Bank of south sudan, picking up the pieces economically when this is all done will be much, much harder if we pull that support out now. So i do think that its important and imperative that Development Assistance continue. That the modalities be examined. That the strategies be updated as the situation changes. But that we keep the commitment to the people of south sudan and not harm them further. And one last point. The building leverage is critical. Thats what weve got to be looking for all the time. The aid doesnt i agree. The aid doesnt make a big difference to these guys. But it does make a big difference to the people of south sudan and to the building of institutions in the long run. Pulling that away now would really undermine the longterm stability of the place. Our leverage i think should focus on individual culpability. The targeting sanctions, prosecution of people who are found to be committing or planning atrocities and patterns of atrocities. The additional leverage comes if we work much more closely and transpare transparently. Collectively pressure the parties when there are key point moments that there needs to be a push. Again, i just view a very high level white house to state house in beijing engagement in south sudan to be a critical thing to do right now in order to show that united front internationally to the parties that were really going to be pushing for peace, and those that undermine peace are going to have some kind of particular sanction. Is it your assessment that china is willing to step up to the plate in that regard . Not as publicly as us. But their interests are much deeper in terms of National Security than ours are, and so lets figure out and i think that the good news is that our interests in terms of what the end game is line up very clearly with china. So lets take advantage of that moment. It doesnt happen off globally and figure out how we can more deeply work with them. Thank you. Thank you. One last question on that issue that mr. Pendergast mentioned about looking for leverage and targeting sanctions of those human rights violations, since youve been intimately involved until very krecently. Do you view that as among others a good leverage point . I think its going to be extremely important in another way. I think personally in the process over the next few years of writing a new constitution and laying a new foundation, that that creates the basis for eliminating from future power a lot of people who are responsible, so whether its in the process of prosecution or some other kind of commission, a lot of people who are very guilty of the kind of terrible violations should not be part of a new government after 2015. And i think that is one of the outcomes that we should see. Well, with the thanks of the committee for your invaluable testimony, i expect that the african subcommittee as well as the full committee will lend continuing attention to the challenges in south sudan, and the leaders on all sides need to recognize that reality, not a singular hearing at a we will look at economic in equality. Easternstart at 9 00 with a live coverage on cspan 2. Also monday at the brookings institution, paul ryan. His remarks at 4 00 eastern on cspan 3. , gob, a discussion about potential global press had this year and including syria. Thats coming up, a discussion threatstential global this year including syria. Later, washington journal with your calls and the headlines. A look at potential threat from a report by the council on Foreign Relations including the syrian civil war, violence in afghanistan, and north Korea Nuclear program are some the top priorities. This runs about one hour and a half. Let me remind everybody that this meeting is on the record. We want to do this efficiently and let you know that the video and audio will be available on the website. It is my pleasure to introduce the panelists. You have their complete bios on the roster for todays meeting. Let me introduce them officially for those people who are watching via videotape. Dr. David gordon, who has had a distinguished career. He served as chairman of the National Intelligence council and director of policy planning at the state department to read department. Thes head of research at eurasia group. Have just released a report. I believe you can find the eurasia report at eurasia. Net. Every time im with david here, i have to say he was my senior thesis advisor when i was undergraduate and i am deeply indebted for him to inspire me to this career. I hope i have made you proud. Yes, you have. To my right is mark schneider. Mark has held numerous positions in government. Deputy secretary of state and state department chief of the office of analysis and future planning. He has been at the International Crisis group for 13 years. He is quite a veteran of these issues. Finally, we have the senior fellow for conflict prevention. He has held senior positions at the u. S. Institute of peace, stanford university, and the brookings institution. He has written or edited 10 books on world affairs. Are we going to go left to right . Left to right. Dr. Gordon. Thank you very much. It is a great pleasure to be here. It is great to have a good discussion about what is going to happen in the coming year. Let me start with some of the themes at the global, macrolevel. Well work down to more specifics. As we look at the world in 2014, the striking thing is that the set of issues that dominated global macro concerns since the financial crisis has begun to retreat. The risks of another round of really bad financial instability and that has been the focus of a lot of what we have done analytically since 2008. Thats retreated. Take on a different characteristic, not a financial risk per se, but much more of a divergence and the end of emerging markets as any kind of a unified asset class. Um, but at the geopolitical level, at the geopolitical level thats really where we see all sorts of uncertainty here. And our top risk for the year really has to do with americas troubled alliances. And i think that 2013 was a year that set in motion some very, very, very powerful forces that serve to weaken the perception of commitment by the United States in the eyes of American Allies around the world. And i think that the two main events here one was really an event, the other was a slow rolling out. But i think the first was the snowden affair and the whole set of consequences around the affair itself, but also the uncertainty with which the administration has dealt with what happened with snowden. Are they backing nsa . Are they not backing nsa . Whats important here, whats not. The lack of a Strategic Response by the administration. And i think in particular this is really this has really put a huge risk on what had been a growing relationship between the u. S. Government and hightech firms on cyberSecurity Issues, on counterterrorism issues, that that was mutually beneficial, but the, i think the trust factor there is gone in the part of the private sector. I gave a speech two weeks ago just before the holidays to a group of Silicon Valley ceos, and the animosity, the an moss the city towards the obama animosity towards the Obama Administration on the handling of these issues was absolutely stunning to me. Second, i think, the second driver here was the vacillation around syria. And, again, its less of an outcome. Its less of what happened p in syria and more about the process of setting up red lines, driving what looked like a runup to a military action. And, again, the lack of consultation with allies and the lack of a Strategic Focus here. What was the president trying to do. And i think when allies, frankly, hear president obama talk about syria as a Foreign Policy success, they wince. They wince. So, you know, for a lot of relationships here these things are thorns, right . For canada, for the u. K. , even for japan a little more serious. But for a lot of other allies, for, you know, particularly u. S. Alliances this the middle east in the middle east, if for a lot of countries in asia, in the pacific they really raise questions on the reliability and the durability of security guarantees. And where is is this all, where is this all headed . So this uncertainty about the role, whats the Obama Administrations strategy, what are its priorities . I think this was reinforced, frankly, on the trade side with all of the buildup around the Transpacific Partnership and closing the Transpacific Partnership. And, again, the administration sort of saying, well, its the Congress Role to get trade Promotion Authority which flies in the face of all of the Prior Experience where administrations have gone and made requests and made compelling cases. I worked on the hill when we did the u. S. canada mexico. And, you know, president clinton set up a war room in the white house around this. Thats how you get big trade bills passed. Theres been nothing of this. So i think that, thats the first. The second theme here if its u. S. External and uncertainty, i think the second big driver is china internal. And its really driven by the fact that the new, the new chinese leadership, the new chinese leadership is very focused on reforming domestically, getting china to a more stand bl economic sustainable Economic Policy. This is something that as a close observer of chinese Economic Policy for 20 year, its stunning to me that in the last ten years for all of the talk about reform and the significance of reform be, there was less and less and less big reform. And the new leadership clear hi of the view that time is not on their side, that unless they move quickly, they will not make the series of reforms that they need. But the reform process itself potentially very destabilizing. Lots of losers. And the political strategy that the chinese leadership has chosen to undertake this is recentralization and strengthening the core leadership of the communist party and undertaking a very, very, very sharp Anticorruption Campaign and setting up control mechanisms here, strengthening control mechanisms. So the irony of this is that its undertaking a liberalizing Economic Policy through leninist means. And, you know, is that going to work . Is we dont know. If it opportunity work, if it doesnt work, this will be a huge source of instability over the coming years. And i think president obama in his meeting with chinese president xi jinping was absolutely correct when he said that the United States has a huge stake in china successfully enabling these reforms. Third big theme globally was the reemergence of alqaeda from its, from the series of setbacks that it suffered cull culminating in the killing of usama bin laden. And here again i think the core geography here was syria and, in retrospect, syria and the whole syrian conflict is looking increasingly like afghanistan in the 80s and iraq in the last decade in terms of being a magnet for jihadists and a focal point for increasing extremism. Now, the new form of alqaeda is somewhat different from original alqaeda, that, in fact, the defining characteristic of alqaeda as an organization driven by usama bin laden was the focus on the far enemy. And jihaddism in alqaeda 2. 0 has gone local. The alqaeda brand is the brand, but its now very much a finish its all about local power, its all about Building Local alliances. In many ways alqaeda 2. 0 has more in common as an organization with hezbollah than it does with alqaeda, original add al qaeda. And so those are the big, those are the big macro themes. I want to close by focusing on the two regions that are of big concern and drawing a contrast between them. I think you have a lot of geopolitical risk and tension both in the greater middle east and in asia and in the pacific. Whereas in the middle east i think it both a lack of interdependence and you have a lack of any kind of a credible security energy. I think there still is a security guarantee for the gulf, for the straits, but the saudis, the others do not believe that, they have a whole conspiratorial view about iran and iranian relations. The middle east has not come close to hitting bottom yet. And that i think 2014, we are already seeing a refocusing of jihadists pressures into iraq. I think that will continue. Lebanon is on a very, very, very fragile tilt. This also spreads out into turkey. And so i think the middle east region is one where extraordinarily concerned about. I just wanted to throw these ideas out there as a big themes we can come back and talk about a lot more specific in the key with a. Thank you very, very much. Mark, your turn. Thanks a lot. Thanks to give me the opportunity to participate in what really is the third joint look at the dangers pressing against our living room windows. In the new year. And thank david s. Always resetting the strategic framework within which im going to focus on countries. 2014 is going to be a very hard year for those who make or conduct Foreign Policy in the Obama Administration. Also for the u. N. It will be another year, great response of those, fewer resources to meet the challenges and inevitably more criticism for failing to prevent or bring complex to an end. And in addition we shouldnt forget this. Most of the people in the countries where discussing it will be another year of misery, senseless violence, anger towards the west for failing to come to their aid, particularly anger at the United States. Crisis Group President oped next years was published for the fourth year in a row you want to emphasize the criteria that we used was for including some and excluding others, and its open to dispute was that these complex are where we have the greatest concern about the magnitude of the loss of life. In 2014, if they explode. Or with respect to ongoing conflicts, same concerns given the likelihood of increased intensity of this complex in the coming year, and where the capabilities or willingness of national forces, National Political forces, or the international community, to mitigate those dangers is lacking. Now, last year i cited some issues that i thought cut across the various countries, and i still think those are relevant. First the absence of the rule of law partially applied to protect citizens. Second, the inability of the state to ensure monopoly on the use of force, to protect the borders, enforce the law or protect its citizens. Third, it seems to me that we now have, and david touched on it, we have radical islamist extremist bring tears [inaudible] and essentially taking advantage of those internal battles for their own hand. Forth, again, applied the continuing absence of neatly packaged Peace Agreement in civil conflict for all the parties are at the table and all commit to the end to implementing those agreements. That simply does not exist. And, finally, effect i empathize last you that want to emphasize begin this year, none of these complex are contained within the borders of the named country. They all believe across borders, destabilize their neighbors and in many instances, their neighbors contribute to the continuation of those conflicts. Now, im not going to limit myself to the tender juicy in this list. One, im going to emphasize is that afghanistan, giving the immediate shortterm potential for extends of violence innovative elections in april next year. Clearly poses the threat of additional violence. And even more so if the elections replicate the election of 2005. But let me make a point that there are several which dropped off last years list and to some degree theres positive reasons for that. Kenya dropped off last years list in part because regional and International Diplomatic engagement in the run up to the recent election helped prevent the kind of ethnic cleansing that essentially cut the country apart six years ago. Second, pakistan didnt make the list this year because it successfully managed its first transition from one elected civilian government to another. And also because the new military chief seems to have shown some evidence of are willing to go after the pakistani jihadists and also to allow new our charisse efforts to build engagement with india to continue. Third, turkey dropped off the list as they seem to be holding ceasefire. And forth, the drc, extremely fragile, nevertheless the diplomatic strategy that was put together by Mary Robinson at the u. N. Plus feingold and lady ashton, in fact have managed to regional parties, put pressure on them in ways at very least dampen down the proxy confrontation and along with a more progressive military posture of monusco basically has taken down the in 23 and hopefully put controls on the other militias in eastern congo. There are however five new countries. That pose greater risk this year of widespread loss of life in 2014. Central africa republic. A number of displaced has grown from 180,000 in june to 400,000 in november, and a month later when i testified before the congress, 600,000 there today, a million. Simply the fact that even with the intervention of the African Union peacekeeping, the killing continues between christians and muslims, and the power struggle has not been handed. Second, i think we also have to focus on the reality that libya in this 2014 has the potential for additional violence across the border the militias roaming the country. The islamist, liberal conservative revolutionary Center Periphery divide. Bangladesh, the competition because back to the 1971 war of liberation. As you saw the elections on sunday, 22 turnout, substantial violence. Unfortunately, that looks like its going to continue. Honduras, murder capital of the world. Transnational cartels via gangs to participate in the illicit transport of drugs. 87 of all the cocaine coming to the