Evening is an authority in washington we should be in for a tightly and interesting discussion. Petraeus United States and iran. That is a Nonprofit Organization to facilitate purchase a patient as part of civic life and was telling me in the Washington Area this is the Third Largest area of the arabian americans. Although board there he left with his parents and grew up in sweden and arrived as an adult and iran has been a focus of his studies his ph. D. Thesis dealt with the arabia and israeli relations and his first book published day decade ago of a Treacherous Alliance them the second book examine those relations during the Obama Administration but now his latest work losing an enemy is the third part of a trilogy. Given the Nuclear Agreement but now who knows to see where that is going with those relations but again delving into the u. S. Soredium relationship how that was negotiated. So to have exceptional access consulted in briefed and also maintained frequent contact drawing on the other primary sources with these historic negotiations but this book is important not only is a detailed history and why diplomacy succeeded this time. And how that might serve as a model your national conflict. Enjoyed we to welcome our author. [applause] a tremendous pleasure to be backed this is my third book the previous books dealt with that other between the United States and iran but the previous books show how those diplomatic opportunities have systematically rejected cliche that situation and towards war. With a triumphant of diplomacy that shows what could be achieved so that leads to a situation but then Tv Reality Show that were back to where we were before but if we and the stand what went right into and that could be reversed and that may still exist and was advising the Obama Administration so they could better understand their perspective. To receive a of a briefing and then end up having a private to our conversation with the Prime Minister a couple later. So gave me the opportunity to the understand the motives and how they were hoping bass strategy could work out. And gave me an opportunity that i could tell this achievement actually came about. How this International Crisis of the brink of war was actually result without a single fire being shot. It is important to recognize that the consequences range and it was about the balance of power but so many of these problems are remaining in the least. So to go back in time april april 2012 of a small city in a european country with officials and former officials the Iranian Ambassador is. Including several u. S. Generals. And israelis at the time when they didnt even recognize their existence but it was david more unique from what was being said. This is never about the enrichment. The room was completely silent but for two decades the program constituted the existential threat. That no solution in could be found with that o in richmond objective. And actually did not have fitted the to do with israel beyond. And then to see a sweeping attitude change that iran was questioning the legitimacy that the United States would strike a deal with iran that it midways that would leave israel abandoned beyond hostility of its own. Israel could not allow the betting states without coming to terms and if they ever going to go with this direction israel could not accept this tuesday and in though way at the moment of tremendous honesty and to better understand why theyre making this argument we have to go back another two decades. The soviet union had collapsed and defeated in the persian gulf war this was a new geopolitical situation and that the global level rissole super power of the World Without previous balance of power had changed but it isnt quite clear. With iraq defeated now emerging as to of the most powerful centers of the region. Behindthescenes collaborating to enjoy that secret security relationship. But with these to do threats gone one of those most powerful states as potential threats and rifles. Because they already enjoy their relationship or the change of the geopolitical configuration they argue in order to make peace with the palestinians the United States needed to contain and isolate iran because it was a new threat to the rigid and israelis. So they obliged of the fuel containment. And essentially a new order based on the centrality of israel. So for the iranians so with the persian gulf war they were hoping and they would be rewarded coming out of the cold and then to double down and isolation to spread extremism and then the weakest link of the strategy to put the Peace Process if it was sabotaged the rest of the strategy would fall apart. So iran would make it as costly as possible for the United States to pursue that policy despite everything they did and by george w. Bush invading iraq to change that country and others in the region to establish order on new american regimes in the region. The invasion of fire rack did not build the new order. United states week itself to the point it no longer have the capacity with the new equilibrium more balance of power. So much of the fighting taking place right now is driven by the fact we have so many vacuums in the region and those that are vying for influence as much as defensively that no one that power to be tilted against them. This was a collapse. To have maximum ability and then to defeat is a dog. Into the main at rivals that the tide. And uphold that policy as long as United States continues of those negotiations they could not lock in this new geopolitical circumstance. And then to enable that negotiation and then to come to terms. But then to see that recognition. So ironically they use those same instruments to achieve their objectives which was the Iranian Nuclear program. This was used to make unrealistic demands that the enrichment had to be completely ended that no compromise could be reached at all. What was defined as that existential threat toward taking military action and the balance of power that would follow is one favorable. They added different calculation with the same instrument precisely because it failed in iraq and so tired of warfare they could come to the table to find a common ground. So how to prevent iran from getting the Nuclear Weapon capability without allowing the israelis to take military action and then to define the new balance of power and then to pursue a sanctions it was an utter failure. So by the time they left office 1200500 of low enriched uranium enough to build a Nuclear Weapon. Then senator barack obama would reinstate diplomacy but to negotiate with iran was that platform but once he became president he realized quickly how difficult this could be. Mainly because of problems but then quickly and to get in a situation that was stuck with those very same instruments sanctions and sabotage and cyberwarfare. Precisely because he enjoyed International Legitimacy obama succeeded with the most striking hard hitting sanctions even the Iranian Central Bank with access to the International Financial system. Then they exported from the European Union at the time for pro. And then to shot 25 percent. But how long could it truly sustained . But they never thought to go along with sanctions in this manner. And without a response. And with bushs refusal to double down to build more centrifuge. So what came out of this but they wed because the benefits to change make their realized it is too painful to go forward and the recalculation was i spent a a program as much as possible the policy would be too costly for United States with a strategy to break the mentality to show that pressure doesnt work. And then to show a pressure would produce the end result was the United States come closer and closer to collapse in the economy. And then to have a Nuclear Weapon. The american side was so worried that they would take their freedom of launching a surprise attack. That pentagon officials insisted the cycle has to be included. Because they would need a specific window. As the official negotiations were reading president obama to read the to the rand Supreme Leader. And then to assess that are they willing to yield with the sanctions . The chairman of a foreign setting Relations Committee john kerry an opportunity existed so senator kerry played an instrumental role to be wrongfully jailed and they have proven their ability it actually directly access the Supreme Leader. So for the first time a small delegation travel to those at the time that were midlevel one was the Deputy Foreign minister and he never entered the room but instead conducted negotiations but by a all accounts it was bad. And had day succeeded to see how close that they were there not to capitulate to see how close the United States was so for a the full day of how the u. S. Could come to terms and then even to discuss the issue. And then to have those u. S. Elections but then by january 2013 in a sense of urgency then secretary of defense panetta stated publicly the breakout time atonements making a decision to build the bomb but one year later the tonnage from between eight and 12 weeks. And then to amass more geranium. Uranium. But if nothing changed would soon be in a situation to except or acquiesce or go to war. But time was on their side. But in a much more senior delegation and then directly engaged in the United States. In the p5 1 meeting because they wrap those negotiations they insisted as the other delegations entered the room and then their roots become in the was the competition different speeches in leave the room entirely. That there are no chitchats on the sidelines or no coffee breaks. Taking walks together but the most important thing was that this time around the u. S. Negotiators for armed with the opportunity than very careful terms that United States could except significant restrictions the this is what they had waited for. It was a problem because of the mistrust and then promise they would be willing to except that. And to have absolutely no authority because if they put this in and write glading riding that would be significant with the p5 1. That was creating a problem getting much closer to each other. And that trust gap between the two sides. But instead of the United States sending a letter and then except in richmond. And then the Supreme Leader iran. And then travel to iraq in between his chemotherapy and then not show with a letter the context or the contents of the letter. And then no longer rejecting but insulting but precisely this is what caused the of break through to happen and now you hear about sectarian strife with actually an arab country then after this was settled because my douala this happened when ahmadinejad was still president three months later prix in a completely Different Team with many of the americans even though he had no idea that issue had been resolved by November November 2013 the deal is struck. This was so critical for the United States because it refers to the dynamics prime United States keeping the previous sanctions more or less even neutralized after excruciating negotiations they finally had a deal that show diplomacy had prevailed that war with iran was prevented so drably these talks the biggest declared enemy of the negotiation was the Prime Minister and he did quite a lot because president obama had a habit to spy on foreign leaders and friends once that was revealed he stopped. But he did not stop trying. Because the israelis are still doing things to arm the negotiation and that they were leaking information about the negotiations to undermine the Nuclear Talks because by making the Iranian Nuclear issue he essentially eliminated the status quo option kicking the can down the road option forcing United States to take action instead tip his surprise trying to figure out how to take diplomatic action chances are there would not have taken this action but contain the issue and then forcing obama to choose between war and peace. If he thought about this a little bit harder something that he could have done. To say this is the worst deal ever of he needed to do was go to the microphone to say this is a fantastic deal. And it would have killed that opportunity. Nfl to shut off those hardliners. So for all the things they did in the plans that they had. So as you know, there was a better deal. But not in 2015. With a more realistic position but in 2003 to have that offer to the bush administration. And then to with the Nuclear Program and transparency with a whole set of other issues such as collaborating for girl but that swiss ambassador who cant deliver the proposal but then to call role at the white house he said he was intrigued to find that if it was authentic. That is the last weve heard of that proposal that there was an article in the Financial Times that said the u. S. Side of the administrations response was to the detriment to the swiss ambassador. In 2005 another opportunity the last offer was set to the europeans before ahmadinejad became president. They offered to cut their enrichment because they knew bush would reject anything. Somebody brought up that proposal. Who would jump on the proposal . But during the proposal in deciding how much they would keep but then he smiled and said 3,000 . We would settle for 1,000. Now was the result of this deal that they responded by building more center fears and have far more knowledge that is the alternative cost of pressure tactics and unrealistic objectives so i will said that is what this means with this deal could have gotten not just prevent war but paving the way for the regional dialogue sound of the ring the saudis said the iranians to figure out a way to create a new equilibrium to go to the negotiating table. But what happened when trump went with that all out isolation and then opens the door for more rivalry in the past decade. That he essentially existed and then the so welcomed by the saudis precisely because that would open the door for a potential path. And then it became quite clear it is isolated in the region and then if they said it wasnt that terribly indifferent either. What that interesting conversation wants to keep of west of the permanent status of fandom and then to negotiate. Clearly those to freer the enemy. As they intended it was not about enrichment. Thank you so much. [applause] i am afraid to take your questions. Please use the microphone. I have requested about 2013 getting concerned about iranian enrichment so with that desire to keep the talks on track to have an impact not to enforce the red line in syria . And that has been presented as an opening with iran and there were starting to show promise that obama himself had put up fearing it would impact and i found no evidence that is the reason why. But on the other hand, with this set strategy of obama to the middle east. When it has a strategic amount the first year to make the audit the conclusion was there over committed in the middle east and over committed in asia the worse thing that could happen was to be drug into another endless war in the United States. With the next decade or two because ultimately they will have to worry about this potential risk to challenge that global position there is no country in the middle east to have that capacity and one that does have that capacity not getting dragged into another war in syria and what that actual objectives and strategy would be. And why he did in force to read live but again no evidence that was the reason. Can you share with us some of your but its . Thoughts . With tomas that relationship has gone up and down quite a lot and then to a very bad relations and to meet with the foreign minister but but he is connected to the Muslim Brotherhood worthy opposition but that has never ben the relationship with hezbollah. And then goes back several decades with a complete the different strategic nature. That they would completely cut off to be far more instrumental here is the one important thing to understand. The objective of any final negotiations in the middle east they constantly try to find the non state actors in and of itself what you see right now without political environment that is greater threat than anything. Theyre just doing a better than everyone else. So they find the group and they find the and then they turn against the saudis. They had their relationships with those strategic relationships space should be able to use this. The demos went to war with each other at the taliban was aborted with the competition from iran. And it in 2001 they had defined as one of the main threats. But there are some science that is changing but i suspect that they put a tremendous amount of pressure on the Iraqi Government to have an agreement with United States. And below those forces to be in iraq. Because they do not want to see any troops there the borders. And as a result the and its states is there. But that is precisely