If everyone would take their seats, please, we are almost ready to start. Welcome everyone. I am barbara and i direct the program at the council and i am honored that they have asked me to moderate this extremely timely panel about the iranian elections and also about President Trumps visit to the middle east. Before we start, i want to thank congressman jared huffman, thanks to him we have the room. Also the fund and the Rockefeller Fund for supporting the work that we do. Weve got a great panel. We will start with a bestselling author of fabulous books about iran including the ayatollah begs to differ and the ayatollahs democracy. He has spent a lot of time going back and forth between the u. S. And iran and he certainly understands the political dynamics of the country very well. Then we will have a cofounder and executive director of the International Civil Society Action network. She has published extensively on gender, peace and Security Issues and also knows a great deal about iran and regional dynamics. Finally nyack Research Director and he came here after serving at the state department in the office of iranian affairs. We will begin with a few questions for me and we will open up to you. They have lots and lots to talk about. Let me begin by asking for their impressions of a split screen reality that we had over the past two days. We had iranians dancing in the streets because they are reelected hassan and we had President Trump giving a very stern warning to iran from riyadh. Quickly, your impressions of both. I think the irony was lost on President Trump that he was speaking those words against iran and as the foreign minister said the bastion of democracy in the middle east. Yes, i think the election obviously was an important election because they were faced with a very stark choice, either go back to the days of, shod or move forward slowly at snails pace, but move forward in terms of re engaging with the world and fixing the economy which was of paramount importance to most iranians who live there. Looking at the cabinet of doctor ronnie, the accomplished people who were running the people on a daytoday basis, the choice was pretty simple, especially since the pendant had essentially said he would surround himself with the people in the cabinet. For the iranians, the stark choice became an obvious choice for most. Even people in the provinces who many people in america thought would vote for the conservative because everyone always assumes if the system, the regime and the Supreme Leader himself are in favor of one candidate then surely he will have a huge advantage. Its actually been the opposite overtime, and i cannot believe the system or regime as we call it doesnt know that, that every time you make it very clear that one candidate is your favorite, the chances of him winning become less so, i think iranians saw that new audience. I think they saw there was this opportunity to either reject this populism or return to the old days of difficulties with sanctions and isolation from the International Community or to move forward. As we got closer to the actual voting day and the media, both inside and outside iran and the persian language and the french language throughout the world were saying its a close race, we dont know how to call it, in the age of trump maybe they will be afraid and they want a hardliner. There was this nervousness which actually caused a lot of iranians to come out and say thats not what we want and i think the overwhelming attitude of the media that this was going to be a close race or we didnt know what was going to happen brought about what people getting engaged and saying no, we have to stop this, this is a vote against the conservative, probably in some ways, almost more so about for the doctor himself as a person. We all know what the result is now. In terms of President Trumps trip to the middle east and sword dancing with arab prince princes, its hard to imagine something less useful for the region than to ally yourself as closely as the United States seems to want to with saudi arabia. And so, i think for the iranians, they are just taking a waitandsee attitude. I think he made it very clear as has his foreign minister that they will wait and see what actions the United States takes. The foreign minister mocked President Trump on twitter for essentially milking the saudis for money and his big arms deal and other investments with saudi arabia, but they will, im sure that doesnt please iran in terms of the kind of arms that will be sitting inside arabia, but their own experience in terms of their military might has been that its not all its cracked up to be. The two week war in yemen which was supposed to be only two weeks is now in its second or third year end without american help the saudis probably cant fly many of their planes or accurately drop their missiles and bombs. I dont think iran is overly worried about the arms buildup of saudi arabia, but i think they are worried and we will have to wait and see where trump takes american foreignpolicy because there is no iran policy right now and the really isnt very much of a middle east policy. We would love to have the palestinians and israelis settle their differences, but we know its not the simplest thing in the world. In terms of yemen and syria and iraq, afghanistan and other issues in the region, nothing is simple as everyone knows and i think the iranians will just wait and see what actual real steps they will take. At the press conference he said we will wait, he was asked about the trump remarks and about iran which were quite harsh and he said we will mak wait for the american policy to settle down. I thought that was a very cautious response. It was more diplomatic than saying they dont have a foreign response. Take this further. This u. S. Alliance with saudi arabia, it can cut a couple of ways. If the saudis are reassured that america is really behind them, might they become more amenable to actually talking to iran . One thing he said in his press conference, he thanked the saudis for resolving a dispute. There were a lot of iranians who died in the stampede if you hears back. Could this embrace of the saudis help or will it make a difference in foreign governments and the willingness to invest in iran and help the economy . Thank you. Its great to be here. So its interesting because that dance was a war dance. It was the contrast of trump and the saudis being in some sort of awkward looking war dance while across iran people were dancing for joy and peace and this is something to bear in mind in terms of thinking about what was going on. What worries me is that the u. S. Has now gone hook line and sinker for the saudi version of the islamic story. The saudis have been a French Version of what is Islamic Culture and they have worked very hard to try to make themselves the leader of the entire sunni world and trump is falling for that. Thats a very dangerous issue because its basically extremism going in the mainstream in the sunni world. To me, what struck me is the u. S. Or the administration is getting the wrong end of middle east and islamic history and is on the wrong side of the future. From the iranian side, how do you deal with someone who wants to go to war with you. The best thing you can do is reach out a hand of friendship. It must be very annoying to have him come out and say we want to thank you and engage and so forth. I think its a clever move and i hope it would open up the space. We cannot have any attempted peace in the region if we dont have the audience there. So constantly going on about isolation doesnt make sense. Everybody knows that. This is just rhetoric. Coming on the heels of the election, the sect, geography, rich, poor, everybody was out there. Ive never seen the iranian diaspora out across the world so systematically. We are saying something to the world, and what we are saying is we want political evolution, we want nonviolent progress and change, we want, we dont want to go back to bad things, we were trying to bring about positive change and it demonstrates a deep democratic mindset in the country. This is another piece that mustnt get lost. To bring about democracy you cant bring democracy. [inaudible] so weve been trying to do with iraq and afghanistan. You need the institutions to help foster the norms and principles and laws but you also need a Critical Mass of people who keep demanding that of you. In iran, over the past 15 years we are seeing the depth of the mindset is really becoming rooted. Once you have that you cant take it away. Its like literacy. Once you know how to read nobody can take that away from you. Globally, at a time where people are realizing politics do matter in their status quo but things can always get worse, that is an Important Message that iran is sending to the world. It would be a really big missed opportunity. In fairness, we should say that the Trump Administration has not excluded talks with iran. Sean spicer, at a briefing last week said iran and russia would both be needed to resolve syria. I think its the first time he mentioned iran in the context and Rex Tillerson in saudi arabia was asking and he said he will talk to the iranians when the time is right. So, even though they are embracing the saudis and making harsh statements about their role in the region, theyre not entirely closing the door. I dont think you can say that any door has been closed just yet on foreignpolicy because trump in saudi arabia was really the opening salvo and the middle east more specifically. There are three things that stood out about this trip. Theyre problematic. Theres no other way to say it and i think calling it problematic is putting it diplomatically. First, when you announce billions of dollars worth of arms deals, we have to be realistic about the fact that the saudis are almost broke. You dont have to take my word for it, theres many articles. They are running out of money. They are privatizing and offering shares because theyre going broke. How are they going to pay for all of this is a question we should be asking ourselves. Thats the optimistic point. The more troubling point is that it looks like the Trump Administration has accepted the saudi and israeli view of Regional Security they have been pushing for at least 25 years and no american president prior to this administration has accepted that view and its predicated on three things, one, isolate iran, to ignore human rights and three forget diplomacy with iran. That is a recipe for war. Its served as the backbone for what the Obama Administration tried to put it pivot away from. Not coincidence in any way shape or form. The third point i make is that everything that happened in saudi arabia is the opposite of America First because at best we are extorting the saudis. At worst, we are now their mercenary in the middle east because, as robert gates said they are willing to fight down to the last american. There are a lot of Unanswered Questions related to the trip that took place in saudi arabia and the new framework or architecture for security that is trying to be set up. The last thing i would say about the saudi trip that is very troubling to me and that i guarantee you almost all of my former colleagues in the u. S. Government agree with is that Durable Solutions to complex requires the buyin of every country with the cap half city to wreck the solution. Just like you cant solve Regional Security problems without the United States of table or without the israelis at the table, you cant solve it without iran at the table. If you exclude any of those actors, iran, america or anyone else, it incentivizes the excluded party to disrupt, dismantle and destroy the process they are not a part of. So again, if you are excluding any actor we should be asking yourselves what are we working towards. Let me follow, we arent excluding iran completely. U. S. Sent a delegate to the talks about syria that were iran, russia, turkey. There have been various statements suggesting the door is not closed. What you think about the theory that and we embrace the saudis they will somehow grow some courage and be willing to talk to iran. Does anyone think thats realistic or my just putting a positive spin on this. I dont think youre putting a positive spin on it, i think thats what we would all like to see. I think we would like to see our traditional partners in the middle east not be free riders, however the Obama Administration tried to do something similar. The Obama Administration had record arms sales and gave almost, not entirely, almost a blank check to what saudi arabia was doing in yemen. Perhaps its too early to render judgment, but what i like about what obama tried to do is having a limit, shall we say and trying to balance the embrace of the saudis with continued and sustained dialogue through a variety of channels with iran and i dont think weve seen the Trump Administration take advantage of the channels that the Obama Administration established. Think we have to remember obama told the saudis one of the reasons they hated him as he said they had to share the region with iran which is a perfectly reasonable thing, a country of 80 Million People, of course you have to share it so i dont know if its the personalities involved in saudi decisionmaking are young, hotheaded it appears, and i dont know if they are easily persuaded to sit down with their iranian counterparts. Actually there are no 30yearold iranians running the country so there are no counterparts. Se. I dont know if theyre willing to sit down with them. I hope they could be persuaded to. You wanted to add something. Lets go back to iran internally. As he well pointed out, this was a choice that iranians made and i wrote about it this morning for the atlantic council. Think theres also a fear that with trump in the white house at the possibility of confrontation with iran could grow and iran needed steady hands, but he made a lot of promises during the campaign. Im curious what you all for c in terms of issues like human rights and freedom of expression. Will people be released from jails . What about the dual nationals. And others that are in jail. Will he be able to make more bold steps in a second term given he has a bigger popular mandate than he did in the first or will the curse of iranian president s who always seem to get weaker in their second term applied to him too . Its hard to say whether he will be able to fulfill his campaign promises. He wasnt in his first term but i think we should remember, outside of around, we pay a lot more attention to prisoners, particularly dual citizen prisoners of which i think there are six or seven at this point than iranians at home too. Everyone, during this twoweek campaign inside iran according to the media we read they were talking to voters and they were talking about how the atmosphere for social change had been better. The impression inside iran is better than it was. Outside iran it looks worse because there are more americans in jail than there were earlier other than the hikers who were not americans. And if you are brothers. There is more. And the house arrest, that something iranians care about, but i dont think thats the biggest priority for them. Although they would like to see that. More political freedom, no question about it. I still think we see human rights as a bigger issue than americans who are interested seeing it as a bigger issue than most iranians inside iran even though human rights means more social freedoms and more ability to speak their mind or freedom of the press as opposed to actual people in jail. When you look at the population, even of young people in jail, its not significant. They havent imprisoned 40000 journalists like how many has turkey imprisoned. s not 40000 journalists but 40000 people. My point is i think they are well aware of all this. He is aware hes got to provide a better economy first and foremost. More social freedoms in the way that most young people want those freedoms. The dancing on the street, holding hands, men and women cold mingling and stuff like that. Those are a priority. I think theres no question he would like to see the dual citizens released. Its a thorn in the side of potential relations with the west including england where they do have business interests and vice versa read whether he will be able to or whether the hardliners will back down a little bit or whether the Supreme Leader will ask that they back down is another question. Its hard to say. On a personal capacity, im always a little reluctant about having to compare ourselves to whats happening in egypt and the worst and worst and worst cases. My preference is to say we came up with this 200 years ago, why cant we be the bastion of human rights, not only in the region but in the world. That would be a lovely way to think about how things could move. Having said that, sanctions were the greatest human rights attack on the average iranian over the years. When you think about babies and pregnant women and people with cancer, and all the issues we were faced with, for us, for the world to sit here in the secretary of state to talk about human rights in iran and not addressed this aspect of it is hypocrisy. We have to put that into perspective. Finally, whats amazing for me is the richness of the debate during the elections. Its true, im sure if he had put his name up for elections we wouldve gotten through to run, but the nature of the debate was a whole different thing. The conversations were very broad, very serious about womens rights and minorities and so forth. The discussion is out there and the demand is out there. Its a question of if we isolate and threaten then internally things will become tough as well whereas if there is engagement a lot of issues can dissipate and the fear can follow it. I would like to see that, but as i said, ive wish we dont have to say nextdoor they have 40000 people in jail or women are treated worse. And on the question of women, seriously, we have 100 million to ivanka trump, its an offense to every woman in the world frankly, especially muslim women who have to live with the subject nation of women. To have this happening and watch whats going on in iran, you just cant compare. What are the chances for the dual nationals to be released as a gesture to trump and what are the chances for reconciliation within iran, but 2009 legacy, is it possible we could finally see some of that passing. These are important questions and the dual National Question obviously is an important one and its personal because a lot of these guys are personal friends. We all have a vested interest in a deepseated desire to see dual nationals released as soon as possible. It also highlights the fact that there are different branches of power and different Power Networks inside the iranian government, and a big reason why they do this is to try and weaken and destabilize certain Power Networks that want sustained outreach and dialogue and engagement with the outside world. So, that being said, i think in the short term we are probably not going to see dual nationals get released, but the track record of dual nationals being detained and imprisoned for ridiculous amounts of times is that eventually they become a liability for the government as a whole regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum. Every time they do this they backed themselves into a corner and they need a way out. The Obama Administration has helped give them a facesaving way out. It remains to be seen whether or not the Trump Administration is even willing to entertain the idea of using direct diplomacy or multilateral diplomacy to help find a way out of this particular problem. As it pertains to the legacy of 2009, you dont have to take my word for it. Iranian voters have twice utilized present ronnies campaign as a way to continue channeling what they thought in 2009 and 2013 and now 2017. The election was not a landslide, it was a bloodbath. He won in the provinces and the local election, he won in his rivaled home cities, he iran and one in all of the holy cities. Ronnie won not only the vote he also won in the local council election. A woman one in the local council election. We have to understand the magnitude of this victory, understanding full well there are unelected officials who will try to put up tools and roadblocks, but the point i want to make is if we can acknowledge that sitting here in washington d. C. , you Better Believe iranian voters who overwhelmingly voted for him understand that. They are willing to play the long game and theyre willing to try to bring about peaceful change in a way that we havent seen in this part of the world for quite some time. To me, that is impressive, i respected and i think it behooves the International Community, whether its United States or anyone else to step back and say if they have the sprea preference and aversion to unrest, perhaps we should respect that. I will open up to your question spread we have a microphone. Raise your hand, say who you are and ask a question. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask you, given the debates and the iranians being ready to talk to the american, non Nuclear Sanctions and secretary tillerson saying they must stop Ballistic Missile tests and everything, do you think these are sending messages or exchanging messages with each other, setting terms for future talks . In the press Conference Today he said, if there is a National Consensus and the leader allows so yes, no, i dont know. It certainly his preference. He has a longstanding track record of wanting to use diplomacy to resolve conflicts but the point they may is cracked and it speaks to a bigger point that decisions are made by consensus and as a result things move slow or can be blocked which is why they asked for greater mandate than what he got four years ago but it remains to be seen whether they will move. Even if they could move, even if the leader wakes up tomorrow and says lets lift all sanctions, great idea, it takes two to tango. American president s are only as smart as the people he or she surround themselves with an President Trump has not surrounded himself with anybody that i know of that is inclined to support the diplomatic dialogue that obama did. Im not optimistic on that front. I dont think the problem really lies in iran, i think it lies here in the United States. Thank you very much for putting such a great panel together. This question is for you, in your expert opinion, what should be the political strategy for iranians to reach out to the saudis and reduce the tension and hopefully, im sure on a longterm basis they could benefit to having a dialogue. What should be the strategy . Thats a great question. I think its one of the most important questions we can ask because iran and saudi arabia are the two pivotal countries in the region which is why the United States wants to have a functional relationship with both and not just one. But they should also have a relationship with both. They upended the kind of regional order that existed that had iran in the penalty box and by no accomplishment of their own, they were empowered by the invasion of iraq and afghanistan. The saudis feel like they need to push back to attain some level, thats what they feel right now and thats what ive gathered from diplomacy meetings where ive heard them talking more forthcoming and freeflowing where they dont feel the need to attack talking points as they often do in public. However, there has been at least a half dozen instances from 2013 where the administration has reached out to the saudis very publicly or privately, bilaterally and multilaterally and everything of time except on the issue of the hodge which thankfully proved to be fruitful, but every other time they been rebuffed. I think the Obama Administration also tried when they said publicly that they need to learn to share the region which no american president has said, in my recollections since the end of world war ii. Anyhow, the defense minister and the deputy crown prince came out and said there is no reason to talk to iran. Why would we talked to iran and then went on a secretary and rants. I am hopeful with a bit of cajoling, particularly from the european and the United States, they can move away from that position but im not optimistic. My name is matthew. I am from congressman zelmans office and i really see some of the merit and the points that everyone has made. However, i do think its important to address the other side of the story and play a little devils advocate. I would just like to cast a little skepticism. Its unfortunately easy to see that the Iranian Regime and specifically the revolutionary guard have destabilized a lot of the region. Either on a material level or. [inaudible] they have destabilized iraq, syria, lebanon and other parts of the region in their effort to spread shiite ideology. My question to you all would be, do we really think this is the best way to share the region with saudi arabia . Do we really think this is the best way to have an aversion to unrest and bloodshed . Do we really think this is the best way to affirm that we cant bring democracy on the back of the tank when the Iranian Regime, unfortunately continue to support the stabilizing elements in the region. I just want to ask one clarification. I did understand the question, but i dont understand the question, is what the best way. Do we really think that it is smart strategically to support proxy wars or struggles in other countries in the middle east on behalf of of shiite forces weather in iraq or syria or lebanon or elsewhere, and israel i guess its more Muslim Forces because hezbollah will sometimes side with hamas against jewish states or do we really think that is a smart strategy number one, and number two are we sure that even the election of president ronnie will be anywhere near enough to overcome the Supreme Leader himself who wields quite a bit of form policy influence in the country. I dont want to get into a lesson about shiite and sunni, but two things, when you look at the muslims in the world, 13 13 15 call themselves this. There is a level of diversity. There isnt that much in common except for certain fundamental beliefs they have. The other 85 fall under the sunni world. Now iran, if you think about how much influence could iran possibly have, actually its not that much because it is linguistically not the same as the arab world. Culturally its very different and it is of this minority shia sect. Let me give an example. If you take protestants and catholics, how many people do you know who are protestants who will easily turn from being a protestant to a catholic or vice versa. People dont switch their religion and their faiths that easily. The idea that we have the spreading of shiism and you could even equate it to what the saudis have been doing, its a false narrative. Its a narrative that they have been wanting us to understand for many years and its a false one because they are on the fringe of the saudi side and they have been putting money and resources into every single Muslim Community around the world and telling them our version of islam is what sunni and some really should be and i can give you lots of material on this. This is a false narrative. To your point about proxy wars, absolutely we should not be in the game of proxy wars. We should not be helping fuel saudi planes to bomb yemen. This is something we should not be doing. We should not be selling arms and enabling people. We are part of the proxy war. No one has clean hands in that region. Tell me which country has clean hands. Everyone has got blood up to their elbows. All of us and especially those of us were taxpayers because it is our taxpayer. I think what we are seeing right now in the case of iran with all the problems that exist is that there is a population of about 80 Million People who are saying we dont want violence anymore. We want engagement. We want diplomacy. We want dialogue and to bring about the changes we need. This is a really Important Message to take back to congress, that these proxy wars are not a good idea, the approach of the United States in the past 15 years has been a little bit like the cap hat comes back. If you look at that story, the one master we go to clean it up and theres a bigger mess. This is not working anymore. We have to try something different. I agree with you, no proxy wars, but its important to get the notion of who we are supporting and who has more power. If i could just add something, iranian influence in the region goes back because iran has been there for thousands of years to the idea that you could somehow separate the arab and persian, the shiite and the sunni is completely unrealistic. Iran was very active in lebanon before the iranian revolution. The shaw started adding up the shia population because they had historically been discriminated against between the sunnis and the christians even though they were already a plurality in society. In a sense, after the revolution the islamic regime double down and took organizations and turned them into hezbollah. The syrian Iranian Alliance goes back also a long time during the iraniraq war, it was the only arab country that supported iran against iraq. So you cant just, if you look at iraq, shiism of course has been the center. You cant just draw a dividing line between these communities as much as the saudis would like that. Of course you have shiite in saudi arabia and the majority in bahrain and kuwait and when they are mistreated, as they often are, they are sort of force to look to iran as a protector because its the largest shia country. Think what were all asking is you look at this in all of its nuances so that you dont see it as blackandwhite. Certainly im not comfortable with iran supporting the asad regime, i dont know how many people are with the atrocities its committed, but there is a reason for their involvement in these countries. I just want to add to that, i think this narrative that iran is spreading instability which is promoted very much by saudi arabia and some of the other persian gulf states and of course israel, lets look at the facts. Playing devils advocate is all well and good, but we should not get away from the facts. First of all weve only come to understand what they are after our invasion of afghanistan and iraq so we started, the United States started this instability in the region. They are protecting their interests. They are protecting iranian interest and iranian interests are that iraq is on one side of them which brought a war in afghanistan on the other where they almost went to war with the taliban. It was there before the invasion in 2002. So, i think looking at how iran is spreading instability, its actually just protecting its own view, its protecting its interest. As far as the iranian people are concerned. By and large, im not saying everybody, they are protecting terrorism from crossing the borders to prevent complete destabilization in afghanistan which threatens iran. And, to support shiite communities where they are being oppressed by the majority sunni which is less about sectaria sectarianism than we would like to think about, but its only because there she is that there supporting them. I think most iranians dont even think about that even though we call them shia. They look at it from a purely strategic way and they look at it. From a National Interest view. It is irans National Interest for syria to remain an ally, not be an ally of saudi arabia. So i think the narrative has to be we cant accept simply one narrative. Im not thing you should accept the iranian narrative but we couldnt accept this saudi reasoning either. Iran and iraq bought an eight year war. 60 of the iraqi army at the time was shia. If the shia affinity question was so large, those guys would have maybe switched sides. They didnt. They fought as iraqis against iran. The notion of the affinity and the power and influence is something that probably, its to their advantage to project but its not as great when you come down to it as it is in terms of the geopolitical interest. Although in the back. Do you view. Can you tell us your name. Do you believe theres any potential with the u. S. Indirectly engage he or directly engaging any diplomatic talks with respect to the potential to reconvene District Party talks with north korea regarding Nuclear Nonproliferation or the water crisis in afghanistan . Do you believe the Current Administration within the United States could indirectly or directly engage in any talks. I think its a very good question. I think it allows me to make a very important point so im glad you asked it. We have this thing called the jcp away, the iran nuclear deal. Every few months, all of the countries get together and they meet in this thing called the joint commission. A novel idea that was included in the deal. When Rex Tillerson goes to the podium and says that sometime i will probably cross paths, he knows he will because he has to. He doesnt have a choice. So yes, there is an opportunity, at the very least to pass messages. If we are smart and we want to use all the levers and tools of American Power we will do more than just pass messages. We will sit down and have bilateral meetings and sitting down and having bilateral meetings on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting is not capitulation. At the demonstration of strength and the Obama Administration proved that and the rest of the International Community or the global powers that sat down and agreed to this deal with us also share that view. I would love to see whether its direct or indirect through the world banks and others, some serious work around Water Management. That is the biggest crisis that the country is facing right now. We have problems on the side of the ill as to whether or not they actually believe in Climate Change but that would help break through the laterals. Let me just add, we had an event couple weeks ago at the Atlanta Council on people to people ties and we have in the past had iranian academics come to the United States for seminars on things like proper Water Management and its a great area and we should devote more resources to that kind of thing, not in not imposing these events. Thank you so much. A quick, and a question. I think its very fair to point out that much of what the iranians are doing is not helping stability in the region, but the context is important. However much they have tried to, no one has achieved greater cause of instability than the invasion of iraq in 2003. Its the single most destabilizing event in the history of the middle east for the past 20 years. Adding weapons sales to saudi arabia will probably rank is number two, but something i think is on the minds of a lot of people in congress is that there is a Senate Sanctions bill as well as a house bill. The senate one will be marked up next week. Members of the obama team negotiated deal including whats otherwise recognized as a pro sanctions and adam has come out and said this would violate the jcp away. If this passes and it does violate, how do you expect iranians to react. What do you expect the reaction to russia, china and europe to be if the United States through congressional actions starts killing the nuclear deal. I think the indications have been, and its hard to predict the future, i think iran experts are pretty much on the same level as astrologers in terms of predicting the future. Im not going to predict, but the indications have been that iran, particularly they will continue to abide by the jcp away to the extent that they cam without falling a file of American Life they have companies or banks doing business in america, they will continue to abide by it and i think iran will as well. For iran to have america be the bad guy is the biggest gift you can give them. For the europeans to say america is the bad guy here and is not abiding by a deal they agreed to is again a gift to the iranians. I mean that to be the government of iran. They have indicated obliquely they will continue to abide by the deal as long as they are not, as long as its not torn up. I dont think its in the hands of the United States to tear up the nuclear deal. There is nothing to tear up. Its an agreement with a bunch of other countries. They would have to tear up the United Nations Security Council resolution which they are unable to do because they cant get past the russian or chinese veto. I think iran, with the United Nations and with all the other countries that are supportive will continue. Thats my view. Again, im being a palm reader, but thats my view that they will continue to abide by it. Just to thoughts on that, number one i would love to see how they explain it, 41. 5 Million People who came out to vote for moderate moderation would react to a new sanctions bill coming from the United States. I think this would be setting up in the next generation to really be anti american when apparently theyre not. On the u. S. Side, i think we need to be looking at this because frankly speaking, i dont think the europeans and others are going to go without. They will try to do their business with iran as much as they can and large American Multinational Companies will continue to benefit because they open up their subsidiaries and that becomes the way they can engage in iran. People who get hurt are the midsize American Companies who dont have that capacity. Its actually inside the u. S. Where there might be a lot of potential for trade and business that will get the raw end of the deal if the sanctions continue. I would just add one thing, i agree completely, the track record of their Nuclear Program and its interaction with the rest of the world more generally in the United States more specifically is every action reads a reaction. As we systematically advance sanctions, did iran capitulate . No. They systematically advance the technical aspects. We stacked up bargaining chips and around stacked up bargaining chips. Fortunately we froze everything in place, if not reduced it and we put a ceiling on top of their Nuclear Program. Every aspect of the supply chain is completely monitored. Thats unprecedented in the history of the world. This idea that more sanctions is going to produce no response i find farfetched. However, there are a variety of responses but i think the iranian government would very actively consider that would not be outright violations of the nuclear deal as passing the sanctions in congress would be. Particularly on the aspect of research and development as it pertains to their Nuclear Program because it has nothing to do with centrifuges or uranium. Thats all acquiring knowledge. Thats not to say the United States or other members of the International Community wouldnt considered to be provocative, but you cant make the case that theyre trying to build a bomb when everything is frozen and a ceiling is built on top of everything thats frozen and all centers are doing is science and theres been no tangible application to it as it pertains to program so if anything, what these new sanctions will accomplish is a weakening over time, and erosion over time of americas ability to control the International Financial networks and communities and banks. Jacob lou warned about this in his exit interview before he left the treasury department. He very specifically said and overuse of unilateral american sanctions will, over time, erode not only american credibility but American Financial power. This is something that every Congressional Office needs to take into account before they move forward on this bill. I might also point out your congressman and senators that the chinese are very actively promoting their one belt, one road project. There are real lin links and seedlings being built all through central asia from afghanistan up through russia. These are the kind of projects that will be affected by american sanctions and that will probably serve to minimize American Economic power in that part of the world. We risk isolating ourselves if we continue down the road of unilateral sanctions without any reason. You have been very patient. Please, wait for the microphone even though Everybody Knows who you are. Thank you. I wonder if you could give us more of a sense of the richness of the debate during the elections and if things like her honey criticizing the National Guard will come back to hunt him or has this debate open things up more for the iranian people . Its a good question, what weather will come back to haunt him. I think certainly there will be some pushback were not happy with his criticisms of the guards and publicly said so. The two areas he attacked were the military and the judiciary. I think people, generally speaking, the guards would have been opposed to many of his policies regardless of whether he attacked him or was nice to him in the debates. I think people will just go past that now at this point and say well the elections over, now we are just gonna pursue our interests. I dont think there will be any real pushback on the level that one might worry about. Lets remember hes also very different from the previous reformist government. He is much more of an insider and a National Security guy, i wouldnt say reformist but much more than a regime insider and has an ability to save things that i dont think others have unless he wants to go to jail. I think for him, because of his position and who he has been over the last 38 years, in his acceptance speech, he thanked him for his support and recognized as someone who was instrumental in getting the young people to come out and vote. I dont think will come back to haunt him particularly. During the campaign they get to party in the streets at night which are two things they love to do. I guess the question is whether these freedoms will persist. There will be dancing in the street two months from now it is there anyone else who hasnt asked a question. Wait for the microphone please. [inaudible] [inaudible] i think one of the things that gets the saudis goat is that iran has already been able to get more bang for its buck. They are an opportunistic power, doesnt have natural allies in the region and it has been able to take advantage of opportunities, grievances, often among the shia communities and other communities, put a little money and, little expertise and get a big result. The saudi spend billions and billions and they still seem to be afraid. I ask you, which country is feeling more secure. Ronnie was asked about this during a press Conference Today whether he was worried about all the money that the saudis were spending on new weaponry. He said no, we make weapons, we dont buy them. Thats not entirely true, they do buy them and they would like to buy them, but theres a sense that iran has become more selfreliant and has learned to pay play the proxy game more effectively. I think its defensive and offensive. Its a way to project. [inaudible] theyve done it very well and for us to double down on policies that havent worked, i think the United States should try to have some option. Its not necessary to choose one of the other but we should be able to avail ourselves of connections with all of these countries and try to find what in american interest. I think we have time for one more. Wait for the microphone please. [inaudible] with him trying to unite, do you think he has taken over the uniting force behind the mot ill answer that amanda went to circle back to the first point greaterthansign impact figures no way anybody can predict the next Supreme Leader is going to be. But what we can say with 100 certitude is having the presidency within your control and the ability to help the budget all plays into the favor of those who would like to see somebody like rouhani or someone rouhani minded. Ask the original point, the coalition that he helped usher together that blossomed into rouhanis presidency and he was trying for these 10, 15 years before it happened to make that happen and it was finally the extremists took over all branches of government and other conservatives saw the light in my view. Looking ahead, while i do think he was and will continue to be a kingmaker because at least in my view, im more interested to see if rouhani steps. Im more interested to see a rouhani can cultivate his own independent base of support in ways in a car about this metal pass and keep together the most inclusive Political Coalition between the iraniraq war. I think he think he can, but nobody knows for sure. You get the last word in thank you for that. I went to get more credit to the iranian people. What we are seeing is people are coming out and they are making them decisions that are tactical, strategic, transactional. People are making their own choices and go in the direction they want. This is a populist, which you cant ignore. And we see it in politics. The question about human rights and other issues. They are having to respond to what the public is raising. This is an Amazing Development in this country. Its been 38 years since the revolution. The iranian population at 36 Million People at the time of the revolution 1979. 41 Million People voted for change and reform predominantly. These are stored as tsunamis that change we are seen and i think they deserve the credit for that. Annan that we are to stay thank you outdoor speakers and thank you all for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] iranian president rouhani was reelected on friday to a four year term and he pledged to further up in iran to the international committee. Today called relations with the United States a curvy road come the same he hopes the Trump Administration will better understand it. President trump is in today and recently sane israelis and arabs share common causes against stricter the middle east. Never let anyone define you. That is the first lesson i want to leave you with. Only you define who you are. Only you. Are hard should be helping. Not just a falling in love, but to the world. We need to look. We need to care and we need to contribute. Dont let anyone ever tell you that your dreams are silly. If you have to look back on your life, regret the things that you did and not what you didnt do. Nothing stays still. Things will change. The question for you is whether and how you will participate in the process of creative change. Live coverage continues now conversation on finding solutions to global poverty. Who would hear from Barbara Pearce bush, ceo and cofounder of Global Health court, transportation secretary elaine chao and chelsea clinton. All to get underway at 1 00 p. M. Eastern. Should start in a moment here. Live coverage on cspan2. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] ladies and gentlemen, please be seated. Our program will begin momentarily
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