Transcripts For CSPAN2 Book Discussion On The Hundred-Year M

CSPAN2 Book Discussion On The Hundred-Year Marathon February 22, 2015

Simple world to American Foreign policy since americas preeminence after the Second World War and based on a very simple binary. Who can we bomb . Who can retake out to lunch . So china is a unique country because they went from being a country that belonged on the two bomb list to take out to lunch list. And it has become a lunch so therefore it has become far more interesting. Before we get started with michaels comment and i am questionandanswer with him and then open it to questions and answers from all of you we have a message of some congressmen randy foltz, chairman of the china caucus in the house of representatives dared he could not join us in person, but his message to life in his comments will be read out by my colleague, carolyn stewart. As secretary of the hudson and two. [inaudible] its a pleasure to have an opportunity to share brief thought on the hundredyear marathon and the contributions of dr. Michael pillsbury to the internment is the important debate about the future trajectory of chinese power. I have long valued the insights on china and the asiapacific region. The combined knowledge of chinese history culture and politics with an understanding of u. S. Security and the tools required to protect those interests. Whether its a congressional staffer, member of multiple president ial Administration Consultant to the pentagons assessment for Hudson Institute scholar. Dr. Pillsbury has rendered important contributions to the understanding of china and its longterm relationship with the United States. Part of what makes the hundredyear marathon such a unique contribution to literature and American Relations is the evolution of the issue. Rather than simply choosing the camp and sinking comfortably within it as happens far too often on important issues mike c. Is on china changed as the facts on the ground changed here it is honesty let him see china as a longterm competitor at the united date requiring eras application of longterm competitive strategies. He has been a powerful voice articulating what the strategy should look like. As we look at the century ahead its more important than ever the u. S. Look to the u. S. China relationship holistically and in the context of a longterm extended competition that will play out over multiple areas and over the course of many years. Im committed to ensuring the presence in the asiapacific particularly the military round remains robust and his continual evolving to meet new challenges. Areas like unmanned aviation, the u. S. Enduring advantage in the domain and our advantage and emerging technologies must be appropriately resourced. I want to thank you all for the work you do in promoting a strong u. S. National defense and a continued u. S. Presence in the asiapacific. Its americas commitment to the region that is done so much to ensure peace and prosperity for the last seven decades. We have an opportunity to put in place policies that allow the present to endure another seven decades and beyond. This is an important book by a serious thinker in the field and its recommendations offer much for policymakers to consider. Thank you for allowing me to share a few thoughts and i think Mike Pillsbury for his invaluable contribution. Hardback what i would like Michael Pillsbury to start off about his book. As i see it, michael the question in your book is a discussion of the china dream and how the u. S. May have unwittingly or unwittingly helped fulfill that you. A good starting point for your conversation with us with the describing as you see it as he understood it over the years and also to answer the critical question which is what is the china dream is to replace us just as the British Empire without firing a single shot. Michael pills very, welcome to this discussion. The mac thank you ambassador haqqani. But answer your question about the china dream bike leaning a few things in the book that i think are new evidence about chinas secret daddy g for what china calls 100 year marathon. This is not my idea. I also point out today that chinese believe correctly that we area near 65 of the 100 year marathon. That means 34 more years to go. So theres a lot of things on the american side i propose in the last chapter that we can do. They are related to what the china dream is because to some degree, what you might call the American Dream and the china dream are compatible. It is not a zerosum you cant have your train if i want to have my dream. The overlap is the focus of number of organizations in washington d. C. That i not only praise, i say we have to ask and their budget. They have to do more. Instead of praising the darkness and the candles already going. I love several of the last chapter of the recommendations. Number one the National Endowment for democracy has done a great deal in china, has to do a great deal more. Its budget became very low. It has same president has always had. Hes like a lifetime president of the national and dummy for these. Needed numbers reaches and has seen his budget grow 10 times bigger than in the beginning. He attended the oslo ceremony valeo shovel received the peace prize and was not in there because you is in jail. I say a lot about the chinese ring and when i met him at the tian an men square demonstration. Teen ambassador at the time come up your thompson and i drove down to Tiananmen Square in the embassy cadillac with the flags going, got out of the car went in to see the students. No one knew of course. No one knew what was going to happen. They appear to be a peaceful demonstration at Tiananmen Square against corruption of all things. We met with the others. But remember he is a chain smoker. Here at evish glasses on. When the president of the National Endowment for democracy went to oslo he had many other countries who were either there or not there was your attention in china. The china dream is in fact have what they call the harmonization or harmony in the world. Their position is when this happens by 2049 if not sooner all countries will get along and there wont be organizations like the National Endowment for democracy. There also will not be trouble from human rights watch, from Amnesty International especially not radio free asia which some people in the room helps me create radio free asia in 1989. Resisted strongly by the state department. This will destroy u. S. China relations if we broadcast in mandarin about human rights and democracy in various things in china. I dont want to give all these organizations named. The u. S. Chamber of commerce has recently joined up. Peashooter report about the gangster is stationed in china. Trade secrets being the one. Chinese companies treated in a favorable way. American companies not. The china dream seems to be quite comprehensive. They say dont worry. China will not be the hegemon will not be a tyrannical country and ruined the world america has been. Want to mention chinese means you although remember and keep with you. They are important to understand chinese thinking. One of them is off. It also means tyrants. It is the way america leads the world. The china, when it has double or tripled our economy, today has surpassed us according to World Bank Last month through the chinese economist arrive by 2030. It will be doubled. The chinese economy will be double us by 2030 and by 2049 the end of the 100 year marathon for the books title chinas economy will be triple or more our economy. But they say china will not eat at that time. China will use its virtue soft power and perhaps the military forces when theres disharmony and countries do not go along with the virtuous leadership. This is all part of their vision of the china dream that in some books they actually talk openly about the american model how americas surpassed england, Great Britain without firing a shot by a series of techniques to chinese believe their studies of American British relations have shown them. Theres one book in particular called the eclipse of britain a british professor who explains in london for the 100 year marathon americans ran against england, there was an antiamerican faction that said dont let these americans get out of hand. We have to crush them or use force against them in the caribbean and panama during the time of theater is about you also a proamerican faction that said america is just like us. Theyre surpassing this is no big deal because they arrest in the chinese view things the marathon should not have the use of force is part of it ideally. They are quite sensitive in their writings to who is due in the period who is the healthy forests . A friend of china someone needs to be supported and praised them visit beijing and who is an unhealthy forests . Who is trying to setback a 100 year marathon process . That is a whole chapter i give him what i call the Message Police that is actually becoming more and more difficult. It is more and more difficult to get just the straight facts about u. S. China relations because theyre so much spin applied by either the Chinese Government itself or americans who claim to have an enlightened understanding of u. S. China relations. Thats kind of a long and other and if i remember after i wouldnt give such a long and very. Im trying to get into why i wrote the book how the chinese thing, how much i borrowed from their own writings to have slain in a sympathetic way this is their dream in some countries in americans and art nations are in the way of the 100 year marathon. They have harsh treatment in mind for those organizations. Great. The very first chapter of your book is titled wishful thinking. It starts up at the incident involving the chinese artists trying to correct the pronunciation but you know what i am becoming more like americans now. You know how they say if you know several languages come a peanut to your bilingual and if you only know one american, youre american. [laughter] id aladha good jokes about americans. Tell us about the incident and my ledger book with it. My wife and i admire them in loving chinese art. A lot of chinese tong nine e. Sculptures and chinese delegations come and save you china you could give it back to the motherland. China has 150 billionaires chinese art is going up in value. This particular artists performed something called the exploding Christmas Tree about a month before christmas my wife susan had been the cochair of the gala that raised 2 million for a National Asian art museum and the next day, secretary of state clinton gave an award and there was a big payment made to this artist to blow up an american Christmas Tree on the National Mall. Everybody applauded including me. Big crowd here is your officials. Secretary clinton hold of this memo for contributing to diplomacy for our. I wondered, how can this be . Why are we paying so much money to blow up the Christmas Tree so close to christmas on the National Mall . As i say i was applauding. Then with the help of one of the defectors. I discussed six defectors in the book in disguise. One hopes we check out the artist and i found all kinds of things that i had not known where think the smithsonian or state department give it is quite a nationalistic guy. He talked about 9 11 as an artistic start goal to behold and he said his Favorite Book was a book called unrestricted warfare about how to use terrorism and cyberattacks to bring america to its knees by two chinese colonels who i talk about in the book there is the socalled hawk faction. Beginning with the story i would show how susan and i try to help chinese art how we go in good faith to see the show and how we learned theres a bigger story here than we realize. In many ways hes having a little fun with us. We pay him in as part of a larger story than on traditions mark twain has the great novels called adventures of tom sawyer and one of tom sawyers immortal tricks as close to chinese strategy. He has to whitewash a fence. Hes been fun ash fork. But he tricks his friends into painting the fence for him. How does he do that . He appeals to them. Only the best person can paint this fence. You cant have the brush and mail it to learn chinese nonaction to control through nonaction. Part of another concept we could all say you sure are smart. Flux or situation are doing things earlier than the other guy can do them. So tom sawyer getting his friends to paint the fence for him is all part of the same idea. Hes the other countries for Search Technology to win the 100 year marathon. I try to show one year of the defectors told us this is what china is doing. An extract from the book are we americans dont see china the way it sees us. A condition for decades. Nature proverb that says in full view for a more practical terms in plain sight. As one of the 36 strategies and essays from ancient chinese folklore. All of these are designed to defeat the mobile component by using the own against him without him knowing hes even in a contest. Explain. Will. Well, part of the reason the title of the book the hundredyear marathon, subtitled the hundredyear marathon chinas secret strategy to replace america as the global superpower. This is not openly declared strategy. Use a line from an american movie called the fight club. The first rule of fight club is you dont talk about fight club. China does not openly describe the strategy. They are very sensitive about being exposed. It goes back to a secret quote that chairman mao himself told other leaders in 1955 and repeated a couple more times to have a very hard time getting the quote of the chinese. The quote from now is chinas greatest contribution to all mankind is going to be to catch up and surpass america. Now tells us all access will take us from 50 to 75 years, but weve got to do it. He begins fully from the soviet model in the communes, 20 to 40 Million People died to make it onto the new approach of the secret strategy. We need to follow many aspects of the american model. We need the americans to paint our fence for us. How can we do that . To do a lot of analysis and realized Im Technology investment exports to america, giving companies that come in and provide hightech china, all of this package weve got to get it if we will implement chairman maos concept. They begin to do that in 1969 with four chinese generals write a memo to mao. They say we need to follow the example of the three kingdoms 280. We need to bring the americans over. We need to bring nixon to beijing. At this point, nixon and kissinger are issuing antichina comment by president nixon gives a press conference figure 69. But in the Ballistic Missile Defense System china not the soviet union. In his new book, kissinger reveals five times the chinese invite nixon to come to china. Five times the americans either dont get the message or turn it down. It is in kissingers book. Specifically at one point a letter i didnt believe existed. It is a letter from the chinese to president nixon. Please come to china. Onepage letter in the archives, the original still there. Kissinger says return of down because it was too risky. The problem understanding chinas secret strategies until these documents are declassified on both sides we dont know how the secret strategy bpm and how its working out. I got the security review authorities that declassify these documents in the american president ial decision and also part of the chinese story became to come out. I hope others will follow me and try to trace the secret strategy. It is denied by the chinese at first. Then you say what about the book by general on the memo of the four generals. What about the americans not taking the initiative to open china the china open up america. Chinese officials of scholars say yes, how did you know that . We make progress unraveling the true history of the secret strategy on the chinese side. These sickly it is declared land and americans think that their china that is not necessarily that clear than 36 stratagems in folklore and something that goes back to 280. Hes history. It doesnt matter. Powell this country understand that another country that thinks in 100 year terms . We are lucky people can have an eight year plan when a president gets elected for the first time and assumes he will get reelected. How does america do with this . Been what i tried to do was put the issue of china and meredith of our relations with china on the president ial Election Debate agenda for 26. Mitt romney has a chapter on china in his book, no apology. Romney brings up we need to be more competitive with china. But there is not much of a debate. What i would like to see in 2016 is our media who would really dominate the issues. If Everybody Knows Judy Woodruff and jim lehrer and fox news will raise the topic in the president ial debate, you better be ready. If the media starts saying what is this all about, is china doing these things to us . Are we naive and gullible . Will get our president ial candidates to become engaged at the top experience so far only two have talked about it. Elizabeth moran has a comment on mine were elizabeth ward is talking about removing jobs and how they invest deeply and infrastructure. She gives a percentage of gdp. Shes admiring the chinese model. If only america could be like that. It is quite good. The title is roughly we used to be like that. There is a similar book by richard hollis, called Foreign Policy begins at home. Expection on china competing with china. The idea of fair but not yet a president ial issue because they are going to collapse is very backwards. It are. Can look down on non. But besides we open up china. For the ones responsible. That narrative is all wrong in my view. I tried to show with the new evidence in this book. China and south oksana. I think thats a president ial candid

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