A couple of members that are there blue dogs. You will see republicans losing a couple of committee chairs, some of John Boehners top allies. Like dave camp, the chair of the ways and means committee, whether you are seeing mike routers, the chair of the Intelligence Committee stepping down so, we are seeing a congress that is going to have a much steeper learning curve after 2014. There is an opportunity for leaders to help members get underfoot of these issues, really get under the hood of these issues, really understand how to run these committees, or there is an opportunity for Interest Groups to fill the knowledge gap. Host david wasserman, thanks very much for being with us. Guest thank you. Host we will turn our attention from house to the senate. We have two experts, two holsters pollsters. Afterakers airs cspans washington journal. The guest, jerry moran. We talked about kansas politics. We also checked in on the issue of money in politics. Clip] we have great candidates we have recruited and encouraged to run. We have candidates who can win in their state, not only a primary, but a general election. What is missing here . This was a significant, intentional aspect of what we tried to do. When i started the attempt to try to raise money for our candidates, or races even before we had candidates, it was hard to get them to get out their checkbooks. Governor romney did not get elected president. My take away from that is, what do we havee, something to market . Do we have candidates who appeal to donors . We will find out if that is true in the next 30 days. I dont go to bed worrying about what our candidates will say and what will be in the headline of the papers. If i cant sleep, im thinking about how are we going to make certain that those candidates have the necessary resources to win. I dont know that i like i certainly wouldnt like to brag about i dont like talking about how we have not raised the money of the senate, but it is a 30 million difference. How does that happen . One thing we dont have is president obama, michelle obama, who, on adent biden, night, can raise 1 million to 2 million, and have done it more than a dozen times for the Democratic Campaign committee. But you also have the momentum. The perception is that you guys will win. Donors try to front run the results, then they open their checkbook. I think weve had donors who have been skeptical. Im glad to hear you say that the perception is that republicans are going to win. Weve have that perception before and it didnt happen. I think republican donors are skeptical about one more time opening their checkbook. [end video clip] 2015 student can competition is underway. 100 prizes totaling 100,000 150 prizes totaling 100,000. Cspanneed to include programming, show varying points of view, and must be submitted by january 20, 2015. Grab a camera and get started today. Washington journal continues. Sundayrson our roundtable focusing on the senate races, featuring Stefan Hankin and Brian Nienaber. Abc news gets to the broader issue of what this campaign is all about. What is the theme, the narrative for the senate races . Guest thats a really good question. This is one year where it really depends on what state we are looking at. Going back the next election cycle, 2012, back to 2000 ex, there was a very clear momentum back to 2006, there was a very clear momentum. World. Ar, it is bizarro it looks like the republicans might lose the senate seat in kansas. And democrats not really looking to pick up anything anywhere. It is just defense across the board. It is one of those waking up after the election, and anything between certainly, republicans are going to pick up three seats. After that, it is anyones guess right now. I wouldnt be surprised if democrats held on by one seat or if republicans picked up seven seats. Right now, it seems like anything is possible. Host agree or disagree . Guest i think i disagree slightly. There is a broad the satisfaction with president obama, particularly on domestic issues, but there are a lot of republican candidates running with this general theme of change and doing better and that we will bring a different sort of system of governance to washington. I think you will see a lot of our candidates running across the board with this theme of we can do differently. Host give our audience a sense of who youre working for as a strategist and pollster. Guest i think weve got andner, ernst, mcconnell. Im not working personally on any campaigns. Bullishwe feel pretty about how it is going this year. Guest not working for any senate races directly, but we are tracking 10 different races and also doing work in maine, maryland, ohio, wisconsin, at various levels. Host let me share this headline from politico. Are these three senate races slipping away for democrats . Among those mentioned, Mary Landrieu and begich. Guest these are states that obama lost handily in 2012. These are very red states. Louisiana, arkansas, alaska, these are the toughest races that democrats are going to be having this year, just based on the demographics and the trends of what is happening in these states. Think as charlie cook has said, Susan Collins could lose the race in maine if she tried, but everywhere else, it is a tough race tough landscape for democrats. Kentucky is a little closer than some people might think, and george also is a little is a veryg, but it tough landscape for democrats this year. Host arkansas was the third race that politico was writing about. The former president , bill clinton, the first of four appearances. We will have live coverage of his remarks to rally support for mark pryor. Guest i think it is a sign of how tough this race has become for prior pryor. He came in in 2008 and had a lot of republicans were fortunate to get a strong candidate, one. F the good campaigns i think this will be one of the closest, most exciting races in the country. I am pretty bullish on cottons chances. Host this is a race still listed as a tossup, but a poll last week gave bruce braleys opponent the edge. Guest he may be doing better than what some of the public olds are showing. We will see what happens public polls are showing. We will see what happens. The republicans did themselves a lot of favors this year by the candidates that they got through the primaries are much more electable. We dont see any candidates that seem to be repeating what happened in missouri last time for delaware in 2010. That was one big hope for democrats, that we were going to get some nice candidates to run against. I think also, for a lot of these states, arkansas, louisiana, alaska, these are 2008 candidates. Much more favorable to democrats. There was much better turnout. Republicans dont have a great track record going back to 1980, i believe. Theyve only been three sitting democrats. I believe it is 12 republicans who have lost to democratic challengers. Historically, democrats have done well at defending these seats. We will see what happens in about four weeks. 202 5853881 is our line for republicans. 202 5853880 is our line for democrats. Romney at rest. Far from the scrum of the campaign trail, the former nominee reflects on the calls for his return. One of the ads put together by the chamber of commerce looks like this. [video clip] is ready to send a leader to washington who will demand fiscal responsibility. Thankfully, iowa conservatives have such a leader in joni ernst. Conservative, soldier, she has what it takes to turnaround the mess in washington. Toase send joni ernst washington. Host the Iowa Senate Race and where things stand, also mitt romney and this continued from we are are drumbeat hearing, at least in the media, of a possible 2016 bid. Side, shethe ernst has been a good candidate from the beginning. She is an outstanding candidate. She has hustled across the state. I think she is going to be a wonderful candidate and i suspect she is going to win in november. I read the article. He seems far less bullish about running for president. He reflects on it. Like any candidate, he could have been there. My phoebe my feeling from reading this is that he probably enjoys the scrum of being helpful with candidates. He was always generous with his time as a candidate. Chuck from charleston, virginia, on our line for democrats. Caller good morning. I wanted to ask the question of Brian Nienaber ask a question of Brian Nienaber. A marriageeadline issue splits gop. It seems like republicans are split into three camps. They say there is a small but growing number who favor legalizing gay marriage, hardcore faction that continues to denounce it, and a sizable group in between that seems to wish the whole issue would just disappear. Host we will get a response. Guest it does fairly characterize where the gop is. We are a big tent party. Gay marriage is certainly an issue where we have a social conservative side. Site. Is a religious we have a more religious side. We have a more libertarian side. We have a lot of voters who would rather us focus on the bigger issues of fiscal discipline, having a strong foreign policy, and let this be an issue that we decided more at the state level and in other ways. I think this is a fair characterization. I dont think we are going to see gay marriage rise to the promise it was in 2008 as an issue for voting. Host lets turn to patty in virginia. Caller i have a question for both analysts. I wanted to know what you thought would be the Biggest Surprise in the senate the morning after the election. Host good question. Theres always one. Guest if im going to pick one, i will say that grimes pulls it off in kentucky. That would be my pick. Host how confident are you in that prediction . Guest coin toss right now. The numbers show it could happen. Both candidates grimes, in our numbers, has a slight advantage on people who are bullish on voting for her. Mcconnell is very unlike. Th unliked. The fact that the Senate Minority leader has such a fight on his hands speaks to how voters feel about him. Grimes has been running a very good campaign. Augh to unseat someone in leadership position, but that would be my pick for a big surprise. Host can you envision a scenario where the public is pick up the senate and Mitch Mcconnell still loses . Guest the road of politics is littered with the bodies of people who underestimate Mitch Mcconnell. Hes a formidable candidate who has proven time and again he knows how to find a way to win. Host a new ad released just days ago from the Alison Grimes campaign. [video clip] im honored to approve this message. What is being a senator about . One candidate believes it is about getting new jobs, good jobs, getting middleclass kids nobody can tell me it is not a senators job to create jobs, and i choose alison because she will work with people of both parties to do what is right for you. Alison for senate. Host by the way, dvr alert. October 13, week from monday, 8 00 eastern time, the first and only debate in that Kentucky Senate race. We will have it for you live on cspan and on cspan radio. Thats a week from monday, october 13. For allowing them us to carry that debate for the rest of the country to see what is happening. North carolina, on the republican line, good morning. Caller good morning. I have a small question on the economy. Democrats are bragging on how well it is doing. That would be the 1 in this country. Everybody knows that wall street aint in mississippi. Letst comes to that, really look and see who are the rich and affluent in this country. And in the senate races here in north carolina, kay hagan is all for middle eastern oil instead of oil out of this country. So, republicans, just remember when it comes time, tom gillis is your man. He will be the one to fix this they. Thank you this state. Thank you, cspan. My homehe knock against state aside, this is sort of back to your original question. It is interesting how it is manifesting itself on both sides. Someoneteresting for from the republican line to be using the 1 line that tends to be more the democratic vote line from 2012. We are seeing this in the polling numbers, at least in our numbers. Even though we see unemployment time,low 6 for the first some 250,000 jobs created last month even if the numbers are saying that things are heading in the about people are hesitant jumping on the bandwagon about feeling good about things you we see it in focus groups, too. Even though things are Getting Better for them, they feel like they should be happy about it, things dont feel quite right. That seems to be happening just about everywhere we go, even from an economic standpoint. Even if they are doing ok, they are not feeling bullish about how things are going, and that certainly reflects itself in the data. Host Stefan Hankin is a graduate of the university of massachusetts, founder and president of lincoln park strategies. Brian nienaber is a graduate of purdue university, a veteran of capitol hill, current Vice President of the tarrance group, and a republican pollster. We will go to michigan. Another Big Senate Race in that state. Good morning, democrats line. Caller i would like them to talk about why they are not his cussing governor christie i all theke stefan and democrats to talk about why they are not discussing grover norquist. We need to worry about government regulations. The government is not doing enough about ebola, about isil. The government needs to be doing more. Why are we as democrats not talking about the fact that the republican pledges of no new taxes are damaging what government can do . Host thanks for the call. Guest im sure this will light up my inbox with lots of email from democrats. We were talking about the negative on republicans. Going back to 2006, outside of obama in 2008, there hasnt really been a positivefocused campaign. Everything has been about how bad the republicans have been. Vice versa, most of the republicans, going back to 2010, has been about how bad obama is. This is why we are seeing voters throw their hands up in the air, outside of the hardcore base on both sides. They are sick and tired of hearing how bad the other side is. Favorability is in the low to mid 40s. He is doubling up democrats and republicans in congress. Obamas numbers arent great, but i would rather have his numbers than whats happening with democrats and republicans in congress. People are throwing up their hands, sick of both sides. I think it what will break through is a positive vision for for democrats sing stand and what control of congress , versus focusing on someone like grover norquist. Host at this one, do you sense it will be a wave election at this point, do you sense it will be a wave election . Guest i think this feels a lot like this is sort of the beginning of a wave. You see candidates doing better. Particularly in the senate, it seems like that wave comes much later in the cycle. This seems to be the time when we are seeing candidates take ahead and close people out. I think we will have a pretty good wave in both the house and the senate of picking up seats. Host do you agree or disagree . Guest i think it will be a little bit more in the tossup category. If democrats end up with 51, 46, 47, it wouldnt surprise me, but it is hardly a wave from what we are seeing. If you look at the governors races, in a typical way the election, from top to bottom, one party or the other benefits. Ts all over the map democrats are struggling in massachusetts, maryland, the pga dgaputting money the is putting money behind the democratic candidate. I see this more as a tossup election in the sense that there is anger towards incumbents across the board. Host we have an interview coming up with jerry moran on newsmakers nwewsmakers. Heres is what he had to say about his home state. [video clip] there is a race, no doubt about it. You used the word independent and talked about whether or not a democrat would be on the ballot. A democrat has not been elected to congress from kansas since 1932. We are a republican, conservative state, and the trend is that way. Democrats saw their candidate probably wasnt going to win wasnt going to win, encouraged him to get off socalled, and then a independent could win the general election. The independent was a democrat candidate against senator roberts in 2008. The socalled independent is a contributor to president obama financially, a contributor to harry reid. The word of independent has some appeal to people. The reality is this is not an independent. This is someone who is pretending to be an independent to try to overcome the problems that a democrat would have running for the united dates senate from our state United States senate from our state. Host we are seeing that narrative, Brian Nienaber, in some ads now in kansas. Guest he makes the point very compellingly, that this is a democrat masquerading as an independent. His consultants are democrats. He has given to democrats. Host but he voted for mitt romney in 2012. Guest so did other democrats. When you look at the totality of people who he is going to have around him on his staff and advising him on his campaign, i think he is certainly a democrat. This is the too, one time that republican should get behind moving rooting for the kansas city royals. Dvr listings in our society. The kansas city suburbs is where roberts needs to win this race. They will have a great opportunity to run ads that everybody will say because they will be watching the games. Getou are republican, behind the royals if you want roberts to win it. Host it was a latenight for those watching the game. Caller im confused as to how the democrats can lose 90 of it has been traced to democrat donors. Democrats are like swimming in money from poor people, who cannot get out of the tax system like the general electorate who can get out of the tax system by building a bunch of worthless, unworking windmills. So, i dont know how it is possible that democrats can lose the elections. Host we will get a response, Stefan Hankin . Guest im not sure exactly what he is going for on that. Crossreferences there. I talked about this before. Whats happening. One of the reasons why democrats are going to be having a tough time, the states that we are dealing with, the fact that we are defending more seats than republicans, most of the tossup seats in red states. This all looks in 2016 all flips in 2016. It becomes much more favorable to democrats k democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 bets republicans will de