Officers. Theyll be offering remarks and laying a wreath at the police memorial. Well have live coverage starting here at is 11. And also the Senate Meeting at 3 00 today, working on Transportation Department nominationings. Live coverage here on cspan2. Thanks for everyone here who came on time, and i just want to give brief introduction. My names colin quinn, im the Deputy Director of communications here at csis. Thanks very much, colin. Normally when a president goes to israel, you have a very pleasant public profile, and usually an announcement of some new form of usaid or assistance to israel. The problem you have here is theres also a lot of underlying issues. And how many of these were actually either be dealt with publicly or during a president ial visit is pretty hard to estimate. Some of them are fairly obvious. There is the question of what will happen about moving the u. S. Embassy to jerusalem. There are all the issues relating to the settlements. Will the u. S. Take a stand on the two state solution . If so, what . What kind of sequel will follow the abbas visit, and how will he be discussing what is a very tense situation, at least at the underlying level, between israel and the palestinian authority, and what is happening at gaza. There is the problem for israel of what is happening in egypt, which is equally important to the United States. Its a problem of economics instability. Its also a tangible impact on war fighting in the sinai and the gaza where you have a lowlevel conflict, and one that is not getting better. Its getting worse. You have the problem of what happens, and it will happen fairly quickly, if you see mosul actually liberated and isis driven out of its pseudocapital in raqqa. Because for israel that may well mean that it faces a significant and very different extremist threat somewhere on its border area. There also is the fact that during all of these conflicts, hezbollah has steadily up its missile forces, effectively rearmed, gotten better capability, so you have a far larger hezbollah threat in lebanon than you had at the point where israel fought a war over the threat in that area. And then there is always the question of preserving israels edge. There already is a memorandum of understanding which seems to give israel what it would need for a security posture, but its always interesting to see what happens during a president ial visit. This audis i think are always going to be more problematic. We have come every time you visit to saudi arabia, we again discover where the major ally which has a very different political system and culture, and a very different approach to human rights. And i think here some issues are fairly obvious. One is that President Donald Trump, like president obama, raised the issue of burden sharing. The problem is its very difficult to see why. Saudi arabia is the fourth largest spender in terms of military efforts as a percentage of its economy of any country in the world. It actually is competing with russia in terms of total defense spending. In 2015 it was marginally higher than russia. This year it is marginally lower. It is spending more on defense than any european power. And we are attempting in nato to get countries to spend 2 , as most of you know, it comes generally closer to 1. 21. 6 of the gdp, and i believe that to my colleague. The fact is, however, the u. S. Depending on how you define it, where spending all of 2. 8, the summer around 3. 2 , which is less, basically a defensive effort than a third of the u. S. Effort in terms of defense spending. The other issue is how you compare it to local powers. It is about three times the highest estimate for Iranian Military spending, in terms of total spending, in 2015. Its true that saudi arabia has had this spending level, its very significantly between 201 20152016. 20152016. But its also important to note that saudi arabia is primary source of income, its oil export earnings, have dropped about 46 between 20122016. It is a country under very serious economic pressure, which is a reason for its 2030 plans in its efforts to speed up detailed shifts by 2020. We are talking about the gulf which is never been particularly oilrich, aside from qatar mac and the uae, when you look at per capita income. And from a saudi viewpoint, to make the kinds of reforms and shifts that needs to preserve stability, it faces some fairly serious questions about future financing, even if oil revenues should recover. So the question for the Trump Administration is going to be just how do you define burden sharing and why is saudi arabia not complying . It is likely that you will hear that there will be a major announcement on arms sales. Some people have floated figures of 100 billion. Ill give you all a caution, if you havent worked with these issues before, that first people always give you the figure which is the highest goal. Most of the time it isnt reached. The second issue is to what extent this is spread out over a future period of years, and the third is how does it affect saudi arabia is an daschle base and offense . Industrial base. One of the goals saudi arabia has announced is to stop spending on imports of finished goods, produce its own equipment. But from a practical viewpoint, and particularly from a u. S. Viewpoint, one of the critical shifts that is likely to come out of this announcement is that the u. S. Has long press saudi arabia to improve the quality of its naval forces in the gulf. To basically be more accountable is irans major areas of buildups, which are the missile threat it poses to the gulf region, and the next of naval missile and air forces, which it has deployed in the gulf and has said it wouldnt potentially use in a crisis to shut off the export of oil. There will be a very key issue in terms of reassuring this audis. Frankly, the saudi reaction toward the end of the Obama Administration was they were dealing with the u. S. Ally that they felt focused far more on trying to change saudi arabia internally than on providing credible guarantees of its security. So reestablishing confidence is going to be a security goal. It also, according to at least the number of people, will come at the potential expense on pressure on human rights. Type to that, however, is of other issues. Theres about 65,000 saudi students in the United States that are basically standard undergraduate students. If you look at all the people with some kind o of course or academic tie, some relation that are here, its possibly over 100,000. Some people put the figure at 125,000. That raises some very real questions about the immigration policies, the vetting policies that the Trump Administration is advocating. So far theres been no problem, but this audis may seek reassurance, and the Administration MaySay Something about it. There is an addition to iran the question of the human war, which is effectively become a stalemate. It is one where theres very little reporting and, quite frankly, where some of that reporting is extraordinarily questionable. Some of the worst data seem to be the data on casualties, because people are essentially often taking reports which seem to virtually take ngo estimates of their casualties as the total casualties. If you look at the u. N. Reporting on the war, its fairly obvious that the major sources of suffering and casualties are coming on the ground. They are mixed between the houthi and the saudi uae backed forces, and al qaeda in the arabian peninsula. And they are probably far higher than any of the casualty reports ive seen in the press because they deal with the real world impact of a war which has been economically devastating, put about half the population at risk, sharply embraced everything from infant mortality to malnutrition. And virtually led to a massive degree of unemployment. There will be the question of what happens in terms of syria and iraq. What of the key questions for the kingdom and indeed for the u. S. Is what happens in iraq after most is liberated, what will the u. S. Do their comment to what extent will it stay, what happens in terms of potential conflicts between arab and kurds, or sunni and shiite, what happens to the various militias, what is the role of iran . And how much of this is actually going to be addressed during a president ial visit is very hard to tell. These are the issues where staff usually prepare, and sometimes, staff finish the job and it gets very little public discussion. But they go a lot deeper than simply having a need in greek between the president and the royal family i meet and greet. Without that we shift things over to jeff spear thank you. Its a nice to see some a people here this morning. What i would propose to do is just sort of hop through the stops on the europe leg of the trip and well in a little detail on the agenda and a couple of areas. So the president will go to vatican city where he will have a meeting with pope francis. From there he will go to brussels and there are three things that will happen in brussels. There will be a meeting with the eu leadership in some form, probably a meeting with Eu Council President s donald tusk and European Commission president jeanclaude yunker. The exact format of that i thik elyse hasnt been publicly announced. There will be a bilateral meeting between the president and the newly elected french president emmanuel macron, and will be a a meeting of nato leaders pics of all the hype in brussels on the 25th of may and then the president goes from there to sicily where he will participate in the g7 summit. Now, this trip is the first real test of the administrations multilateral engagement on economic issues, on security and defense issues, on foreignpolicy issues. You have this happening in multiple places, the g7, data, European Union, and then this is all of course built up as well to the g20 summit which will happen in hamburg germany in july. Managing multilateral relationships is always a challenge, and making progress in multilateral format requires painstaking effort. From what i understand thus far, it is not planned to have the sorts of formal declarations and communiques at, for example, the nato leaders meeting that you often see. Also questioned whether there will be a formal declaration of the g7 leaders at the summit. On the one hand this owes to the fact that the administration is still quite new in office, and for any new administration is sometimes difficult to engage in, at a level of depth when youre still assembling a leadership team. But i think also its attributable to the fact that the ministerial level, cabinet level agreements allow the United States two in the way agree to certain, a certain continuity and u. S. Relations without having to put it in the words or of the president. So if you look, for example, at some of the agreements in the g7 form, ministerial declaration from a couple of weeks ago that supports the joint cover hence a plan of action, for example, the iran deal. Or in the Arctic Council ministerial, at least some reference to Climate Change. And so President Donald Trump is one of four new leaders in the g7 the host Prime Minister of italy, newly elected french president macron, uk Prime Minister theresa may. They will all be purchased waiting for the first time in a g7 summit, and there are three or maybe for members of that who will have elections soon. The uk on june eighth, france which parliamentary elections on june 11 and 18th in a to read format. Germany, september 24, and possibly italy having early elections but at the latest will have them next spring. And while this trip may not directly influence the outcomes of any of those elections, it perhaps brings to mind the saying when america sneezes, the world catches a cold. So when President Donald Trump shakes the foundation of the u. S. Led order, does the rest of the world feel an earthquake . If we look at the agenda for the stops in europe, theres a sort of incongruence and objectives. And managing this is the primary challenge of that, although stops there on the one hand for the United States the challenge is to show leadership, even if it largely has to work out what the policies are that once its allies and partners to follow. How do aunt of that european allies spent about 242 billion. The other big agenda on the item is terrorism. Nato has had programs for many years to try to fight terrorism. So this is not a new thing. I would remind afghanistan, the Afghanistan Mission if i think in its 14th year. Nato has trained iraqis a good forces come have at programs to fight or combat and share knowledge and technology among allies. This is not new but the challenge has always been how to make, how to use or adapt natos primarily military instruments to the fight against terrorism. And this is a big challenge. Some of things that are under consideration is whether nato will take a greater role against isis. Right now nato does not have a seat at the table even though all the nato Allies International capacities operatives pretty. Nato is lying awacs likes to help coordinate the interface management and intelligence gathering. Theres a possibly nato could do more and could step up. And it is a readiness from what i understand in the region for nato to take on that greater role. But its not yet agreed. Its still under discussion. Nato could do more in training iraqis a good forces and build up the programs that exist outside of baghdad as those in jordan as well as providing more support to partner countries like jordan and tunisian building up their capacities. Of course the last thing to about the nato meeting is i think that russia is going to be in a sense that thing on many allies mines, both in a military sense. Russias military modernization and inf treaty violations and its occupation of territory of countries in europe like ukraine and georgia remains in the eyes of many allies a principal threat that they face. And so how the alliance is able to respond is a key issue. The u. S. And nato allies have got a forward presence now in Eastern Europe, and there will be looking for the United States to reaffirm that commitment to the presence of its troops and its support for the policy. So i think i will play, that will be a major issue even if its not one of which the make any kind of declaration. With the eu we can enter more this in the q and a. This is the biggest relationship in the work of a transatlantic relationship between u. S. And the eu. It represents about 46 of global gdp. So clearly this relationship will be a key one, and administration has not yet articulate any kind of agenda for the relationship with the European Union. This is a big glaring hole in their policy toward major partners, and so this meeting may be an opportunity to start setting some direction on that. And then just to look at what some of the countries around the g7 table will have on their mind. In germany chancellor merkel, her party just one a major state election yesterday in 20 of germans population. She will be feeling more confident and looking more likely to remain in office after the elections this september. Emmanuel macron makes his first foreign visit as president today to berlin where they will talk about how they reconstitute, if they can, the Franco German engine in europe and what this means for european, the future of the European Union. Angela merkel of brexit on her mind as well. If we look at france, macro face of parliamentary elections next month, and that will determine whether hes able to capitalize on his landslide you might call it a landslide with an asterisk, that he won just a week ago. So will the other parliamentary majority or a workable coalition that will allow him to estimate the Economic Reforms and other reforms he has prioritized. Prime minister may face is a general election on june 8 and brexit of course is the principal issue going forward. And in italy, Prime Minister gentiloni will be the host of this g7 summit but maybe also the last one he host because italy is likely to have come will have elections before the spring of next year, and his party has reconfirmed as its leader the Prime Minister until recently. So when that an election happens there will be with wednesday as the principal candidate and the question there is whether early elections are on the agenda, and if so what that means for the prospect of the pd. That was a bit long, i apologize. I will stop and look forward to discussions. Plenty of time for questions about open that up now. Just one point of order if you could. State your name so you can make it easier to find yourself in the transcripts later on. George, national journal. If i can start with two questions. What are the other leaders looking for from President Donald Trump . What do they need to see . And secondly, weve all seen he has a tendency come his dealings with foreign leaders on the phone, and in meetings at the white house, to go off script and not do what the state department and aids wanted him to do. What are the risks for that kind of style in these kinds of meetings and summits . Let me begin with israel. I think that what israel does not want or particularly this Prime Minister doesnt want, is any issue or any attempt to force a clear statement on the two state solution. It will be interesting to see what position he takes on jerusalem, the normal pattern is to want to move the capital but not to insist on it and usually get a quick quid pro quo of some sort for not doing so. But above all i think what israel wants is to see that there is this commitment to preserving its edge insecurity, that they do have a strong ally that will not push them constantly on the Peace Process, that we will stay in the gulf and we will keep our forces in a