Transcripts For CSPAN2 Book Discussion On The Road To Global

CSPAN2 Book Discussion On The Road To Global Prosperity June 22, 2014

Absolutely. What i would say briefly is i think as a christian i want to see deflowering of forms of love of self and love of neighbor in a variety of different ways across a variety of different bounders and borders that hits at the human level. Our problem in this country is we have the white gorman of gays as the standard. For example, we see a couple walking down the street, black and white couple and another couple black and black, some how we get more excited about the blackandwhite periods aho. Is the same status. The problem is that will put more value on the interracial. Not only that is like a lot of these human beings who are results of this relationship, the level relationship and their father provided challenge. Usually there are associated with being highly successful which is not true. We were talking before. I am teaching a course. This bookstore is theft providing 150 books. I am embarrassing new, but it is true. Three books in that class on friday night. But in that prison, they are in there. The only ones in the white house that is not true. They would catch hell. It is a human thing with all of the other structures of domination of operating. It is as if we can reach the point. In brazil and other nations they have used this as a way of reproducing white supremacy. The white normative case is still central. That is just the beginning of the answer. We will now by my brothers book. [laughter] that is what were going to do now. Buys book. [applause] thank you. Thank you. [applause] [applause] [applause] live with like to hear from you. Tweet as your feedback. Faugh well, thank you for that kind introduction treatises pleasure what beckett politics and prose. Erics jury happy to be back. Are want to begin my discussion of my book with assertions. The first is that globalization, by which time mean the progressive integration of National Economies is here to stay. That might seem to go without saying given the remarkable remarkable and remarkably in tents on going global integration that we have seen from most of the last 25 years, but if you look at the history of the genuinely Global Economy from its first emergence in the middle of the 19th century to the present, you will see that Global Economic integration is almost as much the exception is the rule. Between 1914 in 1945, the era of the two world wars, Global Economy bears agree collapsed. To drew exist the assertion is that although globalization will continue, its path will be a bumpy one. There will be pitfalls, pot holes, sharks, road blocks, the taurus. And the reason fed is that the Global Economy is inexplicably bound up with politics politics is the realm of conflict. Conflict will affect the Global Economy Going Forward. Now, the third assertion is that it is possible within limits to be sure to predict the future of the Global Economy theres a useful analogy to the science of seismology they cannot predict they do know where earthquakes will occur and why. Earth. Take place along cracks on the earths surface known as false. Similarly there are major fault lines in the Global Economy activity along which will shape the Global Economic future. There are, in fact, for such fall lines which i discussed in some length in the road to global prosperity. They are first the political framework and provides the necessary stability for global in economic activity. The second is the inevitable backlash in every country legacy to the three elements of globalization. The Cross Border Movement of kurds, money, and people or to put it in more familiar terms, trade to finance command immigration. The third fall line is the worlds freemarket financial systems. The fourth involves the prospects for Economic Growth in the emerging market economies, especially the four most important of them, the socalled bricks, brazil, russia, india, china. To put this in slightly different terms, the future of the Global Economy depends upon the answers to four major questions. First, will the world be peaceful and stable enough to permit cross border trade, finance commemoration to flourish . Second, how strong will be all but inevitable political backlash in every country against Global Economic activity . Third come how frequent and disruptive will be heat almost all but inevitable financial crises that the world will see in the world to five years ahead fourth, how effectively will brazil, russia, india, and time that deal with the principal political obstacle to maximizing the potential for Economic Growth. Let me say a little bit about each of these four. All markets weather local, regional, national, or global in scope the case secure political framework to provide stability. Without stability Global Economic transactions just dont happen. For the Global Economy the principal and most dangerous source of instability is war. There are a number of economically important regions where water is not necessarily likely, certainly not inevitable, but certainly possible. In east asia, for example, a rising china is embroiled in disputes with its neighbors about control of certain violence and the extent of chinese territorial waters. In south asia, india, and pakistan we continue to dispute the status of and his muslim majority province. The two countries have gone to war several times over the status, and now both are armed with nuclear weapons. In the middle east of the location of the largest readily excess of deposits of the worlds most valuable mineral, seeking regional domination and pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons. And only recently we have seen in central eurasia russia invaded and occupied, and an ax the canadian province of crimea. Now, each of these four regions has something in common. In each of them an American Military presence and Political Engagement are crucial for sustaining the stability of globalization requires. Therefore the future of the Global Economy does depend to a great extent on the future of American Foreign policy and especially American Military. The capacity of the willingness of the United Nations to provide the military forces upon which global stability parts russ. American military policy of American Military spending are under pressure. Theyre under pressure for fiscal reasons. Theyre under pressure because of the need to reduce federal spending, including military spending to deal with americas chronic and chronically large budget deficits. An American Military policy and American Military spending in American Military deployment are under pressure from the widespread public unhappiness in the United States with the consequences and the costs of the American Military operations in afghanistan. Defense spending is going to drop. It is already doing so. The United States is trying to pull back some of its military deployment. How far will these trends go and how far can they save we go . Well, these are questions that are going to be debated in the years ahead, most notably in this city, but has that to be perceived, it is important to remember that what is at stake is not simply the capacity of the United States to fight and win an economic war but the capacity of the United States to sustain military deployment and military policy that undergirds the stability that Global Economic activity requires. Passport trade, finance an immigration benefit as a whole from these crossborder flows, some people in every country are always disadvantage, and urge, they lose out. That is to say globalization always creates losers as well as winners. In the losers, especially in democracies actually organized themselves politically and try to limit or even cut off and they organized to try to limit the inflow of whatever project is injuring them. Now, in the years ahead, there are two particular trade relationships that have the potential to explode politically in ways that could do significant damage to the Global Economy. One of them is the trade relationship or treating china on the one hand and the united state and other dance industrial economies on the other. And second is the trade relationship between an ef on the one hand in the United States and the other advanced industrial economies on the other. Let me say a word about each. China is regularly accused of unfair trade crack this is the various kinds. They include currency manipulation, theft of intellectual property, unfair, unsatisfied three environmental policies. But the most explosive accusation labeled against china in trade with that country is that trade contributes substantially to two unfortunate , ongoing Economic Trends in the United States and other countries as well. One such trend is the fact nation of wages. The other is growing economic inequality. Economic studies generally show that while trying to trade this contributed to this trend, it is by far not the biggest contributor. The major contributor economists generally find is the answer to elegy. But china gets the lions share of the blame. And this unhappiness with china increases, it could reach the point that it would branch america and western trade policies out of their custom courses. It could start a trade with china and that would have a substantial and probably substantially adverse impact on the Global Economy. As for indiana, trade in that country largely involves services. India is an exporter of services and Treatment Services that become possible because of the digital revolution. Well, if you are doing a service job that can be done just as well as more cheaply in india come you are likely to lose her job. So trade in services of india and other lowwage countries does threaten american jobs. We in the United States are accustomed to seeing jobs go overseas. Thats been had in the last six decades. In the past these were almost exclusively to call your shots, factory jobs. In other jobs that are potentially in shape ready or white collar jobs, office jobs, jobs in the service that are not necessarily entirely ordinary office work. Potentially at risk are jobs that require considerable education and training to perform. Jobs done by doctors, lawyers, architects committed years, even ultimately, god for bid, by professors. Trade in services and the export of jobs to countries like india has the potential to trigger a substantial political backlash in the United States and other rich countries for two reasons. First, the jobs potentially at risk are much more numerous than in the past. There are many more whitecollar service jobs than bluecollar fact or he jobs. So more people are affected in decade, some of the people whose jobs may be at risk in here of course i exclude professors are people who are politically influential and are in a position to bring their influence to bear on American Economic and trade policy. So there is the potential if enough people feel vulnerable to the off shoring of service jobs for political backlash that could again frenchamerican in western trade policy out of the pattern is followed for the last 25 years with potential damage to the Global Economy as a whole. So far its true the outflow of service jobs from United States especially has been a trickle, not a flood and perhaps will remain that way. But the potential for largescale jeopardy of american whitecollar jobs does exist and so two therefore to say globalization harming political backlash. Now to the third the third fault in the Global Economy, the worlds financial systems. By the early seal of free market economies because freemarket economies are susceptible to financial boat roles. Financial bubbles have a tendency to first. Bbravo occurs of course when a series bid up the price of an asset until it climbs higher and higher and neighbors from investor psychology changes peddling the asset doesnt look like a sure thing coinvestors thresh to get at the outset asset, the price plummets and that can do serious damage to the surrounding economy reexperience what you might call the mother of all financial bubbles bursting in the fall of 2008. This was a bubble centered on the American Housing industry. Bursting bubble triggered biggest economic downturn since the great depression, the effects of which are someways filled with the spirit and the American Financial system still poses a potential threat because in the wake of the great crisis of 2008, it is more concentrated than ever. We now have fewer Financial Firms that are larger than was the case before 2008. If anyone of them should get in trouble, that could be significant damage. But the more immediate threat to the Global Economy from financial services, from financials since comes from your. He comes from the crisis of europes common current fee, the aero. That crisis has its origins in a bubble. When the era was formed, investors were happy to buy large quantities of relatively low Interest Rates. The bonds of the countries of Southern Europe to join the euro were regarded as safe bets, sure thing. It gradually down on investors that wasnt so safe in these countries were not all that well managed economically hall is conceivable. The burst of the bubble rushed out of the province of the Southern European countries, which sent the Interest Rates that these countries have to pay to finance the deficit skyhigh, putting enormous stress on their economies. The danger here is if one or more of the members of the euro should default on their bond obligations, this could be calamitous for the banks, especially the banks in Northern European countries, including germany to hold large numbers of these bombs and big collapses in Northern Europe could spread across the atlantic and do as much damage to the Global Economy is the near meltdown of the American Financial system did in 2008. You will, the European Central bank has announced it will buy the bonds of the Southern European countries without limit and not come the fears of the market. The flight away from these bombs ended. Interest rates went down. The pressure in the European Countries economies eased a bit. That europe is not out of the woods. The underlying problems still remain and that means europe has three paths out of this crisis. The first path is to abandon the euro all together, to break it up. This would have one useful benefit to the countries of Southern Europe. The idea was to resume there a National Current use, which they could then devalue to help them find and help them close their budget deficit. The collapse of the year out entirely would have entirely would have sent and received to europe and probably the rest of the world. No one knows just how great they would be, but they might be enormous in the europeans is certainly not been interested in finding out. Theyve made it clear they will do whatever they can to keep the euros to keep the heroes who get to keep it going to prevent its breakout. Their preferred course of action at a severe crisis, the second path is to establish and petitions of political governance in the euro area to help stabilize the occurring to me that belonged to it. One clear lesson, which many people understood before this far and that apparently the are you a to be violent, the currency requires the government. But there is a single government for the countries that belong to the euro. Recognize that the problems have committed them close to his ravishing in editions of economic government that will affect all of them and theyve begun this is, but its a very long process and no one really knows how fast it will perceive or how will proceed because the course has been the third one. This third course is muddling through and hope we are your foot to countries of Southern Europe are able to make the politically painful Economic Reforms that are necessary in order for them to avoid the kinds of trouble that led to the crisis in the first place. Well, these reforms have been implemented in greece, italy, other places. Kris of courses for i have, but italy came to the brink of being cramped a few months back. So they have decided, have committed you are making these changes, lpr will be at the beginning stages. We dont know how far or fast these political and Economic Reforms will go. What we do know is theyre very

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