Mccain chairs this twohour hearing. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] good morning to the Senate Armed ServicesCommittee Meets this morning to receive testimony worldwide threats. Wo we are pleased welcome our distinguished witnesses didnt construct of National Intelligence and Lieutenant General ben stewart director of the Defense Intelligence agency. Out of respect for the scheduling commitments of our witnesses and the unanimou request on the part of all of our members we will include this this conclude the searing 11 30 in the interest of time tn ensure that members of the committee to be able to ask their questions. It will be very brief and very brief amount of that comes comes as a disappointment especially to the senator from south carolina. I would ask her witnesses to please submit their written statements for the record if they can. Its not required but last night horrific attack in manchester was a gruesome reminder that the world is on fire. Everywhere we turn you can see threats to the worlds rulesbased order and prosperity. When it comes to the Great National security challenges we face u. S. Policy and strategy are consistently lacking. Whether its china russia north korea or radical islamist terrorism i have heard a few compelling answers about how the United States intends to use itr alliances and its diplomacy its values but most of all its military to protect and defend our National Interests in the rulesbased order that supports them especially with sequestration as the law of the land. This is still a Young Administration coach and coherent policy and strategy take time to develop and we should be ever mindful that our adversaries are not waiting for us to get our act together. Time is of the essence. Senator lee. Two mr. Chairman and keeping with the time i will abbreviate my time but i asked thank you for holding this important hearing i want to thank herr witnesses for appearing herepro today to provide analysis of the National Security threats and other challenges facing usus around the world but i would also like to welcome back a former colleague dan coats to appear for the committee and general stuart thank you for your continued leadership in the defense of doesnt it. The military strategy organizes around socalled four plus one threats facing our nation and russia china north korea iran and the enduring nonstate challenge of violent extremism as we at witness last evening in manchester and gwen are thoughts and prayers go out to the people of england. We are pursuing these issues and i knows you gentlemen are at the forefront in terms of our intelligence efforts i appreciate what you do. The four plus one threat that ive just touched upon in forms a capability to develop the size of the force. However to paraphrase paraphrase former secretary gates we have a near perfect record in predicting the nature of the next threat we will face and we have always gotten around could rely heavily on on the telescreens to highlight emerging threats once we have an identifier ready and i hope witnesses will provide their candid thoughts on the other challenges we should pay close attention to moving forward in addition to the four plus one that ive outlined. Thank you. Since acquirements pressed i asked the committee to consider them military nominations and the nomination of honorable david l. Norquist to be undersecretary of defense comptroller Robert Bayville to be director of the Assessment Program that i wish the part defense Alain Mccusker to be deputy undersecretary for defense comptroller kerry to be Principle Deputy undersecretary to veteran intelligenceaffair mr. Kenneth koppel wanted to be assistant secretary of defense for moment security and favorably report the six nominations. O is there a second . All in favor say aye. The ayes have it. Welcome to our old and dear friend director coats and Lieutenant General stuart who continues to serve with distinction and great honor. Thank you director coats. Given your advanced age we begin with you. Senate thank you mr. Chairman. You and i have an ongoing race between who is the more aged and experienced and you win every time. Which is quite an accomplishment. Im pleased to be before you senator mccain and the Ranking Member reed and members of the committee. I must admit when i walked through the door instinctively i made a right turn trying to find my seat up on the panel and set oh yeah thats right i have to come down here. Youre welcome anytime to take a trip down memory lane. Thank you. That may reiterate what the chairman said relative to what happened in manchester last evening. I just returned from london a couple of days ago and met with all of my Intelligence Community colleagues there. We spent a significant amount ot time discussing threats to our respective homelands in thisom tragic situation that we see all too much of happening in t countries around the worldcu particularly our allies so once again reminds us that this threat is real. Its not going away and it needs significant attention. We will do everything we can to protect their people from these kinds of attacks. Im here today with Lieutenant General ben stewart to discuss the isis assessment with the multitude of threats facing our country. We will get brief opening comments and i will try to condense my opening remarks knowing this is an unclassifiedn session so we will have plenty of time for your questions. Escrn we are here to describe an conquest of the way the complexity of the threat environment which is ever expanding and is challenged to stay ahead of the adversary and this has not been an easy task. We appreciate the support fromre this committee to address the threats in a way that will give the president the congress and other policymakers the best and most integrated intelligence wem have assembled the interest of time i will discuss just some of the many challenges that we currently face. Of the the i. T. s written statement submitted earlier discusses these and many other threats in much greater detail. Let me start with north korea. North korea is an increasingly grave National Security threats United States because of its growing missile and Nuclear Capabilities combined with the aggressive approach of kim jongun. Kim is attempting to prove he has the capability to strike the u. S. Mainland with a Nuclear Weapon. We assess all flight tests thisu year including the two this month have demonstrated capabilities short of an icbm at this point in time however north korea updated its constitution in 2012 to declare itself a Nuclear Power and its officialse consistently state Nuclear Weapons as the basis for regime survival suggesting kim does not intend to negotiate them away. In syria we assessed the regime will maintain its momentum on the battlefield provided as is likely that maintain support from iran and russia are continuation of the syrian conflict will worsen our regarding dangerous conditions for Regional State pay prefer the morrissey wall now unable for the Syrian Regime used the agent sarin against the opposition in what was probably the largest chemical attack or the regime since august of 2013. Since that sarin attack we have observed more than five allegations of Syrian Regimes chlorine use. We assess that syria is probably both willing and able to use chemical weapons in future attacks. We are still acquiring and continuing to analyze all intelligence related to the question of whether russian officials had foreknowledge of the came out weapons attack. Let me turn to Cyber Threats. Cyber threats continue to represent a critical National Security issue for the unitedbee states for at least two key reasons. First our adversaries are becoming more bold more capable and more adept at using cyberspace to threaten our interests into shape for a world that comes in a number ofories r adversaries grows as terrorist groups criminal organizations and others continue to developd Cyber Capabilities. Second the potential impact of these Cyber Threats amplified by the ongoing integration ofr technology into our Critical Infrastructure and into our daily lives. We see this today in the form of a Ransomware Attack wannacry which affected services and individuals in 100 patients within days of its 12 day release. As the activity continues the t u. S. Government investigation is t going. G. The worldwide threat of terrorism is geographically diverse and multifaceted and it poses a continuing challenge for the United States, for allies and partners who seek to counter. Isis is experiencing territorial losses in iraq and syria however we assessed isis will continue to be an active terrorist threat to the United States due to its Proven Ability to direct and inspire attacks against the wide range of targets around the world and i might mention isis has claimed responsibility for the attack in manchester although they claim responsibility for virtually every attack and we have not verified the connection. Outside iraq and syria ice skate into foster interconnectedness, connectedness among its global branches and networks. They align their efforts to a strategy to withstand counter isis efforts. We assess that isis maintains intent capability to direct an able assist and inspire transnational attacks. Al qaeda and its affiliates continue to pose a significant terrorist threat overseas and they remained primarily focused on local and regional conflicts and homegrown violent extremists remained the most frequent and unpredictable terrorist threats United States homeland. This threat will persist with many attacks happening with little or no warning. Id like to take a quick run through key areas of the middle east and iraq. Baghdads primary focus through 2017 will be recapturing in stabilizing mosul and other territory controlled by isis. We assess iraq will still face serious challenges to its stability political viability and territorial integrity even as the threat from isis is reduced. Reconstruction will cost billions of dollars and is thus it. And political reconciliation will be an enduring challenge. And i ran through month public statements suggest that wants to preserve the joint comprehensive plan of action because it viewst the deal as a means to remove sanctions while preserving some Nuclear Capabilities. We assess the graymack has extended the amount of time iran would need produce enough fissile material for Nuclear Weapons from a few months to about a year. In the meantime tehrans malign activities continue. For example iran provides arms financing training and as many as 10,000 iraqi afghans and pakistani shia fighters in syria to support the assad regime. Iran has sent hundreds of its own forces to include members of the Islamic Revolutionary guard corps the irgc and i are cheesy quds force to syria as advisers. The reelection of president rouhani suggest the iranian populace broadly supports the jcpoa. Surely before the election rahimi criticized the irc g. , excuse me irc g. For attempting to sabotage the deal that called for iran to restart interactions with the world and not the end of quote the shadow of war. In yemen fighting will almost certainly persist in 2017 between food sea lions forces trained by iran in the gamman a governmentbacked by a saudi led coalition. Neither side has been able to achieve results through militars force. Al qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula aqap and the isis branch in yemen have exploited the conflict in yemen and collapse Government Authority to gain new recruits and allies with. Essment it assesses the political and security situation in afghanistan will almostss certainly deteriorate through 2018. Even with a modest increase in military assistance by the United States and its partners. This deterioration is underpinned by afghanistans dire economic situation. Afghanistan will struggle to curb its dependence on external support intella contains the insurgency or reaches a Peace Agreement with the taliban. Meanwhile we assessed the taliban is like weight to continue to make gains especially in rural areas. Afghan Security Forces performance will probably worsen due to a combination of taliban Operations Combat casualties desertions poor Logistic Support and weak leadership. Pakistan is concerned about International Isolation and sees its position through the prism of indias Rising International status including indias expanded foreign outreach and ties to the United States. Pakistan will likely turn to china to offset its isolation empowering a relationship that will help beijing to project influence in the indian ocean. In addition islamabad has failed to curb militants and terrorists in pakistan. Ts these groups will present a sustained threat to the u. S. Interest in the region and continue to plan and conduct attacks in india and afghanistan russia is likely to become ast more assertive nation and Global Affairs more unpredictable. Approach to the United States and more authoritarian in its approach to domestic politics. We assessed the russia will continue to look to leverage its military support to the assad regime to drive a political settlement process and syria on russias terms. Poli moscow is also likely to use russias military intervention in syria in conjunction with efforts to capitalize on fearstt of growing isis and extremist in threat and expand its role in the middle east. We also have noticed and discussed in significant detail and may do so during this session russias influence campaign and strategies to undermine Democratic Institutions. As i said i just returned from europe. Clearly in france and now in germany and with his pending the election in england with its pending election we are seeing duplications of what has happened here in our election so the russian strategy continues. Let me talk a little bit about ukraine and russia. We assess the moscow strategic objective to ukraine maintaining longterm influence and frustrating ukraines attempt to integrate into western institutions will remain remain unchanged in 2017. Russia continues to exert military and diplomatic pressure to coerce ukraine into implementing moscows interpretation of the politicall provisions of the agreement. Among them constitutional amendments that would effectively give moscowely give strategic decisions. I will finish up here with china. In china will continue to pursue an active foreignpolicy especially within the asiapacific region highlighted by a firm stance on competing territorial claims in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Relations with taiwan in its pursuit of Economic Engagement across east asia. China which views a Strong Military is a critical element in advancing its interests will also pursue efforts aimed at fulfilling its ambitious one build one Road Initiative to expand chinas Strategic Influence and economic role across infrastructure projects. In the interest of time and to answer questions i will defer assess defense which i trust we will discuss during the question period however i would like to make one final point on the Key AuthorityGoing Forward. As you are all well aware section 702 of the fisa amendments act is due to expire at the end of the year. I cannot stress enough the importance of this authority and how the icy does its work to keep americans safe. Section 702 is an extremely effective tool to protect our nation from terrorists threats. As i describe in my confirmatiot hearing 702 is instrumental. So much of the ics critical work protecting the American People from threats from abroad. We are committed to working with all of you to ensure that you understand not only how we use this authority but also how we protect privacy and Civil Liberties in the process. In conclusion the Intelligence Community will continue itsnc tireless work against these and all other threats that we will never be although we have extensive insight into many threats in places around the world we have gaps in others. Therefore we very much appreciate the support provided by your committee and will y continue to work with you to ensure the Intelligence Com