Less than 60 . And 60 to 90 . And that 90 and overt. Whether you cured by percentage weight or the annex of racial and ethnic fragmentation, weve got to middle segment that that is 50 , whose racial and ethnic identities are activated by racial context as well. So its not just in the south. Theyre sort of a continue on from the Southern States to the central midwestern states, like ohio, going to upper midwestern states like minnesota where it comes from, where my cousin, mary lu, vote solid democratic. Reese is not an issue at the click of a debt in vermont and maine. It is somewhat of an issue in ohio, central midwestern states and the further south you go, the more it becomes an issue both in the southwest and southeast. Thank you. I want to ask a question primarily for David Campbell and colleagues about, i think you were saying the two dimensional alignment that michael talked about was declining over time and attributing it to party queuing and opinion formation. You can see another areas, republicans like to talk about how democrats are defending things they work for. Is that what you are saying . Id like to ask to react to it. Are we getting back to onedimensional, political alignment, based on people lining up to what their party tells them . Thanks. Thanks for the question. We didnt try to map out the two dimensional view of politics like michael and michael did. We examined issues that really. I think more traditionalism of the social dimension and egalitarianism on the economic dimension compared to their work. We found both of them related to the increase in just the the opposite party. We cant really say. We basically treated ideology of this one dimension where we try to control daddies. We didnt do as there is a job and look at the twodimensional nature of policy preferences in that way. I think mike can add to this, too if he agrees. The way we look at it, when we examine party attitudes and feeling thermometers and other work done, its the people who look like theyre divided on one dimension who are having the greatest six engine and likes and dislikes. Those who behave like republican and democratic lawmakers who are divided along that dimension. The ones who are divided into smaller bars and art in our view with the how to answer that. Two comments. I dont find, at least when i look at the data that the two issues are strongly correlated. The caveats that dont ask the same questions every year, so you have to make some assumptions about comparability. I dont see a trend that are correlated. They started for an example graph that shows the people who care about who wins the presidency. We find that cant traded among liberals and conservatives. No change among the others. Same thing with respect to partisan identification. All those three groups are sort of in the middle over all an average. The liberals and conservatives polarize whether it identification, voting behavior to make up about 45, maybe 50 of the electorate are striving to change the offending others are caught in the middle. So, ive seen evidence that theyre more correlated. Opinions on abortion, which is consistent over time. The correlation between 19 ideological identification or between that and Economic Issues asked over time. Its definitely becoming more correlated. Still, the correlations are modest compared with the correlations among Economic Issues. But increasingly correlated with partisanship. So partisanship is increasingly correlated with both Economic Issues and cultural issues. As far as the people and diagonal boxes, the other thing about them is that they are less involved in politics altogether. But more consistent you are in your opinion overall, both within domain and across domains, the more involved the wire. The more interest if you are in the more you vote. So part of whats going on is we dont know whether their ball because they dont like what the parties are offering or the less interested and all because theyre people who dont care about politics and they are not picking up on the queues and they are not as aware of what the party stand for in these issues go together now. So i think the people involved in politics and more aware on this coming of the more liberal on that as well. And they have more consistent opinions. Its a very strong relationship between Political Engagement and consistent if opinions across issues. I do have one response. In terms of participation, the populace, they are less active, but that is not sure if libertarian spirit its interesting to point out that ross perot did very well for a thirdparty candidate from that group. Quit nuke of the two as well as another person. If you look up to support the democrats have gotten over time, theyre getting a significant amount of support compared to moderate. Theyre actually getting more than they are from populist groups. I find that significant. May just add one thing. They have become more correlated over time partisanship and ideology. We measured different ways. The single left right dimension is offering more purchase in explaining Public Opinion perhaps now than it used to. The correlation at heart and ship is it . It does two dimensions, the core values become more correlated. Thats what i dont necessarily see happening. Thank you. My name is bill being. This goes to you since were talking about Going Forward and the libertarians. You brought the word up a couple of times. The word libertarian up a couple times. You brought the word tea party a period which seems to be percolating, you probably know that governor key senate didnt and round with the Republican Legislature to impose medicaid. Obamacare, which is probably maybe the most disliked policy by the Tea Party People. They have said i dont know who they are, i dont know who the tea party is. When i meet the tea party i go to republican dinners. Theres never anybody behind them. I dont see an organization. What im interested in is the libertarians that the qualified candidate. The former Republican House member and the ohio house of representatives. It must have some kind of political skills. Cities going to run apparently. Republicans are trying to tax the law. Just today, yesterday, make it hard for third parties to get on. At any rate, i just was wondering about this because alan brought it out. Some of you referred to it differently. I think he is that as a philosophical group rather than a party group. Is that what youre using quiet people of conservative views on Economic Issues youre describing them as a philosophical group. With their preferences. If people had those years, what they migrate i was very dismissive of the libertarians in virginia. The mac im not sure t. Pretty libertarian now, but the tea party in ohio the problem i have, the tea party in ohio, trying to figure out who they are and who their leaders are. The most vocal once they get their name in the newspaper, which seems to be their hobby, they say they are not a keen to say. They are going to back the libertarian candidate because theyre not going to go through a dont want to go through to actually create a Tea Party Party. I have a hard time with students, explaining the Tea Party Party as it was an event. So thats an Interest Group is named after them. I was kind of curious and i think ill be curious, those of us who are ohio watchers and 14 come in the Gubernatorial Election because this is i think critical a critical part of this election, this libertarian and may be i dont know if i actually have a question you can help me and there. But they asked the guy, they said you might be electing a democrat. The libertarians that so what. So even if he was seen as a spoiler i guess im wondering i guess this goes more to you for all of you. Does libertarian actually draw a vote because its a label because it has a philosophical meaning that people who voted republican no longer see the Republicans Holding those to move to the other party and the idea that were going to get down to that last week in waste or vote. Is there Something Different going on here with the libertarians and the tea party . Im just wondering if you could enlighten us ohio people as to what we are going to begin for in this 2014 election because all the news people love it. And the democrat love it because this is certainly a way for him to fall. They are going to protect them. If you can do anything with that, id appreciate it. I guess in a word, maybe barely. The tea party is a more diffuse group then i think the news media give it credit for. A lot of times we think about their most prominent failures, Sharon Anglin nevada or Christina Donnellan delaware. May 2010 midterms they have some highprofile voters. Both running for the right in primaries and also winning general elections. Cheeky extent that the libertarian label is appealing to people, are evidence that for some people, but not nearly enough to win an election. So for true believing candidates and true believing voters, what do they care for republican or democrat wins . Its not what they want here for the small segment of people, they dont mind so much that they are spoiling the election for the group closer to their economic views. With respect to the tea party where bradley come i didnt get to show the table because they drove onto another beginning. Will it or ideological groups and their approval for the tea party. Even conservatives. Its not like this is a super popular group. Theres enough tea Party Lawmakers that can certainly play an Important Role in how governance occurs in the country. Thats all you got. Do we still have time quite one reason that john kasich opted for federal medicaid subsidy was that one third of our state budget cuts to medicaid expenses. The other aspect of your question is equally good. But as a libertarian . I think my son is a libertarian. Someone who wants Less Government on every issue domain. The four issue domain. [inaudible] no, no. Hes not that. Four issue domains in american politics through the social welfare issues in the foreignpolicy issues, civil rights issues and the cultural issues. I see libertarians as being different from tea partiers. They want Less Government im all for domains. They dont want government to intervene. Support for the Tea Party TeaParty Supporters are more conservative on Economic Issues. There are also more conservative funds social issues. I would suspect im not as well. Or her government interveners is so cultural issues to establish order while libertarians are concerned about that. They are concerned about liberty. And government intrusion means a loss of liberty. Social issue to mention an interesting right now. This is another area where republic are facing a growing challenge. The electorate is clearly trending in a liberal direction on social issues. Gay marriage being the obvious one. Also, for example, on the legalization of marijuana issue, theres a dramatic change im not as well. So its going to be interesting to watch the vote in the senate on the nondiscrimination bill and see what he got in the house. It will pass on it and get a fair number of public and those in the senate, but i dont think its going anywhere in the house. I wasnt kidding in terms of a lot of the younger people [inaudible] young people in general tend to be more liberal, though. I was just making a point that batters and attract his part. It is part of it, for sure. Hi, casey weinstein, local citizen here. I have Read Congress is more ideological ideologically polarized in the electorate is. Have you seen that data at all . If so, why do you think that is . Visit the open primaries you talk about . Nobodys disputing that i dont think. As a base in the Political Science literature as congress is become more polarized. I think it clearly has. Theyre more polarized because you look at the way they are selected and what it takes to get to be a member of congress in the makeup of the districts and even state now. Theres been a big increase in the number of oneparty dominated districts and even the number of oneparty dominated states. When you get elected for one of those states or districts, you are not worrying about competition of the general election. Youre worried about the primary electorate. Primary electorate theyre much more polarized. Idea mike [inaudible] just a little teaser for this afternoon. We look at people who are subscribers to freedom works, which is the largest Tea Party Membership group at least. What we find if they went very heavily for romney. The more active they were for the tea party endorsed candidates, they went for romney. The dislike of the other party drives this a lot. I think you really dont be the dislike of obama, bright. You dont see this move away to a third party. A few people might say it here but i just dont see it. Here are in fact there was this talk about when the senator from a high of portman, on gay marriage, that Tea Party People were going to in a sense go again day. Look at the Tea Party Leaders in congress are due up in the most prominent leaders in the congress . People like Michele Bachmann and a jim demint who is not the heritage foundation. They are all social conservatives. They are anti. I dont see any evidence. Grandpa who flirts with libertarianism is a shall issue to the eric are produced. Hes not a libertarian. Pseudolibertarian. I was hoping i get a chance. University of akron and to two. This question is for adam alan, i am sorry. Basically you are talking about the 15 of the libertarian are the available voters. Theres like a 15 group better in the data. Theres 15 i were basically targetable that could move up or down. I was just in years lied. I dont think theres a 50 libertarian out there. You can pass this to someone else. Ill try to talk to you about it later. Im curious about the role of money. Weve had unprecedented money flooding into politics. Outside money. Does this talking about the future, does this make it impossible for intense polarization . It is coming mainly from the right. The money being spent overwhelmingly on negative ads. I saw a breakdown of positive versus negative that are taking. In 2012 it was overwhelmingly negative for the candidate as well as the tight groups. The outside groups were really negative. Thats just about all they do is attack ads. [inaudible] which subjected to this intent negative barrage. Wound up being a base election. I guess they cant let each other out. Theres just a month singing contest. Terry mcauliffe said twice as much money as kuchen only. The kootenai camp is now saying, well, if the republican donors had come through for us, we could have thrown more mud and may be taken won the race. Anybody . This goes back to the question earlier about polarization. Its not the outside money from these groups. It the candidates and how they have to raise money in small amounts and contributions. They go to individual citizen it liberals than conservatives and those who want to give and so it reinforced his the pattern. And i had one thing to back . On the big outside money, and dependent expenditure groups you have to look at the needs and wants of the donors. That is not something i know about. The countervailing cores that candidate are raising money in smaller amounts. Theres some evidence that your anger and throughout our more successful at motivating individuals to give money. There is no surprise like Michele Bachmann have been successful fundraisers in context for that reason. It is doing good money after bad. Its reinforcing everyones views. Its a big waste of money. Ultimately in the president ial race, they just cancel each other out. When you go spend how many millions of dollars i was wednesday. Both parties spend tens of millions of dollars saturating the airwaves. Theyre canceling each other out. It not doing any gain. Before we thank Linda Feldmann and the panel, i have a couple of announcements to make. One is that we will take a break here for a few minutes. Those of you who are signed up for lunch will have lunch next door right in the room through that wall. Only dont go through the wall. Go to the door through the other side. I was asked to remind you out there is goodness that are interested in the masters of applied Politics Program here. Theres some reserve table at the front where we can help provide you with some information about that. And finally, have you all may have noticed im in your tote bags, there are evaluation forms. I have been told to act you ought to fill out evaluation forms. At this point, please join me in thanking Linda Feldmann. [applause] charlie cook with the Cook Political Report gave his thoughts on the 2014 elections. He was a guest of american universitys Campaign Management and two. He told students about what he sees are the Republican Partys branding issues. Heres a look. First, lets talk about the republican brand image problems. It kind of got talked about a lot coming out of 2012. The republican parties. You could land mitt romney for his lost in his campaign. To be honest, that was a very winnable race, had it been run somewhat differently that the Obama Campaign was very, very Smart Campaign and made a lot of smart decisions. Notwithstanding that, when you sort of look at other races on the broader, you can see there is huge problems facing the Republican Party. Minority voters come when africanamericans make u