Russias invasion of ukraine. The counteroffensive going slowly by believing ukraine will be able to make advances. Director burns was interviewed. Phil burns. Hi. Good to see you. Welcome back to aspen. Very nice to be with you. Thank you for inviting me again. Are you ready . Russia. I am shocked that you would ask that. What just happened . When you are watching event saturday june 24, what was your understanding of what was unfolding . Id seen over the last three decades since the end of the cold war, and a lot of fascinating episodes in russia but none more fascinating than the mutiny which was the most direct assault on the russian state and Vladimir Putins 23 years in power. I think in many ways it exposed some of the significant weaknesses in the system that putin has built it weaknesses that had already been laid bare by the disastrous and did deeply destructive war that putin launched in ukraine. Now almost exactly a month ago today after they launch that mutiny was the way in which he felt compelled to do a deal with his former caterer. And what was equally remarkable, if you look back at the 36 hours that preceded, that deal, it began one month ago today in the morning of russian time with a 30 minute video that was put on telegram which is the channel that probably more than one third of the russian population is active on. That video was the most scathing indictment of the rationale for war, the conduct of the war, the corruption at the core of the regime that i have heard from a russian or nonrussian. It was bitterly critical of the conduct of the war by the Russian Military leadership, by the defense minister and the general, chief of military staff it took head on the rationale for war. Built on lies that there was no imminent threat to the russian homeland oreo the russian people from ukraine or from nato and it was scathing in its description of the corruption which animates the russian elite today which is , you know, richly ironic the fact that he himself had profited as much as anyone from that corruption. It wasly quite remarkable to see and then of course what was equally remarkable was what transpired in those 36 hours after the video. And we are going there. You just call the day mutiny. Was it an attempted coup . Do we know what he was trying to do . You know, i mean, President Biden put it succinctly when he said we knew things ahead of time. I will not go into any more detail than that. I think he was making some of this up as he went along. Clearly, his main targets a lot of this had been hiding in plain sight. He had been scathing in his public criticisms of both of them. It did not come as any real surprise when he decided to take action. How wounded is putin . Sorrynk. How wounded is putin . The comment i made about exposing the weaknesses, what i meant by that is putin in many ways i think has constructed his image which is been carefully cultivated and its grip on power around the notion in the image that he is the arbiter of order in the russian system. What that has met with the public p as a kind of social public in which its messages you stay out of politics, thats my business. What i will offer in return are rising standards of living and by and large i will not get into your personal lives. With the russian elite, you follow my lead and politics, what i will ensure in return is protection from external threats , protection from one another and also that everyone gets to feed at the trough. Everyone gets to shares and what is a deeply corrupt system. And i think what we have seen, especially in those 36 hours as this mutiny was unfolding and you had the spectacle of, you know the mercenaries, advancing unopposed which is a city of 1 Million People in southern russiata, also the military headquarters of the russian command in ukraine, cease control of that, you know, significant city and the following day get two thirds of the way up the road to moscow as well. You know, what you think of those two social contracts, what was going through the minds of a lot of russians and what we saw was a Russian Security services, Russian Military, russian decisionmakers that whereor a drifter appeared to be a drip for those 36 hours. For a lot of russians watching this, putin as the arbiter of orbiter order, why is it taking so long for him to get dressed. For the elite, i think, what it resurrected was some deeper questions which, again, you know , youve seen it circulate since the war in ukraine began. Since putins war in ukraine began. Asking questions about the judgment, relative detachment from events and from his indecisiveness. Here in aspen yesterday the British Foreign secretary cleverly said that we are seeing very deep cracks. I think you are seeing signs of weaknesses in the system as i put it. I think, you know, those weaknesses haveiz been exposed, but i think even more deeply than that exposed by putin smith judgment since he launched this invasion as well. I think that there is a relationship between the battleground and ukraine and what is going on inside russia in the sense that if and when the ukrainians make further advances on the battlefield, i think what that will do is cause more more russians in the elite and outside of the elite to Pay Attention to the critique of the war as well. That is where putin is trying to buy time. As he considers what to do. You know the image that he is overreacting to things. He is trying to settle things. But he will try to do a separate from what is a value to putin. Your. Know, the brunt of the fighting in the battle over most of the last year suffered the brunt of the casualties there. 80 of the forces in the battle were recent residents of russian colonies. Africa, lithia and syria. I think what he will try to do a separate and undercut him but preserve ofim what is of value o him as well. President bidennt recently sd if i were he i would be careful what i ate. He also said we are not even sure where he is. Do know of this video that seemed to showman belarus . Is that real . He has moved around a bit. Im not sure if he has any plans to retire, but he has spent time in russiaa as well. I think, you know, what we are seeing is a very complicated dance. I think putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. Trying to settle the situation to the extent that he can. In my experience, the ultimate apostle of payback. I woulds be surprised if he escapes further retribution for this. In that sense, the president is right. I would not fire my food taster. What about the general, how much freedom of movement does he currently enjoy . I dont think a lot right now [laughter] i dont think he enjoys a lot of freedom right now. [laughter] the cia has taken this o opportunity to make your first video post telegram to let brave russians know how to contact us safely onve the dark web. Two and a half million views of that telegram video in the first week it was on. The truth is, there is a lot of disinfection in russia. We are not wasting the opportunity as an Intelligent Service to try to take advantage of it. Also trying to recruit is there friendly rivalry to get in . Ti i mean, it is aimed at the same objective right now, to. As part of the objective, you know t, whether that leads to useful intelligence streams for you, to make putin look over his shoulder andtr who we can trust. I think he is already a little uneasy. As he looks. Over his shoulder i think that that is true in the debate that goes on right now. And, so, it would be crazy for us not to take advantage of a once in a Generation Opportunity as a human Intelligence Service to take advantage of that. You are just in ukraine. How is the big counteroffensive going . What is your assessment . I pretty regularly travel to ukraine over t the course of the last 18 months. That is a reflection of the significance at the president , everyone in the u. S. Government attaches to our support for what is been an incredibly courageous and tenacious ukrainian effort to fight back against putin and against russia. In ukraine is not a real country. Real countries fight back. That is just what president zelinski and my intelligence counterparts in the Ukrainian Military have done. I dontco think it should come s a surprise to anyone that the counteroffensive is hard. Offense is a lot harder than defense. The russians have had months to prepare. Also quite extensive minefields as well. It will take time and it will not be easy to make progress. I am, however, an optimist. Not only based on those trips to ukraine, but on the intelligence that we are able to acquire and develop, you know, they will be able to make advances. I think the thing sometimes it is easy to forget is behind those considerable fixed offenses that the russians have built in southern ukraine, there still lies some pretty structural weaknesses. Poor morale, uneven generalship to put it mildly on the russian side and the disarray we were just talking about on the political and for senior leadership. I think that it will be a tough spot, but we will do everything we can as an Intelligence Agency to provide the kind of intelligence support and sharing that will help the ukrainians make progress. One think that feels important to ask about because we seem to be talking about it lots, less in the news, thet. Possibility of a Nuclear Weapon being introduced inha the war ze i know that late last year you met with your russian counterpart and you have described that your orders were from President Biden to make very clear what the consequences would be if russia were to go down that path. It suggests that President Biden thought the possibility was real enough that he dispatched his cia team to make sure it did not happen. Are you more or less worried about that . The nuclear n stable rattling that they have engaged in his reckless and deeply irresponsible. Not something that we can take lightly. We do not see today any concrete preparations for the potential use of Nuclear Weapons. We have made absolutely clear in the conversation one of my russian counterparts and through other channels the depth of our concern. I think that it has been important that the president in china has spoken out about this as well because his is a voice that is difficult for the kremlin to ignore right now. It is something that we obviously monitor very, very carefully. We do not see any immediate signs of preparations for nuclear use. How much more instability has it just introduced to have russia pull out of the grain deal and increasingly expanding its attacks on the black sea. It is deeply troubling. First for ukrainians, what putin is trying to do is wreck the ukrainian economy and wreak real havoc on ukrainian civilians. It also does deep damage to some of the most vulnerable societies on earth. They depend on those grain shipments. What putin has engaged in the last several days is a very systematic after. It is not just pulling out of the grain deal, its been nights in a role of the tax against grain storagest facilities. And, you know, as the white house made clear earlier today, we see some very concerning signs of the russians considering the kind of full swag operation that we highlighted in the runup to the war as well. In other words, looking at ways in which they may make attacks against shipping in the black sea and trying to blame it on the ukrainians. Why is iran the Defense Partnership betweenl russia and iran is a useful two way street. What is iran getting . We have seen signs of the russians technicians working on the Space Launch Vehicle Program , other aspects of their missile programs. We have seen discussion that leads to the possibility of russians providing advanced aircraft to iran. It expands the threat from the innocent civilians and ive seen this on my own visits. When other armed drones have been used against indiscriminately against ukrainian civilians. The provision obviously creates threats to our friends in the region as well. It is a twoway street. In many ways that is what is most troubling about the Defense Partnership. Speaking of cracks, speaking of fissures, your counterpart at mi six, Richard Moore just gave an interview this week in which he suggested that drones are causing internal turmoil in iran his quote was irans decision to supply russia with suicide drones has provoked internal quarrels of the highest level of the regime in tehran. Are you seeing that . I will not add to what richard said in terms of our commentary on intelligence we collect about what is going on inside the iranian leadership. We have however seen signs and some of this has been public did whether the iranian leadership has hesitated about supplying Ballistic Missiles to russians which also was on their wish list as well. Partly because they are concerned not just about our reaction but European Reaction as well. Countrys military to y to invade taiwan by 2027. Whats your assessment of whether he will . Dir. Burns i think its been discussed publicly a lot, the instruction to be ready by 2027 means just that. It means to be ready. It does not mean conflict is inevitable. Ms. Kelly has he made up his mind . Dir. Burns i am not sure that he has. What it means that president xi and the Peoples LiberationArmy Leadership have doubts about whether they could pull off a successful fullscale invasion of taiwan at acceptable cost to them. Cost to them and i think no leader has paid more attention as he thinks about taiwan and i think that is probably reinforced some of those doubts not only in an objectively smaller success fighting back with of the great deal of motivation againstot a bigger military but also some of the Weapon System and the speed with whichh President Biden would be able to put together a coalition in support of ukraine the solidarity being willing to accept to some Economic Cost to inflict damage on russia. All of that gives pause to the chinese leadership do you have a sense of what would trigger it . Theres all sorts of things given the state of relations that could trigger that kind of movement but today i think our effort as a government, this is a policy issue not in intelligencece one to help taiwn defend itself but also to make clear at the same time we are not interested in changing the status quo and we oppose any unilateral efforts to change that. We dont support taiwan independence, but we have made very clear in the policy channels we would sharply oppose anyny use of force by the peopls republic to try to alter that status quo. If china were to make the decision, would you have the same heads up from intelligence sources thatt you did when Vladimir Putin made up his mind to invaded ukraine . Thats something we worked very hard at and im proud of the record and the committee providing credible accurate warning on putins plans to invaded ukraine. Thats why the president to send me to moscow in november of 21 months before the war to lay out an unusual step of whatut we knw about his plans and what the consequences would be so we work hard asas an agency to put ourselves in a strong position as we can to advise the president and policymakers if that day ever comes of what we see being planned. De about a decade ago the cia rolled up a lot, a dozen or more sources were arrested were worse, executed. Have you rebuild . We are working very hard over recent years to end sure that we have a strong and lujans capability to complement but we can acquire through other methods. On the cyber front, the recent chinese hack of u. S. Government accounts, microsoft says it wentun undetected. Was this chinese intelligence . I would say several things. First the u. S. Government made clear first detected and informed microsoft that was efficient in response to microsoft is attributing this to china and we dont have any reason to doubt that. About officially sanctioned was this chinese intelligence . I cant go beyond what i just said. Was it within the realm we know the chinese are going to try to spy on the u. S. Or did youu see it as an escalation . Russia, iran, north korea, u. S. Critical infrastructure going on for some years, so in that sense its not new but something we take very seriously as a foreign Intelligence Agency to collect all the intelligence we can and then support the department of Homeland Security and fbi and others who are properly focused on protecting the United States domestic issues. Why does the u. S. Government account to keep getting hacked . Why cant we protect them better . All i can do is speak for the cia and we work very hard to protect accounts there and we work very hard with other agencies both domestic and other intelligence agencies to ensure we are not only sharply focused on those but we arear sharing every bit of intelligence we can acquire to help us better protect u. S. S government, unclassified accounts because it is what we are talking about in the, case of the most recent but also trying to do all we can to strengthen our cyber security. How are you feeling about Election Security in 2024 . Something we take very seriously. As an Intelligence Service i dont doubt the capacity or the determination of some of the rivals and adversaries to try to create problems whether its through disinformation or other means. I think the cooperation on those issues is a lot stronger than it was in 2016 or 2020. We are trying to anticipate a lot of those concerns right now so we dont get to the point. Weve organized a new Mission Center that is one of the Building Blocks a of a dozen oro of them thats focused on, a range of issues both transnational into technological. I know you dont do politics. I know the cia mission is foreign focused and threats. What is the role of the greatest threat if its domestic po