Cspan. 24 years ago this year. I was in public politics and i published the books in arabic. My American Journey in academia in 1991 at Florida Atlantic university. In the 90s i published articles. To get the tenure. It was only after 9 11 that i moved to washington. And then the one that preceded this book that actually this book is volume two of the coming revolution. I published it in 2010 and that both predict it are projected that there will be riots and Civil Society and eventually they would be sort of a civil war or race between islamists on the one hand insect is on the other hand. And i published this book to try to analyze the evolution of people in the middle east and projection. Let me also add that i do advise members of u. S. Congress and members of the European Parliament who have formed a joint caucus called the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on counterterrorism. Thats a very busy and distinguished professional resume. Let me try and get a little more and add your mind. What led you to leave lebanon and go to the United States . I did not want to leave lebanon. I was teaching. As in politics. I was also a publisher of a magazine caught masher at international, which was focusing on precisely what became the arab spring. That was 25, 26 years ago. They focused on the future of minorities, prosecutions of minorities. After that, but also democratic movement. In 1990 that was a major event. That convinced me i cannot continue with the work in beirut. They had a very relative calm. Then the steering army invaded lebanon in the choice is simple. Stay in beirut and have a strong freedom worthy of the United States. At many other personal reasons to come here, pursue a phd and i was offered a job in florida and thats how i became american. This year may have a habit not 75. What happened in 1990 that make you feel you needed to leave . And 75, 76 they controlled lebanon. They did not succumb to syrians. So i stayed there as long as there is a piece of land that was free. Many lebanese fled from day one. I stayed throughout the 15 year support. But definitely having been in public speech, having opposed the opposition, having published books i minorities in freedom and democracy, they would not of been a choice. If i wanted to continue to write. I had a dream to get an american phd and teach here. So both came together. Banks. Now we begin by having some sense of where you are coming from both geographically and intellectually. So you start up this book with quite bald assertion saying the outcome of the u. S. Policies since 9 11 has been the inverse of what the policies were intended to do or proclaim to do that al qaeda has grown immeasurably and we are witnessing the rise of not only islamists, bissell offers come discriminating the most extreme form of this pompous. For season regime. Do you want to defend their . Explain it, elaborate . Guest this is one of the cornerstones of the book. We have been very optimistic view and rebels, many of the various, raffles, and the changes happening. It looks like Eastern Europe that it is not. But then you have the entire arab spring is only about the islamists and nothing could be done in the middle east. In my book i make the case that it is neither one nor the other. This both at the same time. So for 9 11 and till 2011, that decade had gigantic efforts in the region. I mean, we removed the taliban. We removed saddam hussein. Rekeyed space in those two spots for societies to emerge and to play the game of democracies. Many in washington for cad at the next two peaceful nonviolent resolutions that it failed were impressed by what was happening in afghanistan were in the parliament in iraq was not only the baath party, but Many Political parties. That is how democracies begin. So why make the case in this book that the arab spring was influenced by two precedence. One was the revolution of lebanon. 1. 5 1. 8 Million People gross against the syrian occupation. It was not entirely successful because hezbollahs weapons remain in the green revolution in iran in june 2009 that also try to rise against. Now, the arab spring had its own experiment and to answer your question, she hot is to have been removed from afghanistan, al qaeda in particular have recreated hugs all of the region. They are back in iraq in the sunni triangle. They are growing in yemen, in somalia. I wont even begin with opera seria where they have also expanded into lebanon. Each is fighting them. Statistically speaking, at one point we may have taken out how lucky, but this is the generation of the ancestors of al qaeda. Now talk about the third generation. Apart from al qaeda is that your point the islamists are winning in the region. Certainly they were winning for a time, but then theres been pushback. What is the pushback in egypt and tunisia. What is your sense of the state of play now . Guest absolutely. We are in a delayed understanding of what would happen. When we want the islamists are winning, mr. Dancers were no the rebels are winning. Now in reclaiming asia and tunisia and other parts assemblers are rising. They say the islamists are in control. But its actually happiness or race. The islamists and she hot is her dating whatever they can. They are now flanked by the secularists of egypt went 33 million egyptians marched on june the 30th. Not just the largest demonstration of egypt in the issues of demonstrations. This is because the silent majority has shifted. You had on the one edge muslim societies a large slice of islamists and she hot us, which would grow. On the other side you have liberals, and then you have on the top the regime, any regime with america or against america. But was not moving us is the case in eastern and Central Europe are a lot america was the silent majority. Millions and millions of people who watch and onto the site. But egypt has done not in the first resolution revolution, but an effective revolution revolution the site majority move shows the liberal example. It shows the secular example with the islamic. That is not yet the full success of democracy because democracy needs a revolt against dictatorship against mubarak and against more seed, a radical islamic dictator. Not a challenge in egypt is to challenge but happy and in so is the case and tunisia today new Political Parties. Only new Political Parties can reorganize democracy and allow Political Parties to function normally. Lets stick with egypt for a few minutes because i was struck to some of the things you say in the book about egypt. One of those is to Say Something to the effect that the arab spring is back on track in egypt. Back on track is that your exact word, but finally we have it and egypt is in effect on the path to democracy. A lot of other people, including the egyptians i know look at whats going on in saying what happening is the military is back in power. No democracy in democracies have been put on the back burner or in the closet or Something Like that. Your take seems to be very different. Guest it is very different because when we were printing facebook and the debate and all those who triggered the early waves of january 2011, disable critics were saying no, the reformers are the Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition in mubarak is our friend, so we need to calibrate. What we need to do is read what egyptians women are not a minority. Women and minorities. Youre right. From the American Perspective that women are minority which is not true. Youre right. Sit egypt now has discovered the majority that doesnt want any more totalitarian regime. By the military are in power, i am can tending in the next month that despite all of what the military will try to do, maybe they will be elected as president and mrs. A major change. There is a constant majority now that would go back if another attempt will come back. For example, many programs are arresting including members of Muslim Brotherhood, but liberal groups. They go back to the Muslim Brotherhood. The egyptians will tell you we dont pop mubarak. We dont want morrissey and anybody who comes will have to follow a trend towards democracy. Now they are in a transitional democracy, democratic past. This revolt was done against the Muslim Brotherhood is not going to produce immediately the democracy. The choice of the egyptians have either the password islamization as they call it on entrance tabor there will be access criticized as the rest of these individuals so that will support the process and put pressure on the government to stop these arrests. You cannot reverse it and go back. That would be my view. I certainly find i share your sense of alarm or a good at the past egypt was on. I felt that if the Muslim Brotherhood its grip on egypt. The egyptians or anything else will be democratic. Right now i guess im a little bit less optimistic than you are what egypt is going. I note i am not convinced that you can create a democracy on the basis of the mass of people will go to Tahirir Square every time there is a deviation. That would be there is so ending exhaustion. People wont keep doing it or else at some point you just have chaos if its ruled from Tahirir Square. So what besides the ever present threat that if the new regime becomes the people go back to Tahirir Square, do you see other Structural Forces there that are going to push this in a democratic direction . That is actually the question of the day that the book is trying to answer, may not have answered fully because its another book. The book is saying as he just argued, getting rid of what the brotherhood was trying to establish is the biggest that very because had they been able to do it, wouldve been very dangerous. No civilian or secular regime, even the moderate sunni leadership. So this is how i see a pair from a liberal democratic is, from america, sweden, its still behind. Egypt today would be comparable to what Latin Americans struggling democracies on their path to the file word, but away from the military regime existed before and now hopefully what is in venezuela. In egypt you have several things that the mass participation and big banks sometimes for one day or two days important. Anybody that wants to assert the unstoppable power. The judges have demonstrated dozens of judges across egypt have started a role to keep things under the law. You have labor unions for the first time who have shown some determination to maintain the sort of culture. They are now more surrogates. So what is happening now is sort of a dove under which Political Forces are moving forward. It is not yet egypt is not even greece yet for southern italy or spain, which are still struggling with in the midwest. So from the western good, we cannot judge from a perspective. I think there will be crisis. Even between how much theyll keep islam are not keep islam and the constitution, there will still be a lot of debate. I am as an historian trying to say egypt went for a very difficult time well. Now i can go out with the Democracy Forces by no means the end of the process. I want to stay with egypt for a few more minutes. You say in the book you make a recommendation for u. S. And western policy towards egypt now, which is in keeping very much at odds with what is our policy right now and with the prevailing wisdom is among most people who comment on the u. S. Policy towards egypt. You say that we ought to step up aid and embraced egypt more warmly than in the past. Absolutely. I am firm on this issue because im afraid if we dont think egypt is going to go into populism. But the strong leader, more influence. Theyre going to talk to other leadership in the world by the military delegation government. So if we go, now and for this new partnership, the new partnership should not be the Old Partnership with the government regime. We had it with mubarak. Then we had it with morrissey in morrissey was using our partnership to create an islamist base. So now we do offend people to people. Its trying to divert some of this aid to the sector of Civil Society in each activity may not have to do it from u. S. Government to people, but from the American People and multiple ways to do that. Congress should do a lot of calibrating. Egyptians should also do a lot. My advice is were not clear that both because the book is addressed to american leaders. They need to send many english speakers. Others should be here because this is the egypt america does not know. In terms of Public Policy in what they want. Even the cops to come and visit around churches here because thats 10 , 12 of the population. And for a strong engagement to retain back to countries that want to be stable and move forward. That is one thing that egypt now seems to be emerging as a leader for a larger block of moderate countries. Saudi, bahrain, uae, jordan in terms of pushing back against the brotherhood, being concerned about iran. So if you want a smaller policy, despite all the problems that exist in egypt, now is the time to bring them in. When you talk about aid to Civil Society in egypt, with one of the difficulties has been that the Egyptian Government under mubarak and more see and i dont know that its changed has been extremely difficult to deal with on this particular point. Egypt has never been among the most repressive dictatorships. It is just kind of middle of the pack dictatorship. But on the point of allowing foreign aid to Civil Society, they were one of the most recalcitrant and have been straight through. Right now there are american ngos whose staff, including Freedom House, National Democratic institute were tried and convicted in egypt simply for channeling funds to Civil Society. Did you see a way of coping with that are getting around that . That is our ngos there. We should be very firm in the egyptian authorities found the next Egyptian Parliament to be elected. To stop the prosecution of the fallen ngos. On one hand we need to be firm. On the other hand you listen to the arguments of the egyptian spy with a angry with ngos . One of the answers as most of the people who make trained were Muslim Brotherhood in the sense that you see now the litigations are coming to washington are basically shoveled and basically gone by many ngos and white other organizations and ngos come to washington. Unfortunately we thought by partnering with the Muslim Brotherhood that this is the opposition did this as an academic mistake made in washington. Before the reform the ideology. For people to people, there is a window now because egypt is fighting a huge battle against radical networks. Uprising against the valley of the nile. So not any aid coming straight to villages or cities in the good of housing Civil Society, i dont think the next government to be elected in the next parliament if we do at the right way will object to that. We can rectify this ngos should negotiate their return and theres a work in. Host walid, i have to quarrel with you a little bit. They may save you to check government and the people of the u. S. Ngos for partnering with in egypt were primarily islamists are brotherhood people. When i say it, they are lying. Its not true. Truth and not very tasty and, full disclosure im a member of the board of one of these organizations. Im pretty well acquainted with his work at night to know the egyptian Staff Members of Freedom House who were arrested and convicted had some unfair are, in absentia. None of them i saw mass or proislam is. I think the proof there is that the indictment said these ngos came still under mubarak regime, that the prosecution will continue. The real reason for the prosecution must be ngos are working with the islamists, then somehow the morrissey administration would have allowed i agree with you that the intention and leadership at the ngos not to back the Muslim Brotherhood and the staff is underground may have known better than i do think that is not what i intended to say. The groups that we train, most of the groups that we trained pious as ngos that they were formed by members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The result at the end of the day is what the egyptian side is saying. More seeds government was smart. Theyre pushing against the judges. It is very short one year. On the one hand i agree with you that our ngos should be back. I defended them and intervene with that. But there should be smarter in the ways of engaging those forces. I have been nesting on many meanings with european ngos and the experts and the people engaged. Why didnt we see that . Not knowing the entire series of facts. Let me continue but they take this to another area because i really felt i won with you in terms of your straw fear and dislike of the brotherhood in disbelief of those who say that they are just moderates they are somehow the equivalent of the christian democrats in europe. I dont believe and i follow you and miss that the democrats of any kind and i have a completely different agenda. I am on the same plane with you. But i was surprised in the book and how far you go in making the accusation that u. S. Policy was probrotherhood or proislam as. It seemed to me accommodated to some extent, but i didnt think the isl