The causes of ocean, this causes ocean waters to expand and in addition, mountain glaciers are rapidly retreating which adds water to the oceans. The Sleeping Giant however in the Sea Level Rise occasion has been ice in the main major ice sheets of greenland and ant antarctica. Both ice she is are losing mass. How quickly they melt over the coming decades will determine whether we have an additional one foot of Sea Level Rise or up to four feet and perhaps even more. Another major change in our climate brought by about humaninduced warm something the increase in heavy downpours. This is clearly an area in which recent observations have been born out, have borne out our previous projections. A warm atmosphere would hold more moisture. We measured that and indeed it is happening. We predicted increased in atmosphere of water vapor and more rain comes down in heavy events and now weve seen that happen. Some regions like the northeast and midwest have seen very large increases in the rainfalling in heaviest events. In the future even areas projected to see decreases in total amounts of annual rainfall are expected to see significant increases in proportion of that rain coming in very heavy events another thing weve seen is that the areas that have had big increases in precipitation have also had increases in flooding. River flood magnitudes over the last 90 years have decreased in the southeast and increased in the great plains, parts of the midwest, and from the northern appalachians into new england were seeing increased flooding. The map on the screen shows increasings trend in floods in green and decreasing trend in floods in brown. The magnitude of the floods is related to the size of the triangles. Of course Global Warming also means that our nation has gotten hotter on average, with some areas seeing bigger changes than others but it is not the average that we notice so much but rather the extremes. In recent decade we had fewer really cold days and more really hot ones. And that has had many important impacts. One of these impacts has been on the amount of energy we use for heating and cooling. First the good news, we needed less energy for heating but now for the bad news. Weve need ad lot more energy for cooling. Heating energy comes from natural gas, heating oil, wood, electricity, and other sources. But cooling is all electricity. That means that some of the big new peaks in demand for electricity for airconditioning in the future are going to present serious challenges for our electric utilities. The new information in the assessment advances our understanding of the challenges that Climate Change presents for the american people. The assessment provide americans with firm scientific, with a firm Scientific Foundation upon which to build wise responses for themselves, their communities, and the nation. Thank you. [applause] we will begin our first panel. John is going to introduce dr. Gary yo, who is the moderator of the panel from wesleyan university. He has been called away sooner than he thought. I would like to ask gary and the panel to join us up here on the podium. And we will begin with a short statements by each of the panelists and then we will take some questions from our stakeholders. So, gary, i will turn this over to you. Thank you, jerry. Thank you all for coming. Our first panel talks to specific findings in the Third NationalClimate Assessment and i think what you will take away from this is that confirms. And the specific conclusion of the ncadac and the Third NationalClimate Assessment, that indeed every american will find things that matter to him or her in this report. With that, i will ask each of the panelists to introduce him or herself and you have three minutes. Thank you, gary. Im professor at the university of illinois. I was involved in the assessment in a number of different ways including heading the chapter, coleading the chapter on the Climate Science, our changing climate. What im going to do is talk a little bit about that evidence for the climate thats changing. That the climate is changing and why we see human activities as being the primary cause of that change. First of all, there are many indicators that the climate is changing. Each of the last three decade has been successfully warmer in the earths surface than any preceding decade since 1850. Overall the world season increase about one 1 2 degrees fahrenheit increase since the late 1800s. The u. S. Has seen a similar temperature increase over this period. Most of this increase has occurred since 190. The most recent decade was the hottest on record both nationally and worldwide. 2012 was the hottest year on record in the continental United States. All u. S. Regions have experienced warming in recent decades. But the extent of warming has not been uniform. In general temperatures are rising more quickly in the north. Meanwhile average an all precipitation over the u. S. Also increased although there are important regional differences. Trends in some types of extreme weather have also increased. For long periods of High Temperatures increased at many locations. Heavy downpours are increasing nationally over the last three to five decades, especially northeast, midwest and great plains as jerry showed. Some regions like the southwest and southeast have seen increasing trend for droughts while others such as the northeast and midwest have seen an increasing trend in floods. Natural drivers of climate can not explain recent observed changes. They are not due to the sun. They are not caused by natural cycles. The majority of the warming global scale last 50 years can only be explained by effects of human influences burning of fossil fuels and deforesttation. This conclusion that the is based on multiple lines of evidence. Independent evidence. One is the fundamental understanding that the of how certain gases trap heat. How the climate system respond to increases in these gases and how other human and natural factors influence climate. Another reason is that comes from reconstructions of past climates, using evidence such as tree rings, ice cores and corals. These show that global surface temperatures over the past several decade are clearly unusual. What the last decade warmer than anytime in the last 1300 years and perhaps much longer. Another line of evidence cops from using models to simulate the climate of the past century. Natural factors like the sun and volcanic activity would have tended to slightly cool the earth in the last 50 years and other natural variations are too small to explain the amount of warming. Only when human influences are included do models reproduce warming observed over this time period. Thank you, gary and don. My name is tom carl. Im noaas National Climate i can data center and chair the interu. S. Agency research program. I will try to paint a picture of for you of expected changes in climate based on the present path of green house, global Greenhouse Gas emissions. Much of this information i will talk about, not all, but much is based on improved climate models, particular lay compared to previous assessments. Weve got more models with higher resolution, more physical processes represented. So let me just highlight a few aspects of future climate expected by end of this century. First, for temperature, it is going to be hotter. On average about eight degrees fahrenheit warmer. Compare that to the warmth of increasing warming temperatures weve seen on order of a degree and a 1 2 since the turn of the 20th century. Temperatures changes up to 15 degrees warmer in alaska. There will be fewer cold extremes and many more hot mention dreams. Hot extremes. There will be frost days with frost increasing between 30 to 70 days depending on location. For precipitation, the moist areas will get wetter on order of 10 to 30 . The arid areas will get drier, in the order of 10 to 20 . As a result, soil moisture will be rediced in much of the country particularly in the southwest and central u. S. Both due to less precipitation and hotter temperatures increasing evaporation rates. To go along with this a number of consecutive dry days are expected to increase while at the same time the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase across much of continental u. S. Up to four times more than what weve see at the present and as much as six times greater in alaska. The environment for severe thunderstorms is expected to become more favorable in the future. The most intense hurricanes are expected to become stronger and more frequent with rainfall rates increasing in the order of 20 near the center of the storms. For sea level, global Sea Level Rise is expected to increase in the order of one to four feet, with even greater rises where land is subsiding. For sea ice, summer sea ice is expect to disappear by 2050 of this century. The bottom line, the current path were on will result in a climate that is far different than anything that this nation has experienced. Thanks. Thanks, tom. My name is radially horton im happy to speak with you about the finding of northeast regions, one of eight regions covered by this report. In the northeast weve seen Sea Level Rise of about a foot on average in the past century. Weve also seen temperatures increase by almost two degrees fahrenheit over the past century. And these heavy downpours that wee heard about are now producing on order of 70 more rainfall than they were just half a century or so ago. These Climate Changes are already leading to impacts throughout the northeast and beyond when we think about the impacts of Sea Level Rise, the central part of that, Central Range of that projections that tom just mentioned, two to three feet, with more than triple the frequency of coastal flooding throughout the northeast and beyond, even if storms do not become any stronger. For someplaces like new york city, what had been a one in 100 year flood event becomes something that you expect during the lifetime of the typical mortgage. Even if storms do not become any stronger. Within the northeast, we have Critical Infrastructure right along our dense coastline. Everything from our iconic transportation networks, i95, and amtrak, Commuter Rail networks, the electric grid, substeakses right along the coast. Wastewater Treatment Plants along the coast. All increasingly vulnerable as sea levels rise of the this puts populations at risk. It jeopardizes commerce, human safety. As we heard, leads to expensive repairs as well. As we saw during Hurricane Sandy all of these Infrastructure Networks are connected. If one part of that system goes down, if we have electrical grid failures, it cascade into other systems. It is harder to pump water out of a subway station, for example, when the electric grid goes down. Of the another important risk to highlight is the danger associated with more frequent heat waves as temperatures rise. We know that the very young, the elderly, and some of our disadvantaged populations are most vulnerable. As temperatures rise, cities have unique vulnerabilities. Air quality is often poor when the temperatures are very high and greater risk of power going out as we see increasing demand for airconditioning. Not justice that will be vulnerable in the northeast to heat in the futures. As temperatures rise, some northerly areas in the past havent needed airconditioning as much will increasingly be relying on it. Quickly, intense precipitation events pose unique hazards for some inland and rural regions. If we look at some mountainous parts of the northeast, a lot of human populations, transportation, agriculture is concentrated in valleys. With more heavy rain events there is risk of more flooding. In general whether youre talking about city or rural areas, more combined sewer overflow events. More failure of sewer systems, Public Health hazard throughout the northeast and beyond. It is important to highlight we have opportunities. Northeast whether cities or states shown leadership thinking about these Climate Risks. Weve seen ambitious efforts to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions and weve seen steps to adapt to these Climate Changes as well. In general though, implementation is at early stages. But fortunately this report offers a range of strategies to help close those gaps. Thank you. Thank you, radley and everyone, and real pleasure and honor to be with you today and my colleagues near. Im kim nolton i was one of the authors on the human health chapter. When we talk about Public Health, Climate Change becomes very personal. We always thought of Climate Change that happens to someone else. Now we know it is happening to us right now. And theres a few ways that Climate Change is fueling some of the most important kinds of extreme weather events that avenue affect peoples health. My colleagues mentioned extreme rainfall events, the big deluges that send lots and lots of rain. In the northeast, where i live, where im from, there has been1 increase in the amount of rainfall that comes down in the most extreme rainfall events, in the last 50 years. That is already happening. The hospital where i was born in up state new york in binghamton, was flooded up to the first floor in 2006 by rising river waters after torrential rains. And those kind of rainfall events are projected to increase fivefold in the future with Climate Change, in our childrens lifetime. Radially mentioned heat waves, those are big concern and extreme heat also increases drought risks, wildfire risks. Those affect peoples health. Heat is not just an inconvenience, it can be lethal. It can send thousands of people to Emergency Rooms as it has done in the past. Another dimension of this, there are millions of people in our country who are more vulnerable to the effects of heat and other Climate Health effects. That include millions of people, age 65 and older and were all getting older, as nature has it. Our youngest americans, People Living in economic disadvantage, some communities of color, people who already have breathing, heart, lung problems. So people who are already struggling to stay healthy are going to find thats more of a struggle as Climate Change continues. An example, today is world asthma today day. There is 26 Million People in the United States have asthma. Part of our concerns that rising temperatures worsen air pollution. Air pollution from ground level smog to fine particles to pollen can trigger asthma attacks. Rising temperatures are also making the length of time that plants produce that pollen longer. Already since 1995 there has been a 2 to 3 week increase in the length of ragweed pollen production season in a swath of states in the central u. S. And canada. Now that matters to people who have asthma. But we have huge opportunities as my colleagues have said to make improvements that affect us all. And assessment report really focuses on those opportunities. An example, if we reduce the amount of fossil fuels we use to get energy, we stand to one, reduce air pollution, that we generate from that activity right now. Thats a win for health today. Two, we get a double benefit because we can reduce heattrapping Carbon Pollution emissions. That is a win for our kids for the future. And three, if we step away from every, taking every short trip to the school, to work, to business, in cars and substitute biking, walking paths, more transit, public transit, we get a chance for more physical activity. That is triple. We stand to establish all kind of wins for Public Health. Were really at this crossroads now in terms of using the assessment and body of science that weve collected, thanks to the work of many scientists to make informed decisions about where we go from here. And trying to create a future that really has a human face on it and that is healthier and more secure. So im really honored to be part of that conversation with my colleagues and with all of you. Thank you. Thank you. Im gene tokley, coauthor of the agriculture chapter. An overa offing theme of the agriculture chapter, that crop and an agriculture produce is in the u. S. Are facing increased challengeds from changes in climate. To put this into context, u. S. Agriculture is very diverse with most regions having crops and animals highly adapted to local climate conditions. Local temperature, rainfall and soils dictate where crops are grown and where. Likewise, Animal Agriculture is practiced where climate allows grazing opportunities, animal comfort and low disease potential. Specialization and intenseification that have increased productivity have also tightened the relationship between agriculture and climate. In the midwest where im from we have more rain coming in the first half of the year and less in the second half. We have a 40year trend of increased extreme rave events that are delaying or preventing and planting of soybeans and corn. There is also a rising concern about the increase in soil erosion, accompanying these extreme rain events. California producers are facing a different but analogous set of challenges, including drought and heat impacts on vegetable production. On the other hand, there has been a decline in the last 50 years in the number of chilling hours necessary for trees and fruit trees and grapes to maintain high production. Cherry trees, for instance, that require at least 900 chilling hours between growing season, no longer meet the minimum chilling