Transcripts For CSPAN Washington This Week 20150329 : vimars

Varsity of al qaeda. Look how well they are doing now. I want to leave you with us. Remember correspondents, if isis can do it, so can you. Good night. Thank you. [applause] thank you calpine. Im sorry, that was my old Wishful Thinking script. Thank you, aasif mandvi. That was fantastic. Before we leave, i cant leave without exposing my gratitude. My amazing team on capitol hill, kelly odonnell, luke russert, and alex mo. [applause] i want to thank kinser glenn, tony kaplan, and the countless others of the peacock who make me proud to be part of the nbc team. Thank you to Allison Jaffe from the d. C. Comedy club forgetting our entertainment. Thank you to the marriott for hosting. And last but not least, she told me not to do this. I want to think someone who inspires me to be a better person, my beautiful and amazing wife jillian. You are my rock. You are the reason i am here today. I love you. [applause] it really has been an honor. I am deeply humbled to have been able to represent all of you. It is time to pass the gavel. It is my honor to hand the gavel to the chair for next years dinner cspans fred haverstock. Take it away. [applause] one thank you for putting this together. We are going to wrap it up by saying we would like to see you at the after party it is sponsored by comcast. With that, we are adjourned. [applause] [indiscernible] [inaudible] [inaudible] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] next, a look at some of the conflicts in the middle east. After that, tom cotton discusses his priorities. The Senate Confirmation hearing for sally gates. On newsmakers, New Hampshire Republican Party chair Jennifer Horn and jeff coffman discussed their roles in vetting president ial candidates. They will also talk about preparations for 2016, the candidate circulating, and which issues and groups to watch in their states. Newsmakers on cspan. This sunday on q a, eric larson on his new book, dead wake. The story gets complicated when the question arises, what ultimately happened to the lusitania. Why was it allowed to enter with out escort, without the kind of detail that could have been provided to captain turner but was not. This has led to some interesting speculation about was the ship set up for attack by churchill or someone. It is interesting. I found a smoking memo. I found no smoking memo. Lets let the lusitania go into the sea, nothing like that. Sunday night at 8 00 eastern and pacific. Now a discussion on the conflicts going on in the middle east. This is just under an hour. Host our next guest of the mornings Michael Rubin. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise institute, talking about all the things going on in the middle east. Michael rubin, as we start, everyone is waiting to see initially what might happen with iran when it comes to its Nuclear Program. Where do we stand as far as negotiations are concerned . Guest right now it looks like there could be a preliminary agreement this week. What is important to remember is when it comes to the joint plan of action, what we are trying to achieve is an agreement about how to have an agreement, so this is not going to be the end of negotiations, rather the end of the beginning, rather the beginning of the end. Host what do you mean . Guest if there comes a resolution tomorrow, what it is supposed to do is create a fame framework as to what all sides want to see in the final agreement. The number of centrifuges. How long an agreement would last. All of the the basic details but the technicalities would need to be worked out. Host how have the iranians responded . How forthcoming have they been as far as meeting the requirements the United States wants . Guest well, the iranians have adhered, for the most part, to what has been outlined in the joint plan of action. The criticism in the joint plan of action, however, is it was really only one slice of the entire pie. At the same time, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been complaining that the iranians have not been adhering to the commitments made to them, especially when it comes to possible military dimensions of an Iranian Nuclear program. Host for the five countries or so that are involved in this bullet point what they want. And the timeframe they want it. How long this agreement might last. Guest ultimately, if you put five countries in a room, you will get five or six different opinions. We need to recognize that all countries, six countries, have radically different opinions. What the americans want is for a resolution to with concerns with , regard to Irans Nuclear breakout ability, their ability to enrich uranium to levels that would be much greater than that needed for an energy program. The russians and the chinese want to see in some extent the iranians one Economic Relief in all of this want economically can all of this. This began in 2005 when the board of governors found iran to be in noncompliance with its Nuclear Safeguards agreement. The question is how you want to bring iran back into compliance, address the concerns in six unanimous, or nearunanimous subsequent United Nations resolutions. Host and i suspect if the deal comes through, how do you do oversight to make sure they are holding up their end of the bargain . Guest this is why the socalled sunset clause has become controversial. The sunset clause the idea that after 10 years, for example, the sanctions regime, and so forth, all the additional cinches will be listed lifted and iran can become a state again. The iranians are saying we will start with the day of the signature. In 1991, when the South Africans in 1991, when the South Africans gave up their Nuclear Program, they provided the International Atomic Energy Agency with 20 years of data with regard to its material so that the iaea could certify that everything is accounted for. The iaea has complained that by not providing this data, it will make declarations of they have given up the military program and possible. Host explain to us we have heard the lifting of sanctions which i think iran wants, versus the suspension of sanctions. Talk about what those terms mean and what is important in this discussion. Guest first of all, one of the important things to remember is there are different kinds of sanctions. Ironically, because people think as republicans has more hawkish it was under bill clinton where you have the toughest sanctions on iran in 1995 1996, for example, executive orders, which were unilateral, and when Oil Companies shifted operations to european subsidiaries or partners, we had a controversy with extraterritorial sanctions placed on european firms. On top of that, you have these Un Security Council resolutions that ban aspects of Irans Nuclear trade, and iran wants to get this lifted so they can get back to developing their economy. Before negotiations began, iran s economy shrank 5. 4 . On top of which, you have had a rapid decline on the price of oil, which will make it hard for iranians to make payroll. Host Michael Rubin is our guest. Talking about issues in the middle east, iran being one of them. Lets hear first from eric in texas. Youre on with Michael Rubin. Caller hello, am i on . Host you are on. Caller ok. The people that killed the most isis fighters make me the most safe. The people that kill the least isis fighters make me least safe. People that do not kill any isis fighters do not make me safe at all. The people that give the speeches in march do not do anything at all those europeans marching around paris went home and did absolutely nothing because they are a bunch of cowards. I want to see some french, german english, and italian soldiers with their arms and legs blown off, is what i want to see, and i want to see them barred and slaughtering 100,000 anderson people. Innocent people. Thank you. Guest i am not sure what erics question was about, but he raises the issue of the Islamic State, which has been growing in iraq and syria, and is now a problem in libya as well. The president of afghanistan ashraf ghani, when he came to washington, said his biggest fear was the advancement of the Islamic State there. One thing to remember is they only impact the Nuclear Issue they do not cover issues related to irans ambitions iraq with, syria, yemen, and they are not addressing issues that our concerns to others in the region such as irans Ballistic Missile program or terrorism. You asked before about sanctions. Iran wants an immediate lifting of sanctions, but some of the american sanctions are not tied to the Nuclear Program, but issues such as terrorism. Host mike is from new york. Independent line. Go ahead. Caller hi. You are so much for taking my call. I want to keep it simple. It is just very hard for me to fathom that we can trust the Current Administration of the iranians with the ayatollahs and the mullahs. On the same day secretary john kerry came out and said were making progress, there was a gathering with the head ayatollah and chants of death to america. I just do nothing we can have these talks with the Current Administration. We will have to wait. Anything that gets done will just a waste of time. Guest i certainly share mikes concerns with this. I am much closer to where mike is on this with regard to my skepticism. There are a couple of concerns i have. Before he became president , he was a Nuclear Negotiator and the national Security Council chairman of iran. He was national Security Council chairman of iran in 2001 when the former president threaten to develop Nuclear Weapons and drop them on israel, and he was silent on that. Likewise in february 9, 2005 he gave a speech to the assembled iranian hardliners in which he outlined a doctrine of surprise, where he argued that iran becomes victorious every time they love the americans into, complacency, and then they surprise them, deliver a knockout blow. Why verification become so important is is this a repeatable we have seen in the past with deception . Host we have heard about Health Issues with the Supreme Leader of iran. If something happens, will it affect negotiations . Guest ultimately it does. The Supreme Leader is about substance. The president is about style. If you were going to transpose the relative power of the president of iran to the president of the United States, youre are not talking about the president , you are talking about the secretary of agriculture. The Supreme Leader controls everything. When the Supreme Leader dies and there are rumors he has cancer now, ultimate, in theory, what happens, is you have 86member body which convenes to choose the next Supreme Leader. This is a way happened one time before in 1889 when the ayatollah died. At that 1989, when the alcoa died when the ayatollah died. The question is what consensus could you have if you do not have consensus readily available, and the other issue with the Nuclear Program is whether the much more ideological elements of the Islamic Revolutionary guard force will settle for anything less than a hardliner rather whether we can have a cycle of radicalization, which is what Many Political rather than what Many Political scientists assume, which is a modernization. Host go ahead. You are on. Caller i wanted to ask a question on iran visavis israel. I am concerned about the verification issues you raise. In verifying irans dismantlement of existing infrastructure, versus being able to verify or detect any covert Nuclear Activity is there a lot of daylight between the u. S. And israeli positions on these issues that could lead to a major, catastrophic, or misinterpreted kind of outcome . Thank you. Guest bob asks a relevant question. There is daylight between where the u. S. And the israelis stand, and more broadly, when the u. S. Stands and the International Atomic agency stands. When it comes to the International Atomic agency, by their own bylaws, they are only able to inspect declared nuclear sites. If there is suspicion, overwhelming evidence that iran has a covert side, the iaea cannot send inspections there. It is one reason they were not able to inspect the plutonium Processing Plant that the syrians built in 2008, which israelis ultimately destroyed. If i could add one more point, a lot of people say even if iran develops Nuclear Weapons, what is the big issue . They are not suicidal. What if they are terminally ill. We always talk about Irans Nuclear program, but we never talk about who would have custody of it. It would be the most ideologically pure members of the national guard. If they will have a regime change what will stop them from launching an ideological prerogatives, and that is where the traditional ideal of deterrence breaks down, this is what people in the middle east are so nervous. Host Michael Rubin with the American Enterprise institute. Martin. New kensington, pennsylvania independent line. Caller thank you, cspan. I hope mr. Rubin goes further concerning the region. The reconfiguration will take place regardless of the islamics capabilities. An independent kurdistan is key. The Kurdistan Regional government does not demonstrates selfgovernment. The peshmerga have proved their willingness to sacrifice the independence of their nation. Leaders of kurdistan, ranging from [indiscernible] each has contributed thousands whose names we will never hear have second fight for their people, their nation. They live there. They continue to be persecuted, oppressed, occupied by militants, and in search for international recognition. There are many in the region that have been relegated to the status of minorities due to the partitioning of the region after dismantling of the ottoman empire, after its defeat in world war i. Guest martin, host martin thank you for the call. We will let our guests respond. Guest martin brings up a point. It is not about iran and the middle east. Before i turn to the kurds, let me say that when people talk about the sunni and the shia regions, you might read that the shia are only 10 or 50 of the muslim world, so what is the big deal . The big deal, and why were hearing about this now, is between the mediterranean and iran, there is 50 50 parity, so there is the idea that everything is in play. The kurds are the largest people without a nation, and i have spent a lot of time in iraqi kurdistan, and also last year i spent a lot of time in syrian kurdistan, inside syria, with the same election that was fighting at kobani. What martin brings up, is absolutely right, this is one of those issues at play. This is where, all too often, we do not seem to have a very sophisticated conversation in washington, or more broadly, in europe, and in the west. The case is often presented as an emotional argument, and ultimately if the kurds decide they want to go in dependent that its going to be their choice. We need to consider is what the second order of impact is, simply so that we can make adjustments, for example. We have water sharing agreements that go back to 1986 between syria, turkey, and iraq, and suddenly you have an independent kurdistan, which means we consideration of those agreements. We also applauded the new minister who will be coming to washington because when he took office and replaced all mock he his predecessor, who had constraints with the rest with the west, he agreed to an oil deal with iraqi kurdistan. The day he did that, folks in southern iraq said we want the same deal, and certainly, if they want federalism, for example, baghdad is bankrupt. When it comes to kurdistan become an independent, you have the issue of precedent what will it mean for saudi shia that produce a lot of the oil in the Eastern Province . What will it mean throughout the region . We talk about a partition of turkey down the road . The leader of the pkk his image has gone from that of terrorist, to that of mandela and ultimately will have to deal with that should the Peace Process in turkey continue. Host the subject of sunni and shia play out directly in what is happening in yemen. Can you explain what is happening currently, what is the difference in the development of the groups, and the role iran plays as well . Guest this is a fascinating case, pedro. I used to live in yemen. There are shia that are completely different from a we see in iran in northern yemen. They did not have a shia identity. Over the last three years, and the press, we suddenly see the iranian disco