Of these have been licensed so far. Curious how did you treat that issue in Going Forward . In europe, we have today a significant amount opposite of poland, germany, france, u. K. But we cannot expect to in the next 10 years it will bring a major contribution to that supply. Having said that, if it starts to work very hard and if it gets rid of the dogmatic barriers we have in front of us, not to make use, it it may well help us at least two the european production and as such could he an important factor in improving the competitors of europe. This will not be enough to cause the gap between europe and the United States, but it can definitely be helpful in terms of narrowing the gap and also put forward the gas security of europe. Nuclear energy in china is definitely one of the most important push that china past and his Energy History when we look at our numbers. China is making a lot of efforts on efficiency, im renewables. But the Nuclear Numbers are very coming very impressive, which means half of the growth in the Global Nuclear capacity will come only from china. This reminds me that china between the mid1980s and 1990s in terms of time brought close to half a billion people people [inaudible] but there is a big collective action. At the same level, it will be very important for reducing the share of call in the chinese power. It will be very good for reducing co2 emissions and it will be an important Nuclear Power in terms of nuclear capacity, china will overtake the United States as number one Nuclear Power. So ss, i think the chinese emerges as a major Nuclear Power producer in redefining a Nuclear Landscape into the other countries do not change their policies. The other question what do we expect from the next opec meeting is a question that i will not be able to comment. But i can sell you the following. Shale oil from the United States, the dollar extremely important developments in the hydrocarbon sector come in revolution in nature and provide a lot of comfort for many people as such they are very coming very for change. However, i would highlight that we will forget that even these few success stories, we will still need middle east oil in the future. I think we should therefore view the current investment issues in middle east from that angle. The big numbers we are seeing today, also tomorrow and this is very important to put in a. Fmr is our impertinence give in the growing appetite of many emerging countries who cannot finance the Nuclear Power plants, but we need to see the visibility from one country to another. But a man so play an Important Role in the emerging countries for the finances limited, and the natural resources. Lets take a couple more questions. One marks ground. One deck they are, one over here. Yeah, nina pardoner, strategy international. Just reacting to something you just said, how do you square that will issue you with the degrees centigrade target . I dont see how you can square that all. Okay, question over here. [inaudible] because your microphone was anon, a question about gas prices in asia. How certain are you or confident are you that co2 is the most important how confident are you the other gaseous pollutants are contributing to Global Warming . As you describe, and they do emit more emissions this is true. If you put them if you put it in a context how much of an issue and that co2, the differences really, really very limited. I will tell you the numbers. An hour for, we expected it to increase about three per day. If you missed them this will come from average commercial oil somewhere else. The difference of additional co2 is equal to not even one day of emissions at china the entire year. Very small additional co2 emissions. Yes, there is an increase they are, but is very, very small. And if you want to see if playable for Energy Security or something else, then we have to find a way to combat the nations of carbon captures to efficiency and renewables to other technologies. I didnt say that it will not be a crisis, both should expect that it would be u. S. Prices everywhere. It is a downward pressure if it comes there, but we shouldnt also forget the building and therefore it is fixed income is 70. It will be very much fire for a wealthy have in the United States today. But the usps is definitely to provide some flexibility in the markets in asia. It would also bring downward drescher under the prices. Methane is another gas and there are many others. Coc talking about the energy sector. Co2 is one of the most important task is to be delivered in math and and is the reason more of the emissions coming from the united sector. By further methane, there are many that plot device have to reduce them and it is easier to fix to be honest with you through some technical regulatory measures. Okay. Well, i think weve come to the end of our time. I want to think fatih birol for being here. Now, given your description of retirement and the Power Generation site here, we know there is no risk of the retiring anytime soon. So we will hope to see you again here sometime soon in the very near future. Thank you for the exlover that you bring to the Broader Energy discussion. I want to thank andy hudson on our team for putting together his todays event. Please join me in thanking fatih. [applause] [inaudible conversations]. And will tend to volunteer when we know we need to. We tend to do that kind of thing. We tend to seth rogen take responsibility when times are hard. I will tell you right now i think this is that moment in america. We just look around and we instinctively know we have to change the concept of citizenship. If we go to many people in america we think of the vote and pay taxes, they did their job as a citizen. That is not what citizenship is. A citizen is no more than a covenant between the people who decide they to be a nation ship in the people who have the responsibility to win for each other. That is what citizens are. They are jointly bound to take care of each other. So the concept of citizenship instead of being small and being a sap either of entitlement or limited responsibilities really as expansive as what you are and what you are about and why you do or dont do what you do. I think citizenship in america has eroded for lots of reasons, but it has eroded to the point where we need to stop and look at the real problem. We can look at partisanship and politics. They can look at economic inequality. We can look at the polarization of different parts of our society. But if we really look at the problem and we want to fix that instead of going after each individual thing and if we want to take a big step, it is going to take a big idea. As much as we have accomplished in 36 years and i dont want to look back at that so much as to look forward to the next couple of months. In the next couple of months there is a couple things i would like to do. One is to get my Defense Authorization bill passed. This is an annual affair, a major effort involving large amounts of staff. I also finished up some work on the subcommittee on investigations, looking at some gimmicks, which are used to avoid taxes. Ive been a member of congress for 34 years. You finally get the period as i was a manager for a baseball or Football Team and i had 34 and one i would be in the hall of fame. And really it didnt bother me to get beat because i wasnt just that im going, but i had 18 cochairmen who were chairman of the 18 candidates in my district that were supporting me and wanted me to run. And i did. Brian Michael Jenkins says that the 11120 americans and 2000 europeans have tried to join fighting in the area. A panel of middle east experts look at middle east conflict, the isis threat to the u. S. A. By westerns are joining isis. [inaudible conversations] okay, good afternoon, everyone. Hope youre having a good day. I direct print center for middle east Public Policy or as they call it here, cnet. Our center focus on middle east from across the rand corporation. We focus on the pricing Socio Economic challenges facing the region. Today the region is at a critical juncture. The panel you are about to hear from are going to be discussing the really complex challenges that were facing in the region. But i wanted to note that our center here at rand, we also focus on longerterm solutions to some of the underlying issues generating so much of the violence today. That is why we focus on issues like education for syrian refugee children, which is one of the greatest displacement crises in the globe today. We focus on the critical question of youth unemployment in regions like the middle east. In our view, if we dont tackle these kinds of longterm challenges, we are going to continue to see the cycle of violence that generates threats rather than opportunities from this region. So it is my pleasure to introduce these distinguished panelists behind me and they are going to be expanding on some of these challenges, but i hope also finding opportunities as well. Well see. I cant really attest to their expertise and knowledge in contribution to land on a regular basis. I work with them all frequently. Maturin is Karen Elliott house, former publisher of the wall street journal, former Vice President at dow jones co. Come a recipient of the 1984 Pulitzer Prize in International Reporting further coverage on the middle east. And she is also the author of a very well noted book on saudi arabia, people pass religion, falklands and future, which i believe is outside the doors here. She currently serves as chair of the board of trustees. Next to karen and brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser and should the president of rand and who is considered to be the father of terrorism studies. All of these panels have a long record of publications, said they will promote books outside as well. Ambassador James Dobbins is a senior fellow and distinguished chair of diplomacy and security at the rand corporation. He most recently served as director of the Rand International security and Defense Policy Center. Last but not least, we have sat jones, who now direct International Security and Defense Policy Center at the rand corporation. He served as a representative to the commander u. S. Special Operations Command to the assistant secretary of defense for special operations. So please, lets all welcome them to the board. [applause] thank you, thalia. Excuse me. I feel like i am turning my back on all of you they are. We are in a time in my 30 years, 30 plus years at least of going to the middle east where i think there are more activations, chaos and depression than i can ever remember. We will try to focus on some opportunities. I hope my colleagues will have sown. It is really an honor to be to get to moderate this panel. I guess hrc here, but i would say this even if i werent because i am a consumer of their product. These are really three of the best experts in america on this topic. All of these divisions that are so actually listed in the little blurb on ms. Arab persian sunni shia arabisraeli autocratic dictators versus demand for liberalism or fundamentalism, one or both, are not new. I mean, arab persian is older than islam. Sunni shia is as old as the early days of his on. And even the jewish arab dispute is hardly news. So i would like to start by asking each of you to briefly say of days why is this set of what i would regard on some level as old issues such a toxic brew now. What has made a so divisive and toxic . All of the elements have been there. There is a fundamental change in what we are seeing now and on some of the structures that were established centuries ago and during the week of world war i are coming apart and these artificial borders dissolve as some of these governments as autocratic governments have been removed. But we are seeing particularly in iraq and syria is we are seeking in a sense this same veneer of control that existed having been whipped off and all the things, to say this again. So we are seeing our country. The thing that makes it so different for the United States is at one time these conflicts were seen for this country as distant conflicts. In the shadow of 9 11, they are somehow seen as having the ability to directly impact concerns about the fears that they might impact directly here in the United States has been certainly do as a justification. So things are coming apart. So it is not just fair. It affects us in a very, very direct way because there is no difference now between a frontline and a homefront. Well, first of all i say it is kind of important to put what is going on in the little bit of respect. Weve had a peoples continuously since the end of the second world war. In the 1950s, 60s and 70s, it was east asia in turmoil. Half a dozen was going on, 100,000 american soldiers killed in two of those words. You had much larger numbers of civilian casualties and refugees than anything in the middle east today. In the 1980s, it was mostly latin america and africa appeared again, more than 24 is going on. You had more casualties number of refugees than anything we are seeing today. Youve also had more terrorism. American planes are getting hijacked every few weeks for a while. Americans were the held hostage and murdered in the middle east. American soldiers were being killed in several countries. American ambassadors were being killed in several countries. In the 1990s, it became the violence. We violence. We have four Different International intervention is going on in the balkans in a 10 year period and the civil war in bosnia was just a contentious in amalia and syria today. So what is different is nowadays the middle east. Its not asia, not africa, latin america, all of those places are relatively quiet. It is now the middle east. That is one difference. A second difference is the middle east is that im usually homogeneous life. You have a single dominant at the city, almost all areas. You have a single dominant language that almost all speak arabic. You have a single dominate religion and they were all part of a single country less than 100 years ago. Instead of having half a dozen somewhat autonomous conflicts going on with a certain amount of contagion among them, you have what appears to be an upheaval and an entire civilization. The conflict is much more crossborder, much more intense. It has several conflicting strands, the one you mentioned and so, that is one thing that makes it different. The second thing is the immediacy and intensity and volume as the media content. So americans would be killed and as journal brutal as a fashion in the 1980s. One poor man in a wheelchair was pushed overboard when a whole entire ship was hijacked. But there were videos that day. And if there had been videos, there were only three tv channels and none of them would have broadcast it. So those pictures never wouldve thought now. No one wouldve seen it. If youre reading this story, it doesnt have quite the immediacy of seeing mr. Foley actually been beheaded in almost real time. So i think that also gives it a bit of immediacy. And of course 9 11 as a background also has indicated they is much more brio and apparently more threatening for americans, although i would argue levels of terrorism are not as bad as they were in the night in 80s and the dangers are necessarily greater than those we saw. I would like to have a discussion on the threat level as soon as that gets through. He will undoubtably correct me. [laughter] i would probably say two issues are of interest and may be new and one is. Brian alluded to earlier. We are seeing unprecedented levels of westerners travel to the middle east, particularly from europe to go fight in both syria and to a greater degree over the last several months in iraq. So there is a connection. When you add a dimension of social media, twitter, myspace, youtube, facebook, a connection that we can make two homes in the United States that have encouraged people from denver, from florida to go fight in this area. The case of abu saleh is a very interesting one. There is a kid north of miami radicalize is here in the United States in florida, goes over to fight with the al qaeda affiliate in syria, comes back to the United States for six months. No one in the u. S. Lawenforcement system realized that hed gone to fight with al qaeda affiliate. The decision to blow themselves up. Thankfully he does that thereve rather than here because he saves for six months, returns and himself up. That connection with the unprecedented numbers makes this a think different. The second issue bailey with the islamic status iraq and ill show more in the labonte, isis or isil, whatever acronym used, an interesting situation where nonstate actor has made a pretty serious did and take over pretty important part of one of the larger states in the middle east, rack. We have seen elements with hezbollah and lebanon in a major d. C. I think that is something we havent seen much of in the last couple of decades. So you put those two together and you get a very volatile situation with westerners coming to fight. Can you try to explain to all of us what makes the Islamic State or al qaeda, what makes a mental list of two philosophy appealing to Young Americans for young arabs . What is it that makes you want to be a jihadi quiet well, i will start. I am sure jim and brian i think its out there. I will make a page on your recent publication. Ryan has a pub