My name is ken rogoff. Im a professor at Harvard University and im here today to speak to our Glenn Hubbard who im going to call glenn whos written this extremely brave and interesting book called the brit the wall and the bridge. Its just published by yale university, press in 19 in 2022. And professor hubbard takes us through really what globalizations done in ripping apart american policy and politics and how to bring it back together and he points to really these wall things that have come up. I dont think he quite meant trumps border wall, but rather protectionism things to try to block ourselves off to try to restrict trade to restrict peoples choice and on the other hand having to recognize that its very disruptive when technology moves fast globalization moves fast and his his metaphor the bridge is we need to find ways to get people from one place to another we are not going to stop the world from changing. Something thats you know, all too painfully a parent and the geopolitics today. Ive known plan for a very long time is a leading scholar in Public Finance and a number of other fields. He served with distinction and the council as head of the council of economic advisors in the in the early 2000s under president bush and has since been dean of the Columbia Business School and written many important papers, and i think ive really appreciated glenn how in recent years. Youve tried to create a center not a center in the Republican Party center in the United States and you written with others who tried to do the same. For example, tim geitner who of course was the treasury secretary under president obama. So lets lets dive into your book i want to assure viewers. We are going to come back to some of the broader issues of how whats going on in geopolitics touches on glance thesis. I think i think actually this question of how do we come together has become very urgent because its one thing to say. Well, you know, we hate the atrocities being committed in ukraine, and wed like to see president putin soundly defeated and its another thing. Whats your longterm strategy for doing that . How long are we going to keep sanctions on what other things that were going to do . What are we going to do with our Energy Policy . Well come to that towards the end because i think really this overarching theme in professor hubbards book is really how to find a constructive solution to our problem. So so glenn welcome and if i can just you know start you off with what motivated write this book which you know, you see books today that are sort of written to the right and get viewers on the right people on the right to buy it and you see even more books on the left to have viewers on the left eye. I think at times the best seller list has had nine out of 10 of the books about, you know, the problems with President Trump. Youve written something that doesnt, you know, clearly go at either audience. Youre trying to create a center and im just very interested in what motivated you and even if you had early reaction yet to share that with us. Well, thanks ken and thanks for your thoughtball introduction. I was motivated really by three things in economic concern a political concern and actually a personal journey on the economic concern. You know, we have been through a period, you know, as you suggested. Were theres a bit of a tug of war in our political process so for growth and growth is something that we usually think of an economics as being about science and technology and about organizations to accommodate it. Im really worried about politics and im very worried that were in an environment where the political process has proposed protectionism of a variety of ways of firms of International Markets of jobs that really goes against growth and that leads me to sort of the political observation, which is that growth is like the head side of a colon. Its the one we all love to talk about is economists policymakers love and Business People do but every coin with the head says a tail. The tails is disruption and there isnt a serious model of Economic Growth that doesnt also entail enormous amounts of disruption and i think the political process hears cries for help if you will the demands. And the supply side from politics has to take one of two forms. It could be walls and those are really easy. Im going to protect you from something. You dont like sounds great politicians on the left and the right are both doing it. It doesnt work because you and i both know the other alternative in the political process is harder. Its about building bridges and a bridge as you said, you know takes you to somewhere or brings you back in econ speak. Thats about opportunity. Its about reform of social insurance. We once did this in a grand way in our country in the 19th century and in the 20th century, and i think we can do it again. The third is a personal journey, you know in september of 1977. Which is a chronicled event i have in the book the city of youngstown exhibited closure of all of its steel plants. In fact all of a single day september 19th 1977. And never really recovered. That very month and i think that very day i was in my first course in economics principles of economics. And if i think about the arc for me since that time, its been pretty good as it has been for you and many Business People and probably many viewers of this show. But at the same time the things that were so good to me technological advances in globalization that magnified my ability to do things have disrupted the lives of others. I take economics going all the way back to adam smith as being partly a moral discipline my teacher your colleague ben friedman, you know wrote a very powerful book on the moral consequences of Economic Growth growing societies are healthy societies that personal journey has always stuck with me and force me to put the pandy client if i can just pick up on some of the interesting things you said so i would make an observation youre about walls that you said, you know, if theyre theyre very few things that like just really all economists agree on but one of them, is that free trade is basically good you need to protect the losers will come back to that and President Trump put up remarkable barriers to trade in chinas an interesting question. We might come back to but he was doing it to canada doing it to france and some of these barriers to trade are the things president. Biden has not taken down. I mean, i think a lot of people viewed this as President Trump taking a page out of the Democratic Party playbook because Republican Party at all. We stood for free trade and i wonder you know what you think about that, but also i think a lot of a lot of people might look at at the us and say the problem is there arent enough pillows or mattresses to fall on theres not enough social insurance. You mentioned social insurance, but i think certainly when a lot of my progressive friends look at the problem with free trade. Its not its not just that they want to keep the current jobs. Its that they feel those who lost their jobs are sort of been betrayed because our our social insurance systems. So we and and youre you know, one of the worlds leading experts on Public Finance. Do you want to kind of maybe im jumping ahead too much, but it about your bridges of you know, where you see there should be social insurance, you know. Met in its many forms and where you think theres scope for helping people retrain get other jobs. What do you think works . Whats a great question i can and to start on on trade itself or as a larger versions globalization of markets . I think part of the problem here is if you go back to the queen of englands famous question during the financial crisis to the lse of why did nobody see it coming . Yeah, youre right about that and we write about that in the book. Yeah, and i think the queen might if she were sitting in our conversation today say, how could you have Something Like globalization that in the american setting came on faster . The people fought had very long lasting implications had extreme geographical consequences, and then have economists be surprised at the rise of donald trump or other populist politicians, you know, i think it speaks of while as a profession. Weve always understood gainers compensating losers. Its in every freshman textbook. Im sure its in the lecture every viewer heard on International Trade. We havent really focused on it now in the book i talk about two kinds of bridges you asked about social insurance, which i you know term as a reconnection bridge in in the book most of our social Insurance Programs in the United States today fall into two buckets the vast dollars of them are spent on old age programs on medicare and Social Security where we have social insurance in the labor market. Its largely designed for temporary layoffs our programs going back to the 1930s like insurance or designed like that. This is obviously something very different. Were talking about longterm job walks to me. The first goal is preparing people for the next job not putting them on the dole, but we do need social insurance. Thats keyed toward longer term job loss. So i talk about personal reemployment accounts as an example in the book of you know, much larger individual focus on getting people back to work as well as increased support for work. Its its self in things like in the us context the earned income tax credit and then one other form of social insurance you could use the term more broadly is also to think about community, you know, like like most economists. I have always been skeptical of play space aid normally the idea of bringing people to jobs is what makes sense but for a variety of reasons mobility geographical mobility in country is not what we can we may need to think hard about adjusting assistance to communities aimed at restarting business as a kind of social insurance for places if you will, so i think we have to just expand for viewers on one thing youre saying client. I think its incredibly important. Wed always had the view that when were buffeted by globalization people would move i grew up in rochester new york, and im gonna bring you im gonna bring you back to that later you talk about a fascinating in the book about what George Eastman did in rochester new york, but when i grow up in rochester, new york, it was the Silicon Valley of its day it had Eastman Kodak and film and cameras xerox and copy machines vouching loam and bush and lamb in optics and fine equipment, and it was incredibly prosperous and rochester just got hollowed out by globalization competition from japanese one company after another went under when i grew when i was growing up the greater rochester was 600,000 people. I dont know the number exactly today, but it might be 300,000 people but you know, it was it was very painful. It was absolutely globalization, but a lot of people moved and resettled my friends and i i and when we look at the statistics from that period there was a lot of moving i think the statistics still today that 30 of americans live in a state where they werent born compared to europe where i think its three percent of europeans live in a country where they werent born. But that has really changed the statistics on mobility have gotten drastically worse, and thats absolutely you know, as youre saying you you said in a very you know understated way. I think the mobility is gone down. And so when youngstown which you have a beautiful opening chapter in the book about this, you know when when it goes under the people are just stuck there and in this place thats been hollowed out and thats thats you know, a major change thats taken place. Anyway start interrupt you i just wanted to know i i mean you say again, you know an example of where i think weve gone wrong and all this is our efforts. So theres a program dating actually to the kennedy administrations opening the globalization called trade adjustment systems. And the idea of trade adjustment assistance or taa in washington speak is pretty intuitive if you lose your job as a result of foreign competition, you should get some assistance. The problem is it doesnt really matter whether you lose your job to foreign competition with rustic competition or to technology, which is a far bigger disruptor of the labor market. We need to do more to help people get that. Next job taa was talked about by politicians really more when they want to expand trade than actually help people left behind. So weve poured gasoline on the fire of those who want to protect jobs because we really havent offered much of of an alternative. I think that alternative is there. Its right out of econ 101. Weve got to go back. So, why do you think . Walls have become so popular politically. I mean in the old days it used to be. Yeah congress always wanted protectionism, but the president would stop at and it was kind of understood that as long as the Congress People could campaign and tell their constituents. Well, i i tried the president wouldnt allow it and everyone kind of understood that they the bigger game was to keep the economy Rolling Technology move and then i would say particularly with you you certainly speak of this interesting episode when you were head of the council of economic advisors you would just arrived you march in to president bush to say, you know here all the great reasons the steel tariff youre putting in to protect it was pennsylvania is just a terrible idea. Of course, pennsylvania is a big swing state and the election you understood that and you put on a map and you sat here are the jobs youre going to protect here are the where the way more jobs youre going to lose and you lost the argument and you know. But yeah, that was an exception. Not a rule. I think a lot of times you were very successful in arguing for free trade and other people whove been head of the council of economic advisors often speak about that thats been one of the areas where economists are really upheld principles. But boy, is that changed and why do you think it is . What do you think we can do to . Bring it back or i guess thats not a precise statement. What do you think we should be doing . What should we be bringing back . How should we be expanding trade . But building bridges at the same time. Whats a great question, you know is economists were all pretty good at reminding politicians or students or the general public about the value of trade. I dont think thats the issue. I dont think president bush disagreed with me on any of the economic arguments. In fact what he told me after was, you know, i heard everything you said that you didnt give me any way to help the people in wheeling, West Virginia and in pennsylvania, and i think part of the problem and the ease of walls for politician is its very seductive to be able to go into a Community Like youngstown and say, you know what . Im gonna bring the steel mills back. Or President Trump telling coal country. Im going to bring coal back you it sounds nice to say im going to restore the past. Its very comforting to people and the problem is bridges are harder to design and to do but theyre there. So for example if president bush had bought perhaps more about programs to help communities and individuals left behind or if i or other economist it helped him think about that. We might have gotten a very different outcome. And as i said in our country, weve traditionally had bigger ideas here, you know in the middle of the civil war lincolns move for a Land Grant College system was in part about opportunity and part about helping an economy transition from an Agrarian Society to manufacturing society. We once were good at this and we need to go back and think of it. Otherwise were just going to begging for all okay, so, but let me let me make you be more concrete though. What exactly should we be doing . So do you favor Free Community colleges do you favor . You know subsidizing employers who you know hire someone for the first time. I mean, its its absolutely sounds good, but i say again my many progressive friends in cambridge would push back saying you havent found programs at work and until you find things that work. Thank you, you know, were going to protect these jobs. Well, let me start just quickly on the protected jobs thing, you know, i teach in a Business School a very good one and when i talk to students about the job market, im always struck with many of the jobs. Theyd most like to have werent even around 30 years ago. And even for people in the general public that is true, so theres a old expression of who monitors the monitor who watches the watcher and washington is going to decide which jobs are the ones to protect. You know, we have very large gross flows in our labor market and thats very very healthy. A lot of jobs are created a lot of jobs are destroyed. The net is a positive number on average. Thats the way the labor market but thats being so social that speaks to social insurance having much and thats what you do on top of that. Yeah. I want to start with preparation. So you have specifically Community Colleges are interesting way to tease out the difference between i think more riggers thinking and sloppy thinking so sloppy thinking is the idea that free tuition is the answer. If you go back to the setup of the Land Grant Colleges the idea was to build things and fund them in modern terms. Wed call that block grants Austin Goolsby and Melissa Carney and i had suggested a couple of years ago a significant federal block grant for Community Colleges.