty they refuse to abide by, and the principle of reciprocity, of key tenant of strategic armscontrol is upheld. It will also demonstrate to russia of returning to full compliance, including receiving detailed information with a pressing for officials. But by acclaiming a new start, we will it here to a central limit with russia, indicating a willingness to continually limiting Strategic Forces through 2026. We agree. It is and neither of our interest to embark on an openended competition with strategic Nuclear Forces, and we are prepared to stick to the central limits as long as russia does. Rather than waiting to resolve all of our bilateral differences, the United States is ready to manage Nuclear Risks and develop a post2026 armscontrol framework. We are prepared to enter into those discussions. Now, the type of limits the United States can agree to after this treaty expires will worse be impacted by the size and scale of the nuclear buildup. That is why we are also ready to engage china without preconditions. Competition can be managed and it will not fear into conflict. It is our hope that among the topics on the table for diplomatic discussions, beijing can include substantive engagement with nuclear issues. That could benefit the security of both of our countries and the security of the entire world. Next, the United States is willing to engage in a new multilateral armscontrol efforts. Including the security council. United states, russia, china and france. We are under no allusions that the armscontrol measure we believe it is possible, and as you know, four of the five Nuclear Powers are, with some exceptions, already d de facto committed to transparency and restraint in their Nuclear Policies imposters. The u. S. , the u. K. And france have also all demonstrated commitment repeatedly to responsible behavior. And, some of the p5 Nuclear Agreements with each other, for example, the u. S. And russia having a Ballistic Missile launch notification as i mentioned before. So did russia and china. But these agreements are limited and piecemeal. We can do more. The p5 provides an opportunity to manage nuclear risk and arms race pressures through a mix of dialogue, transparency and agreements. For example, a Missile Launch notification regime is a straightforward measure that is simply common sense. It is a risk of misperception and calculation in times of crisis, and we could potentially build more momentum towards further measures to manage nuclear wrists and arms racing. For maintaining a loop for Nuclear Weapons, to establishing a crisis communication channel among the capitals, to commit to the policy, doctrine and budgeting, to setting up guardrails for managing the interplay between nonnuclear strategic capabilities and Nuclear Deterrence, these are all areas where we could take further steps in a multilateral contacts this will help the nice states set the norms in short the values of the nuclear era. We are already making progress, including across every major multilateral body that seeks to limit nuclear or wmd risks. The nonproliferation treaty review conference. The conference on disarmament. A Bilateral Convention across all forums with results based discussions. We are ensuring we are fit for the threats we face today and tomorrow. For example, the fielding of weapons and emerging technologies that will create new and interconnected and unpredictable escalation pathways. We are working to establish new guardrails. Especially in space and cyberspace. Of course, with the advent of artificial intelligence, this entire picture becomes more complex and challenging and requires new kinds of approaches we have describing throughout the speech. The approach we are looking at takes into account technologies and tools that could include a potential conflict. Like ai enable systems. As the president says, we are making sure that we are leading not just by an example of power, but by the power of our example. That is why we have committed to conduct not conduct destructive direct antisatellite missile testing, and we are encouraging our allies and competitors to do the same. Its why we put forth principles for responsible behavior in space and principles for the use of ai in the military domain. Both of which, we are actively promoting an international forms. Let me close with this. 60 years ago, the president spoke to our nation in the sp

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