Transcripts For CSPAN2 Antony Blinken Examines Effectiveness

CSPAN2 Antony Blinken Examines Effectiveness Of Obama Administrations Asia Pivot April 1, 2017

I also do want to thank both of you, though, in all seriousness for the superb stewardship of this conference. I understand its been basically been a year in the making and thats extraordinary and even more extraordinary the work that its produced, some of it which i have had a chance to see in a world with uncertainty, there are a few more important tasks right now than giving a platform to the next generation of scholars and policymakers, after all, who is going to help us get it right. We are looking to all of you and the work that youre doing could not be more valuable, could not be more timely. So i want to say a special welcome and a special thanks to all the conference participators and all of you, all of you stand at the scholarship of asia. It may be hard to imagine right now. Theres going to be a time when all you want to do is go back to school. After 21 years in public service, im very fortunate to be back in school and particular here at the john hopkins, very fortunate to be part of a re remarkable community. I spent the better part of the majority of time in the obamabiden years in the white house as security council. As many of as you know, this committee convenes daily in the white house. We debate options and formulate policy recommendations for the president and the cabinet. It was an intensely robust and rich process that insured as best we could to try the navigate a wide range of risks from terrorism to ebola and reassert American Leadership and now about two and a half years ago i was leading the white house to move over the state department and just before i left i was sitting with then president obama and i asked him, what did he want me to focus on in the new assignment as tp secretary of state and we didnt lack for priorities or opportunities leading a coalition of 66 countries to defeat isil, resisting russian aggression in ukraine, the list goes on and on and given everything that we hat on our plates, i wanted to get guidance on the president , is there one thing that you want me to focus on. His answer is immediate, asia. When i got to the department, i asked the same question of secretary of state kerry and happily i got the same answer. I think it was clear evidence that both the president and secretary kerry attached to the region and again with very good reason no. Where in world are the economic and strategic opportunities of the United States clearer or more compelling than in the asia pacific. Its home to four of top 10 trading commerce, five of treaty allies and the Worlds Largest and Fastest Growing economies including 40 of all Global Growth and soon two third, twothirds of the worlds middle class. Of course, some of the most wired and innovative people on earth. I think what the president understood was that the rise of asia which had already done so much to lift millions of people out of poverty would help define the next century. But, by what rules, by which means, to what ends . Those with the vital questions to answer. And he understood that it was profoundly in the interest of the United States to my a leading role in answering those questions and that had to start by making sure that the energy, the resources, the focus we devoted to the region were commensurate with its importance and thats what the replans was all about. Over the course of nine trips, the Asia Pacific Region in two years as i was secretary of state, dozens of strategic dialogues, i saw firsthand the growing dividends that president obama rebalance to the region to strengthen a rules based institutions based order. First, we invested in our core alliances, japan, south korea, the philippines, australia, we signed a Posture Agreement with australia in 2014 and the landmark with the philippines, we deepen our engagement and, of course, that start with china. Its important the replans was not directed at china, it included china and so we work today build a relationship with china that was defined by broader and deeper practical engagement on issues that matter today both of us and if it whether it was the Iran Nuclear Agreement trying to play a Critical Role to, of course, Climate Change dealing together with ebola, working together to train diplomats from afghanistan, the range became quite remarkable and one of the things that was really a hallmark specially thecouple of years is the increase amount of work we were able to do with china in third countries N Development area. I think thats incred my promising to the future. At the same time it was very important that we confront very directly clearly openly our differences which are real. And try if not to resolve them at least to manage them, again, through very clear dialogue specially when it comes to the South China Sea where chinas conduct for undermining the freedom of navigation and free throw of commerce that we depend upon. There to i would have to say the quality of our dialogue, even where we disagreed got to a new level. Even as we were work to go build this stronger and deeper relationship with china while dealing with our differences, we were engaging other emerging powers, countries like vietnam and burma that were starting to turn the page on the past. Today the u. S. And vietnam are broadening our own ties in areas that we couldnt imagine ten years ago from military cooperation to human rights to peacekeeping. Third, these organizations were important for promoting collective action, facilitating cooperation and the peaceful resolution and differences and advance a region economic political and Security Architecture in which the United States is a vital and permanent player. Fourth, we vigorously promoted trade and Investment Opportunities design today unlock shares, prosperity and, of course, the heart of that strategy was the Transpacific Partnership agreement, which would have brought 12 apec countries and 40 of the worlds gdp together with high labor and environment standards. I have to say that perhaps the biggest disappointment that ive had on substantive policy issues over the last months was the decision of the new administration to withdraw from ttp. Its not only an economic mistake, its a strategic one. It weakness not strengths the United States and strengths, not weakness competitors. Without u. S. Leadership in trade and investment, others l fill the gap and write the rules, rules that will be far less effective in leveling the Playing Field for our businesses and protecting workers, sustaining the environment, safe guarding intellectual property and transparency. And when you really think about it and step back, these kind of agreements, specially negotiated to the highest standard which is exactly what ttp was, they have to be part of our future. 925 of the worlds consumer, world market is beyond our borders. We would be tieing our hands and shortchanging our future if we cant find ways to engage through trade and investment. Fifth, we enhanced our military posture in the region increasing the security capacity of allies and partners rotating american personal into new and more places Like Northern australia and new sites in the philippines. Finally, we stood up for our values to the basic rights and freedoms of individuals throughout the region in support of burmas historic elections and peaceful transition of power we helped establish the first nonpartisan, independent organization for observation, we trained over 11,000 Political Party members. We also expressed our strong concern about discrimination and violence experienced by minorities including the population in state and stressed that the rule of law must be equally applied to all. I had the opportunity to go to vermont on a couple of occasions during this period and it is one of the most remarkable challenging transformations anywhere on earth. Its incredibly uplifting on level but we cant lose sight on how difficult it is at the same time. Let me finally pause on one aspect of the rebalance that, i think, merits a brief consideration and that was the effort to also create within all of this new geometries of tri lateral and a multilateral kind, new networks to encourage pop rights among allies and the heart of this was a robust Trilateral Partnership that we forced among United States and korea under which, among other things we convened the trilateral form at secretary level. I had the opportunity to do it six times as deputy secretary. Through it we helped cultivate a Partnership Global in scope and impact engaging civil society, communities, business, science, academia, our cybersecurity experts worked together to protect infrastructure and officials and our Energy Experts collaborated on accelerating technology, Health Experts worked together to look at new ways to combat cancer, the list goes on and on and it was one of the things that gave me tremendous satisfaction because working together in common cause really multiplied the effectiveness that the United States could even bring to the table and it also had the beneficial impact of bringing south korea and japan, our two closest partners the region closer together. Above all, and i will conclude with this, we shared a common purpose in addressing the regions most acute threat, the threat posed by north korea. It is in many ways the most urgent, certainly the gravest challenge that we face. In some ways its a relic from the for past, command economy and International Isolation that once shrouded so many countries during the cold war and most have moved forward. North korea and the regime refuse today step out of the shadows in the past. This is regime that denies citizens basic rights, imposes a system of surveillance and censorship repressive it really has no comparison in the modern age and even people who think they may be safe in this regime, excuse me, of the elite are not as it turns out as we have seen from rein of internal affairs. Over the past year, in particular, kim jong un has accelerated the effort to develop Ballistic Missile married with Nuclear War Head could reach the United States. Two Nuclear Tests and 30 missile tests later over the past year, north korea is closer than ever before to putting that capability in the hands of a leader to acts to put it charitably impulsively and maybe even irrationally and may not be bound by the rules of the term. As we look at this, we did not find a quick military fix to the challenge by north korea. As many of you know, north korea missile complex is concealed underground, inside mountains, some places unknown to our intelligence. Meanwhile one area where the country is making rapid sprog with mobile missiles power bid solid fuel that can be hidden, rolled out and prepared to launch within a matter of minutes. Even if we had an effective preemptive strike capacity, the consequences of using it could be prohibiting. One could decimate south koreas capital. So where does that leave us . Ultimately it leaves us with some kind of negotiated settlement that at least in my judgment, first freezes and then rolls back north Koreas Nuclear program, much as we did with iran. Now, the big downside, of course, of a monitored freeze as a fist step is that it leaves in place north koreas very teenagers existing capacity, but it would prevent north korea from testing its missiles and nuclear devices, thats critical to further progress for its capacities. It would enhance our knowledge of the program through inspectors and it would create some time and space to see if we could negotiate a comprehensive roll back of the missile program. Such an agreement could at the end of the day encloud the peace treaty that jung un said it wants. Until now, kim jong un has refuse today take this path whereas arguably his father and grandfather saw north Koreas Nuclear assets as a bargaining chip. Kim jong un seems to see them only regime policy. What, if anything, can change that calculus and convince him to come to the negotiating table in good faith. I think the best answer we can give is that its possible, far from certain, maybe not even probable, but possible that a truly comprehensive, truly sustained and relentless International Pressure campaign led by the United States south korea, japan and ideally china that raises the price where he believes survival is in reperkedy because he can no longer pay for weapons, that could have effect on convincing him to change his strategic calculus. That, of course, has to change with china which north korea has the closest of economic relationships, virtually all of north korea, trade, investment goes through, from china. There may be some truth to that that the influence has diminished but the the influence has diminished the actual lerchl has not if they choose to exercise by curving import as china did with coal. Beijing can exert unique pressure. It made a good start but it has to do more. In fact, thetrip that i took in my old job was to beijing to work on exactly that issue. That the qualitative improvements of the program had taken it to a new level and that just as taiwan is in chinas words a core interest for beijing, now, north korea and the threat that it poses is a core interest of the United States, as a result we told our chinese friends, we will take every step necessary to defend and the treaty partners that we are sworn to protect including deployment system like the infamous thaad system and sanctions against any entity and individual including from china whose economic supports regime and ambitions. We made it clear that none of these steps would be aimed at china, but at tend of the day, we have to do whats necessary to protect ourselves and our partners from a growing threat. That in the way was the most visible part in the pressure campaign. But as important in my judgment in possibly getting us to where we want to go is what we were doing around the world with the rest of the world. It got a lot less attention, less visibility but working in weekly and i mean this coordination with south korea and japan, we identified and then sought to sever the Political Economic and diplomatic ties that it enjoys around the world. We went from country to country, africa, asia and the middle east and europe asking them, pressing them, urging them to sever these ties. And we got results. Gone are the days when north koreas National Airline has similar unfettered access to international airports. Gone are the days when north korea workers can send remittences back home with impunity not to feed their families but to feed the regimes military and Nuclear Programs. To date by our best estimate, these efforts against in very close coordination with south korea and japan cut in half highlevel north Korean Exchange s other countries and possibly deprive the regime of several hundred Million Dollars in renew. Pursuing this effort should be in my judgment one of the Trump Administrations most urgent missions. Again, at the end of the day whether it actually succeeds in clanging the calculus, i cant say with any certainty. We just dont know. We do know that of all of the options before us, it probably offers the best path forward and while north korea and iran are very very, very different, the basic approach pursue systemically comprehensively in a sustained way can get results. It is a little bit remarkable that this needs to be said in 2017 but closely coordinated campaigns to preserve the National Security of the United States and that of our ol lies are not possible without daily diplomacy, a word that sometimes false into disfavor but one out of our greatest sources of strength. We need that daily diplomacy, we need sustained global engagement. We need robust, confident, wellfunded diplomacy starting with the state department and an empowered group of Foreign Service officers. In my experience, diplomacy is not incidental to our countrys strength, prosperity and security, its intrinsic, indeed. Entering the oval office when it was a bit isolated on the world stage, president obama knew the risks of ignoring and president obama recognize that had the international system, however, imperfect, however frustrating, is not a threat to our interests but rather a logical indispensable extension of those interests. As deputy secretary youre not supposed to have secretary but i have to admit that vietnam was one of the places i most like to travel to and in many ways the young people sound just like their brothers and sisters right here and silicon valley. The exact same energy, same passion, the same talent, same curiosity, the same occasional frustrations with government for moving to slowly. On that trip, i had the privilege to speaking to several hundred students at Vietnam International university, a talk that i was told the first by u. S. Visiting official that was life streamed uninterrupted and unedited online. At the end of the speech, i spent some time taking questions and i have to tell you, they were smart, they were tough, they were probing. One student asked me whether we would maintain our engagement with asia in the next administration, another asked about the future of the program that you know about, a network thats now 67,000 strong that conn

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