Transcripts For CSPAN2 CIA 20240704 : vimarsana.com

Russias invasion of ukraine. The counteroffensive going slowly by believing ukraine will be able to make advances. Director burns was interviewed. Phil burns. Hi. Good to see you. Welcome back to aspen. Very nice to be with you. Thank you for inviting me again. Are you ready . Russia. I am shocked that you would ask that. What just happened . When you are watching event saturday june 24, what was your understanding of what was unfolding . Id seen over the last three decades since the end of the cold war, and a lot of fascinating episodes in russia but none more fascinating than the mutiny which was the most direct assault on the russian state and Vladimir Putins 23 years in power. I think in many ways it exposed some of the significant weaknesses in the system that putin has built it weaknesses that had already been laid bare by the disastrous and did deeply destructive war that putin launched in ukraine. Now almost exactly a month ago today after they launch that mutiny was the way in which he felt compelled to do a deal with his former caterer. And what was equally remarkable, if you look back at the 36 hours that preceded, that deal, it began one month ago today in the morning of russian time with a 30 minute video that was put on telegram which is the channel that probably more than one third of the russian population is active on. That video was the most scathing indictment of the rationale for war, the conduct of the war, the corruption at the core of the regime that i have heard from a russian or nonrussian. It was bitterly critical of the conduct of the war by the Russian Military leadership, by the defense minister and the general, chief of military staff it took head on the rationale for war. Built on lies that there was no imminent threat to the russian homeland oreo the russian people from ukraine or from nato and it was scathing in its description of the corruption which animates the russian elite today which is , you know, richly ironic the fact that he himself had profited as much as anyone from that corruption. It wasly quite remarkable to see and then of course what was equally remarkable was what transpired in those 36 hours after the video. And we are going there. You just call the day mutiny. Was it an attempted coup . Do we know what he was trying to do . You know, i mean, President Biden put it succinctly when he said we knew things ahead of time. I will not go into any more detail than that. I think he was making some of this up as he went along. Clearly, his main targets a lot of this had been hiding in plain sight. He had been scathing in his public criticisms of both of them. It did not come as any real surprise when he decided to take action. How wounded is putin . Sorrynk. How wounded is putin . The comment i made about exposing the weaknesses, what i meant by that is putin in many ways i think has constructed his image which is been carefully cultivated and its grip on power around the notion in the image that he is the arbiter of order in the russian system. What that has met with the public p as a kind of social public in which its messages you stay out of politics, thats my business. What i will offer in return are rising standards of living and by and large i will not get into your personal lives. With the russian elite, you follow my lead and politics, what i will ensure in return is protection from external threats , protection from one another and also that everyone gets to feed at the trough. Everyone gets to shares and what is a deeply corrupt system. And i think what we have seen, especially in those 36 hours as this mutiny was unfolding and you had the spectacle of, you know the mercenaries, advancing unopposed which is a city of 1 Million People in southern russiata, also the military headquarters of the russian command in ukraine, cease control of that, you know, significant city and the following day get two thirds of the way up the road to moscow as well. You know, what you think of those two social contracts, what was going through the minds of a lot of russians and what we saw was a Russian Security services, Russian Military, russian decisionmakers that whereor a drifter appeared to be a drip for those 36 hours. For a lot of russians watching this, putin as the arbiter of orbiter order, why is it taking so long for him to get dressed. For the elite, i think, what it resurrected was some deeper questions which, again, you know , youve seen it circulate since the war in ukraine began. Since putins war in ukraine began. Asking questions about the judgment, relative detachment from events and from his indecisiveness. Here in aspen yesterday the British Foreign secretary cleverly said that we are seeing very deep cracks. I think you are seeing signs of weaknesses in the system as i put it. I think, you know, those weaknesses haveiz been exposed, but i think even more deeply than that exposed by putin smith judgment since he launched this invasion as well. I think that there is a relationship between the battleground and ukraine and what is going on inside russia in the sense that if and when the ukrainians make further advances on the battlefield, i think what that will do is cause more more russians in the elite and outside of the elite to Pay Attention to the critique of the war as well. That is where putin is trying to buy time. As he considers what to do. You know the image that he is overreacting to things. He is trying to settle things. But he will try to do a separate from what is a value to putin. Your. Know, the brunt of the fighting in the battle over most of the last year suffered the brunt of the casualties there. 80 of the forces in the battle were recent residents of russian colonies. Africa, lithia and syria. I think what he will try to do a separate and undercut him but preserve ofim what is of value o him as well. President bidennt recently sd if i were he i would be careful what i ate. He also said we are not even sure where he is. Do know of this video that seemed to showman belarus . Is that real . He has moved around a bit. Im not sure if he has any plans to retire, but he has spent time in russiaa as well. I think, you know, what we are seeing is a very complicated dance. I think putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. Trying to settle the situation to the extent that he can. In my experience, the ultimate apostle of payback. I woulds be surprised if he escapes further retribution for this. In that sense, the president is right. I would not fire my food taster. What about the general, how much freedom of movement does he currently enjoy . I dont think a lot right now [laughter] i dont think he enjoys a lot of freedom right now. [laughter] the cia has taken this o opportunity to make your first video post telegram to let brave russians know how to contact us safely onve the dark web. Two and a half million views of that telegram video in the first week it was on. The truth is, there is a lot of disinfection in russia. We are not wasting the opportunity as an Intelligent Service to try to take advantage of it. Also trying to recruit is there friendly rivalry to get in . Ti i mean, it is aimed at the same objective right now, to. As part of the objective, you know t, whether that leads to useful intelligence streams for you, to make putin look over his shoulder andtr who we can trust. I think he is already a little uneasy. As he looks. Over his shoulder i think that that is true in the debate that goes on right now. And, so, it would be crazy for us not to take advantage of a once in a Generation Opportunity as a human Intelligence Service to take advantage of that. You are just in ukraine. How is the big counteroffensive going . What is your assessment . I pretty regularly travel to ukraine over t the course of the last 18 months. That is a reflection of the significance at the president , everyone in the u. S. Government attaches to our support for what is been an incredibly courageous and tenacious ukrainian effort to fight back against putin and against russia. In ukraine is not a real country. Real countries fight back. That is just what president zelinski and my intelligence counterparts in the Ukrainian Military have done. I dontco think it should come s a surprise to anyone that the counteroffensive is hard. Offense is a lot harder than defense. The russians have had months to prepare. Also quite extensive minefields as well. It will take time and it will not be easy to make progress. I am, however, an optimist. Not only based on those trips to ukraine, but on the intelligence that we are able to acquire and develop, you know, they will be able to make advances. I think the thing sometimes it is easy to forget is behind those considerable fixed offenses that the russians have built in southern ukraine, there still lies some pretty structural weaknesses. Poor morale, uneven generalship to put it mildly on the russian side and the disarray we were just talking about on the political and for senior leadership. I think that it will be a tough spot, but we will do everything we can as an Intelligence Agency to provide the kind of intelligence support and sharing that will help the ukrainians make progress. One think that feels important to ask about because we seem to be talking about it lots, less in the news, thet. Possibility of a Nuclear Weapon being introduced inha the war ze i know that late last year you met with your russian counterpart and you have described that your orders were from President Biden to make very clear what the consequences would be if russia were to go down that path. It suggests that President Biden thought the possibility was real enough that he dispatched his cia team to make sure it did not happen. Are you more or less worried about that . The nuclear n stable rattling that they have engaged in his reckless and deeply irresponsible. Not something that we can take lightly. We do not see today any concrete preparations for the potential use of Nuclear Weapons. We have made absolutely clear in the conversation one of my russian counterparts and through other channels the depth of our concern. I think that it has been important that the president in china has spoken out about this as well because his is a voice that is difficult for the kremlin to ignore right now. It is something that we obviously monitor very, very carefully. We do not see any immediate signs of preparations for nuclear use. How much more instability has it just introduced to have russia pull out of the grain deal and increasingly expanding its attacks on the black sea. It is deeply troubling. First for ukrainians, what putin is trying to do is wreck the ukrainian economy and wreak real havoc on ukrainian civilians. It also does deep damage to some of the most vulnerable societies on earth. They depend on those grain shipments. What putin has engaged in the last several days is a very systematic after. It is not just pulling out of the grain deal, its been nights in a role of the tax against grain storagest facilities. And, you know, as the white house made clear earlier today, we see some very concerning signs of the russians considering the kind of full swag operation that we highlighted in the runup to the war as well. In other words, looking at ways in which they may make attacks against shipping in the black sea and trying to blame it on the ukrainians. Why is iran the Defense Partnership betweenl russia and iran is a useful two way street. What is iran getting . We have seen signs of the russians technicians working on the Space Launch Vehicle Program , other aspects of their missile programs. We have seen discussion that leads to the possibility of russians providing advanced aircraft to iran. It expands the threat from the innocent civilians and ive seen this on my own visits. When other armed drones have been used against indiscriminately against ukrainian civilians. The provision obviously creates threats to our friends in the region as well. It is a twoway street. In many ways that is what is most troubling about the Defense Partnership. Speaking of cracks, speaking of fissures, your counterpart at mi six, Richard Moore just gave an interview this week in which he suggested that drones are causing internal turmoil in iran his quote was irans decision to supply russia with suicide drones has provoked internal quarrels of the highest level of the regime in tehran. Are you seeing that . I will not add to what richard said in terms of our commentary on intelligence we collect about what is going on inside the iranian leadership. We have however seen signs and some of this has been public did whether the iranian leadership has hesitated about supplying Ballistic Missiles to russians which also was on their wish list as well. Partly because they are concerned not just about our reaction but European Reaction as well. Countrys military to y to invade taiwan by 2027. Whats your assessment of whether he will . Dir. Burns i think its been discussed publicly a lot, the instruction to be ready by 2027 means just that. It means to be ready. It does not mean conflict is inevitable. Ms. Kelly has he made up his mind . Dir. Burns i am not sure that he has. What it means that president xi and the Peoples Liberation Army Leadership have doubts about whether they could pull off a successful fullscale invasion of taiwan at acceptable cost to them. Cost to them and i think no leader has paid more attention as he thinks about taiwan and i think that is probably reinforced some of those doubts not only in an objectively smaller success fighting back with of the great deal of motivation againstot a bigger military but also some of the Weapon System and the speed with whichh President Biden would be able to put together a coalition in support of ukraine the solidarity being willing to accept to some Economic Cost to inflict damage on russia. All of that gives pause to the chinese leadership do you have a sense of what would trigger it . Theres all sorts of things given the state of relations that could trigger that kind of movement but today i think our effort as a government, this is a policy issue not in intelligencece one to help taiwn defend itself but also to make clear at the same time we are not interested in changing the status quo and we oppose any unilateral efforts to change that. We dont support taiwan independence, but we have made very clear in the policy channels we would sharply oppose anyny use of force by the peopls republic to try to alter that status quo. If china were to make the decision, would you have the same heads up from intelligence sources thatt you did when Vladimir Putin made up his mind to invaded ukraine . Thats something we worked very hard at and im proud of the record and the committee providing credible accurate warning on putins plans to invaded ukraine. Thats why the president to send me to moscow in november of 21 months before the war to lay out an unusual step of whatut we knw about his plans and what the consequences would be so we work hard asas an agency to put ourselves in a strong position as we can to advise the president and policymakers if that day ever comes of what we see being planned. De about a decade ago the cia rolled up a lot, a dozen or more sources were arrested were worse, executed. Have you rebuild . We are working very hard over recent years to end sure that we have a strong and lujans capability to complement but we can acquire through other methods. On the cyber front, the recent chinese hack of u. S. Government accounts, microsoft says it wentun undetected. Was this chinese intelligence . I would say several things. First the u. S. Government made clear first detected and informed microsoft that was efficient in response to microsoft is attributing this to china and we dont have any reason to doubt that. About officially sanctioned was this chinese intelligence . I cant go beyond what i just said. Was it within the realm we know the chinese are going to try to spy on the u. S. Or did youu see it as an escalation . Russia, iran, north korea, u. S. Critical infrastructure going on for some years, so in that sense its not new but something we take very seriously as a foreign Intelligence Agency to collect all the intelligence we can and then support the department of Homeland Security and fbi and others who are properly focused on protecting the United States domestic issues. Why does the u. S. Government account to keep getting hacked . Why cant we protect them better . All i can do is speak for the cia and we work very hard to protect accounts there and we work very hard with other agencies both domestic and other intelligence agencies to ensure we are not only sharply focused on those but we arear sharing every bit of intelligence we can acquire to help us better protect u. S. S government, unclassified accounts because it is what we are talking about in the, case of the most recent but also trying to do all we can to strengthen our cyber security. How are you feeling about Election Security in 2024 . Something we take very seriously. As an Intelligence Service i dont doubt the capacity or the determination of some of the rivals and adversaries to try to create problems whether its through disinformation or other means. I think the cooperation on those issues is a lot stronger than it was in 2016 or 2020. We are trying to anticipate a lot of those concerns right now so we dont get to the point. Weve organized a new Mission Center that is one of the Building Blocks a of a dozen oro of them thats focused on, a range of issues both transnational into technological. I know you dont do politics. I know the cia mission is foreign focused and threats. What is the role of the greatest threat if its domestic politics . We are a foreign Intelligence Agency not domestic but what weve tried to do is organize ourselves in a way where we can contribute because youre right it was expressed well but given the challenges we face the lines in terms of responsibilities are not blurred. We are a foreign Intelligence Service but that means we have to work even harder and effectively to ensure what intelligence we collect gets shared with our domestic Law Enforcement partners and we are doing better at that van we have have inn years past. Do you personally agree with that premise and the now president emeritus expressed the greatest threat to the national security. The only thing i can say on that is i travel a lot and i get the question whether its political leaders or intelligence partners they wonder sometimes what appears to them to be the domestic dysfunction so as a matter of intelligence assessment i would be crazy if i said that doesnt enter into the equation. What do you tell them . The great advantage of the democratic systems in my experience as a citizen is we are pretty good at addressing them and fixing those flaws better than authoritarian systems. The proof is actually in the actions we take and not every action we take reassurance people about that as a society but i think that is the best and most honest answer to those kind of challenges. We try to demonstrate we are in a Political Institution and that we are committed to serving the best interest of the American People and building intelligence partnerships that they can rely onan and trust. You spend 32 years in the Diplomatic Service and then you took over cia 2021, so to me ana half years ago. You inherited an agency whose officers had been maligned by their commanderinchief who suggested he believed Vladimir Putin over his own spy achieves. Has the damage been repaired . You know, i think first i would say my predecessor deserves a great deal of credit for shielding be a Political Institution that the men and women of the cia are proud to be a part of from a lot of the criticisms into challenges that came in the last administration and you would have to ask my colleagues, but i am deeply proud of the work that our officers do as we sit here this evening and very hard places during hard jobs around the world the risks they take and sacrifices that they make not understood nor should they be publicly but im deeply proud of that and i think our officers take great pride in that as well so thats what i work very hard at every day. When you talk about the cia as an a Political Institution, when you go testify on the hill before theth full committee, the traditional thinking has been intelligence is too important to be politicized and get through no fault of the many fine men and women, the intelligence has been politicized. How do you think about that particularly in this moment leading up to another election cycle. My obligation and President Biden reminds me of this frequently, is to offer the best intelligence that we can collect and analyze straight up even when that is inconvenient to policymakers and ive spent enough time on the other the side of the table to know when its inconvenient when someones telling you your big new idea isntdy so big, not so new or effective. Our job is to be straight about that. Whether it is welcome, downtown at the white house or other parts of the executive branch were not. Its not an easy role to play but its an incredibly important one and one i take seriously and i know thehe director and others across the u. S. Intelligence community. Andot thats what our officers o the bestst to provide. I want to draw everyones attention to a recent New York Times headline for those who missed it the headline was william burns, the cia spymaster with unusual powers. My daughters got a big kick out of that. The most memorable line to my reading and im curious what yours was was the description of you, and i quote a tall discrete figure with ashen hair and a trimmed mustache, you could imagine whispering into a dignitaries year at an Embassy Party that the city is falling to the rebels and a boat will be more waiting in the harbor at midnight. [laughter]r] have you ever had occasion to whisper in a dignitaries year that a boat will be waiting in the harbor at night . Something to aspire to where you tickled when you read that, did they get it right . Tickled may not be the right word. E is there any aspect of your job thats fun . [laughter] fun is a strong term. But i genuinely do enjoy it. I genuinely enjoy the women and menn i work with. Im very proud of them. They learn something every day. Im a curious person and in the world of intelligence theres lots of new things to learn every day. I am concerned about my colleagues. I worry about all those people doing hard jobs and hard places, taking incredible risks as well. But i feel like we are performing an Important Service for our government and for our nation and we work very hard at it as well. While not every day is fun, some days have a little bit of fun in them. I genuinely enjoy what im doing and im very proud of the work my colleagues are doing. Does it look different when i mentioned you spent three decades inrv the foreign servic, you knew every world leader youd already dealt with them and already had if you were trying to design a crash course for the incoming cia director to understand you had taken the course. Especially with some of the creepier leaders. Is he still top of the list . It is a tight competition, but yes. [laughter]. But i do wonder knowing the issues and the people and the geography so well, does it look different from langley than it does at froggy bottom, the mission is fundamentally different or is it . It is fundamentally different. Our role at the cia is to support policymakers its not to be a policymaker. Thats something my colleagues and i understand very quickly. But part of our job just as it is for diplomats is to understand and navigate some very complicated foreign landscapes as well and using foreign languages, understanding history and culture and in that sense that theres some overlap in the skill sets that are required. The professions themselves are complementary in some ways but fundamentallyt different so no, as i said thats one of the things ive enjoyed most is learning something new about a profession that i felt in all those years almost three and a half decades iea understood prey well because they worked very closely with colleagues serving overseas and i know the intelligence they collected and the analysis they provided may be a better negotiator or investor, a better diplomat and id like to think that my experience on the policy side of the table and as a diplomat makes me wellequipped to understand what matters most to policymakers and therefore to make sure that we are providing at the pace that its required the kind of intelligence thats going to make the biggest difference to the smart policy choices. Theres many people in this room that have stressful intense relentless jobs. Very few of us whove been [inaudible] to tell russia you may not use a Nuclear Weapon, this cannot happen the consequences if you dont do a good job being persuasive are unimaginable how do you carry that responsibility . Dont dwell too much on what you just mentioned. [laughter] y you try to focus on the challenge at hand and thats one place we are having a lot of experience over the years. I trust the people i work with to helpor put me in the stronget position to deliver messages like that and i tried to be as professional as i can delivering with the president asked me to deliver. Do you get scared before you walk intoge a meeting like that . Not scared but there were times in my career i would be lying if i said i wasnt anxious about things but ive been at it long enough i just try to focus on the challenge of the mission at hand. We have just a couple of minutes left and i want to use it to try to figure out what we should be focused on that we are not. Ive run through the laundry listou of things, the top im going to start about russia, iran, the war in ukraine, we are going to talk cyber. Is there a country, a person, he placed on the issue journalists never ask you about that we should . I mean, i think as a government and sometimes as in the agency we dont pay enough attention to the continent of africa as o we should. This is a part of the world thats only going to become more significant for American Interest as the years flew by. The population of the continent of africa is likely to double before the middledd of the century. If you added to that of the unresolved problems of food and water and security and impact of Climate Change and unresolved regional conflicts, the governance in some places corruption and some of those places the way in which predatory players like the group and mercenaries try to take advantage of that. Its a challenge we cant afford to neglect. I traveled several times and my role as the director of cia, i worked very hard to try to support and provide resources. We were reminded of a politicl crisis has accelerated rapidly in sudan. The kind of challenges that matter enormously to the people of sudan, which suffered more than the humanitarian catastrophes over the years but can spell over and deepen the regional insecurity as well so thats an area where i try to stay as sharply focused as i can so thats one example at least. I think broader than that is this the revolutionary technology, and weve already talked about that a little bit. And the forum is focused on that but i think how well or how poorly we take advantage of emerging technologies as an agency not just to help policymakers but to understand vulnerability from supply chains and transforming our own tradecraft to take advantage of the changes and stay out of our adversaries youve got to make or break us as a professional Intelligence Service. So thats something we are also very sharply focused on which may not have been the case a ago. E send us out with the a word of advice we have a great Young Leaders Program Security forum. Young people in their 20s. What would you tell a 25yearold phil burns . My dad wrote to me when i was 25yearsold and i was trying to figure out whatin i wanted to do with my professional life and one possibility was going into the Foreign Service and my dad wrote me a letter that is quaint but some people did in those days and one line always stuck with meay he said nothing can me you prouder than to serve your country with honor, he was a career army officers. Thats what you do me a little bit at the time. I never expected for decades later to still be in Public Service, but throughout all those 40 years every year every job ive had ive learned the truth and those words of advice. So what i say to any 25yearold out there is Public Service theres always going to be a challenge especially in the Foreign Service in the cia it pulls theea challenges to families. You can ask my two daughters who are in their early 30s now changing high schools when youre 15 or 16 is not a lot of fun and theres a lot of risks people take but i wouldnt have traded it for anything. The opportunity to serve your country and to try to do it with honor as best you can i think is something that i would urge all of the 25yearolds out there to consider. We have a better year in recruitment and cia this past year. The biggest number of applicants since the immediate aftermath of 9 11. So i would encourage you all to consider that as well or any other form ofr Public Service. [applause]