And that thats the answer to this problem. The challenge that we have in the world today is, you know, that its the world today. Its 2014. Ts not 1990, its not 1980. So isolating russia is not really something that the United States can do unilaterally. I mentioned the point about europerussia economic relations. But there is also china out there. And even if we were to succeed in bringing our china allies along with a strategy of isolating russia, isolating russia, in my view, basically pushes russia into far closer alignment with china than its in now. You start to see again major russian arms sales to china, and, you know, do we start to see Russian Support for chinas territory torle claims . Territorial claims . Then we have a new cold war and a potentially very dangerous one. I dont think we have a new cold war. I think we have a time when we take off the rosecolored glasses. The obama administering has been more slisstuss of our adversaries than our allies. We have had a misguided view of putin and in syria and a lot of people around the world. We have to understand we do not share this community of shared values in which we are one among equals and just remind people they want to be on the right side of history, they dont want to be 19th century, they want to be 21st century, and somehow they are going to come along to our way of thinking. We have different adversaries that have different interests. If we realize that, we can expand the freedom of the world. Gentlemen, one last question. We have like 30 seconds. Which way is ukraine going to go . Cliff . I think ukraine is going to be split one way or another. Look, if crimea stays in russian hands, it is split. Beyond that how much putin decides to take and how much he succeeds in taking, it is largely in his hands and not ours, but well see. Paul . Crimea, i think, is probably lost. But i think the loss of crimea drives the rest of ukraine much more firmly toward the west over time. We need our european allies really to step up to the plate to help to make that happen. And also, we need to be there too. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Please, give them a hand. Washington journal continues. Host we are joined more on the situation in ukraine from washington journal. His is 45 minutes. Essentially what they are going to be asked is do they want to be part of ukraine, or do want to join the russian coalition. They are largely russian speaking, and there is a large part of the population that has traditional ties to russia. More than 40 of the population is ukrainian, and more than 12 f the population why was this seen as a big deal for the United States and russia . It is a big deal for the United States, because the United States has upheld eritorial integrity. To have a vote where they assert adverse to ukraine. In russia, russia has also been great believer in National Sovereignty. It itself is a multieye ethnic population and would not want that floating around the Russian Federation. In this case you have historic ties and whats happened in ukraine in the last few weeks has decided that it wants to support crimean sovereignty in this instance. You heard the president say that this vote is illegal. If they were to break away, thats a violation of International Law. Whats the law . Well, there is the treaty. The u. N. Charter is recognized as the sovereignty, article 2, it is also a violation of the hell sinky act of 1975 and it is a violation of the moslem of understanding signed in 1974 where by in order to have ukraine remove its Nuclear Weapons, russia, the United States, and several other countries recognized the sovereignty of ukraine and included sovereignty of crimea. Crimea has certain independence within ukraine but nevertheless of s a constituent part ukraine and no one has recognized the right for it to secede. Peter baker writes they want to break away from a country they consider hostile. The Central Government cries foul. With the help of a powerful foreign mill trirks they have succeeded in severing ties. The secession drove a deep wedge between the United States and russia that soured discussions for years. Moscow saw it as an infringement on sovereignty. 15 years later, the former cold war rivals again find themselves at odds, but this time they have effectively switched sides. Well, the circumstances are different than what happened in kosovo in early 2000. What happened in kosovo was a mass violation of human rights by serbia. Event that end seceded the United States recognizing kosovo. The United States asserted when it recognized kosovo that this was not a precedent. Many countries chose not to recognize kosovo as an independent country, notably spain, because it too has ethnic populations it does not want to bleak break away. So the question of National Sovereignty is one of those gray areas of International Law. It depends on the circumstances usually. Both sides can assert either side, it turns out, and fight under International Law. What is glearg in this case is glaring in this case is whats happened in crinmea is not an Immediate Reaction to Human Rights Violations or a structured vote but a hurried operation. Host lets show viewers what president obama had to say thursday when he talked about the steps necessary to resolve it. The proposed referendum on the future of crimea would violate the ukrainian constitution and violate International Law. Any discussion about the future of ukraine must include the legitimate government of ukraine. In 2014 we are well beyond the days when borders can be redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders. While we take these steps i want to be clear there is also a way to resolve this crisis that respects the interests of the Russian Federation as well as the ukrainian people. Let international monitors into all of ukraine, including crimea, to ensure the rights of all ukrainians are being respected, including ethnic russians. Begin consultations between the government of russia and ukraine with the participation of the International Community. Russia would maintain its space with crimea provided it provides by agreements and respects ukraines sovereignty. The world should support the people of ukraine as they move to elections in may. Thats the path of deescalation. Senator kerry is engaged with all relevant parties, including russia and ukraine, to pursue that path. If this violation of International Law continues the United States and our allies and the International Community will remain firm. Meanwhile, we think it is best to reaffirm the sovereignty of our allies in Eastern Europe and support the people of ukraine. Host your reaction to what the president had to say there. Guest that is a reasonable path. Unfortunately mr. Putin wont share that path. Mr. Putin has a different take on what occurred in ukraine. He believes this is an illegitimate government in ukraine. They have stories about fascists in government and so forth. He has presented a different picture than the reasonable picture that president obama has put forward. You can imagine what their phone calls are like when they sit down and talk about these issues because clearly they approach this from two dramatically different perspectives. President obama has put together a reasonable middle ground at this time it is not acceptable to president putin. Host in a response to u. S. Sanctions over Ukraine Russia may freeze weapons inspections out of moscow. Russia broadened its war of words saturday when the ministry of defense said it may consider stopping inspections of its Nuclear Weapons in response to threatened sanctions from the west. What are they talking about here . Guest they are talking about the inspections that currently occur at regular intervals of Nuclear Weapons. I think russia is simply trying to scare the west and the United States from introducing any sort of sanctions. They keep increasing the rhetoric in terms of what those sanctions would mean in terms of e. U. Russian relations, and they are basically trying to get in front of this issue and basically compel the United States and the e. I. Not to uppingsnks sanctions and the rhetoric. Host good morning. Our caller. Caller putin is a dictator. Hes going to take all of ukraine. He attacked the republic of georgia in 2008, and hes thrown the gauntlet to germany. Germany now has control over yugoslavia and it no longer exists. You are getting realedy for a new version of world war ii world war i, and we are looking at world war iii. Putin is a dictator. Hes doing what dictators always do, hes reclaiming his empire. Clame chamberlain is doing nothing. We have to get ready because ere getting ready for thermonuclear world war 36r iii. You raised the issue of world war i. We are marking the 100th anniversary of the beginning of world war i. The history shows how unintended events and small events can escalate into major global war. This event does not need to do that. Obviously the process will continue to get more dangerous as crimea pursues this referendum. At the present time i dont think we should still be trying to find a diplomatic answer even if the Diplomatic Options are dwindling. Host doug in massachusetts. Democratic caller. Hi, doug. Caller your guests cannot be unaware that last week there were reports in the British Press of a leaked telephone conversation between the e. U. Foreign minister and the estonian ambassador that the 88 people that were slaughtered in stung dent square were which by westernbacked asian provocateurs. We are not hearing anything about this in the western press. If you can give me an answer about that, i would appreciate that. Guest a lot of the people quoted in this story have ultimately denied what was quoted in the press. So there is a rumor floating around about the role of snipers and potentially western support of snipers. There has been no other hard evidence provided. It is merely speculation. And until such time as the story is confirmed it remains very much in the area of speculation. Host howard, republican caller. Good morning. Can i take just a moment to Say Something about your ability to work with the cspan audience. You are incredible. I have been following you from your first days. You have blossomed. , you are a talent. I read a little bit in the wall street journal. I put it out there that its been some very great callers this morning, very knowledgible people, in the most part. The idea is to go after the ol ygarchy of russia. Censor them and stop their ability to do business in the west. And the oligarchy will say were not dealing with this. Reins e to pull your back, mr. Putin. Host conned leezia rice writes the immediate concern must be to show russia that similar moves will not be tolerated and at ukraines territorial boundaries are sacrosanct, and saying that that matters to the russian oligarchs. No doubt about it the russian oligarchs have been able to get a lot of their wealth outside of russia. It exists in western banks. A lot of that money happens to be located in london and western europe. So if you want to punish the strongest supporters of putin, the best way, many people argue with me, is to go after the wealth of the oligarchs and somehow limit their access to it. It is a bold step, but it is the one that clearly results in the greatest cries from russia. Again, when you listen to what putin and the russian ministries have been saying, they have been crying foul at any attempt of the u. S. To introduce sanctions, and these are sanctions against oligarchs and russians wealthy people abroad. It is a way by which to influence. Host pat, you are next. In new jersey seaport, new jersey, republican caller. Go ahead. Caller i would like to know what exactly we offered ukraine in the pude pest budapest moslem . In the budapest oslem randyum . Host the budapest memorandum does not require that we come to their aid. He memorandum recognizes ukrainian sovereignty working in conjunction with other commitments under International Law. It does not impose a military response by the United States, if indeed ukrainian sovereignty is not upheld in crimea. Host joining us now, from the Financial Times in ukraine to give us the latest on the ground. What is the situation like there now in ukraine . Well, it is very tense. Military going through the bases. You see a lot of demonstrations at the moment. A lot of proukrainian, and demonstrations coming out in the streets waving ukrainian flags and calling for peace, and hoach the annexation n hoping to stop the annexation of russia. Also the main government building is taken here in crimea. So you have a lot of opposing forces here. A lot of tension. Obviously the russian soldiers themselves have the grip on the peninsula. They have been barricading military bases and other facilities, and you know, thats sort of more and more examples of that that. There was a mention yesterday when they tried to send in military observers, and warning shots were fired by armed men at the border. They were forced to turn back. Essentially they would be considered selfdefense or whether they were russian troops. Suddenly you are getting the impression that the russians are tightening their grip helped by the sort of Paramilitary Forces which are recruited from the black sea fleet and from the local russian population. Host is there violence right now . Guest there have been troubling attacks on journalists which is obviously causing a lot of ripples. A crew was attacked by the selfdefense forces and their equipment was stolen. There have been a few nasty incidents at checkpoints which have been appearing all over the place. The atmosphere is becoming a little fraught. But obviously if you drive around, i was out and about today, and the roads are pretty quiet, really. Was going to a city near one of the main crimean sort of opulation centers. They make up about 12 of the population sms they are very, ry strongly opposed to the russian invasion. And there were a lot of demonstrations around. Local women coming out into the streets waving banners and sort of in favor of peace, in favor f peace in crimea and ukraine. Host where are you in crimea . It is sort of bang in the middle of the peninsula. T it is sort of the main population here. Is simferopol, which is the russian lead space, to the west of here. The the east you have closest town to russia, and thats where the russians are trying to build a big bridge so hey can control the peninsula. Host are you seeing there is more of a Russian Military presence there than before . Not in simferopol itself. I think the Russian Military is felt more around the military bases. In simferopol there is a military base. For here, it is more , sort of e forces colorfully dressed Russian Forces from an area in russia close to crimea. Here to sort of protect the ethnic russian population here. Host what are you waiting for in the coming days . Guest well the referendum will be next sunday. There is obviously a lot of preparation for that. Although everyone feels that the whole thing is being done in a bit of a hurry. Normally for an event of this kind, you would need a lot more preparation, but it is all being done on the fly. Now it is happening on the 16th. Which doesnt give people much time to prepare. And there will be a lot of tension in the buildup to that. A lot of people feel, even on the street, they feel it is unfair. They feel the people that made the decision to hold the referendum are not even the real leaders of crimea. They were sort of appointed with serious violations of parliamentary procedure. So it is the sense this has all been done in a hurry by people of Questionable Authority who have just sort of cobbled the thing together, and they want to rush through a flawed referendum which will then lead to the nexation of crime ra by crimea by russia. The votes could be split, but i think the possibility is strong that it will be a rigged election. Because russia would like to install crimea as quickly as they can. Host is there any indication that the referendum vote will go away . Guest at the moment, it looks like it is going to happen. There is snog nothing stopping them from doing it. At the moment there seems to be much contact between the ukrainians and the crimean authorities. It feels a bit like a jugger naught hurdling along and picking up speed. I would be surprised if anything can be done in the next few days to stop the vote happening, in which case, you know, it does look like russia could be annexing this region very quickly. Host guy chazan from Financial Times thank you very much for your time. What was important for you to hear . Guest it is not a region under unrest, it is not a region where people are fleeing or suffering Human Rights Violations and so forth. So what guy was saying, it does show the rushed nature of this referendum. What is also interesting, he said there doesnt seem to be anything that can stop it. So the consequences of this referendum will be felt after wards, but they will be specific changes. What happens to crimea . Crimea gets most of its energy, water from ukraine. How much will russia have to spend in order to subsidize crimea and keep it going . There are reports of upwards of 3 billion a year. This will come at a time when russias economy itself is not depog so well, it is on