Minutes im the senior or for congressional affairs. The great economic institute. I would like to thank you all for coming. As you know this past fall south korea went through a process that led to earlier this morning which then resulted in a president ial election in south korea. Unlike others he has no transition period accept he assumes office in south korea. Ye are fortunate to talk about how this will impact the u. S. And korean relations, economic relations between the two countries as well and a series of other important issues and we are fortunate to have three very good experts and individuals as well as the financial times. We also have a bruise from the heritage foundation. Thank you very much. I also want to thank the panel for giving their invaluable time to come here and talk about south korea. My first question to what does that say about the political and social trends . The major factor that end up shaping this was the impeachment and public frustration and the corruption that they saw. It is a symptom of an underlying problem related to that delete relations in a society that has become i think a flashpoint within the society and force the pace along with other leaders os his party. As a result, it went up by 15 points even before it started and then he has an agenda for promoting transparency and i guess the succinct way to say it would be towards a more fair and equal Opportunity Society rather than one that feels like you have to be able to get ahead or stay ahead of. Would you agree . It is better to read this message. I think the biggest defector is for a the party that has a strong commitment and he truly values trust. He wasnt a politician originally but he had been a human rights lawyer and legal activist for more than 30 years. Then he started his career as as politician and hes also been offered but had a decline because he is a human rights lawyer. He was offered the trip under the one condition. He left the house after a the treaty and it made him back. He is a kind of people person and maintained an open mind and kept a longstanding friendship in the political field and was pressed. What do you think is the reason why . I was on a Panel Discussion after, and i had put a lot of information into identifying the precept is. I was determined not to end alll of my talking points were valid. I was determined not to goi wase through that. First things first someone had an election appearance fee and we will go from there. I think as others point out, there is a political potential y and after ten years in the conservative rule is to be expected pendulum would go the other way. After after why dont you want o throw them out and then you will get frustrated with them. So in a way they already had an advantage in certainly with the impeachment it splattered them into could be difficult to overcome so they ar are the progressives to lose and now it appeared at least there might be an upset but again it maintains the base of 40 or so it was almost a foregone conclusion. Now he tried to appeal to more of the base and didnt seem to be able to go abou above that nr he had consistently. He tried with some National Security issues and we will see whether he stays there. It will impact the economy. They fixate on the alliance and the creation and relationship with china and others there is a very full record of statements but do you think that he will implement those . Nt certainly he has indicated a as one that really wants to pursue every possible option by which to address the issue. It will work in terms of the prospect. The other distinctive element or priority is to see north korea as a market and that is an area noat there is a potential forr contradiction between the pressure in the United States and a possible emphasis on Economic Engagement with north korea. But these are issues that are going to have to be discussed between the leaders of and there is probably a way of sequencing a lot of the elements of this strategy together with the approach that synthesizing. I dont think we should automatically presume is a seems to be on a collision course because the fact of the matter is this is in the context of online games as a family matter and within the families you have to work through these issues in order to move forward so as long as both respect the fact. What do you expect in terms of the north korean publishinghn wax what do you expect in terms of the north korean policy what do you think that he will do first of all for strengthening is one of the major priorities [inaudible] said you dont see any clash between the consensus view. It depends on how he implements just the same withon president trump. They appeared open to the interpretation on any number of things. So on the online he wants to strengthen the alliance also says things like they like to negotiate with not only the United States but china and the country has been putting forth disingenuous claims and also wants the transfer to happens d quickly. When it was done i caused a great deal of angst. Also, he wants to increase the independence defense capabilities, so continuing to have the independent Defense System not integrated into more. Just from their they want to strengthen the alliance. They have the beaten path of the military structure and then the same with north korea while maintaining a strong relationship in the United States. He brings a lot of baggage to the table so you could see it as turbulence in the relationship. What do you think about him reopening the cases on the Industrial Complex do you think that he would go ahead with something . Security she would have to work in conjunction with the un and the committee for prior approval of Economic Engagement in korea and also the transparency measures and resolutions, so it would be a very troublesome move forward if he does it without conjunction not only with the u. S. You indicated you are a bit more optimistic about the relations between the u. S. And washington. Do you think that some of the constraining factor factors in f the policy is that they cant afford to antagonize washington and at the same time cant afford to antagonize the affordvative opposition in the assembly since the party has lapsed the majority of the [inaudible] the administration will appearaa he out the policy and here we see this Party Platform if we think about what the situation was 15 years ago between george w. Bush there were tensions between managed and we got through it and we will probably see something very similar. We have somebody that had some experience 15 years ago we were dealing with a bunch of people that came in and i think that in the first 24 hours, some of that experience is showing. I think that he did a very good job with his inauguration and apparently there was just a phone call this morning between trump and moon. Is there a general consensust now. As scott pointed out, theres a lot of concern or question. S i think given the fact that he was chief of staff and there were tensions in the relationship during the presidency if they talk about maximum pressure and engagement in certain condition. Its very quick although hes also cited the conditions permit theres a potential for the divergence. I would give great kudos to them and in a way they stood up against the Political Base to move forward on a critically important and truly beneficial Free Trade Agreement between the countries. Maybe we should have a National Vote on this because im not so sure about that and even publicly superintending the forces to iraq. It was a quid pro quo. Olicy on date accessed the political environment in the peninsula for the appropriate timeframe of the appropriate intervention i think the. It is strengthened to the alliance. That is different between. I want to pick up the point that was raised a abou devout te u. S. And korea Free Trade Agreement. Where do you see that going and is that a potential flashpointps given the recent comments about renegotiating or even ending the treaty or do you think that he has raised that as a poignant reminder that he could give trouble on the trade issues. My understanding for the advisors is that they like the agreement because of course they were the ones that began the process of negotiating. Its whether or not we can manage them. Its outstanding related to the agreement, but i think that the bigger issue is. Its the merchandise trade balance and even within the u. S. It will take some effort efforto absorb that and try to find out how to. All the things that need to be tweaked as a mechanism for doing that and some things didnt work out as well as he wanted to. But similarly theyve been created since i was assigned so why dont we get the folks together to sort of update it and address the technologies that are new or outdated. T you can do that among trading partners. But if youre messaging is this is the worst ever, i want to blow it up and pull away from it, you are going into the negotiations perhaps you think with a greater leverage, but you just said that you really dont care about that agreement and you are willing to walk away from it so if it is just negotiating leverage it may be counterproductive and coming in with guns blazing and then even. Laying out a red line to walk away and then later to say we are not going to are just going to tweak it a little bit. Then you kind of get whiplash a little on the message. Similarly, with comments during the Campaign Last year, on the costsharing agreement we want a 100 reimbursement. That sort of makes and alliance a mercenary arrangement where it doesnt address this in the u. S National Interest interest to he alliances in the National Interest because he had the interest and its important to have been overseas as a table listing mechanism for not only the allies but for us so its not that we need a 100 reimbursement but a lot of it is serving. If you were advising president moon what would you do to support the American People . I would try to advise so many things especially the Trump Administration is very unfamiliar. I think the trade is very related with foreignpolicy. I must be differentiated and should take account not only assuring its own country but also the consideration for all allies. There is a way to force the relations by assuring the medical longterm economic growth. I think we have too many concerns about this kind of situation. Do you have any advice . They should be directed for comments but if i could address the political dimension of this because the critical issue we look back at who is going to be advising and essentially it is likely that he has people in his camp, some of whom are pro alliance and some are pro autonomy. This alliance versus autonomy is a major tension thats always been there as a part of the policy so what that tells us i think is that if the u. S. Can manage it well in order to ensure we dont get on the wrong side of this than many of these issues can be dealt with in a rather quiet way but where we make unilateral statements and i can think of a few examples that have an impact that will resonate politically, thats going to represent a setback in terms of being able to effectively manage the situation. D japane what do you expect the relations to go under and i also would like to hear your views. In the inauguration address indicated that his willingness to go to washington, beijing and tokyo in order to further the south korean security interests he has one major obstacle and that is they pledge to reverse the agreement. I think i want hinges on how the south korean foreignpolicy advisers in the newn administration decided to frame this issue. If trying to reopen means putting themselves back in the same box that they had been in at the beginning of the Current Administration where all other aspects of the relationship that we will see a stalemate relationship and its going to be on the foreignpolicy. But if they can find a way to kind of bifurcate these issues and continue to try to address the past while also moving forward, and offers an then than alternative pathway and we will just have to wait and see. Do you have any views about the relations particularly for japan and china . As an ally [inaudible] there is an issue about the territory that can only be resolved with the Solutions Based on the International Law and those that are acceptable and agreeable to the nation ands its people. The other administration didnt reach those problems so they continue to persist. The past administrations were in the global norm and its eventually worsened the sentiment among the Korean People so therefore i believe the commitment to be reexamin reexamined. What about in terms of china what do you think that will do given that he is under a real dilemma . He ihes moved to freely bein defense. He just kept saying the nextxt government should deal with that. Wow, you will be the next government. So he just sort of kept trying to do that. More recently, as i said when he was attacking the number of issues, i think that it was if north korea does its test its sort of a done deal, which why wouldnt it be after 544 or three and given the threat now that they have miniaturized and weaponize they almost certainly have the Nuclear Missiles today which could hit your country and whereas in the past they said the missiles donthat the missia military target they are just a Political Tool is like okay the only military target they haveth in south korea said they have hundreds that are aimed at south korea. I think at least in my view it is a question of the sovereignty and National Security and that if you are willing to negotiate that along with china than you are willing to negotiateto negot anything away. South korea and the u. S. Tried to offer technical briefings and theyve refused. They try to talk about it duriny a summit and he turned it down because they know its not only false but its disingenuous, so i think even the statements that he will negotiate with chinath a about it i think that raises some concerns. We agreed before it was agreed on the domestic issues in terms of domestic policy, hes proposed ways to restructure the big conglomerate. He wants to spend more public funds before the unemployment in that sector and to spend more o infrastructure in the economy. Given the fact that he only has a plurality now in the National Assembly, how effective do youy. Think or can he be in getting that legislation through parliament . He obviously needs cooperation. The other aspect in the Current Situation in south korea is when the administration came in, the National Assembly reached an agreement that nothing would move forward unless all the parties have a consensus or unless a single party can mobilize 60 . Theyve abandoned their nuclear option. But that means is that its a high bar to get things through its going to requiree cooperation. His party is a minority and even if you add a working coalition, it barely gets to that level so he has some challenges and the advantage is i think a lot of the elements in the platform agenda in terms of having job expansion to address high unemployment levels, the need for rolling out a stronger set of Public Services to support the elderly, the issue of tryins to rebalance and readdress, those are all things that have a relatively broad field and we have come to a point theres a recognition that there is a necessity to move forward. Do you think we would see some sights you can type of tradeoff softening the policy or what he wants to achieve forgetting the votes for corporate reform . Thats where you need to spend your Political Capital and we will see how it plays out. Do you think that he can achieve his legislative goals . Or what type of deals will he need to cut the conservative opposition packs i am a party member right noa and i was editor [inaudible] and most of all, they have a similar policy in the political and economic. [inaudible] they have the same power agenda to make another and reform the political system in the politics so i think they can make the same or similar policies. What do you think things are going to be the priorities . If you had to do the top three issues, where do you think that is going to go . He puts Security First and there is an awareness of the need to fulfill the political vacuum that existed that the driver will be getting the economy moving to try to address these two transparency and its mentioned independence for the prosecution ended directly flows from the circumstances around the impeachment process. Do you think security will wind up being the number one concern despite what he said in the campaign . Certainly he has a strongthih impetus to. So i think theres a sort of tsunami of intent to do things. Maybe its to see the conserv conservative party holding the reform hostage to the north korea policy. They had very strong support. Once the reform measures starter impacting the economy is and then the National Economy, then the people kind of flipflopped and its hurting the National Economy because it is such an impact. Its still 25 of the gdp if im right then at the time there iss a concern but its very slow would that cause people to go back against the reform, wee would have to see. Certainly north korea because it is the next step in thechnolo development of north koreaev doesnt stay quiet for very long so whether they dont do any moranymoremissile testing or exf any kind, i doubt that. If it is a case of a database and we need to increase pressure or sanctions or do this they would say we need to lower theeo tension and thats where you could have some convergence. After the Nuclear Tests we have this international consensus. It didnt happen after the first three so you now have not only the un sanctions. They wer