If you plan to live for nine more years, medicare, part a, the trust fund, is gone. Nd our calculations could be 30 cut and what is able to be paid out. I need a heart valve. Oh, by the way, going to be paid 0 less. Do you understand the role of what we are putting our seniors in. How many president ial appeds ave you seen, talked about this. I havent season this. Lets talk about the trust report. T was in the remember how we did it. Billen and d 114 moved it over and the dugs around here. Thought i we fixed around here. And with the money and its gone in 58 months. Ick, you and i were the most were the most articulate and the ways we could help our brothers nd sisters, to move into a participation and not hit a liff so in the future, might cost us, which deposit do it and now we are boat on the tread melment i have a question. Ap shows the mid Care Trust Fund some e stunning to think, Social Security thats stunning. Between 2021 and 2025 we are going to have the social go broke. Nd last time we fixed that in making the fixed zribblet by robbing from oldaged retirement, where are he with we going to rob where we have them oing bust within a couple of months . T is gsh look, the utility mailt driver of all these trust funds for everything around us growth. Economic where are the assumptions . It turns out to be much more complicated. And 016 and 4 knife 5 percent growth, we are going to be ok. I dont think its ever been done. And in this environment, when year,urth quarter of last we were at. 7. This year stands, they revised the last quarters numbers, that 15 will be the 0th year in a year without growth. If that turps out to be the case and go 10 years, it will be the first time in the midst of the nation that that that has happened. And then you try to have your conversation. You dont think the regulatory state affects us. There is great literature that says the tax hike that this body did for every dollar, a dollar as lost in Economic Growth and owed down our growth and costing us. And it could be in the trillions. You brought up the graph. Can can you explain the trust fund. We set ikert in 2011 up a team in our office and we actually grind out these numbers ap watch them and we do something when the reports come ut and a mazing group. N 2011, i har some of my staff laughing. In 2011. This was the chart. Whats the direction . The trust fund was to go grow and grow and grow. There was supposed to be more money. And we were telling the Financial Markets five years ago. Take a look when we look at the new market projection. If these trust funds are going to grow. I think the Social Security trust fund was supposed to sur vife. And we have taken off the numbers. This is the new number. We start to months, dip in and in 14 years and youll see that in the next hart and ahad to do our next projections, the trust fund is gone. You talked about how the trust fund works. The trust fund is and they dont think it works. It is real. And the accumulated the access accumulations. And we Major Overhaul ve taken moremon in social taxes. F you take it in you have 2 in left over. And now when people say it doesnt exist, its not true. You cant keep paper money in an an account. We inscress and the om the administration is allowed to invest is is u. S. Treasury. And most of the buildings in West Virginia and it is full of treasuries. You dont mind me calling you that. Carry you on. Mr. Schweikert it was helicopters, wasnt it . My calculations as of right now, it is under 2. 8 trillion of notes that have en given to the treasury notes. And the notes have gone into the fica taxes. It took us a while to find that number. We are payingures ourselves. That is part of the revenue and the the major trust funds. And paying 3. 1 trust funds. So we are paygo a fifth and still burning through our cash. Thats why this is up, to show you how different the number is in just this last august, how fast the numbers have moved. In we go back to 2011, we hought we were talking 2038. And could have been could have been mr. Bucks age. Mr. Schweikert we are afraid of it. But this is important. If there is someone out there he the right or left and getting they need to nd take the seriously. That becomes the most powerful thing. Horrible. Rs are the math doesnt work for it. Thn and it shows a dramatic goes into e and it deck a. And this mr. Williams happen. And and so forth. Mr. Mulvaney demavend of the president ial candidates, what their plan is, call or write our member of coming. I have gotten one. Have you gotten any . Amazing. Kert its i think zero. And i had this experience and mr. Perry hood this experience we we had well over 100 and had a discussion about it ap i had a individual go to the microphone and say i dont care about any grand kid, i want every dime. And part of the aweden laughed. And fabe that was an discussion where it was about your grandkids. You have to understand, the emotion of these numbers because of the growing of these benefits and the horrible economic rowth, this is no longer futer generations, this is us. I didnt relled you were so old. This slide shows mr. Schweikert our number is 030, 2031, Social Security trust fund is gone. What happens on that date . Mr. Schweikert your benefits are decreased, whatever that amount is on that time. Mr. Perry probably between 20 and 0 . Swigeswiring lets do it. The Social Security receive muse will be subto the whims. You might have one month where you are paygo out more. You also have no longer the interest receive now. 8 manneded you 2 point trillion, that is what is going into the trust fund. This is the dwubble whammy. And that is why you dont want to get near these numbers. Every day we get, and remember, my calculations are 22 months, we start to move in. We start eeding our seed corn and every day the calculations get more difficult. Giving a presentation like this and it was back during the first ryan budgets where we lked about raising the age slowly. And a gentleman said i dont want to work another 2, 3 years. M asking me to work an extra year and trip lets. Cant you do that . Will that fix things . That will go a long way. He got angry. And nobody explained him. And even angryier. It would be if we wait nother 20 years, you can never fix it. Mr. Schweikert its 14 years now. Look, im the proud father of an infant. When she reaches her peak earning years, her tax rates will be double what i pay. And thats already done. Weve already done that to our children. Youve got to understand the scale of what weve done. But doesnt she have the right to participate in some of the same earned benefits that we hope, actually, we should have earned, and hopefully will be there because were going to find a way to fix them . And its not like the left gets behind Television Cameras and screams at us or puts up Television Commercials of a paul ryan lookalike pushing grandma off the cliff, thats political rhetoric. Theyre basically pulling a scam on you. This is math. I know we get folks, i dont know if youve had them at your town hall, which will fuss at you and say, it doesnt feel right. I dont have a feelings button on my calculator. Ive said that over and over to try to make the point. If you want to us to protect your retirement future, you got to demand that we step up and do it and it can be done by a series of little things, i mean, the reality Social Securitys easy to fix. It just you can create a little board of policy. Some might be age, some might be certain folks with certain assets being opting out. Theres a whole series of really Creative Things you can do. Giving some options to young people. Because those who now are going to live in sort of the gig economy, the ability to put, you know, 50 cents every time they have a transaction, or using technology, using these supercomputers we all carry in our pocket. Will the gentleman yield . Many of our constituents hear from time to time, whether its the president , whether its people on the other side, frankly, the people on our side. Look, we are reducing the deficits. They hear this. If they dont come to your town hall meeting they say, well, the deficit is smaller, right . So thats good. Whats all this harry kerry about Social Security and debt and whats all the, you know, whats all the historyonics . Mr. Schweikert were going to get to that in a second. Understand how much the deficit has gone up this year. We have a slide somewhere here thats going to tell us that. And forgive me for one second. Can i ask the speaker, how much time do we have . The speaker pro tempore the gentleman has 12 minutes remaining. Mr. Mulvaney has zero time. Mr. Schweikert were ok with that. Well explain that procedure a little bit later. Ok, lets actually run through these. Lets use our last 12 minutes and get to exactly your point of where were at and whats been going on. This one i put up just especially for my friend who fussed and complained about this thing called sequestration. How it was the end of the world. Basically western civilization was going to be collapsed to its knees. Ok. What you see is the red is sequestration and the green is Discretionary Spending without sequestration. If you see the blue bars there, thats mandatory spending. Thats Social Security, medicare, medicaid, the new health care law. Interest on the debt. Other transfer programs. It explodes off the charts. If our friends who complained about sequestration so much cared, they would have talked about mandatory spending. The entitlement. But if you look, the differential between that red and green is tiny. And the fact of the matter is, this year and next year its actually gone. Hold on a second. I dont think you explained the green part of sequestration, as you can see it moves above the red line on occasion, on about 2017 there. That difference. Mr. Schweikert basically, lets look at 20162017. There is no sequestration. We increased our spending. We blew up the sequestration caps this last fall. And last year. We wanted to spend more money. So the one thing that was holding us back on discretionary spend something gone. But under the law, it actually comes back in 2018. So that little tiny differential you see on that chart between the red and the green, thats sequestration. Mr. Mulvaney would you like to wage ar guess as to the likelihood of that staying in law is . Mr. Schweikert its got to enrage us that you if really you about the country, would have the two conversations were demanding. Your willingness to change the tax code and the regulartory regulatory code. The things that help grow the economy. And two, how are you going to deal with the mandatory spending, the entitlements that are blowing off the charts . The bigger point of this slide is even with sequestration, you can see that its, first of all, not very different from the normal Program Spending that has absolutely nothing to do with the huge portion of spending, which is mandatory, which eclipses everything we do regardless. Mr. Schweikert yep. As mr. Mulvaney and i have been having a running conversation about how we put together a budget for this coming year, and one of the discussionses that weve been trying to calculate is, ok, they blew up some of the spending caps last year. It is what it is. But if they had paid for those increased spendings, with reforms in entitlements, that is something that goes on and on and on and multiplies out in the future. And actually theres a little bit to help our future does a little bit to help our future and save the entitlements. It has sort of a Multiplier Effect. Because it lives in perpetuityy in perpetuity. And its fascinating because some of us are trying to pitch that idea of give us a few things that we know actually have a Multiplier Effect in the future, as a way to start to deal with these numbers. The reason i put this chart up, this is the this is last year. And were just going to do this real quickly and well have this on our website and ill ask both of you if youre willing to do it. Youre at your town hall. You have the Group Walking in youre office demanding more money into your office demanding more money. That happens all day long. Every 15 minutes theres another meeting of another group that wants more money. And i will get groups that will come in and demand, saying, we want more money and, well, well, if you would just get rid of, um, foreign aid, well be just fine. And then you pull this board out and say, ok, you see the little red line there . Thats every dime of the state departments budget. Thats military foreign aid, thats foreign aid to israel, thats humanitarian foreign aid. Thats food aid. And all the embassies and their staff and this and that. T doesnt do anything. Its great rhetorical rhetoric. Its a shiny object. It does not do anything. Unless youre talking about Social Security, medicare, medicaid, other welfare programs, obamacare, interest on the debt, and understand, we are incredibly lucky. Interest on the debt this year was supposed to be somewhere in the 600 billion range. And our projection for 2016 budget is maybe about 260 billion. So, weve been really lucky. Thats the benefit of a weak economy. The only benefit of a weak economy. That i can find. Mr. Mulvaney its also the benefit of a totally accommodative Federal Reserve which sets the price of interest through things like quantitative easing, which is nothing more than printing money. They have unnaturally depressed Interest Rates, which depressed Interest Rates is nothing more than the cost of money. And one of the direct beneficiaries of that has been this body. Its been much easier for us to run up these huge deficits, which is the annual debt. And the overall debt. Simply because its essentially been free money for the last six or seven years. Mr. Schweikert would you agree that the cheap money, the artificial liquidity, has kept congress from doing what it knew it had to do in reforming the Entitlement Program . Mr. Mulvaney theres no question. At 15 trillion, 16 trillion of debt, roughly, ok, which is the debt, the public debt right now, youre talking about Interest Rates below 2 . Mr. Schweikert if you want to get geeky, its getting shorter because theyre going shorter on the weighted daily average. Theyre selling shorter and shorter. The first time Interest Rates spike, were we get mr. Mulvaney and the 40year rolling average is 60 . Thats what money normally costs the United States of america. About 6 . If you look at it over a generational length of time. If we regress to the mean, and end up with money costing us about 6 , youre talking about more than 1 trillion a year in just interest payments. Mr. Schweikert its coming. This goes back to my friend from pennsylvania, what you were commenting on. So what are we looking at this year . This year the year were in right now . Fuppingsally were going to be borrowing about functionally were going to be borrowing about 445 billion this year. And this was supposed to be one of the good years. Understand, the inflexion doesnt happen until 2018 when the debt starts to explode. This is one of the good years. Do you understand what 540 billion is . No one does. Thats a lot of zeros. ,000,000 a day. An hour. Illion but think of this. And my favorite one is when you, you know, its 1 million a minute. But its 17,000 a second. And understand, this goes up in nine years, it basically triples. This triples in nine years. So were borrowing stop breaking things. Were borrowing 17,000 a second and that number triples in nine years. So, how many of us, when were doing i threw these together because i figured wed have a little bit of fun here. So, were holding a town hall. And we get some of the groups that come in and fuss at us and say, well, i saw somewhere on some news article that said, if would you get rid of subsidies for fossil fuels, ok, first off, its depreciation, just like every business has. But lets say you took away that depreciation from the production of narling gas. And Oil Natural Gas and oil. And you took it all the way. Ok. Were borrowing functionally 1. 5 billion every single day. And you took it all the way, it would buy 12 minutes and 41 seconds of borrowing coverage a day. Theres 1,440 minutes in a day and you just came up with a way to cover 13 minutes. It shows you how fake many of these rhetorical things that we hear from the political class, particularly the left. So, lets actually take the next step. What about green energy . Did you know green energy has three times the subsidies of fossil fuels . But lets say you took every 36,700,000 a day that green energy gets. That buys you almost 35 minutes a day. So theres 1,440 minutes in a day and we just, by getting rid of those subsidies, you know, we took care of 12 minutes by getting rid of the tax deductions, the depreciation for fossil fuels, got rid of 35 minutes and 24 seconds, if you got rid of all renewable. My point is, much of the rhetorical gifts we hear from the president , from our friends n left, are completely fraud athematically. And we have to understand something very, very simple. Were borrowing more than a half a trillion dollars this year. And in 20 months the debt starts to explode. Mr. Mulvaney, when youve been in front of your audiences in south carolina, have you ever shown them the chart that this year and next year were supposed to be the good years. It was supposed to be fairly flat and then it explodes. Mr. Mulvaney ive been showing that chart since 2011 because the number has not changed significantly. When you and i arrived and served on budget together in 2011, we could have told people roughly what the deficit would have been this year. Because the projections have not changed. Mr. Schweikert and what happened between last august and now, that all of a sudden, remember, last year the deficit was about 150 billion lower than were going to run this year. Multiple things happened. We didnt come close to the Economic Growth we had built and modeled. The movement of our citizens into certain programs has been greater than expected and fewer velocity in, you know, we say unemployment is this but when we actually look at the actual t