December 7th as the strategic surprise with the expansion of influence even at the expense of the of major power war but the nationalistic and division is china has a larger sphere of influence. The president s is looking to restore to greatness and preserve the Chinese Communist party in addition to a comprehensive reforms challenging existing global rules to push back a preponderant of power. To invest in paramilitary modernization that seeks to establish control with the east and South China Sea. The of whether chinas trajectory with aid to war although experts disagree but with the potential impact to go back on u. S. Forces over 74 years ago many cited between the United States and japan was inevitable. Said to steer down the crucial and also to inform a broader audience. Is the you understand as the micro the sewage and then to tell us more and what that means for the world spirit he by air appreciate the american and also to stake you for this. And we were stranded out beyond the beltway in the torrential and got there two hours late he let us go into office and they redecorated. [laughter] but its he did better than his hospitality. But today is due to talk about an issue that i think is one of the most precious pressing issues of our time to be front and center in the 2016 president ial of a and to put and i discuss these fiends whether survey eric history bears the first three the anniversary of the pearl harbor attack so with that the of the book itself and chinas rise of the historical parallels in Imperial Japan in the 30s and 40s and to show you one key difference. That may be the difference but they make the biggest zero fed reduces to produce. But one of the most important thing is to go out and talk to the expert is preparation to be close to the top experts said in the world but what is interesting about the bucket was such a Broad Spectrum of opinion. And those of the people that im amazed at how willing they are able to do this. With the 70 hours of footage but the wisdom to paint the course of my own alternately but it is an interesting experience. And with serious policy lot and an analyst, when i tried to use due do with the brighter around the world. I have written it but moore of the of your best bet. But today i think it is valuable outside of your expertise to convince them whether it is congress but to think about the problem away that is accessible. And one that is straight out of the international relations. Sova what is the intentions . And there is those intentions looking at the capability question. We dont and aft to and we have some serious issues but also looking at the strategy that china is adopting as what it says says the war and ahead that is very much with japan was all about. So we get through the strategys and then the i. R. A. And to go through the flashpoints South China Sea or north korea or taiwan but the most important part of the whole effort is to cut out how do you prevent. No question about that. As the british to the boards and putin does the same thing today using coercion that still has a lot to this day through that humiliation the germans and french were brutal the u. S. Was right there her. In that interview the attitude was never again. Sosa aid day new need to do that. And then from the fine work with the red star over the pacific basically is a look at china is power through the islands of the father of the American Navy and the counterpart in china through basically saw early on saw the need for a globalized navy. And in order for a global power to prosper you should have some command and control. No question they would build their navy from those purposes and that is okay. But the problem comes about but it is one thing to build the offensive weapons it is another the dent in lies the tale. With those imperial of japan. It is fascinating. Ended is day ps that they seem to take territory from their neighbors there isnt a lot of difference between Imperial Japan and china is a vision. They control tie one and on the eve of pearl harbor to drive the of british ad and singapore out of the philippines. So if you look at china it puzzles me why americans think theyre not upset. To talk bohol preposterous but they claim from the east china sea. And even claims the continental shelf. And theres no question has the intention from its neighbors. But then the other parallel is that in order to do that. To share that fear as it was the barrier he has the barrier to china today. Into a set up a perimeter to keep us out it it just wants to push us out so you can see the parallel. No question on the intention question the chinese have told us so go to capabilities there is a hubris here in the beltway and end nobody can mess with us. Let me count the ways. My interview with him talkedabout cut china has the most aversive theres so they have than Running Water all the way down because we dont know how to go back up but they started missile. That is the comparatively vintage. Pleven he resigned from their. But then you move funds from their. Path i had an interesting talk about mine warfare. That is the grandfathers lie. En to walk me through how all of a lion on the bottom in tour then with this every your Aircraft Carrier to use a new house and hour through the water. Is our serious in to 10 but may be you know, the in english first is the french but then the oilers had to produce them in their own shipyard. There are submarines are in now. Now they try to knock out the weather satellites that but to develop all those capabilities is because they induced demand but it is period destabilizing. If we dont know if youre launching Nuclear Missiles but the chinese dont think like that. China sees that as another front and lastly there is cyberwarfare which with the pentagon the f22 the f35 the Management System you name it and go down the list and that gets back to the hubris of the United States of superiority of their dealing a weapon systems with so there is the three warfares he was kind enough to have me out at his house and the medias psychological and legal better growing very rapidly. So if china never approaches us in terms of technology with asymmetric warfare in with 10 million that is able to hit the Aircraft Carrier and we can build many more but talk about that point that parallel that was a the predecessor essentials a. The japanese new day had to out range the opponents bad intentions and strong capabilities said is aimed to push out. Or one of the fascinating things but this is very relevant the ada is said to put up by hard shield to keep this out but then we have the white house and then with some of flashpoints, start with north korea. And they provide 40 percent of the fuel but they dont do that. But to be a represents most the this is of destruction we have had with that bushs administration was still sitting back then. So if in 2003 so what did number three ahead to . A fatah of the civilian reactor the centrifuge of that with that material to places we can no longer find. That is the day they became a nuclear power. But to get to where they are they will get further but one of the most chilling interviews was john hopkins university. They would get pretty good at seattle. And did is say trigger point that it is 1. Three square miles of territory but it is on the flank of taiwans. To turn that into the ability for japan. We already has seen what happened in 2012 with china and nationalism that is a flashpoint. That is the claim that began in 1947 to 80 percent of the shot glass South China Sea the warships there now as we speak which china tries to turn it into a artificial territory. Then you have the issue of taiwans china calls it a renegade province and islands were there really depressed and afraid. They see china slowly like a price on circling that may no longer have the resolve. I interviewed one professor he proposed a grand bargain for peace everywhere else. And the fact and in the 50s. Is there is a lot of reasons not just about the morality your the efforts but they said it best if youd give that away and it was bottled up. In china claims it devastates of india. Lead when push comes to shove by donau but the Biggest Issue is the actual water if you go to the plateau the entire Southeast Asia their building dams is doing all sorts of things you have indiana and china constraints those are the flash points. Here is where i will finish up. But those of the ones were depending on now. In to talk about how eloquent and why we should not do that with the most vibrant area of the world 70 of Economic Growth although Michael Greene points out correctly the Pacific Ocean is not a barrier. There is the reason why we have bases there with a continental Ballistic Missile those that help us track and beecher that threat. So the isolationism will be very attractive because sheriff smith said you have to be there. That Economic Engagement argument is simply go back to 1914 to see that same rhetoric between kaiser germany and france and all that. And for those of you who know him but he had a great line to underestimate the people to do stupid stuff. But there is a more subtle argument that has to do with the type of trade if you have a country like china dependent on Natural Resources that increases the prospect one of the reasons the jury went to war in a wooded embargo the food then france try to take the iron ore. Now those Nuclear Deterrence this is the artist to think about if you school beyond the stability and stability paradox if you have stability at the Nuclear Level with that second strike reaches have to get one of those places and that deters us should day ago went to taiwans and both make a compelling argument that that Nuclear Strike capability that it opens the door for conventional war in asia. That is something that should give you pause so the last thing is what do we do . The interesting fame is the unifying thought comes from the chinese themselves is shown to me by two people who cannot have two more different outlooks. Intels barry does a lot of work for the pentagon. They brought up the notion of comprehensive National Power. That if youre going to deter china and maintain a presence this country has to have comprehensive National Power it is unjust about building weapons. Sitting here from u. S. China commission but the idea that it all starts of the Strong Economy you have to have a Strong Economy to generate the growth and wage increase to afford your military hardware in defense what kills us now with our economy is the unfair trade practice. Over the 50 years we lost 70,000 taxes. We are growing at 2 instead of 3. 5 . If we were we would not have any of this conversation. That is life on easy street. Not just dealing with the economics that creates the innovation really that is so critical and you need a Business Climate you cannot have a tax system that drives the companys offshore and in to make decisions in realtime and we dont have that now. We have a system in the sense we had elections but were not making any of those tough decisions to be dominated by big money and by the ideological split in the system that gave to congress this is why this president ial election is so important if we dont deal with china as the top issue in dont understand the need so the left that focuses on trade and jobs or military hardware real not have a meeting of the mind. So i would urge you with the American People this is the dialogue added is technological flashpoints and solutions. So then i will turn back to patrick. [applause] the book is full load chapters even though it in 30 minutes or less western to the professor of strategy from Asia Pacific Studies from Newport Island with that maritime studies institute. Thanks for having me here. Excellent book. What we are about to do is to use day jumping off point to make my own observation and interactions. This is the issue of what it is about. That capability is in the interaction between china and United States so with regard to the capabilities it cover is of great deal that has sections to survey all those capabilities but what it underscores that is occurring in chinas military it is befuddled and surprised and then the chinese claim that is perforated in september. And with those of others in to how by a it is all about operational flexibility. And then to a hit glom. With the airfield thank commandandcontrol indeed it is capable to get moving targets with other large surface combatants so it is also of a dual capable this cassette that Nuclear Stability question to use multiple types of conventional warheads and finally that missile can launch it doesnt have to be underprepared site in the advance depending on the operational circumstances but the highlight is an odious china in joining a growing arsenal, i am not saying rivet the attention as it will be the highlight the is an additional tool in the toolbox. I want to spend most of my time of a great power war between china and the United States and im not making a judgment but to highlight what we should be you about with tour more living forces. Each has an agency of its own that they will do their best to outmaneuver the adversary so i could highlight the interaction rethink about extend the perimeter as far as possible even in beijing there recognized china is vulnerable especially with the coastline where they Economic Centers are located and to extend that perimeter to keep the United States at arms length that prevents them from getting in range. And that suggests into the heart of the western pacific as well as the indian ocean but they need to fight effectively as we saw you can imagine that goes out to the Second Island chain. At the same time and passed to develop those capabilities to launch attacks with enemy firepower. That is the competition that disenroll of sanctuaries. It is increasingly clear with the basis of allied so real but what we are recognizing as to lose their value as a sanctuary. At the same time we are confronted with the political dilemma if this is off limits or not. To deprive the United States depending on those strategic circumstances. But that is what was identified in the books here is of mutual quest all sides this is understandable because of of bloody protracted war but i do agree with his judgment budget is of possibility that the historical record but for example, in the stages of of conflict with firepower on both sides. They are searching for their quick defenses to stun each other. And then to impose ones rule of the other. To escalate things with intellectual energy. And it is tragic and what does it mean for the United States . That you need to think asymmetrically. To make sure the chinese cannot repair without Research Says dedicated. Something working on for quite a few years. And to turn the tables on china that day would need for their strategic objectives but those is as i see it that many are high quality friends from what they dont have and they dont have reliable allies for when things go south here is another intangible. In to defend access to the Global Economy is very powerful idea by contrast to make excessive maritime should pay difference to the prerogative. It is too many of chinas smaller neighbors. But those symmetries that they can play up. With the permit conditions that is why the United States needs to maintain your wife in the lead. Thank you very much. Distinguished career includes policy achievements they cute pet tricks and things for having me. Patrick is an excellent book. The book crouching tiger clarifies of the current military trade and Strategic Policy and that perception of the relations with the United States. What is at stake in the u. S. China relationship on this side of the pont american jobs and businesses in friendships with japan and korea and indonesia with the South China Sea. And with that rule of law in a play. With a wide range of policy questions. Said geopolitical and limitations and it is how we might manage this relationship going forward. To exercise accommodation and it turns out a mile diplomacy will not like china like us. With cybertheft to tell a sad story in december 2015 census started to collect trade data in the early 70s. In october with the trade balance and dash 32. 9 billion. With the domestic nationalism to protect values the cutting edge and navarro has identified the three warfares so allow me to expand. It combines psychological and react and bogus lot to form is threedimensional fighting process. But to acquire it territory in project national will the three warfares are by other means. And extending back and fighting 2,000 years ago but when china looks out what does this the . The United States it is used to counter projections with the military strategy in the South China Sea. Of point well developed in peters book. And tinker its trustees strategic position and by setting the terms of putting it is the mechanism to structure the Campaign Environment with the vintage. T