Transcripts For CSPAN Westminster College - Future Of The Ar

And training feature leaders of the army. As a proud army brat, it is my honor to introduce fourstar army general David Perkins. As the commanding general of the u. S. Army training and doctrine command, general David Perkins is it possible for selecting and recruiting every u. S. Army soldier, training and educating professionals, and designing the future u. S. Army to support National Security. A graduate of the u. S. Military academy at west point in 1980, general perkins has had numerous Senior Leadership positions over his career. These include special assistant to the speaker of the house, 104th u. S. Congress, Battalion Commander beating over 1000 personnel during operation able sentry, reggae commander leading over 3000 personnel during the invasion of iraq in 2003, executive assistant to the vicechairman of the joint chiefs of staff and Division Commander leading over 10,000 personnel during the transition of u. S. Forces from iraq in 2010 32011. Through 2011. On november 2011 through february 2014, general perkins committed the u. S. Armys premier education and all the institution at fort leavenworth. Responsible for Training Development and support, developing the u. S. Army doctrine and secret ending Leader Development, all of which provides foundational elements for the u. S. Army to conduct its mission. General perkins is a native of new hampshire. Behold the master degree in Mechanical Engineering and university of michigan, and a masters degree in National Security and strategic studies of the naval war college. Please join me in getting around of applause and a warm welcome to general perkins. [applause] gen. Perkins thank you. Thanks folks. Dont get too far forward, or you will get feedback. No need to leave your eardrum injuries tonight. My appreciation to all the folks who worked, the folks at westminster. Mr. Ambassador, being a big supporter of this and everyone involved with ucct. Its a great chance for me to get out and talk to you all, the american people, because as the Senior Leader in the United States army i would say you are the board of directors. We are your army. It is always great to come out to the board of directors, the american people, and give you an update on what we are doing and get a q a. I need to change direction or anything, dont hesitate. Im looking forward to the q a as much as anything else. Foreally do commend you all as the charter is given to sort of the proactive citizens and our democracy. Our democracy is based on that. As i travel around the world in some less than garden spots i think when people use the term democracy and what is involved they dont realize the responsibility put on the shoulder of the average person to pull that off. I do appreciate the fact you all internalize that and stay engaged and try to be informed citizens as well in this very complex world. As i wasabout coming out here, i think it was developing strategic leaders for the future, etc. I will talk about that. Understanding we in the army will make policy. We execute policy. It is our job to understand what the policy is. More importantly, prepare ourselves for that. As you can see on the big slide behind me i command you say to Army Training and doctrine command. Most folks have no idea what that is. It is tradoc because the army loves acronyms. It does a number of things for the army. I will highlight some of them so maybe you can get a vision of that. It may cue up some questions you have and may make sense, the topics im talking about. I will kind of hit some of the tips of the iceberg of what we do for the army, and then i will pull it all together on what that means for the future and what we are doing about that in the army to prepare for the future in this very challenging world we find yourselves today in. Probably more so. One of the things we do is called the architects of the army. We design the army. We are looking out to the years 2025 to 2050. You may think that the long ways out, but when you are building an army like hours of 1. 2 Million People that spans the entire world that is not too far around the corner. Ation does isniz we try to describe the operating environment. What are the geopolitical situations we are facing around the world . What are the demographics, the economics, the challenges we will face . What other competitors we will face what are the competitors we will face . What are potential adversaries possibly going to do to us . Once we have that figured out in the crystal ball we designed the army. As i said, in our role as architect without the concept of what we want the battalions and brigades and divisions to be. We write the requirements for the next helicopter or the next tank and we basically put together a blueprint for the army for the next 30 years. This is what we want it to look like. These are the first capabilities the army is to have, the kind of equipment we want, etc. That is one of our possibilities. Another thing is we recruit the army. I spent today with down at a recruiting statement here downtown. When you drive and you look at the strip malls and assess armed forces recruiting, that is tradoc. We recruit the soldiers to the army. Another thing we do is we run it at command. There are some great rotc folks in the audience. I just spoke to some not too long ago. We generate the majority of the officers of the run connect command. We run basic training. Our beloved drill sergeants and those folks that leave a lasting impression on young soldiers. We run advanced individual training and all the army school systems. Aviation, andy, any school the army has in the process we write the doctrine we teach in the schools and then the Lessons Learned and informed the doctrine. Range ofs like a wide topics. When you link them together it sort of makes sense. With the army has done is taken one command and they say youre the person you design the army. Then you go out and recruit the soldiers and officers. Once you require that, i want you to build that. You send them to basic training and Flight School and then i want you to constantly improve the army. New doctrine, the Lessons Learned, sending folks to the academy, etc. Make the army better. We design the army. We then go out and acquire the army we design. We build the army we acquired. And then we constantly improve the army we built. Thats what keeps us busy, at least until noon on most days. Training and doctrine command is a large and expensive organization. We are in 1634 locations around the world. We dont hit every one of them every year. Today we happen to get here in the utah area doing a number of things with recruiting. This venue has afforded us the opportunity for me to report back to the board of directors, the Senior Leader of the army. Now that ive laid out what we do for the army, what i want to focus on is what we are looking forward to the future, how we describe the future, and what we are doing about it. That might be of some interest to you. Maybe it will generate some questions. If you did put up the first slide please. I only have three slides and mostly they are pictures. Up in the was growing army, when i first came into the army and graduated from west point it was the height of the cold war. I was a young officer. Tanks and mechanized infantry. I was sent to the german boarder like all good armor officers should be at the height of the cold war. I would pull duty along the west germanyeast german border. I can remember that. Our whole army was designed and focused primarily on being able to deter in defeat the soviet union and the Central Plains of europe. In the Central Plains of europe. I came in the army in the early 1980s, the height of the cold war. We focused our army on being able to deter and or defeat the soviet union, in the Central Plains of europe. That was a challenge in and of itself, but we designed the army that way. This is a picture right out of the manual i grew up with called fm1005. This is a picture out of the one on my desk. I keep it there today since im in charge of writing the manual. Im always told that the gold standard, so i refer back to it. A couple of things jump out at you. One is if you are standing looking east, he would look eerily similar to this. What are army did, and these are units in the army. This is a diagram of how we would arrange the army. We sent one of the things if youre looking to the future, you will build an army, you have to describe the environment it will operate in. This describes the environment i was brought up in. We have a known enemy, the soviet union. Very wellknown. We know a lot about it and our mission was to know even more about something we know a lot about. We knew exactly where we would fight the soviet union on the Central Plains of europe. It would look like this. We knew what coalition we would fight that enemy. It was nato. In that coalition, it did not change very often. It was not like, well, the country would say i would be in nato on monday and get out on thursday and maybe get back in next week. We went for decades and you did not change that in or out of nato. We started thinking about it. What we have is a challenge. The army focused on the soviet union, a wellknown enemy. Focus on the Central Plains of europe, a wellknown location. We were part of nato, a wellknown coalition. We built an army to deal with that. What we did was build an army to deal with a known problem. When you build an organization to deal with a known problem, you build it a certain way. Ok. You buy certain kinds of equipment. You buy equipment a certain way, and you train people in a certain way. Sinceieutenant perkins, we had a known problem and on location, said he will take your tanks and you will dig them and 1500 meters. This is your location. Sovietst echelon, the took the mother them over and you will do with it. The way will train you is every 90 days you will go up to this same location, the general defense plan. You will go there and recon it again and again and again. You will learn more about something you already know a lot about. You are going to rehearse it over and over and over. You will have a little battle books with maps and acetate. And whererite on it you would cash amo and things like that. We are expecting that at the balloon goes up, world war iii, you just execute the script. Open uput look your battle book. You execute the script you have been reversing every 90 days. That is how you build an army to deal with a known problem. You completely rehearse over and over again a script and thats a you train as lieutenant perkins. When i came in the army. N i became the key to step the chief of staff of the army said the world is changing. Look at 2013 and describe the environment and build an army for that. What i have come to understand and experience throughout my career is we are not particularly good at predicting the future. We are not good at it. The only thing we get right all the time is we have a perfect tracker of being wrong perfect track record of being wrong about who we will fight. Toot of people, looking up 2050, weve took that into account your groups say you are the future guide for the army. I guess so. Well, when they say tell me about 2050, what they want me to do is give them a prediction. Well, what are we going to do in the mideast, the balkans . You know, really, as i look at the future, what im saying is it is unknown. I dont know. They are saying, so thats it . Youre just giving up . No, the future is unknown. You are not going to do anything more about it . Re stupid and lazy . Are you stupid and lazy . I wont argue that point, but the issue is thats all i need to know. I dont need to predict the future. What i need to do you build an army is described future. Theres a difference. When you predict the future you get to a level of specificity that becomes dysfunctional because you become so specific if it doesnt happen, youve optimized the army for an event that will not unfold. But we have focused on doing is describing the future, describe it in a way that provides you with enough clarity about how you start putting the pieces in place for an army that youre pretty sure youre going to need. I said thats what were going to do. That is what we did with our last operating concept. I grew up with a battle, this one. Will be published it last october i said, ok, we did exactly the same thing they did when they did this. I was told that the gold standard. We did exactly the same thing. We came up with exactly the same product, only its completely different. Exactly the same, only completely different. What . This is ours. World. In a complex 52531. Do pamphletc it is the Army Operating concept. This was the concept i grew up with. The one we just wrote. I said is completely the same only completely different. Yoularify in case any of are Naval Academy graduates, the first difference is this is in color and this one is in black and white. [laughter] a slickore than Just Marketing ploy. But i described this one here. I said, so, the first concept has to do with described the environment you will operate in in the future. We described this year with the word complex. It is unknown, unknowable, and constantly changing. Unknowable, and consummate changing. For the physics major is like the heisenberg principle. Measuring something in and of itself changes it. That is my view of the future as well. If you know something about it, it will almost assuredly not happen. If you know what will happen, you do something about it and what happened. Did we ever fight the soviet union in the plains of europe . No. Why . We knew a lot about it and we did a lot to prepare for it and it was part of the whole to turn. It never happened. What i tell folks, this describes the future. So does this. They are exactly the same thing only a completely different answer. I told you this was what . The soviet union and the Central Point of europe. Nato. Complex is unknown, unknowable and consummate changing. Both of these ascribed the future in general terms. This was describing a known problem. This was describing an unknown problem. I tell folks there is a guy who is supposed to design the army. I only have to know one thing about the future. It is a known future or an unknown future. Thats all i need to know. That is describing the future. Not predicting it. I cant tell you whats going to happen in the middle east, korean peninsula, all he knows future now or unknown. If the future is known you describe one kind of army. You write a kind of doctrine. This kind of doctrine. If you describe the future is unknown, to come up with a very Different Army with very different capabilities and you train people very differently. I get asked this question a lot. To put it in perspective i was at a venue once. We had i was the token land guy. The army general. We had a navy admiral and an air force general officer. They were talking about the future. They are going down the panel. I was the last guy. They talk so the air force general and said tell us about the future of the air force. He explains we will have stealth fighters and space this san all this kind of stuff we will have. Im reassured because i want to be in a country that has that air force. It sounded very good. In the navy admiral says we will still,dersea this and these kind of things that s stealth and these kind of things. I want that kind of maybe. Im feeling good because i like what the air force guy set in the navy got. Ok, perkins. You are the future guy for the army. Tell us about the future. What they really wanted me to do was what . Predict the future. They said sometimes you army guys are shortsighted. We want you to look out 50 years. Look out 50 years and basically predict the future of what is going to happen. I paused for a moment. One of my previous times in the army i have done stuff with media. They teach you if youre in an interview and some he asks you a question and its a tough question, just respond with another question. Ok,ay in the army perkins, predict the future 50 years from now. I paused. I say, look, is that really the question to be asked here tonight . Buys me a little bit of time. I said i dont think that really possible. I dont think its very useful. Lets assume i was here 50 years ago and you asked me that question. Youre asking me to predict that the years out with a level of specificity i think is not useful, but you keep pushing me on it. Lets assume this was 50 years ago. You are asking me this question. My answer might go Something Like this. Remember, 50 years ago the World Trade Center was not even built. 50 years from now . Will happen . I dont know. 10 years from now we will build these two really Tall Buildings at the tip of manhattan. They become the Financial Center of the world. Im sure some he said, why is this army of talking about these buildings . A Civil Engineer or something. Let him go. We are going to im predicting the future, you are very specific, 10 years from now will build these buildings. We will build these two Tall Buildings. Whatever. 20, 30 years from that we will have a very large attack on the continental United States. The result of that attack will be such that it causes more death than pearl harbor. More casualties than pearl harbor. They are thinking, what is this guy talking about . Thatf the other result is the two Tall Buildings we are going to build 10 years from now, 30 years from now they will come crumbling down. You are telling me to be predictive. Im looking longterm. We dont have any buildings yet. We will build some buildings. 30 years after that the United States will undergo an attack of which they will be more deaths than pearl harbor. And one of the results of that will be these two David Perkins<\/a>. As the commanding general of the u. S. Army training and doctrine command, general David Perkins<\/a> is it possible for selecting and recruiting every u. S. Army soldier, training and educating professionals, and designing the future u. S. Army to support National Security<\/a>. A graduate of the u. S. Military academy at west point in 1980, general perkins has had numerous Senior Leadership<\/a> positions over his career. These include special assistant to the speaker of the house, 104th u. S. Congress, Battalion Commander<\/a> beating over 1000 personnel during operation able sentry, reggae commander leading over 3000 personnel during the invasion of iraq in 2003, executive assistant to the vicechairman of the joint chiefs of staff and Division Commander<\/a> leading over 10,000 personnel during the transition of u. S. Forces from iraq in 2010 32011. Through 2011. On november 2011 through february 2014, general perkins committed the u. S. Armys premier education and all the institution at fort leavenworth. Responsible for Training Development<\/a> and support, developing the u. S. Army doctrine and secret ending Leader Development<\/a>, all of which provides foundational elements for the u. S. Army to conduct its mission. General perkins is a native of new hampshire. Behold the master degree in Mechanical Engineering<\/a> and university of michigan, and a masters degree in National Security<\/a> and strategic studies of the naval war college. Please join me in getting around of applause and a warm welcome to general perkins. [applause] gen. Perkins thank you. Thanks folks. Dont get too far forward, or you will get feedback. No need to leave your eardrum injuries tonight. My appreciation to all the folks who worked, the folks at westminster. Mr. Ambassador, being a big supporter of this and everyone involved with ucct. Its a great chance for me to get out and talk to you all, the american people, because as the Senior Leader<\/a> in the United States<\/a> army i would say you are the board of directors. We are your army. It is always great to come out to the board of directors, the american people, and give you an update on what we are doing and get a q a. I need to change direction or anything, dont hesitate. Im looking forward to the q a as much as anything else. Foreally do commend you all as the charter is given to sort of the proactive citizens and our democracy. Our democracy is based on that. As i travel around the world in some less than garden spots i think when people use the term democracy and what is involved they dont realize the responsibility put on the shoulder of the average person to pull that off. I do appreciate the fact you all internalize that and stay engaged and try to be informed citizens as well in this very complex world. As i wasabout coming out here, i think it was developing strategic leaders for the future, etc. I will talk about that. Understanding we in the army will make policy. We execute policy. It is our job to understand what the policy is. More importantly, prepare ourselves for that. As you can see on the big slide behind me i command you say to Army Training<\/a> and doctrine command. Most folks have no idea what that is. It is tradoc because the army loves acronyms. It does a number of things for the army. I will highlight some of them so maybe you can get a vision of that. It may cue up some questions you have and may make sense, the topics im talking about. I will kind of hit some of the tips of the iceberg of what we do for the army, and then i will pull it all together on what that means for the future and what we are doing about that in the army to prepare for the future in this very challenging world we find yourselves today in. Probably more so. One of the things we do is called the architects of the army. We design the army. We are looking out to the years 2025 to 2050. You may think that the long ways out, but when you are building an army like hours of 1. 2 Million People<\/a> that spans the entire world that is not too far around the corner. Ation does isniz we try to describe the operating environment. What are the geopolitical situations we are facing around the world . What are the demographics, the economics, the challenges we will face . What other competitors we will face what are the competitors we will face . What are potential adversaries possibly going to do to us . Once we have that figured out in the crystal ball we designed the army. As i said, in our role as architect without the concept of what we want the battalions and brigades and divisions to be. We write the requirements for the next helicopter or the next tank and we basically put together a blueprint for the army for the next 30 years. This is what we want it to look like. These are the first capabilities the army is to have, the kind of equipment we want, etc. That is one of our possibilities. Another thing is we recruit the army. I spent today with down at a recruiting statement here downtown. When you drive and you look at the strip malls and assess armed forces recruiting, that is tradoc. We recruit the soldiers to the army. Another thing we do is we run it at command. There are some great rotc folks in the audience. I just spoke to some not too long ago. We generate the majority of the officers of the run connect command. We run basic training. Our beloved drill sergeants and those folks that leave a lasting impression on young soldiers. We run advanced individual training and all the army school systems. Aviation, andy, any school the army has in the process we write the doctrine we teach in the schools and then the Lessons Learned<\/a> and informed the doctrine. Range ofs like a wide topics. When you link them together it sort of makes sense. With the army has done is taken one command and they say youre the person you design the army. Then you go out and recruit the soldiers and officers. Once you require that, i want you to build that. You send them to basic training and Flight School<\/a> and then i want you to constantly improve the army. New doctrine, the Lessons Learned<\/a>, sending folks to the academy, etc. Make the army better. We design the army. We then go out and acquire the army we design. We build the army we acquired. And then we constantly improve the army we built. Thats what keeps us busy, at least until noon on most days. Training and doctrine command is a large and expensive organization. We are in 1634 locations around the world. We dont hit every one of them every year. Today we happen to get here in the utah area doing a number of things with recruiting. This venue has afforded us the opportunity for me to report back to the board of directors, the Senior Leader<\/a> of the army. Now that ive laid out what we do for the army, what i want to focus on is what we are looking forward to the future, how we describe the future, and what we are doing about it. That might be of some interest to you. Maybe it will generate some questions. If you did put up the first slide please. I only have three slides and mostly they are pictures. Up in the was growing army, when i first came into the army and graduated from west point it was the height of the cold war. I was a young officer. Tanks and mechanized infantry. I was sent to the german boarder like all good armor officers should be at the height of the cold war. I would pull duty along the west germanyeast german border. I can remember that. Our whole army was designed and focused primarily on being able to deter in defeat the soviet union and the Central Plains<\/a> of europe. In the Central Plains<\/a> of europe. I came in the army in the early 1980s, the height of the cold war. We focused our army on being able to deter and or defeat the soviet union, in the Central Plains<\/a> of europe. That was a challenge in and of itself, but we designed the army that way. This is a picture right out of the manual i grew up with called fm1005. This is a picture out of the one on my desk. I keep it there today since im in charge of writing the manual. Im always told that the gold standard, so i refer back to it. A couple of things jump out at you. One is if you are standing looking east, he would look eerily similar to this. What are army did, and these are units in the army. This is a diagram of how we would arrange the army. We sent one of the things if youre looking to the future, you will build an army, you have to describe the environment it will operate in. This describes the environment i was brought up in. We have a known enemy, the soviet union. Very wellknown. We know a lot about it and our mission was to know even more about something we know a lot about. We knew exactly where we would fight the soviet union on the Central Plains<\/a> of europe. It would look like this. We knew what coalition we would fight that enemy. It was nato. In that coalition, it did not change very often. It was not like, well, the country would say i would be in nato on monday and get out on thursday and maybe get back in next week. We went for decades and you did not change that in or out of nato. We started thinking about it. What we have is a challenge. The army focused on the soviet union, a wellknown enemy. Focus on the Central Plains<\/a> of europe, a wellknown location. We were part of nato, a wellknown coalition. We built an army to deal with that. What we did was build an army to deal with a known problem. When you build an organization to deal with a known problem, you build it a certain way. Ok. You buy certain kinds of equipment. You buy equipment a certain way, and you train people in a certain way. Sinceieutenant perkins, we had a known problem and on location, said he will take your tanks and you will dig them and 1500 meters. This is your location. Sovietst echelon, the took the mother them over and you will do with it. The way will train you is every 90 days you will go up to this same location, the general defense plan. You will go there and recon it again and again and again. You will learn more about something you already know a lot about. You are going to rehearse it over and over and over. You will have a little battle books with maps and acetate. And whererite on it you would cash amo and things like that. We are expecting that at the balloon goes up, world war iii, you just execute the script. Open uput look your battle book. You execute the script you have been reversing every 90 days. That is how you build an army to deal with a known problem. You completely rehearse over and over again a script and thats a you train as lieutenant perkins. When i came in the army. N i became the key to step the chief of staff of the army said the world is changing. Look at 2013 and describe the environment and build an army for that. What i have come to understand and experience throughout my career is we are not particularly good at predicting the future. We are not good at it. The only thing we get right all the time is we have a perfect tracker of being wrong perfect track record of being wrong about who we will fight. Toot of people, looking up 2050, weve took that into account your groups say you are the future guide for the army. I guess so. Well, when they say tell me about 2050, what they want me to do is give them a prediction. Well, what are we going to do in the mideast, the balkans . You know, really, as i look at the future, what im saying is it is unknown. I dont know. They are saying, so thats it . Youre just giving up . No, the future is unknown. You are not going to do anything more about it . Re stupid and lazy . Are you stupid and lazy . I wont argue that point, but the issue is thats all i need to know. I dont need to predict the future. What i need to do you build an army is described future. Theres a difference. When you predict the future you get to a level of specificity that becomes dysfunctional because you become so specific if it doesnt happen, youve optimized the army for an event that will not unfold. But we have focused on doing is describing the future, describe it in a way that provides you with enough clarity about how you start putting the pieces in place for an army that youre pretty sure youre going to need. I said thats what were going to do. That is what we did with our last operating concept. I grew up with a battle, this one. Will be published it last october i said, ok, we did exactly the same thing they did when they did this. I was told that the gold standard. We did exactly the same thing. We came up with exactly the same product, only its completely different. Exactly the same, only completely different. What . This is ours. World. In a complex 52531. Do pamphletc it is the Army Operating<\/a> concept. This was the concept i grew up with. The one we just wrote. I said is completely the same only completely different. Yoularify in case any of are Naval Academy<\/a> graduates, the first difference is this is in color and this one is in black and white. [laughter] a slickore than Just Marketing<\/a> ploy. But i described this one here. I said, so, the first concept has to do with described the environment you will operate in in the future. We described this year with the word complex. It is unknown, unknowable, and constantly changing. Unknowable, and consummate changing. For the physics major is like the heisenberg principle. Measuring something in and of itself changes it. That is my view of the future as well. If you know something about it, it will almost assuredly not happen. If you know what will happen, you do something about it and what happened. Did we ever fight the soviet union in the plains of europe . No. Why . We knew a lot about it and we did a lot to prepare for it and it was part of the whole to turn. It never happened. What i tell folks, this describes the future. So does this. They are exactly the same thing only a completely different answer. I told you this was what . The soviet union and the Central Point<\/a> of europe. Nato. Complex is unknown, unknowable and consummate changing. Both of these ascribed the future in general terms. This was describing a known problem. This was describing an unknown problem. I tell folks there is a guy who is supposed to design the army. I only have to know one thing about the future. It is a known future or an unknown future. Thats all i need to know. That is describing the future. Not predicting it. I cant tell you whats going to happen in the middle east, korean peninsula, all he knows future now or unknown. If the future is known you describe one kind of army. You write a kind of doctrine. This kind of doctrine. If you describe the future is unknown, to come up with a very Different Army<\/a> with very different capabilities and you train people very differently. I get asked this question a lot. To put it in perspective i was at a venue once. We had i was the token land guy. The army general. We had a navy admiral and an air force general officer. They were talking about the future. They are going down the panel. I was the last guy. They talk so the air force general and said tell us about the future of the air force. He explains we will have stealth fighters and space this san all this kind of stuff we will have. Im reassured because i want to be in a country that has that air force. It sounded very good. In the navy admiral says we will still,dersea this and these kind of things that s stealth and these kind of things. I want that kind of maybe. Im feeling good because i like what the air force guy set in the navy got. Ok, perkins. You are the future guy for the army. Tell us about the future. What they really wanted me to do was what . Predict the future. They said sometimes you army guys are shortsighted. We want you to look out 50 years. Look out 50 years and basically predict the future of what is going to happen. I paused for a moment. One of my previous times in the army i have done stuff with media. They teach you if youre in an interview and some he asks you a question and its a tough question, just respond with another question. Ok,ay in the army perkins, predict the future 50 years from now. I paused. I say, look, is that really the question to be asked here tonight . Buys me a little bit of time. I said i dont think that really possible. I dont think its very useful. Lets assume i was here 50 years ago and you asked me that question. Youre asking me to predict that the years out with a level of specificity i think is not useful, but you keep pushing me on it. Lets assume this was 50 years ago. You are asking me this question. My answer might go Something Like<\/a> this. Remember, 50 years ago the World Trade Center<\/a> was not even built. 50 years from now . Will happen . I dont know. 10 years from now we will build these two really Tall Buildings<\/a> at the tip of manhattan. They become the Financial Center<\/a> of the world. Im sure some he said, why is this army of talking about these buildings . A Civil Engineer<\/a> or something. Let him go. We are going to im predicting the future, you are very specific, 10 years from now will build these buildings. We will build these two Tall Buildings<\/a>. Whatever. 20, 30 years from that we will have a very large attack on the continental United States<\/a>. The result of that attack will be such that it causes more death than pearl harbor. More casualties than pearl harbor. They are thinking, what is this guy talking about . Thatf the other result is the two Tall Buildings<\/a> we are going to build 10 years from now, 30 years from now they will come crumbling down. You are telling me to be predictive. Im looking longterm. We dont have any buildings yet. We will build some buildings. 30 years after that the United States<\/a> will undergo an attack of which they will be more deaths than pearl harbor. And one of the results of that will be these two Tall Buildings<\/a> that dont exist now will come crumbling down. Im sure people are sitting there like where is this guy going . I could see the first question being ok, general, you are saying the United States<\/a> will undergo an attack of which there will be more deaths than pearl harbor . Right. What is the enemy going to be armed with that will cost thousands of people to die on the continental United States<\/a> . Bombs,ath rays, neutron laser guns . Willn a futuristic weapon they be armed with the cause more casualties than pearl harbor . I said box cutters. Really . Some folks with hawks cutters are fox cutters will cause more deaths than pearl harbor . Yes, thats my prediction. By now and taking, holy cow, this guy is really out in left field. Ok. I am sure there will be some worldwide command and control mechanism that somehow is going to bring together and focus hundreds of thousands of box cutter wielding assailants doubled us and upon new york to kill more people are pearl harbor. What is the worldwide command knowsntrol apparatus that to synchronize untold numbers of box cutting assailants . It will be a radicalized guy in a cave in afghanistan. You are telling me some dude in a cave in afghanistan is going to coordinate somebody with box cutters to create more casualties than pearl harbor . That is what im predicting. General, know it all what is the United States<\/a>, the sole superpower of the world, going to do about this guy in afghanistan who created more death than pearl harbor . It will be obvious. We will invade iraq. That point they would say this guy hit the happy hour too soon. The problem is i wouldve been close in the production. Who would believe me 50 years ago that is what would happen . Thats the problem you try to predict the future. You cant get it right. There are so many nuances and so meet with twists it is impossible to do. You start making decisions based cynical prediction a sense of assurance you will know whats going on. Thats when we wrote the new operating concept we said were not going down that road anymore. We will not build an army for that. 50 years from now we will face a problem that anonymous could even in our wildest dreams make up. I am convinced of it. Will happen to us if years from now, none of us, even if we all wrote down on paper what we think will happen, may not even be close. Once you come to that conclusion that you do not know the future and you cannot know the future, you go down a different path. You go down a completely different path. If you think you know the future and you start to step off and make decisions. If you think you will not know the future, you expand the options available. You keep as many options open to you and you try to find an asymmetric capability that can withstand the test of time. This is generally not a material solution. It is generally not a material solution. In many ways that is the road we have gone down. We are saying, you know what . If you take a look at a linear kind of approach with very specific kinds of formations that very specific tasks today very specific things, begins a very specific enemy. That against a very specific enemy. This is an any part of the world for no part of the world. It takes all the domains, cyber, land,pace, maritime, the we have pretty special operations forces, nongovernment organizations, indigenous people, and we have to pull this together in a way that we can do it better than anybody else. What we have to do is be much more innovative and adaptive than the enemy. The world will change so much and so quickly is not necessarily he was most prepared at the beginning. It is he who adapts the quickest and can animate the quickest. You have to have very agile organizations. You have to buy equipment that is multipurpose. Most importantly you have to develop leaders that can be this way. Think this way. That is the topic of todays presentation, leadership for the future. You have to describe the future before you know what kind of leaders to make. If you have a different definition of the future, you will develop a different kind of leader. You go to the please. This is the Mission Command<\/a> philosophy. It gets to the kind of leader we want to develop for our army. It is based on our description of the future. As i said, this lieutenant perkins was developing an army in which we thought we knew what the problem was. We thought we would fight the soviet union in the Central Plains<\/a> of europe with nato. What we did with his lieutenant perkins is he rehearsed has an area over and over and over again so in the dead of night he could do it with his eyes. Armyhe future of todays we cant do that with the lieutenant perkins of today, and there is a lieutenant perkins today. We cant tell lieutenant perkins today we dont know if hes going to the baltics, the korean peninsula, the mideast. We dont know where he is going to go, number one. We have no idea who the enemy is. We have no idea what the rules of engagement is. We have no idea what the caveats are. We have no idea what the coalition is. When i grew up it was nato. That was it. There was no coalition of the willing. An attack against one is an attack against all. Article five. Now there are no coalitions. We dont know any of those things. Really think i know for the lieutenant perkins of today is he will not recon every 90 days. He will not go out there reconning. Probably the first time he is there is in combat. How do you develop that lieutenant perkins . You have to have a different philosophy of leadership. You have to have a different philosophy of leadership. The army has completely changed its philosophy of leadership. We are the proponent for the leaders and element in the army. We had a was called command and control. Control is issuing the order. Control is ensuring compliance. Washe army i grew up in it assuring compliance with the command. We said that is no longer our longer philosophy and no are worth fighting function. Mission command exists. What we want to have happen is we want our soldiers to seize, retain and exploited initiative that exploit the initiative to relevant advantage. Whether hes a private or ,eneral to look out there figure out where the need to be at any given point in time to be in a position of relative advantage and export the initiative to get there. That might be a position of advantage fighting the taliban. It might be a position of advantage dealing with hurricane sandy. Andmight be an advantage get humanitarian supplies. A position of advantage dealing with negotiations or whatever aur mission in, there is special place and time and maybe a geographic place and time, as well as maybe a position of Coalition Building<\/a> that puts you at an advantage. But it is what we call qualitative advantage. The future is unknown and constantly changing. Whatever is a positional advantage today may not be one tomorrow. It will change. That is why you dont always seize and retain initiative. You must exploit initiative. You have guts to always be one step ahead of whatever your problem set is. You cant be content with thinking know whats going to happen. You dont know whats going to happen. You always have to be positioning yourself to be able to be in the right stance to deal of what could happen down the road, or you could be shaping it. When i grew up our philosophy was command and control. That wont work for the future we are talking about because that assumes you know what to command somebody to do. What we are no longer focusing on is controlling compliance, but empowering the initiative. You dont control the initiative, you empower the initiative. How do you empower initiative versus control and compliance . We come down here. Subscribe, visualize, and assess. Understand the problem. We just talked about some folks about a bring in folks from across the world and have discussions to understand the world and culture and various things like that. All of our soldiers need understand the world they are in, understand the situation you are in, understand your caveats, your resources, the culture, all the relationships with variables. Once you understand that, visualize how you will take the resources you have available in a time and space base in your understanding of a problem such that your visualization results in a position of advantage with regards to the resources you have available. Once you visualize how you will get to a position of advantage, you describe your visualization to your subordinates and the people left and right have you, members of the coalition. Visualization so you come to a common understanding of the problem. Then, once you have this common understanding, you describe the visualization to everybody involved. The result of a common understanding. You then direct, lead and assess. You will still give direction, but you dont give direction until you have done this part here. This is generally the most difficult part. Especially in a complexity of the world we live in today and probably be incomplete increased complexity we will have in the future. What we have to do today with our young leaders, our privates, sergeants, lieutenants, train them to understand, not just comply. Complying with the active control is no longer adequate. When i was a lieutenant they pretty much wanted me to comply with the command given. And then succumb to the method of control. We say now that is no longer possible because we really dont w what the command that command them to do to any level of specificity. We empower them to exploit the initiative. That is a very difficult way to run an army. Thats a very difficult way to run an army because it requires a Huge Investment<\/a> in people. You have to spend a lot of time developing people. First of all so they even know i do understand the complexity of the world they are in. And then, two other things. Develop teams in your organization inside and outside organization, and then form and influence people in your organization and outside your organization. May well as a young noncommissioned officer lieutenant, having to be both building teams and influencing people, they are not even in your organization or the army or even americans. They could be nongovernmental organizations. If youre the 101st Airborne Division<\/a> and sent to western africa to deal with ebola, you are working with doctors without borders, the World Health Organization<\/a>. How do you describe what you are doing to them . If youre in an infantry platoon, you can describe your military mission to second squad. You know how to do that in a way that resonates. Can you describe your mission to the World Health Organization<\/a> in a way that resonates with somebody who has no idea what an infantry man does . How do you describe it then . Do you know those organizations do . You understand what role they play in the area you are in . You understand what their objectives are . That means you will have to build teams within your organization and outside your organization. You have got to figure out how to inform them as to what you are doing and how you will influence people. This is a very tough way to run an organization, especially in the United States<\/a> army. 1. 2 Million People<\/a> in 160 countries of the world. You can only attempt this if you have a very welltrained, well disciplined, and well led organization. If you dont have a welltrained, well lead and well disciplined organization, you dont empower that. What you do with the no trade, for the lead, ill disciplined organization . You control it. I spent a lot of time traveling around the world thinking about other armies. The less professional the army, the weather focus on control. The more professional the organization, and whether focus on empowerment. The more you focus on empowerment. I can tell in the United States<\/a> army as ago from unit to unit to unit. Units whose primary method of getting some gun is extreme amount of control is generally a less well led unit. Units that are very much about empowering subordinates, generally are better trained, better disciplined and better liked. I great leaders on anonymous control they have, but how much empower people. I can figure that out and about five minutes. See how they interact with people. You cant fake it. You cant fake that because it takes a huge amount of effort, time and investment to make that happen. I dont want to be rude what we have . We are good . What i would like to do so i can finish up can i go to questions now so i have time at the end . I we set up to do that . Ok. While we are setting up for , so, to recap. Talking with the leadership accident aspect, this is pretty revolutionary for the army. Even those in the army dont realize it. Our first field manual, the first doctoral manual was written in 1904. Last october,l just about every piece of Army Doctrine<\/a> is written to deal with a known problem. This manual was specifically written to deal with an unknown world. That is sort of a gamble we are making. We are putting our bets on the fact the world is unknowable and cost of the changing. 20 years from now if the world is exactly as unity predicted today, this is the wrong book. This does not optimize an army to deal with known problems. We are banking that the world will become more unknown and change more quickly. As i go around to organizations and do a lot of Leader Development<\/a> stuff in the army to get ideas, a lot of people in organizations have never come to that conclusion. They are developing their leaders but they dont know what for. They are taking the latest book. There are some organizations or you may develop leaders are regularly than others because it depends on what the organization is for. They take the latest management book and think its onesizefitsall. I argue it is not. Ill be ready for official questions . Now we can start asking questions. I will say little time at the end to wrap up a couple of things. Regular. Right here. This command unit you are in charge of, did it exist before the second invasion of iraq . If so, did it have influence . And what was that input . You probably were not there then. Gen. Perkins i was the Brigade Commander<\/a> during that. 2003 . Yeah, tradeoff existed and it was formed tradoc was formed in 1973. An interesting story about how it came to be. It was pulled together in 1973. Where was the United State Army<\/a> in 1973 . Coming out of vietnam. The army as it was coming out of vietnam was sort of pivoting back to central europe. The army leaders took a look at the army and said the army we have is probably not the army we want to deal with the soviet union. We are coming out of vietnam, although we had some unbelievable aerobic activity on the battlefield heroic activity on the battlefield we are consumed the noncommissioned officer corps in vietnam. We do not have training, and modernization program. Our leadership said we need to change the army. We need to change it from a we had in vietnam to something to deal with the soviets. They forme trad formed training and doctrine command. As we went back into iraq in 2003, i was a Brigade Commander<\/a> at the time. I tend to reserve criticism for myself and the Organization Im<\/a> associated with. I was an armored Brigade Commander<\/a> at the time with the lead force that invaded. I could tell you probably one of the problems we had as i look back on it was we thought we knew what we were dealing with. I was pretty sure i had good intelligence, satellite photos, things like that. A false sense of understanding of what it was. I will leave it at the level i was as a kernel colonel. You start developing a battle plan based on your sort of false understanding and your sort of level of assurance. One of the reasons he get to that you get to that is you take previous experience and you artificially set it on top of your current experience. Thats a common problem. You should look back in history to become informed but not be captive to it. I would say at my level we were probably captive to the experience of desert storm. Which was a very different situation. I am not a enough, desert storm veteran but i saw it on cnn like everyone else. I was an instructor at west point at the time. I had never been in combat before i was a Brigade Commander<\/a>. It was my first time crossing the line of departure. My Battalion Commander<\/a>s had been and so it might subordinates so had my subordinates. Desert storm lasted only 100 hours. We did this in this. Facehuman nature you will your less experience on this one because everything seemed the same. Its in the desert, the same guy, etc. What a lot of us failed to do was understand a lot of things have changed. This was a little bit different. It are pushing summary out of the country versus going in. Certain assumptions are made. At my level probably not questioned the red team. Second and third order affects. But we found out early in that invasion is it would not be like last time. Some things were dramatically different. The Republican Guard<\/a> and things like that. The good thing is, and at the tactical level, our soldiers were good at adapting and innovating in dealing with it pretty quickly. They are making the best of about situation. But if you make a couple of fatal assumptions, you then really have to quickly make up for that and get ahead of the power curve. One of the reasons we have written our new concept now is informed on what we have seen in iraq afghanistan. Iraq and afghanistan. We had not written a new concept like this before 2003. Honestly i went into iraq with basically doctrine similar to the formations i had seen that we had, basically did you look more or less a known situation. This is an outcome of that. We try not to say we will do the 2003 invasion better. We are saying their first order principles that come out of it. You focused on indications of change versus confirming something that you think is a certain activity out there. Our intelligence preparation, we lay it out on a withate and then we cross intelligence to confirm what we think is that the known answer. You try to put all the pieces, you think you have the right and then you are crosscutting thats to confirm or deny that you are setting pieces right. One of the common mistakes is you are trying to confirm the value of a variable, x thing, light equal something x erqual equals something the human brain does not like to deal with unknowns. The kind of world that we would have been better served with 2003, instead of confirming a template of why no, what i focus on is the relationship between the variables. I dont care what the value is, i care about the relationship. If this is happening with this regime and the Republican Guard<\/a> does this, what happens . That kind of thinking did not roceedve that 2003 p that 2003 activity but we are trying to take those Lessons Learned<\/a>. [inaudible] no, in fact, but we are working is a concept very much with the air force, navy and marine corps. We just briefed my chief of staff, the secretary of the army, the chief of staff of the army and the combat and marine corps together. What if the things i point out , if you take a look at this, the world that i grew up in, this is army stuff. If you take a look at this, we have semper fi activity going on ,ere, navy here, air force here in fact, the thing that is missing is a bunch of army stuff. Unhcr, none of that stuff is on the other here. We are approaching this as a joint, will be called combined aspect. I was over in europe talking about this stuff last week as we work with our allies. We need to have a different vision of how the world unfolds them the one than the one who grew up in. The mic folks decide. I think we have one here. More jointlye areation things you describing, could you talk about working with nato and the efforts with poland . Poland is my old unit. Conjunction much in with of this, with this, we division,ng the poland one of our great nato allies. Optionsying to provide as well as a deterrent for fierce competitors in that area. As i was coming into the army, we had formally we have forces firmly station in europe stationed in europe. Fromtation in poland is for carson, colorado fort carson, colorado. We move them around. They have been in the baltics, romania, places like that. It is providing a lot of different options. With that requires for the army is enough to have a much more agile army. When i was growing up, you were stationed here and you would fight in one location. Our army is smaller now than when i was a lieutenant but our requirements are even larger than when i was a lieutenant so we have to be more agile with our army. It have to have many more capabilities. No more one trick ponies. These are called icons. Or iconshave units that can do one thing. They have to be able to do multiple things. They have to be comfortable on doing lots of things. They have to operate in many parts of the world and move back and forth very quickly. The requirements are greater than they were when i was growing up. If i take a look at this, you see this is a much more static, linear formation. Out, youery spread have all the domains, cyberspace, etc. And now one of the challenges is how do we connect all that together . Both the Tactical Network<\/a> with regard to to cyber and the physical conductivity. Physical connectivity. Do the soldiers here know how to work with the United Nations<\/a> on refugees . Ngos . Hey cooperate with there is networking that is much greater and a technical networking that is much greater. This was complicated, this is complex. Big difference. Complicated systems have a lot of moving pieces. Wheres back to that thing i talk about the value of a variable and the relationship of a venerable. In a complicated system, there are a lot of moving pieces. It gets back to the thing where i talk about the value of a variable and the relationship of a variable. This is a complicated piece of machinery. You are looking at it, it has springs and years but a complicated system, the relationship with the their goals that the relationship with the variables never changes. If youre looking at a swiss because configured out the actions replicate themselves over and over again. Every time that secondhand turns one revolution the minute hand clicks one and when this secure titans, every time i wind it, the same thing happens. That is a complicated watch. Watch, you a complex open it up and you cannot figure it out and the reason you cannot figure it out is because of the relationship with the variables always changes. On the complicated watch, every time the secondhand has one revolution, the minute hand moves once. Complexplicated on a system, the relationship with the variables never represents never replicated health twice. If it is a complicated problem, you can take previous activities and translated and tesselate is on there. You know how to solve the problembut in a complex you cannot duplicate. Can you talk about how the army is planning for and preparing for Climate Change<\/a> . On any number of things whether it is Climate Change<\/a> and we do is look longterm see what changes are occurring, climate, demographic there are a number of things out there. I know there a huge discussion on Climate Change<\/a> but we take a look at it the way we look at other environmental factors. We see increased rate of urbanization. More and more of the population of the world are living in larger urban areas. So what we do as an army, we are not going to change the demographic trend of the world to become urbanized, were not going to change what happens with the climate, we say how am i going to build a capability to deal with that . We do not set policy, we execute policy. We have to try to describe what are the things happening in the future and how can i operate in that world that has now changed. When you take a look at Climate Change<\/a>, we have what we call the most dangerous, most likely, you say what are going to be some of the challenges . Shortagesage is, food foodter shortages, shortages, where are the parts of the world your sing famine and drought, those are parts of the world where you could have complex. One of the requirements of the army is to operate in those parts of the world. What if we were asked to do a humanitarian kind of thing, do we have the capability . Do we have the language capability . Can we sustain ourselves medically . This world was we are only going to operate in one part of the world and now this, we operate everywhere. What kinds of networks and the established if youre going to what kind of networks are g oing to be established . What level of infrastructure is already there . Is it isolated . Is it landlocked . The armys challenges are not to solve those problems but to make sure we into the baby possibility of the. But to make sure we look into the possibility of that. My question is what examples leaders done to help shifts to an outward mindset to be able to influence others and recruit partners in this world. Easier for me to answer what we are not doing. We have rewritten all our doctrine. Every school in the army now teaches it and own all the brigade training in the army. We send out these scenarios and run people through it. We make them become critical thinkers. We make them have multiple paths to success and from the beginning we a colts rate of them to that world we acculturate them to the world. When you come into the army we Young High School<\/a> graduates into the world of the military and the army. Had do we get people to think broadly, it happens very early on. When i was a young person coming into the army, i went to the rifle range for the first time and i remember there were two trucks parked in the parking lot, one you got on if you qualify and the other you got on if you did not qualify. Ll i needed to know was i need to get on that truck. And that is all i remember about ship. Marksman do not get on the truck with the people who did not qualify. Recently i was down at a basic training location and i sat down with these new recruit, myself and my command sergeant major. They have been in for three weeks, so they had all the answers. Init down in the metal imess hall and i said could not given to say anything. And msimilar to that m commercial with mythical figures. They were not afraid of me, they were afraid of the journal sergeant. Drill sergeant. I asked one soldier what you like best about the army . He said i have never shot a rifle before and it was exciting and we just qualified. And he saidid it go not as good as i wanted. He said the practice was good but we went out to the rifle range i fired, shot at the target and then my drill sergeant went down the target and i had some bullets here and there and my drill sergeant said what he think is wrong and he sergeant, irill know how the trajectory of a round goes like this and since it was spread out i did not have good breathing. I will change this. He had already been taught, this is the ballistics of a rifle, this is what the effect is, he had all that background behind him and the drill sergeant said what are you going to do, how are you going to fix it. He said private, this is a problem, how are you going to solve it. Remember, getw i on this a truck or that truck, i had no idea about the ballistics of a rifle. It is not like we explain everything into detail but we are getting them into the mold of how you need to understand how things work. You need to understand what you can change to make things happen and this is within the scope of their responsibility. We start early on. Official last question, right here. Battlefield about a that is constantly changing, and henamic, very lethal talked about having to move every two hours to survive. To allow us to have that mobility, what is the process in modularizing th ese systems so they can be deployed quickly . Challengese two big in a multidomain battle the first thing is keeping it all connected network wise. We want this first unit yet mutually supportive. We do not want 15 separate things going on at the same time. It is not just about dispersion, it is about mutual support. Making sure that they are not mutually supported and can be isolated. How do you develop a weapon systems that have the ranges to mutually disport to mutually support various locations and the second thing is sustaining them. How do you provide medical evacuation if someone is wounded . If you not have secure lines of communications, how do you get casualties out . Maybe you will have to treat them closer to the front with more extreme measures. Maybe you have surgical robots that can do surgery on folks. The two big challenges we have two operating in this dispersed environment is maintain the mutual support. Is how do ilenge maintain mutual support while this first while dispersed and how do i supply sustainment to all of them. You as the board of director of the United States<\/a> army and i was talking to some young recruiters and rct recruits i was reminding them that we are your it into putting perspective of their sacrifice and the legacy they are upholding and the responsibility that we put in their back in back. Rucksack and their we are coming up on the birthday of the United States<\/a> army, june 14, 1775. The birthday of the United States<\/a> is july 4, 1776. That means the United States<\/a> army is older than the United States<\/a> of america. This country was founded on the back of the United States<\/a> army and its soldiers, whether it is buffer hell or valley forge ker hill or valley forge serving isr citizens older than the republic they older served in is than the republic they defend. It is responsible for the country you are a citizen of and all the great benefits we have. Putting into perspective why i do appreciate the chance to come out here and speak to the board of directors as one of the leaders of the oldest institutions in the United States<\/a>. Thank you for offering your support. God bless you all. [applause] ladies and gentlemen, i just want to be able to share a small token of our appreciation to general perkins and honestly thank him for the service and many of you in the audience have given as well. Thank you for your time and dedication to the United States<\/a> of america. Thank you for putting this together. [applause] more than the big fight, more than our race, more than our religion, it is our actions, every day that defined who we are. I have learned in my life that the biggest thing you can do on any day is often just a small act of kindness. The impact of notre dame reaches far behind far beyond the site of the golden dome. Your commitment to social , your focus on ethics and culture promotes the value of all human life. If you believe it is the most interdependent age in human history, if so, is the primary object to have you and your crowd dominated or do you want to create a world in which every Single Person<\/a> has his or her shot at the best way. Announcer 2017 commencement speeches, speakers include senator cory booker, Vice President<\/a> mike pence, senator Tammy Duckworth<\/a> at George Washington<\/a> university, former president bill clinton at hobart and William Smith<\/a> colleges, former senator kelly ayotte and general joseph doctored at st. Michaels college. Tonight on cspan and cspan. Org at 10 p. M. Eastern. Cspan, a tomorrow on look at the politics and security of the asiapacific region and tensions on the korean peninsula. Live from the International Institute<\/a> of strategic studies and later, a symposium looking at brown versus board of education which found state laws establishing separate for black and white students to be unconstitutional. Live coverage from the Thurgood Marshall<\/a> college fund on cspan at one point 15 p. M. Eastern 1 15 p. M eastern. Announcer bob woodward set down with this is 20 minutes. [applause] mike appreciate it. Thank you for being here and thank you to this amazing team that has put together this amazing space. I hope you all got some bacon and goat cheese oatmeal like mom used to make. So we thank mexico and their quaker tropicana and Nutrition Brand<\/a> for sponsoring this conversation series and making this amazing event possible. Thank all of you for reading axios. 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