We are starting to see some success with the Iraqi Government in reducing payments to iraqi citizens who were living in isil controlled area. There is a downside to that. When they do that, that alley and eights them further from the Central Government in baghdad. To me, the important aspect here and the important theme would be to sustain the pressure. One of the sources that has been surprisingly consequential is blackmarket antiquity sales from the looting that has occurred. Its my understanding that the u. S. Has sanctions that it can impose on anyone who imports antiquities stolen by isis. It doesnt have separate abilities to sanction individuals who actually purchase looted syria and antiquities. Would it be helpful to authorize sanctions that are not just against the buyer or the seller, but against the middlemen who are involved . I would want to take that under advisement and consult with my colleagues at the department of treasury. I would tell you in the scheme of things, the sale of antiquities is not a big revenue generator. Its really kind of tapered off some. I would be for exploring whatever ways we can pressure isil financially, we should. Thank you both. I want to thank you both for your service. I want to thank you director clapper for your many decades of service to our country. We appreciate it. I wanted to follow up on your written statement where in it, and i think you reiterated it today, ron probably use the j cpa 02 remove sanctions while preserving some of its nuclear capabilities. In the second part you said as well is the option to eventually expand its nuclear infrastructure. Can you expand on that . As the period of the agreement plays out, i think we should expect that the iraqis will want to push the margins on our andy. They have are ready done work on centrifuge design. They have sustained the position theyve taken and this one man that makes a decision here is a Supreme Leader that theyre not going to pursue Nuclear Weapons. There are many other things they could do in a Nuclear Context that serves to enhance their technology and their expertise. Let me ask you, we saw iran actually have blissett Ballistic Missile tests post treaty and even after the sanctions cash release that they received one billions of dollars. We also know that recently north korea had a space launch developing their icbm program. I wanted to ask you first of all, do you, we know we know that in your statement you have mentioned historically there has been cooperation between north korea and iran on their Ballistic Missile program, can you tell us what that cooperation has been and can we expect that north korea will sell or Share Technology with tehran that could expedite iran supply of icbm missiles . I have to be mindful of the setting here. There has not been a great deal of interchange between a rock and iran or between north korea and iran on the subject of Nuclear Missile capabilities, but there has been in the past. We have been reasonably successful in detecting this. Hopefully we will have appropriate vigilance and be able to sustain that. North koreans, they are interested in cash. This is we now know iran has more cash, correct. They do now but as general stewart indicated, indicated, a lot of the cash, at least the initial amount is encumbered, iranians have a lot of obligations to fulfill economically. Let me follow up on the two, what what you make of the fact that the iranians did in fact violate the Un Resolution and make two launches of Ballistic Missiles . I think you were asked about the sanctions that were put in place. Lets be clear those were very tough. You think they will deter iran from continuing to develop its icbm program . The iranians have conducted over 140 some launches since the original resolution in 1929. About half of them were during during done during the negotiations. The missiles went part of the negotiation. As far as these two launches are concerned, i think this was a deliberate message of defiance and the iranians are going to continue with the program to develop their missile force. As you and i talked about in the past, just to be clear, we judge that tehran would choose Nuclear Missiles as their choice of Nuclear Weapon. That is obviously why you would build a Ballistic Missile if you choose to build a Nuclear Weapon. They have hundreds of them. They threaten the mid east and the two under development could potentially, given the technology, although the immediate one that is the most approximate that would be launched, is built by civilians and for space launch. I only have five seconds left but i wanna follow up on a question. I believe you said heroin is sentinel which is 30 to 50 times more powerful and its coming over our southern border. That has doubled by the mexican cartels going back to 2010. Do you believe that is something that, general kelly raised this when he was general, that Delivery System and those cartels could actually deliver almost anything with the sophisticated networks theyve established. Do believe we should be focused on more interdiction on the heroin problem . I do and the experience, or at least what ive observed and what general kelly has said consistently when he testified that it wasnt for lack of intelligence, it was lack of operational capacity to actually react and interdict. Im a big fan of the coast guard. The coast guard has done some great things. We have new capability against drug in addition purposes. Thank you. Thank you to the witnesses peered i have many questions to ask. I think what i will do is focus on one, im struggling with this and i would love to hear your thoughts about low oil prices. How do they affect our Security Posture . This is not a litany of gloom, its a good thing that has some elements that are challenging. I was in israel in april 2010, meeting with their president and i asked what would be the most important thing the u. S. Could do to enhance security in the region and he said when yourself off dependence of oil from the middle east. His basic logic was that we develop nine carbon alternatives or our own native Energy Sources in our demand from the middle east would drop and that would have an effect of reducing prices. A lot of the nations in the middle east, iran, ron, russia, venezuela, they have used heil high oil prices. Weve seen a Dramatic Development and weve seen oil prices go to dramatic lows and theyre not going to stay there forever. Many are predicting that they are going to stay significantly lower than historic lows. Its good for American Consumers and businesses. It poses challenges for some of our principal adversaries, russia for example, it puts it puts a cap on to some degree what iran would get from being back in a Global Economy and selling their oil. It poses some risks as well. Ive heard european counterparts say that theyre worried about an aggressive russia but theyre more worried about an economic basket case russia. From the intel side, when you look at intel and threats, talk a little bit about the prospects of low oil prices and any negatives associated with that, please. I think you have painted the picture pretty well. Its working, one could say to our advantage and russia. The current price of crude is 28 per barrel. Russias planning for their National Economies 50 barrel. They have been unable to invest in the arctic. It has had had profound impact and will for some time. Just structurally in russia. Venezuela is another case. Its a country that has been completely dependent for its revenue for a long time on oil revenue. Of course with a drop in oil it had a huge impact on their economy which is managed and laced with all kinds of subsidies. Now they are facing insolvency. So it has that affect and to the extent that we have become independent and not dependent on anyones oil, thats a good thing. Countries caught in the middle, its going to be a mixed bag as to how well they manage themselves and whether they are dependent on others for oils. If the price stays low, thats great. If its hiked by virtue of the Natural Forces or artificially, that could have a very deleterious impact on the economy in europe. Its a very mixed picture. Just a followup about russia in particular, it seems that they are more likely to engage in some adventurism outside their country when their internal politics and economy is in trouble. It seems like the guy when things are going bad at home he wants to divert attention. Whether its throwing and olympics are a world cup or invading another country, thats a move he will make when he has the satisfaction at home driven by economic challenges. Is there some degree to which these lower oil prices, they negatively affect the adversary but make them a little more unpredictable and dangerous. Thats true and of course all decisionmaking in russia is made by one person. The russians have a great capacity for enduring pain and suffering. The polls that are taken in russia still indicate very high levels of popularity, in the 80 range for Vladimir Putin. It is interesting that the speeches of late and domestically have taken a different turn or tone. They are much more exhorting, patriotic spirit in the great history of russia and i think thats a way of diverting attention from the poor Economic Performance of the russian economy. By any measure, you look at unemployment, inflation, the worth of the rule, its all at the alltime low. Investment, etc. , whatever measurement you want to use, its all not good for a russian perspective. Now the issue would be, how does that affect the street . At what point does the people start turning out and demonstrating . Thats what makes them very nervous if people get organized on a large scale throughout russia. Russians are very concerned about that. Thank you very much. Thank you mr. Chair. Ac] jr au mr. Chairman, dir. Clapper, in your statement you assess that foreign support will allow damascus to make gains in key areas this year. General store, you state that the asad regime is very unlikely to be defeated or collapsed in the near term and is poised to enter 2016 and a stronger military position against the opposition because of the increased support that they are receiving from around and hezbollah and russia. Given asads apparently improving fortunes that we are seeing, do you assess he will negotiate any kind of transition from power . He is certainly in a much stronger negotiating situation than he was six months ago. His forces, supported by russian air forces, supported by iranian and hezbollah forces are having some affect, but not decisive affect across the battlefield. Hes in a much stronger negotiating position and im more inclined to believe that he is a player on the stage longer term than he was six months to a year ago. Hes in a much better position. In general, how how would you define longer term . Yeah, thats, i think this one is interesting. I think the russians are very comfortable with the idea that if they have a regime that supports their interest, the shar asad might not be as important to them as it is to the iranians to maintain their relationship with syria and around lebanon. I think getting all the parties to agree on whether he should go, the timeline in which he should go, who might be a better alternative, because thats important to all of the parties, this is such a dynamic space. Then you see the turks i think longterm im not seeing any change in status for the next year or so. Beyond that, we will see how the fight on the battlefield unfolds. Before i turn to you, director clapper, general, when you mention about iran in moscow being able to Work Together on this and maybe, what i heard is maybe they are diversion in their support for asad in keeping him in power or giving him more leverage in a transition, do you believe that is going to come to had in the shortterm, longterm, and what are the consequences of that . I can remember it wasnt that long ago when we would all sit appearance a its not a . If asad is leaving, its when he is leaving, that obviously has changed. The russian reinforcement has change the calculus completely. The tactical relationship that iran and russia has today, i suspect at some point and its pretty hard to predict, will diverge because they wont share the stage. Iran wants to be the regional hegemon. If it has to compete with russia in the longer term and i cant put months or years on that, a suspect there interest will diverge because of competition as a regional power. In the near term though, their interest is simply to prop up the regime. That is not necessarily a sod, its the regime first of all that allows russia to maintain its interest and allows iran to control syria, greater syria and parts of lebanon. Those two things, when they become tension points where their interests or russia pushes for its removal, i suspect that it will have at least a tactical breakdown. However it still in a rons interest to maintain a relationship with russia because of what we talked about earlier and building secure weapons they would like to modernize all of their military forces and russia is an option for doing that. The relationship might be tense and it might break down at some point because of the desires for control, but they will still have the have the enduring relationship, weapons standpoint. Dir. Clapper, im out of time but if you had a little comment youd like to add, i apologize for apologize for giving you less time. Thats fine. The thing i find interesting is that both the russians in the iranians are becoming increasingly interested in using proxies, other than their own forces, to frighten syria. The russians and iranians are incurring casualties. To the extent that they can bring in others and of course in irans case, hezbollah, has below, i think russians are not wedded to asad personally, but they have the same challenges everyone else. If not asad, who . I dont know that they have come up with an alternative either. Thank thank you. Thank you mr. Chairman. Gentlemen, thank thank you for being with us this morning. I was discussing yesterday with one of our partners and overall longterm intelligence and worldwide threats, im afraid, and you touched on this mr. Clapper in your report, im afraid the syrian refugee crisis is a precursor of a larger refugee crisis that we could be facing over the next ten to 20 years. Based on the prediction of climate change, the band of the worlds that will be subject to drought, famine, crop loss, flooding in some areas, incredible heat in the band around north africa, Central Africa and southeast asia, we could see mass migrations that could really strain the western countries. Would you concur on that . I think youre quite right. I alluded to that briefly in my oral statement about the fact that we have some 60 Million People around the globe displaced in one way or another. If that increases its going to create, all of those people are going to want to go where things are better. Exactly. That would be the northern hemisphere. That is why that will place ever greater stresses on the remainder of the countries, whether here in the americas, africa, asia, wherever. The effects of climate change, of whether aberrations or how7cg i think the partnership that we can have with them is crucial to this. Do they want to stop this or they conflicted . Do they see this as a cash crop . I think it depends on who they is in mexico. I think the National Leadership would like to stop the flow. There are very powerful economic forces in mexico that are against that. We have a lot of money there. They also have a corruption problem to deal with. We need to be as aggressive as we can be in doing what we can, i mentioned earlier, earlier, for example, the tremendous capabilities when they are brought to bear. As we discussed early, general kelly has spoken about this many times about not so much a lack of intelligence, but the lack of Operational Capability to respond to interdict. We have the capability and that capacity, but it needs to be matched by resource commitment. We need a greater commitment. Exactly. With just a few minutes left and perhaps you can take this for the record, we always talk about cyber threat. We have done some actions here. We finally got through a bill about information sharing but im still concerned about infrastructure. Can you give us some thoughts about what further we should be doing here in congress are in the country in terms of critical infrastructure. That is one of our areas of greatest phone or ability. I share your concern and we will provide something for the record. Thank you. Inky mr. Chairman. Thank you both for many members of the committee who voted to give a ran tens of millions of dollars. I wish we wouldve heard more of those concerns during the debate and before the vote on it. Mr. Clapper, you testified last year in your 45 years of service this is the worst global threat environment you have seen. Is that correct . Yes sir and i had occasion to say it again in response to your question earlier. So that is the worst environment and 46 years . Its the worst array of challenges and threats that i can recall . Why is that . Frankly its somewhat of function of change in the bipolar system that did provide a certain stability in the world, the soviet union and its community, its alliance, and the west led by the United States. Virtually all other threats were subsumed in that basic bipolar context that went on for decades and was characterized by stability. When that ended, that set off a whole range, a group of forces or dynamics around the world that had changed. You both have long and deep experience in the middle east. In your experience, is the middle east a place for prizes and negotiation or strength and toughness . I would argue that in almost all these cases, its preferred over signs of weakness. Do you believe the reputation for power is an important part in International Affairs . Yes, senator. What you believe is art current reput