Ambassador James Dobbins is a senior fellow and distinguished chair of diplomacy and security at the rand corporation. He most recently served as director of the Rand International security and Defense Policy Center. Next, we have seth jones amount directs the National Security and Defense Policy Center at the rand corporation. He served as the representative to the commander of u. S. Special Operations Command to assistant secretary of defense for special operations. So please lets all welcome them. [applause] thank you, dalia. And excuse me, feel like im turning my back on all of you there. We are any time in my 30 years, 30 plus years at least of going to the middle east where i think there are more divisions, chaos and depression than i can ever remember. We will try, as dalia said, to focus on some opportunities. I hope my colleagues will have some. It is really an honor for me to get to moderate the panel because im yes, i trust year trusty her here but i would says even if i werent, because im a consumer of the product. These really are three of the best experts in america on this topic. All of these divisions that are so aptly listed in the little blurb on this arabic version, sunnishia, arabisraeli, autocratic dictator versus demand for liberalism or fundamentalism, one or both, are not new. I mean, arab persian is older than islam. Sunnishia is old as the early days of islam. And even the jewish arab dispute is hardly new. So i would like to start by asking each of you to briefly say of this, why is this set of what i would regard as set of old issues such a toxic rue now . Whats made it so divisive and toxic . All of the elements have been there. I think first of all, recent events really, there is a fundamental change in what we are seeing now in that some of the structures that were established a century ago during and in the wake of world war i are coming apart. As these artificial borders dissolve, as some of these governments, autocratic governments have been removed, what were seeing particularly in iraq and in the series is we are seeing in a sense the control being ripped off and to all of these have come up to the surface again. We are seeing all the conflict. The second thing thats so different for the United States is that at one time these conflicts were seen from this country as distant conflicts. In the shadow of 9 11, they are somehow seen as having the ability to directly impact us. In fact, concerns about fears that it might impact us directly here in the United States has been certainly viewed as a justification for a more active policy. Things are coming apart but its not just there. It affects us in a very, very direct way because theres a difference now between a frontline and the homefront. Jim. Speedwell, first of all i was its kind of important about whats going on in the middle east and little bit of perspective. We that regional upheavals of the sort pretty continuously since the end of the second world war. In the 1950s, 60s and 70s it was east asia that was in turmoil. He that hath a dozen wars going on, more than 100,000 american soldiers killed in two of those worse. You have much larger numbers of civilian casualties and refugees in anything we are seeing in the middle east today. In the 1980s it was mostly latin america and africa. Again you at more than 20 wars going on. Again you have more casualties and more refugees than anything we are seeing today. We also have more terrorism. American planes were getting hijacked every few weeks for a while and flown to cuba. Americans were being held hostage and murdered in the middle east. American soldiers were being killed in several countries. American ambassadors were being killed in several countries. In the 1990s it became the balkans and we for Different International military interventions went on in the balkans in the 10 year period. The civil war and boston was just as intense as the civil war in syria today. So whats different is now its the middle east but its not east asia, its not africa, america. All those places are relatively quiet. Its not the middle east. Thats one difference. A second difference is the middle east is an unusual homogeneous place to give a single, dominant ethnicity. They are all most all air. Of the single dominant leg you pashtun language. Yet the single every single dominant religion and all part of a single country, less than 100 years ago. Instead of having half a dozen somewhat autonomous conflicts going on with a certain amount of contagion among them, you have what appears to be an upheaval in an entire civilization. And the conflict is much more crossborder, much more intense. It has several conflicting strands, the ones you mentioned, and so thats one thing that makes a difference. Second thing is the immediacy and intensity and volume of the media content. So americans were being killed in as brutal a fashion as the journalists who were beheaded in the 1980s. One poor man in a wheelchair was pushed overboard. When a hold the entire ship was hijacked. But there were not videos. If there had been videos are only three tv channels and none of them would have broadcast it. Those pictures never wouldve gotten out. No one wouldve ever no one wouldve ever seen the. He read a news story, doesnt quite the same immediacy of seeing mr. Foley actually being beheaded and in almost realtime. I think that also gives it a bit of immediacy. And, of course, 9 11 as a background also as brian indicated makes it much more real. And apparently more threatening for americans although i would argue levels of terrorism are not as bad as they were in the 1980s. The dangers are not necessarily greater than those we saw in most disputed i would like to have a discussion on the threat level as soon as trying to get through. He will undoubtedly threaten us. [laughter] i would probably say to issues are of interest, and maybe new in one sense. One is, and brian alluded to it earlier, we are seeing unprecedented levels of westerners travel to the middle east, particularly from europe to go fight in both syria and to a greater degree over the last several months in iraq. There is a connection. When you add jims a dimension of social media, twitter, myspace, youtube, facebook, a connection that we can make it homes in the United States that have encouraged people from denver, from florida to go fight in this area. In the case of abu sal is a very interesting one. Theres a kid north of miami, radicalized here in the United States in florida, goes over to fight with alqaeda affiliates in syria, alnusra front. Comes back to the United States for six months. No one in the u. S. Law enforcement system realized that hed gone to fight with an alqaeda affiliate. Makes the decision to blow himself up. Thankfully does that theyre rather than h he because he stad for six months, returns in and blows himself up. That connection with the unprecedented numbers makes this i think given to the second issue really with the Islamic State of iraq in the levant, isil, whatever acronym you use, we have an interesting situation to a nonstate actor has made a pretty serious bid to takeover pretty important parts of one of the larger states in the middle east, iraq. Weve seen elements of this with hezbollah and lebanon but this is been a blitzkrieg strategy in a major middle east state. I think thats something we havent seen much of in the last couple of decades. So you put those two together and you have a very volatile situation with westerners coming to fight. Can you try to explain to all of us what makes the Islamic State, or alqaeda, what makes that fundamentalist jihadi philosophy appealing to Young Americans or young arabs . What is it that makes you want to be a jihadists . Ill start. Im sure jim and brian, and brian, i think its up there. I will make a pitch on a recentr recent publication but brian has a publication on america and other european find that it got over particularly to syria thats just out, which hits on some of these when jihadis come marching home. I like the title. I think you need some sheet music to that. [laughter] im sitting on a panel for the new fbi director with among others the former head of washington Bruce Klafter one of things we looked at going to the field offices is what has inspired people to go over. The are a couple of things, this really begs for a more analytical ranchstyle project. In the absence of that there are a couple things rand style. Up your to be motivating. One is taking territory appears to have inspired some individuals. The isis, the videos of what looks like success on the battlefield has drawn some individuals, particularly since june, to go fight with a group that appears to be winning. And the group, i was on cnn a couple of nights ago to comment on this video that came out, two or three days ago. Whats interesting is it was clips of people on fox, on cnn, on msnbc, americans, former generals, former Intelligence Officers, state Department Diplomats commenting that isis is gaining ground. They took those clips can use them in a propaganda video and pushed it out. They have been using our own words to make the case to her own population to its an interesting use of social media. That argument, the dominant argument appears to be one reason. Some of these people that got over to fight also have been clearly looking for something. They tend to come from, some of them come from broken households. Some impoverished, some have dropped out. I wouldnt call most of these individuals that have gone on particularly well educated. You can see that in the Leadership Structure but there are things that theyre being drawn to that bring them, that makes them want to be part of a group that appears to be important as well. I wouldnt point at least from the data ive looked at to anyone factor, but several of them happening over and in their own lives appear to be drawing them to go over. Its interesting it is so attractive. I was just in saudi arabia and advocacy and imam that i talk to over a half a dozen years. Is 18 year old son is begging to go to syria. And she told him no, you shouldnt go. Not that you cant go. Is that i dont want to be like an Arab Government dictating. So he encouraged them not to go because he said, you dont know enough about islam to do the proper thing in the circumstances youre going to be in, and to do the wrong thing is bad for your salvation, shall we say . Com and he says a lot of young men in his mosques are asking him, seeking his approval and encouragement to go. And and a religious lady i lived with her son has already gone, and shes happy about it. I mean, what is your sense of why it is attractive . And are the reasons the same for americans as for arab . No, i dont think so. When you look at the motives why people have either gone to previous jihadists fronts in afghanistan, in yemen and somalia or elsewhere, you get very diverse motives. Certainly if you talk to them or look, listen to what they say, expressions of faith are there. Certainly the absorb the ideology of alqaeda, that is an individual duty to take up arms struggle against the infidels of the west. Islam is under assault, thats an important ingredient. There are also other unspoken but these other motives that seth touched on. But their desire for adventure to do something meaningful, participate in an ethics struggle. Personal crisis is a big part of those, particularly from the United States going. Its a very individual decision. The young man from florida that seth spoke about, and one of his comments he basically said his life in florida soft. Thats a quote. That makes it harder to try to defuse if theres not its a difficult for us. First of all thats good news for the United States. There is no exodus of volunteers going off. The numbers are very, very small. Publicly identified since 9 11, we that approximate 120 americans that have gone or tried to go overseas to join jihadist fronts abroad. We know that there are somewhere around beyond that, somewhere around 100 or more than have gone to syria. But this is out of an american Muslim Population of approximately 3 million. And so were talking about a very tiny turnout, despite the efforts of alqaeda and isil through very slick internet campaigns and social media to attract these people. They are simply hang on. They are not selling a lot of cars. They just art. The decisions are very individual, not community, not community supported. Thats good news. Bad news is of those who ago, some will acquire competence as a result of their experience to they will be even more radicalized. Some clearly will be disillusioned and come back and maybe determined to continue their campaign. Can you, jim, talk about the issue you started to talk about of what is the threat of s. To the u. S. . Is it really a big threat . Isnt a longerterm threat, and immediate threat, a threat to the homeland or just a threat to our Close Friends in the middle east . No, i think its a threat to the United States ultimately come although its a threat to all the other things as well. What distinguishes isis from the other terrorist groups, including alqaeda, is that it claims to be and disintegrate is already a state. That is to say commit takes and holds territory. Something alqaeda has never tried to do. Now, if you talk about the building of terrorist groups to organize themselves to strike at great distance, they can organize themselves and operate in highly unfriendly environments with very effective governments like germany or canada or even the United States but they have a great deal of difficulty doing so and they limited capabilities as a result. They have a slightly easier time in states that may be unfair to them but also very incompetent. So yemen would be an example for pakistan where they may be under pressure but its not much because the states are incompetent. They can pose a greater threat to Long Distance targets. They have an even greater ability to operate in areas that have no government at all like somalia for much of the last 10 years. But the biggest threat is when operate in a state thats friendly to them, where they actually have the act of assistance of the local government. Thats only occurred once in modern history and that was in afghanistan before 2001. Thats where the threat, the planning of the operational control of 9 11 occurred. To see another state emerge in the middle east which becomes a launch platform for terrorists with larger aspirations religions to replicate what we have spent a decade preventing in afghanistan. And thus creates the possibility of threats of that dimension again. So i think denying isis and similar groupings the capacity to take and hold territory is important. But what is the goal right now . Is it or is it taking and holding more territory and knocking off the saudi regime . Yesterday they called on the saudis to overthrow the royal family and were coming to mecca. In their priority list, where do we rank the . I would say in answer to that question the groups name indicates its priorities are areas in the levant. They would tend to be areas from about iraq into syria, essential parts of lebanon and jordan, and israel and palestine. How well they would be received by even sunni groups there is an open question. Its at least a regional issue and i think the name action highlights the areas theyre most interested in. At the same time whats been interesting but with isis, im am just back from both the middle east and south asia, is theyve adopted a strategy recently that is more similar to what alqaeda has operated over the past 10 years in even outside of the areas that their primary operating in. They have reached out to jihadists groups and other places. Some of them, and through encouragement have pledged loyalty. We saw that within the last week, a jihadists group and assign it has been fight against the egyptians and israelis. Weve seen isis members in libya going around, got one group that has pledged loyalty. South asia, interesting in pakistan weve seen some support from groups like the Pakistan Taliban to isis. Support really means pledges of support rather than willingness to bring in fighters. So there is also a willingness to expand their networks in a broader area than just the one that theyre fighting. Just briefly, where does the u. S. Set . I think in general if you look at the loves of violence that are going on, they are primarily focusing on local regimes, the assad regime in syria and the iraqi regime. Thats where most of the energy is directed. It does appear to be an interest in inspiring others outside of those areas to conduct attacks, including in europe and potentially the u. S. But i would say the focus of the effort right now without doubt is their own region. The taliban and never had any intention of striking the United States to the taliban had no ambitions whatsoever but theyre willing to host groups that did and facilitate their operations but its hard to believe that isis wouldnt do the same thing, whatever its own intentions are if they were allowed to take and hold territory and set up a state. State. Can i follow through on that . Look, the idea of the Islamic State, not just how many square miles they hold on the ground, the idea of the Islamic State has excited islamists around the world. Its galvanized people around the world. And we are now in the process of an air campaign against it. Thats going to have consequences. And to the extent that we ultimately to the extent that we become an impediment to the achievement of their goals, or even the survival of that enterprise, is going to have an effect on their strategic calculations, both as an organization as well as individual jihadists who are there who may be scattered and motivated by ideas of vengeance, as well as other groups that are not there. So were going to be getting with this for a long time. Dealing with this for a long time. When the jihadis comeback year, they will mostly be arrested if we can identify them. That theres a bigger problem in europe and this is a