Capability. So i dont, i wouldnt regard any iran agreement on enrichment as a precedent although i do believe that if the p5plusone countries managed to achieve an agreement with iran this would improve prospects for a productive negotiation with the north. On the other hand fail lure to Reach Agreement between p5plusone and iran i think would further reduce the probability of effective negotiations with the dprk. But the subject of this of this panel is korea and major powers. Picking up on your cue, Ambassador Park, i will talk about north korea and major powers. Of the north korean relations with major powers clearly its relationship with china is the most important. China is the main supplier of food and fuel to north korea. It is its biggest trading partner and china has made a conscientious and persistent efforts to get north korea back on the path of denuclearization but china has been terribly frustrated in its dealings with north korea over recent years. It has been frustrated by, more than frustrated by the provocation, the deadly provocations by north korea against the rok. By north koreas continued nuclear and missile programs, and by its renunciation of its commitment to denuclearization in the september 2005, sixparty joint statement. Clearly there has been a cooling of relations between china and the dprk and i understand in our chinese colleagues can elaborate, that theres a fairly lively internal debate within china about whether the, whether the dprk is more of a Strategic Asset or more of a strategic liability to china. China has been prepared from time to time to apply pressure against north korea but its been reluctant, reluctant to use all the leverage available to it in order to press the North Koreans and i think the reason for that is is a fear that too much pressure could end up destablizing the regime in the north and lead to instability on the peninsula and in northeast asia. The North Koreans are now and have been for some time engaged in a very active, diplomatic outreach efforts, part of a kind of Charm Offensive by the pongyang regime. Its released the american detainees. It sent a highlevel delegation to meet with south korea in inchon at the time of the asia games. Chu visited european capitals. Highlevel delegation recently visited moscow and there have been bilateral discussions between north korea and japan on the abductee question although i dont expect anything useful to come out of that. What are the motivations for this diplomatic outreach activity by the north . I think one of the motivations is a desire at present to blunt pressures against the pyongyang regime on human rights front. The concern that the u. N. Security council might refer the north korean regime and its leadership to the International Criminal court. I think the outreach is designed to try to dissipate those pressures. I think the outreach is also designed to try to divide the major powers from each other and to try to get assistance for the north in pursuing its Economic Development objectives but to get that assistance without having to make compromises, sacrifices, in terms of its Nuclear Weapons program. I think it is very important for the major powers, for north koreas partners in the moribund sixparty process to remain united in continuing to make very clear to the north that it cant achieve two objectives simultaneously. The objectives of strengthening its economy and the objective of continuing to pursue its nuclear and missile ambitions. But in the meantime its clear that north Koreas Nuclear and missile programs are progressing. I agree with you, Ambassador Park, time is not on our side. The North Koreans have recently increased, i believe, i believe they increased the amount of plutonium they have available for Nuclear Weapons. They have doublinged size of their Enrichment Program and undoubtedly in my view are enriching uranium outside of yongbong and producing highly enriched uranium for Nuclear Weapons program. Continue to work on longrange missiles including icbm range missile that would eventually be capable of delivering a Nuclear Weapon to the United States. So i think it is very important that we act to stop this momentum in north korea keys destablizing nuclear and missile programs. The only way we stop that momentum by engaging with north korea but we cant engage or north koreas preferred terms. Its preferred terms is to have discussions among country that are armed with Nuclear Weapons designed perhaps to limit those capabilities. That can not possibly be the objective. The World Community can not accept north korea as a permanent Nuclear Weapons state. The purpose of any engagement with, with north korea, on the nuclear issue, is to recommit north korea to the goal of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and it is important that north korea take tangible steps of restraint to give credibility to that commitment. Now i dont think it is, i dont think it is realistic to expect north korea to take tangible steps of restraint before sixparty talks have commenced. They made it clear theyre not prepared to do that and i believe that to be the case. But i think we can engage in, when i say we, north koreas neighbors can engage them in, in informal, exploratory discussions to test whether the north would be willing to commit to certain steps once the sixparty talks have reconvened. Who should hold these exploratory, informnal discussions with the North Koreans . Okay. I think clearly the South Koreans should. Theyre an Interested Party and have, should have every right to explore bilaterally with the north but also the United States should. China has served as an intermediary between the u. S. And the north for quite some time but it is important for the u. S. To sit down directly facetoface with the north to, and in an unfiltered way, to get its points of view across. And after all, its the alleged u. S. Hostile policy against the north which is the primary north korean justification for its nuclear program. I believe the United States is prepared to engage the north in these informal explore story talks. Exploratory talks. Assistant secretary Danny Russell mentioned that the u. S. Is willing to have these talks. He also mentioned that the u. S. Should not be the exclusive interlocutor with the, with the north and i completely agree with that. Others have a stake and need to be processed in any process of denuclearization. But it is very important i think that the u. S. Do engage with the north. But i think so far so far it has been the north that is reluctant. Ambassador park, you talk about the strategic patience. If there was patience i think it has worn off a long time ago. The u. S. Has been ready to engage with the north but it has been the north of late that has been very reluctant to have this dialogue. I think it is very important for the major powers of the world and, including north koreas neighbors to make very clear to the north that unless it is prepared to engauge in these kinds of exploratory talks leading to a recommitment to denuclearization that it will only face additional pressure. Thank you. Thank you, bob. Next speaker on my list is professor jong minute. She is professor at peking university and he is also Editorial Board members the Foreign Policy on analysis and haig general diplomatic studies. Thank you for the introduction. So this is a very important talk. When i was asked to discuss the first idea came to my mind is a map. Look at map and look at korea. Korea was located in any other place in the world whether it is in europe or latin america or africa. Its a big power but unfortunately it was located in such a place surrounded by countries that, all powerful bigger than korea. So there is problem that korea has developed for relations with all big powers. And but, said that i think korea is also in very important position. If you look at that International Structure in east asia korea has always been the vital place. First time that structure changed asia was in 1894, 95 after chinajapanese war when china was defeated in the Korean Peninsula. And started japanese dominance of this area. The second time is Asian International relations change and after the Second World War when the cold war started. The cold war was frozen along the 38th parallel. I think developed asia in the Korean Peninsula will demonstrate where the International Relations will go. It is very, very meaningful in this regard. So all that offers very, very interesting views. I think discuss boeings of the positive and negative side of the relationship in that area. And mt. Lee discussed the complex relations in the area, remind me that you both talked about the relationship between china and south korea and. South korea and United States in both best of times ever. But if you look at chinas relationship with north korea and americas relationship with north korea it can be said the worst time ever. There is zero sum kind of relationship between south korea with other big powers and the north korea with other big powers. So im thinking what will south korea do to enable china and United States to now play the role that they are now playing in this area. So whether, what kind of preference will south korea like to proceed, to proceed . And another important representative in this area, feature of this relationship in this area is that we see south korea has developed a very, very substantial economic relationship with china and south korea is involved with china is more than south koreas treaty volume with trade volume with both the United States and japan but at the same time south korea has developed a very close, you know, military Alliance Relationship with the United States. This is about aiid. South korea is, for instance, tell me there are two reasons. One of the reasons that Ambassador Park has discussed. The other reason i think some friends tell me that americans tried to prevent south korea from participating in the aiid and neither example in this year at airshow, south korea was supposed to go to participate in the airshow but before the south korea participated, america said no, you can not go because you have high technologies with our fighters which might be learned by the chinese. That all shows that south korea is in a very difficult position. On one hand it is developing close economic relationship with china but on the other hand there is a big political barrier. That shows in east asia which is different from other countries, from other areas. For other areas economic integration leads to political integration. But in east asia, you see the political obstacle prevent economic integration. That is other way around. So very diffcult and very interesting phenomenon in that area. Last point i want to talk about is about the professor moons perspective, very new. Reminds me of Professor Research that talked about racial imbalance and impact on Foreign Countries on foreign and security policy. I also remind, do not have the time to elaborate, how those changes, demographic change will impact south korean Foreign Policy exactly because there might be a lot of work to do. But remind me of the situation in this area in south korea that is, in south korea as well as the asia at large there is a, International Relations in east asia are much more constrained, influenced by the domestic politics of the countries in those area more than International Balance of, change in balance of power. Because it is not within the topic you discussed. There is a nationalism. Riding nationalism in asia. Not about in south korea is stronger because of the heterogeneous demographic composition of south korea is even stronger. This is also showing in japan. That is another perspective to analyze the International Development in this area. I think there is very, very interesting topic and i think, i would love to read in your book once you finished. I think i will stop here, thank you. Thank you for your presentation. Very, very timely way. My loose speaker will be professor park hee. He is professor of International University and director of institute for japanese studies. He is one of the best reknowned japanese specialists in korea. I hope he will speak therefore on japan. No, i. I while never speak on behalf of japan. I will always speak on behalf of korea. But, during the break Ambassador Park gave me freedom of speech. I can tell whatever i want to and the professor saved japan for me for the reason he doesnt like abe. I will talk about first, i will give you me take on recent japanese relations and how it affects the major relations in northeast asia. It is certain that abe, abes election, general election was a victory for him. He, but i do not agree that the victory was a landslide victory for abe. He just barely maintained status quo. You shouldnt forget that voting rate was only 52 . It was 69 in 2009 and 59 in 2012. So the smaller number of votes went on the ballot, which means they are not enthusiastic about abe. And dont forget that lpe voters gave much more votes within the ruling coalition. So the, and that i checked it. The, the voting rate was 52 but the proportional representation votes only, it is 33 of the votes went to the went to the ldp. Which means about 17 of the entire electorate supported ldp. That means less than one out of five in japan. So i think abe should be careful about reading the election result. This is not a landslide victory for him. And even but it is for sure that divided opposition may be very, very opposition weak as time goes by. Only opposition that gain attracted a lot is the communist party, Japan Communist Party because people had no choice in the, in the third area. And i am a little bit relieved to look at Regional Election in that the party, the next generation, lost 17 seats. They have only two seats left. So this means that the rightwing element in Japanese Society is weakening. So that is good news. So after this, abes victory, he security more than 2 3 majority in the lower house. I think he is going, he will try his best to gain more than 2 3 majority in the upper house election in july 2016. I hope he can be much more cautious to achieve that goal but i dont know, his character is not that much cautious. So what, what does it mean for the asian power relations in this region . I think it is good for the United States first of all because abe will strongly push the collective selfdefense issue and abe will be much more forth coming in the issue related to ppp. So in terms much both the security and economy it is good for the United States. But i think the, you should be carefully watch, you should be watch carefully the fukushima relocation issue. It will be more of a hurdle because the in okinawa there are statistics, none of the ldp candidates were elected in okinawa. Which means the relocation will have the some hurdle there. And even though collective selfdefense issue will be pushed forward, yesterday, according to a news agency the opinion survey, 55 of the respondents are against the abes security policy. That means you should navigate through a resistant domestic public even though you won the election. As for the relationship between china and japan im not that much optimistic even though abe and president xi met and shook hands looking other direction which was very interesting shot but, i think strategic rivalry between japan and china will never come to an end and still lingering suspicion on both side especially about the territorial issues and these issues will continue and much more. China is ready and willing to play the history card much more actively than before as the anniversary. I think china is taking on history and more and more putting it on the table. This is a very convenient cause in northeast asia because if you play the history game nationally, korea and japan can hardly get together. China and korea get together much more. I think china knows exactly what it is doing. That is kind of a concern for me a little bit and so what then about the koreajapan relations . The abe victory is not good news for us, for korea but i dont think it is not bad news either but he will, we now know finally, when i told the policymakers that abe will be continue to be there until 2018 they were suspicious. Now everybody believes me will be there until september 2018. And we have to deal with him. But you have to, i have to be clear that korea, unlike the perception looking from our side, korea is willing and ready to talk to japan. And the at least from this september korea became much more flexible dealing with the japan issue. First of all we opened all the channels of communication except summit talks so last month i accompanied the speakers visit to