One third of all of the oil travels to the street. Another that no one talks about is the straight that goes to asia. What is the South China Sea double thats about to pop, these are major issues that are going on dalia so what has russia done . It has expanded its relationship and production in the middle east and north africa. For example, israel. The leave it or not i spent a lot of time there and people are shocked when they see that it is natural gas potential to become the world lng exporter. Guess who is all over it, the gas pump. Europe depends on energy and putin has finalized the new Russian Energy which is in china and the rest of asia. This leads us towards the twilight of the dollar. What happens if the petrodollar falls . First of all the cost will be lower than it did appreciate and it will cost higher and Interest Rates will result into the debt will be more expensive to service. Remember todays is more than 100 of the gdp and the poor will decline much further but that is a best Case Scenario. It can get a lot worse. As the markets could become significant victims of the demise of the dollar there are over 500 trillion in the derivatives markets. That is a conservative estimate. What happens to the derivatives markets that are called weapons of mass destruction of the petrodollar collapses it will increase major volatility and instability of the market. We already see the niche and setting up the currency where trillions of dollars and then on u. S. Dollar denominations are peaking demand away from the u. S. Dollar in fact a lot of people again 70 of the currency are held by foreigners outside of the u. S. Theres actually more in russia then there is in than there is in america. Interestingly one third of the u. S. Bank checking deposits in the u. S. Which works out to be a little over a trillion dollars in u. S. Are owned by foreigners. If there is a currency collapse based upon the fault of the picture oh dollar you will expect they will dump dollars and cause further pressure on the u. S. Dollar. What has the government done to prevent this . In 2013 the government made up about one third of the total military expenditure is globally a little over six under 40 billion. Remember the facts in the 21st century the u. S. Are involved in every conflict. That usually doesnt work well for the country if you believe in the trends of the past so what is the best Case Scenario if it doesnt change x. High unemployment, economic growth, rapid Price Inflation. The biggest loser in this area will be the middle class. You go from the middle class to the working poor especially those that plan on living on fixed incomes. The u. S. Or the eu or japan default on debt held by the foreigners. This would be the most interesting day ever in the history of the Financial Markets and we will all be victims. So how can you protect yourself from this . It isnt something just Hedge Fund Managers can do, we can all do it. To protect the dollar by a little bit of the physical gold as an insurance in case the u. S. Dollar does crash coming at you hope that you never actually use it because if it does go to five or 10,000 per ounce of the world is going to be in a very bad place. Diversify your holdings internationally for the younger people in the audience dont just have one passport or one bank account you have two passports, try to have internationalized assets. And most importantly we can all profit from the war by investing in Companies Run by the management teams who understand how to bring the modern Technology Test producing uranium fields you can profit from this. Theyve been using the profits to fund social programs. Its gone from 3 million a day to just about 600,000. Look at exxon, the largest is how much you make for the production of the barrel of oil isnt in the gulf of mexico or the middle east. Its actually in germany. So the these fields have never seen the technology. So it is going to take many years to play out and protect yourself is your responsibility. Thank you very much. [applause] bringing and controlling the Global Warming on the effects on the hydrocarbon fuel markets both gas and oil and lets change this overall picture . Lets take germany for example that is trying to be the world leader in green energy for the last five years yearoveryear the costs have increased 25 to the point that it isnt economic without government subsidies and as a result, the manufacturing is leaving germany and theyve increased their dependence by 52 over the last decade. So you look at the numbers we are about 100 years away from it. Its a great political lip service. They have grand ideas and talk about all these fabulous ideas. But we are years away from the enemy of solar being just might. I find that largest plant built in the last 25 years at this very difficult to make it economic. So hydrocarbons are here to stay. They consume about 70 and they are definitely going to make a big push for Nuclear Energy which is the cleanest form of energy. Baseload energy and the problem is that it isnt baseload. Solar, wind, they are not dependable ike cole, natural gas and uranium. Yes, sir in the back. Thank you for your insight and commentary. I have to ask about your opinion of the simultaneous decline of the russian stock market and the price of oil seeing you to back down it back down to the mid mid70s the praises of the little spinning out. Part of the cycle is between the great inflation you will have deflation. And the key is that saudi arabia, russia to keep all of the social programs happy happy the balance between 90 to 105 at the russian oil can be economic at 40. Its be valued more than the price of oil. That is an advantage to the Oil Producers because they have a depreciated currencies of it as an advantage. The side effect has actually pushed them closer to china. This is just the beginning of what weve seen. They dont care about obama or america or germany on the sanctions. They care about securing the Business Plan moving forward in the supply of energy. While the sector be able to still grow and fight the decline . Problem is after the first year of production you have anywhere between 50 to 75 . What the media says we are almost Energy Independent and the report never said by 2028 america would become Energy Independent so if they have been as 50dollar oil of america continue its growth and production . No. Youre talking about combining the barrels of oil at the equivalent of natural gas. There is an old joke about the u. S. Dollar tallest in a room of midgets and the problem is unless the u. S. Foreign policy changes and accepts china and russia eat whole telling them what to do and implementing sanctions you will see the rest of the world move away now. Where would you rather go. Until it establishes itself we are talking a few years out and there will be alternatives where the deck. You see 8 cents on the dollar of gross. So the financial heroine isnt working and working and weve seen most recently in japan even though they basically injected a trillion into the economy based on now say they are in a recession. So in the near term, yes its the strongest currency but things change and unless america changes its approach is going to change sooner rather than later. Do you provide some kind of recommendation. The u. S. Funded the site in the regime and people forget they took out a page in the New York Times saying this is foolish why are you funding the people that you are at war with and that today the usa and canada and its allies are bombing isis which were originally funded provided by the u. S. In iraq today. Unfortunately i say this is getting stronger and they joined forces with al qaeda. Theyve also been funding them, so what happens here . Until europe and america and the allies respect and recognize they have their interest, china has their interest and we have to work as equals to a moderate solution isnt russia its been expanding its military if you look back in the past 20 years, nato has actually grown and has been expanding its own agenda is to duplicate what happened in kosovo and to get a perspective of what is going on even the u. S. Sanctions today. Do you feel like there is a leader that is present and is taking the right approach . What is interesting as i am apolitical and i look at it from the investment perspective in the Current Situation in that the current reality i remember in the election of 2012 mitt romney said our biggest enemy is americas biggest enemy is russia and obama laughed at him and said that the cold war is over. So they stood up to the red lion and the rest noticed when the u. S. Has crumbled no one expected expected them to putin to rise from the ashes and do what hes done. Lets all hope that there is someone there. I just dont have the answer for that. Thank you for this presentation. I was reading in the Financial Times that russia has a budget of two and that crude oil has to be on the payroll. It was a very graphic image at the breakeven point for the other countries and there are two American Companies giving approval to congress to be about to export. The third thing is if china and russia are so confident that there would be a demise thats why in the 50 50 or 60 years you were so confident in the extrapolating so much into the future on the grand plans into securing their resources elsewhere for the different commodities why where they end up holding their own and where the foreign reserves you mentioned the other members thats very different from making an economic return on your oil so russia is a bit different than if i spend time and really there is no middle class because it is essentially glorified his aides and then you have the family thats very different from say russia were some of the other countries like mexico where where the state will companies you can actually, its a publicly traded company that the taxes were used to fund the social programs of the government. If you cannot balance your budget because the commodity that you used to feed your government is going down the price in and the general market because the commodity you were referring to something called the dutch disease which is based off of the strong currency producing the commodity crash you are stuck because you have to Price Inflation domestically. But its very different in russia the currency was overvalued and its a depreciated a greater rate so they are better off with the opposite of the dutch disease. Your government depends on one commodity. The same thing is going all over what started at the budget. Russia has over four and 50 million of reserve currency. They have over triple but the gold reserves under putins administration. You know where the largest gold producer in the world is . Its not america, if not nevada is china. Gold is money. Did you have a question to ask stomach with the decline of the influence on the Global Energy market do you see Something Like the Manhattan Project developing to replace certain forms of energy . Cynically talk about that in the book because to do with the Manhattan Project was today in todays dollars it would be over a trillion dollar investment in the government and it they really revolutionized it became Nuclear Energy. Obama tried that in the green revolution, the guaranteed construction loan. It was a disaster in the tens of billions of dollars so no i dont see that being the solution unfortunately. Just a couple of things to point out on the clarification looking at israel for a moment i was on the impression. If you look at the cost to build the infrastructure during obamas first term he never visited israel. They were there five or six times, so you see that when the collapse happened over three and a thousand jewish engineers went to israel and really the influence their base to quit the government and they are smart, educated and successful. So they definitely have their eye on israel. But when i went to iraq, we know that the military was there in 2000 and down saddam hussein. And he wanted to train the oil for the year rose him about u. S. Dollars. He went down after the new regime came in and there was no mention of trading away all on anything but u. S. Dollars but more importantly whos doing all the Service Contract is . If the chinese and russians, not the the companies drilling the projects. Good to africa and east africa and the largest Oil Discovery in the plan of the last decade is africa oil. This was all in in that company and it proved us now over a billion barrels of oil. Whos doing all the work. The north American Companies didnt win the contract because exxon for example in iraq and the kurdish oil fields open they said if you go to kurdistan you will lose your contracts in iraq they are possibly being the solution on the nuclear front. Is nice to have a solution to all of the chaos. After the first natural gas deal with russia and china before putin went back peeking over to iran and started the negotiations of the power pack into this past weekend said that iran has the debate could agree to operate on the eighth nuclear racketeers reactors. Just a point of clarification i would like to clarify one thing about the oil sector in iraq. As with any other Company Resources belong to the country, not to the region that happens to be part of the surface. Some of those oil fields are in the kurdish region of iraq belong to the country, not to the kurds. The law is quite clear about this. Those Companies Like exxon mobil who had advisers who encourage them to make a deal with the kurds because it is quick money and youll get it out through turkey they are very ill advised. How could the government rely on the oil revenues for everything clicks its a fantastic real field producing 25 or 30 billion but that three pipelines in northern kurdistan power they going to get the oil out. The plaintiff all of this is to say that they do not have diversified economies that rely on mexico. They are changing the rules because it even hasnt been successful. Just a counterpoint to your analyst is looking at the oil sector is doing into the country and its budget one has to look at the diversity of the economy to see whether there is resiliency that can move from one to another. Thats what we talked about in the book where i mentioned the foundation for the future plan is the resource sector, but you cant depend on it and thats kind of what he we explained in the book. [applause] stick we have time for books and signing, etc. We are wrapping up the questions now. Thank you all very much for coming and we look forward to see you next time. What i loved about the story is that it is a human the human drama. These dynamic characters are all rebels. They are all aware that they are throwing bombs and doing something incredibly risky and thats without any of them at all. Fullstop hard. The first we mentioned she has been saying since the 1920s but there ought to be a mirror called tablet. That is perturbed americo tablets that would allow them to turn on and off the reproductive systems and shes very specific about what this should entail. She is very specific about this. They tell her that its stuff of science fiction. The science isnt there and its illegal anyway. What company is going to manufacture such a thing and supports such research. So she keeps asking for years and years and decades every scientist she needs is interested in this area. What can we do. Finally she meets a guy named gregory was a biologist and one of the experts and reproduction. Hes been fired from harvard because he is radical and hes jewish, the time of great antisemitism and experimenting with in vitro fertilization and declaring that someday science will control the reproductive process and women would have far more flexibility when they got pregnant and men may not even be necessary at all and that scared people tremendously. He couldnt find work anywhere is anywhere as he is is that hes working out of a garage that he built and hes going from door to door asking people for donations and they say i can do a Birth Control pill and she is just flabbergasted that explains how it would work. And the woman already has a contraceptive in her body and when shes pregnant she cant get pregnant again because it tells the body not to produce more. That is the simplest way that he explains it to her. Great, what will it take . A couple thousand dollars. Well, then she goes out and find out why. Shes she is the third in my quartet and she used to fund the whole project. Shes a wealthy arab whose husband left her hundreds of millions of dollars and she said whatever it takes. She will build laboratories, the animals they need further testing. She will write blank checks. He needs a doctor that knows how to treat women because he is a lab guy said he finds a respected fertility expert in a country and get him to come along and agree to work with him so you have somebody that brings respectability to this and is willing to challenge the church and say no it shouldnt just be for reproduction. And these people really on their own with of course some others involved but really this group set out to do something everybody tells them if possible. You can watch this on the booktv. Org. The author of the resilience dividend being strong in the world where things go wrong discusses her book at the 31st annual Miami Book Fair. It is next on booktv. Good afternoon, miami. I am the dean of the Honors College here at Miamidade College and it is an absoluteure pleasure to be with you for the 2014 Miami Book Fair international. The book fair is grateful for the support of theboo Foundation American airlines and many other generous sponsors. Ik weve also like to acknowledge the friendsnds of the book fare