It is my great pleasure vertu introduce todays speaker David Phillips for director of the Columbia Institute of humanrights to talk about his new book to talk about the erdogan dictatorship who has long experienced through three president s in the state department from United Nations office in with his own scholarship he has written numerous topics on the turkish armenians reconciliation and o course, years of practice as well as for wall diplomacy. But today i will engage in discussion with parts of the book the and open that up to questions from the audience. So tell us david about what inspired you to write this and why the pressing need now concert with your book an uncertain ally . Guest i always get a message from someone in turkey lamenting their circumstances they have been fired from their job, the newspaper column has been taken away from them. I think 30 or 40 times over the years i am so disappointed with the trend that turkey has taken an 33 they always enjoyed a special obligation juppe bollenbach from 1952 from the joint chairmans going shoulder to shoulder that is then Important Role during the of cold war with the eastern flank of nato and during the iraq war and if those refugees that were misplaced but unfortunately with elections in 2002 erdogan assumed a political position the following year turkey has amazingly become antiamerican. Nato is not just security Better Coalition of countries and because Erdogan Turkey is islamists islamists, antiamerican hostage ill to humanrights is an uncertain ally in nato and the allies were in europe. If nato was established to date no way that turkey would qualify for membership these are strong arguments but i want to get the origins of the popularity of erdogan. Doesnt he have accomplishments from Turkish Society . Election of 2002 established the head of government so as the response to the corrupt Political Parties and politicians. Also of response between turkey and the kurds in turkey. Such use those Election Results of 2002 as a breath of fresh air. Host you use that word that seems to be making a resurgence what does that mean blacks. The invisible blab of Security Officials or a bureaucracy or those who have a stake whenever tools are at their disposal and to have the invisible he and. And revealing the reach of the deep state to promise reform with the secular parties who are corrupted and turning to erdogan as the alternative. Were there early sign of erdogan broader ambitions to transform the apparatus . There were Early Warning signs that were antidemocratic as early as 1998 erdogan beside it a poem in the village has said the drones are the helmets and the bayonets the faithful are the soldiers. And went to court for using religion as a tool. So we saw early on the devotion of islam permeating his political approach but questions about his commitment to democracy also surfaced. Famously quoted after the 2002 elections to say democracy is like a streetcar you get off when you reach your destination. After the election they did not immediately move to consolidate his political power is but we saw over time and in the wake of the election that erdogan and the eight kepi to take rigorous steps to crack down to keep their image that is not the turkey u. S. Officials were comfortable with to be compatible with the e. U. For the natal membership. You wrote about 2013 being an important turning point. What happened . As people try to understand with other western capitals at what point does he turn away from the west with those policies . 2013 is an important transition point. This is the year of the vchip morrissey was removed and convicted in the show trial and there was a strong sense of kinship with erdogan in many ways the ideology of the akp and moslem brotherhood. Viewed the rs a zionist plot and was convinced the west was also plotting against him. And then the turks turned out to protest the and demolition of a green area for the sake of building a shopping mall. In the center of in simple in istanbul but it was not that the protesters against us the demolition. Women were told what kind of lipstick advise have many children to have and so these protest spread across turkey. So the police came into the park to crack down to end the protest they were accused of police brutality. A water cannon was used, a teargas those protests elsewhere also became a flash point have. So there was one item in 2013 we could use as a threshold measure. At the end of the year a huge Corruption Scandal europe did. There were taperecorded in the erdogan and his son talking who has the insidious reputation for corruption, told his father Million Dollars in the family home. Then say use the money to buy luxury apartments over the course of the day all of those recordings were made then later released so of the erdogan family in the deeply rooted Corruption Scandal many were forced to resign others were charged and corruption was another element of the problem. We saw a worsening of conditions in syria. Keep in mind they have such a direct impact on turkey as well. To say the u. S. Would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons. But turkey and erdogan against the rebels with the rebel stronghold. Erdogan right the thought that he received assurances from the u. S. But erdogan may the decision to enforce a cool of regime change and then started the groups that became the Islamic State through the gi highway across the border there worms weapons and Logistical SupportWounded Warriors from syria appeared in hospitals and friend explained how a spiders were brought to them through the National Intelligence agency as medical services demanded this was not happening occasionally but the systematic policy decision. With the National Intelligence agency and implicated in the 2013 analysis it to the manhattan corrections that is involved with moving goals those transactions could equal one per week so this is the policy taken and that the same time and believe some the tieins to the pkk 80 was taken by isis and u. S. Officials said iwas noa strategic battle but then we reconsidered it would be used as a propaganda tool so we started to deliver weapons and erdogan strongly objected with the u. S. Air power. But across the region, i should mention 40 were women. Todays International Womens day we should recognize that not only by kurdish men vat kurdish women. Joined by members of the of pkk and Iraqi Kurdistan. When erdogan seals of border to try to isolate their were protest all across turkey. So here again the ceasefire broke down into be besieged by a adversaries so erdogan became increasingly paranoid and delusional and those who witnessed his deranged behavior started to organize against him. So the whole situation in syria with the kurdistan factions and isis how is that comeback on domestic politics . So what is the domestic Political Developments erdogan is facing . But then you can tell us. Guest there is lot of speculation with the attacks against regime changes that were likely done by the freedom falcons also there have been reports of attacks from vice this. Will negative i suspect from the officials whether or not it is the Islamic State with the terrorist attack there is increasing evidence that the National Intelligence agency was engineering those attacks occurring before International Meetings which would gain support for the International Community. But they rallied a Political Base and around the issue accusing isis and the pkk to commit terrorist acts. Turkey has traditionally blamed one foreign powers for its domestic problems such the same time erdogan was bleeding kurds for domestic events turkey also took games into the United States. And to confront uh leading Political Party leading up through 2016 as serious falling out in the turkish relations and with one senior u. S. Official said everything changed when erdogan attacked his own people what theyre not that was systematic if they were organized by the state from a domestic audience or International Community but by 2016 erdogan had a siege mentality and also from his own people. What are the results . Pemex and unsurprisingly that showed a dramatic reduction but that said they still won over 40 percent but erdogan always pursues in agenda and in order to do that needs constitutional reform. When he suffered a defeat in the june 7th election it was greatly diminished. The margin was lower than ey hoped for. And actually they have decreased so look at the missile and in order to rally the base restarted the civil war with of pkk there was election november 1 presenting itself in winning more than 49 percent of the vote now they are moving forward from constitutional reform and a referendum for the people of turkey would have the chance to express their views of the executive presidency. So things have been very fast with these images of erdogan getting him is message out through social media with the location of the plane. Ha day you read the dynamics the speculation that the insider knowledge is the to. What do you know, pricks. I really dont know. But some say that erdogan himself was part of the coup that people and the military were needed to organize then he had already compiled a list and is soon as the coup was suppressed as it would be a started to roundup the turks and crack down. Igo enclave in my book he was the mastermind. But what may have happened is is Intelligence Agency and maybe russia intelligence knew what was on. That was the for the crew actually occurred were they attack the necessary steps from the outcome. The was one hour before the special forces showed up but the first thing youd do you arrester killed the head of state then sees the media. Neater these happened but the coup was surprised, widespread adulation for erdogan and from the mosques across the country to come to the streets to defend erdogan and then they would crack down hard. Today between 120 and 140,000 troops that were dismissed from their jobs. Give a sense of the of backlash who has been targeted . Who are the groups with their role but there are two ways to enter the question. Immediately to allege that the movement that was behind the coup. But it is the islamist teacher to sponsor the movement around the world. It seems pretty benign to me that somehow he was pulling the strings to mastermind the event. So the erdogan regime accused them of behindthescenes make even the United States to organize the coup at the pleasure of the United States and then requested the extradition so these allegations that the u. S. Somehow was also the puppeteer. The second part to your question is so people who had enough time, this included University Professors the independent media more than any other country members of the police, military, Civil Society local government officials there were an uncertain ally members of the Kurdish Party that were arrested that they were conspiring to commit terrorist acts. To vote against the executive president. The local community and civic organizations with prevalent targeting all sectors of the society they were prepared in the advanc with of crackdown and erdogan targeted anyone he could claim that opposed the regime of through the executive presidency. One of those International Dimensions and i am intrigued by Vladimir Putin and this seems like it has been a rollercoaster ride with the attraction down and up, do you view that dynamic take us through this relationship especially in the context with the ties with nato. So that event is the war on syria russia supports and turkey is supportive to the arab groups fighting against the regime but that is the starting point that is Pretty Simple to understand but it gets more complicated especially given the events when they shot down a russian fighter plane it is not clear where a was when it was shot down that precipitated a huge chasm to say it was a stab in the back against travel to turkey of agricultural goods or turkish construction firms. This cut deeply into the turkey economy that was already struggling. Then rather remarkably erdogan issued a letter of apology to the family of the russian pilot and the crew and went to st. Petersburg to meet and as a result there is a list of sanctions to normalize relations and as turkey backed away from its support they sought Common Ground with russia against the United States. Talk about the personality did they are remarkably similar cut from the same cloth they had a falling out but also transactional in their approach and they like to make deals. I would include president does not qualify as a it protagonist. But turkey and russia found Common Ground with the rapprochement was very shallow with some special forces that were killed it was needed at this time with the increasingly dense battlefield you have russian assyrian turkish and kurdish all are competing for the same impact of the battle then the United States with the special forces on the ground and a cavalcade imploring the trumpet ministrations to shift the support to the free syrian army. With that era bands any group in just from the election of trump. Would this the impacter the basis of the relationship and the Sticking Point of the ever approach meant quite. The presecurity advisor had a brief stint of 24 days calling for the extradition to abandon support with the fighters the decision that trump has stated is made by the generals. But there is the big issue that hast to be addressed trump and erdogan have a first phone call february 8. They found Common Ground trump made no statement about the crackdown in erdogan made no statement the travel ban so following day mike pence made statement of u. S. Turkish relations so it has then committed to repairing that bilateral relationship by the end of the obama administration. But it is more than a rhetorical exercise that will require specific steps to address of core concerns of first is to extradite to abandon the support sidee involved but the decision to extradite is not a political decision it is saying the goal decision legal decision with the evidence supplied to make a determination if that is sufficient for extradition made by a u. S. Judge the ruling has the option to present the case if the decision goes against them they can appeal. Were looking at months or years of deliberations until the trump illustration decides about syria in whom the u. S. Should align the u. S. Has cooperated closely in rebound that the 40,000 refugees have then our best allies we supported them when they liberated the Border Crossing and now those forces said include the majority are 5 kilometers out have fast for weapons to essentially destroy the caliphate as President Trump has vowed he would do to destroy a isis. There is the fear from the white p. G. The did is an extension of the pkk that is on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organization from the Iraqi Kurdistan but the Trump Administration said wash his hands because he cannot defeat one by supporting another stall that sounds good but they say this is a meeting about destroying terrorism in all its forms so keep in mind with the u. S. Negotiated with turkey, then they joined the fight by launching almost all of the attacks much to the dismay of the government that had shared platform. Thquestions arcerebral. Did th continue the support for the n. Y. P. D. . And has not been announced i am sure they are intended to nullify but if the pentagon prevails we will continue to expand the cooperation with the white p. G. When youre fighting organization that is the first question of concern the second question is what President Trump is called big unbeatable safe zone on the serious Turkish Border and the ypg has their boots on the ground to create a territory that is a continuous territory of those provinces to look at this says something similar to what happened which is moving toward becoming an independent state with a will in force that . Would take the special forces . A civil war within the civil war. Much more intensively than they are today. And there shooting at the syrian kurds but if we have this a son who will report wetzel we continue the cooperation or find some roll for those special forces . That is a hard needle to threadut theit passed to do with geneva the sustainable Peace Agreement for syria. It is hard to envision what syria looks like as the power is devolved from damascus with powersharing in the region as they read the exclusion of the United States that is rather remarkable they are an observer but then to invite those syrian kurds he presented his vision for the Syrian Government in the future and a parliament with the council of regions see you can imagine all