With such a situation we have now, i mean, i mean economic environment, thats already inevitable that there was collapse but with such a case we have no, it would add and speed up this process definitely. Why i see analyze this way. First, for the period of year and a half we dont have industrial output. Already more than six months we dont have gdp growth. Two months this year have forward shown gdp has declined. A quarter figure it was announced by the government just a little bit higher than zero but its already declined. And International Results of central bank like a lookalike huge, 477 billion, but, in fact, that is not enough for the whole country to live. All citizens russia right now live on imported products. 90 imported. 90 of medicine imported. And it would mean if the results are not enough, normal import would not be available for people. Moreover, russian stay there, not quite high because we managed to solve this problem with other countries in the past, but corporations already [inaudible] and may need. Thats approximate 300 alien of death of those corporations. And if the International Banks will not be so eager to make this rollover, not under the sanctions, under instruction, but under soft recommendation. So it will be much higher, much more expensive and not available for everyone. It means that immediately, just approach the west on Capital Markets would be necessary. And without the support of the United States the government and the government of the European Union, it would not be possible to obtain appropriate funds. As soon as russian government, mr. Putin feels this, there will be immediate change. Right now he is bluffing, thinking that you are not consistent enough and will not pursue this. He was shocked when he knew the European Union adopted those sanctions. He was actually assured that germany would never allow, german industry would never allow its government to adopt such sanctions. But he made a mistake. Solidarity shows that and appreciate it very much, shows that not everything in this world tradable, as most are put in things families. As mr. Putin things and police. Secondly, just to tackle the problems in russia. What my recommendations would be on ukraine, on ukraine first, the western community should ensure that may 25, announced elections, take place and run successfully, and the results credible, elections free and fair under supervision of a we see oeec making the reports and it will be visible for everyone that everything is all right. This is actually necessary for stabilization. Secondly, ukraine needs immediate refinance their debt. There are many other creditors. Of course, usually all assistance could be provided under special offices of the government, but one year, another package is possible to allow the government to stand up, to be strengthened and walk out of the set of reforms supported by the whole world. It is out to be necessary. And the third one, of course, help, moral help for ukraine government and ukrainian people and their fight for their sovereignty and their territorial integrity. Important point also on ukraine is just to help them to ease dependence on gas supplies from putins corporations. It means just trying to obtain gas supplies from european network. I think thats also very good. For russia, in terms of russia, selfdirection, that is absolutely weakening of cohesion by individual sanctions that will absolutely bring effect. Second, to create conditions for energy, to ease Energy Dependence of european countries. It means alternative sources of energy, and we know that leaders of European Union already give, so that was interpreted time they would have a build of supplies could take place and in this case that will be absolutely difficult for putins regime to stop production. There is no way to pump gas, and just you cannot stop exploration of natural gas, but you will continue to supply. Even if the gas is not paid as what happened now by ukraine. Its inevitable operation. And 30, of course, that is a support of russian ordinary people, just to continue to des to des issuing visas so they could travel and see how the United States and other western countries live, what is relationship between the state and ordinary people, and all these things just necessary to understand what universal values mean in practice. I think with these all three directions together, we can achieve real changes. Now just special moment, a special moment when the west consolidated and consistent measures possible, and i think necessary. Thank you very much. [applause] mr. Kasyanov, thank you very much for those remarks in helping to set the context, also in the region. I want to pick up a few comments that youve made and then turned to the audience to bring them into this conversation. First, could you offer for us your vision of what a healthy relationship, what the relationship to russia and ukraine should be . Even in her own debates in washington as there is consideration about what kind of response United States, the European Union she taken ukraine, there is a recognition that russia has a longstanding relationship with ukraine, cultural, historic, religious, economic. Describe the nature of what you think should be the relationship between moscow and kiev. First of all, i have stated this publicly and its absolutely the right way, that Foreign Policy for ukraine is number one. It is actually necessary. Friendly state, and the historical roots very close. Thats absolute natural. We had a quite good relations for long periods of time when i was in power. And at that time there was Prime Minister in the ukraine, and we achieved a lot. First of all we settled all the problems. That ukraine didnt pay for quite a bit of time, and just become instead of criticizing and trying, just no way and pay, just created a special program, a program of support, support entry. We reduced tariffs so that could make them to make money on russian markets, just to produce, sell more. And that was good. We have a number of enterprises in ukraine, ukrainian enterprises which produce things necessary for russia and integration that also comes from the soviet union time, but today it is true. Today, ukraine has problems, problems mostly in all sectors of industry. Heavy industry. They managed to modernize their enterprises, but still they are not quite consistent but open trade, markets, free markets with European Union i think thats also a great benefit. I also in that time, russia would lead i would see better integration, integration with the European Union. And ukraine could also join us. At the time, at the time we were an example, a good example for Democratic Development and market reforms. But now just of course nobody would like to follow russian example. To pick up on the issue, theres some debate in european capitals right now about the eus approach in the run up to the euro maidan summit. The Association Agreements. What was your take on ukraines process of negotiating association an agreement with the European Union, and hearing from moscow, concerns that would mean a weakening, a setting of the economic ties that are deep with russia . The problem is, the yanukovych have made the right thing just announcing one of the goals of the policy would be having an Association Agreement with the European Union. He even managed to ensure people supporting him in Eastern Ukraine that it was the right thing. Majority of population supported that. But then two weeks prior to signing this agreement, he started to study documents and understood from the documents and also signals from moscow from mr. Putin that this document would kill the whole economy. He started to say, i will not sign this. Its not the behavior of the leader of the state and a National Army when it just two years negotiations and then after that, initialize everything just to say i wouldnt sign it. Thats bad governing, bad ruling. Of course, maybe it could be better conditions agreed with better negotiation process, but still, at least the signing what we have now, Political Part of the agreement, which is necessary. Ukraine as a member of the european council, all those areas we established in those documents. Same in russia. Thats why its absolutely natural to do this way and to produce of those laws and to be an association and the political and civil life. Economic side, thats a little more difficult but they didnt even do this. And he understood that he was faced with a problem and he would lose his position. Like it happened much faster. Losing his position. Because losing legitimacy of other reasons. So let me pick back up where you begin your talk. You mentioned, you start with 2008 in georgia. Clearly the actions of the west, the United States and europe, failed to defer consideration of further actions in europe in 2008. What will deter president putin right now . What would you be recommending that washington and brussels consider undertaking . You talked about sanctions. But i be sufficient to deter an escalation of the and objective was in ukraine or moldova or elsewhere . The west should press right now just putin just to make a statement, to make a statement according to hold these armed groups just immediately hand over weapons, to implement geneva agreement. West should just have a list of individual sanctions. And if it doesnt go this way, then again, we be a feeling that its possible to perform this way. And then there could be further intervention, even in eastern, which always considered to be some kind of important point, important territory. Thats why just im emphasizing that today this very important point, just not too soft the position, but not too over press with the sectorial sanction, but to be consistent with the pressing, and the demanding implementing this agreement. Putin pretends he is nothing to do with all these publications, et cetera, et cetera, but everybody knows. There are a number of evidence that Russian Secret Service is working there. They just record and European Union already provided it. Thats the case. And putin didnt, i would say, come to in a harsh manner those socalled green men with the guns, thats not russians. He said yes, our special armed forces were standing just behind those defenders in crimea, in particular. I think this is absolutely clear, consistency, thats the only recipe. Let me turn to your situation in russia more directly. Obviously, weve been seeing reports of putins own popularity increasing in the wake of what happened in crimea. Consolidation of his authority at home and his popularity at home. How do you help this audience understand whats happening inside russia . The russian peoples reaction to rally around president putin in the midst of this crisis, and what does that mean for actors such as yourself and your ability to either gain traction in the public debate, or even to operate as a political opponent, as a political alternative . We just come as mission, we already named as traitors, a few of us who just allow ourselves just to describe our position. We dont have access of television but russia continues to be a television country. And people in the regions continue to believe something is on television, it is at least almost true. Thats why they are under intense propaganda and theyre absolutely have no, i would say, alternative source of information to of course in big cities people just have internet, 50 million users of internet. 50 million users. But only 10 of that use internet for source of information, not just for fun. I wouldnt say remote, even, just those 10 big cities, all of the People Living in section f. Invited. Theyre watching television and russian propaganda right now is very cynical, very sophisticated. Its not the stupid stuff like wasnt soviet union times. People really get at this. You mentioned also just internationally, internationally russian television, International Russian television creating friends in the western societies, providing [inaudible] and it works. Thats why people, people just fooled by intense propaganda. And, of course, as soon as putin fails with this operation in ukraine, same people would have an absolute alternative point of view on mr. Putin, and opposite, and his popularity will collap collapse. Let me ask you one more question and then turned to our audience here. Next week the Atlantic Council is celebrating the Vision Division of a European Union, and nato. As you well know, that vision of a europe whole and free was one that was intended to include russia as part of this community. As we grapple with what the future of our strategy with the future of our policy is, how do you reconcile the rhetoric and the old strategy of a europe whole and free that was inclusive, inclusive of russia, the situation today . Its really just great to reconcile that. Remember, coming back after this disaster here, 9 11, we knew how just relations were strengthened between our two countries. Just to president s, Prime Minister, vice Vice President , ministers were together discussing everything. At that time we provide immediately all these special way full of logistics on afghanistan. It was one of our giant operations. We didnt want just to come there because of our historical memory, but we provide immediately. It was absolutely a great development, and putin said that he didnt exclude in future russia joining nato. My statement was just i dreamed that russia would join nato because we have a common ground. But since that time a lot of changes took place and especially after socalled munich speech of mr. Putin, where he tried to explain rush is surrounded by enemies and we should consider mobilizing, inside the country, squeeze the whole political environment. He closed all parties and started to announce all ngos, human rights people as western spies, et cetera, et cetera. Since that time we have great change. What is your assessment of why that change took place . Might assessment is that mr. Putin pretended to be democratically devoted leader. And then, and then just decided [inaudible] grabbing just privately owned entity to his own friends. And then just trying to first to reconsider all privatization, redistribution properties, and, in fact, thats the main way just property, property, property. And flow of Foreign Exchange and flow of money which produced state corporations. And, of course, just political instruments are necessary. Today, maybe they are already going farther than that and mr. Putin believes that hes a leader of the world, and exist in russia forever. But i think they will demonstrate now and longterm weakness of his regime. He has tried to consider the people just with, i would say threat of external enemy. It means im coming back again like ive already said. Understand it now, and a solidarity manner, just stand up and stand by, just not allow continue would happen. I think the regime will collapse soon, and russia will pursue Foreign Policy based on russian internal policies, based on universal values. The same what you share here in this country and other countries, too. And with that well turn to her audience to take questions but if i may, let me take to in the first row. Then we will, over here. Please and the front will. Before our Television Audience if you could introduced herself and your affiliation. From csis. I wanted to ask Prime Minister about the role of sanctions, but sanctions beyond financial sanctions, in order to deal with the question of deterrence that was raised. Some have argued here in the United States that financial sanctions, although we have become very good at it, its a very potent instrument now, may not be as efficient as these have not been sufficient so far i may not be sufficient to deter putin. That we need to bring some of the more traditional instruments also to bear as part of a deterrence strategy, such as strengthening the defenses of ukraine, and maybe strengthening the potential of ukraine to make russian occupation, if you like, at Eastern Ukraine should adapt more difficult, and confront putin with the potential for protracted conflict that that may in addition to financial sanctions on him and his allies, may be necessary, leaving aside the u. S. Or nato should come to the defense of ukraine because ukraine is not a member of nato. But in the cold war we have states who are not members of the u. S. Alliance by the u. S. Has security relationships in order to harden themcome if you like, against potential aggression. I wonder how would you evaluate that kind of thought . First, i think just talking about financial and economical sanctions, however you call it. I think i wouldnt say they would be redacted. First of all, i dont want my country to be punished this way and people of russia. And secondly that will produce a reason for mr. Putin to intense propaganda inside the country and have mobilization further on, saying he just the west announced the cold war, the second cold war. We should forget about our disputes and just to protect our motherland. That will be just in a rush better propaganda, et cetera at center. But the sanctions against individuals i would even say, not even sanctions but limitation of daytoday privileges to go to United States and the countries of the European Union and of transactions in u. S. Dollars or just in europe. Thats privilege. They already understood this. Thats what im saying, i already feel effectiveness of this and we should continue this way. That will bring results. But again