booktv. Including russias attack on a Nuclear Power plant in ukraine. This runs about an hour and 40 minutes. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] all right everybody as our special keynote speaker comes in, and i want to Welcome National security adviser to President BidenJake Sullivan and the Arms Control AssociationBoard Chairman tom countryman up to the stage. Tom will introduce jake, and we will have some time after the address for questions. Well start with reporters and then go to the audience. Tom will draw further instructions. Tom, over to you. Thank you, daryl. Welcome. We will be briefing the introduction because you didnt come to hear me. You came for the National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan. Let me just note that after his remarks we will take a couple of questions from the press pool here and then a couple of questions from the audience. If you would like to ask a question, jot it down on the pads by your chair and hold it up and our staff will collect it. What brings us together as an association is our belief that americas National Security, and global security, depend upon prudent restraint in Nuclear Policy, and upon active effort led by the United States to constantly reduce the risks of nuclear war, and to fulfill our legal obligation shared by other nations to negotiate in good faith the reduction and eventual elimination of Nuclear Weapons. To our meeting last year, President Biden wrote that perhaps more than any other time since the cold war we must work to reduce the risk of an arms race or nuclear escalation. Arms control and nonproliferation diplomacy continues to be an essential part of safeguarding global security. I think its a good thing that we have never had before a president with such long and intense experience in Nuclear Policy as our current president. I think that President Biden is fortunate to have Jake Sullivan advising him on these issues, and where both fortunate and honor to have him here today. Please give him a good welcome. Jake. [applause] thank you, tom, for the that very important set of introductory comments, and for the kind words. I also want to thank daryl for bringing us all together today. Most importantly what to thank all of you for giving me the opportunity to just a few words here this morning. 60 years ago next month in grainy blackandwhite video president kennedy addressed the nation. He was sitting behind the same resolute desk that President Biden its behind now nearly every day that i sit across from him, nearly every day. My fellow citizens, he said, i speak to you tonight in a spirit of hope. Negotiations were concluded in moscow on a on a treaty tol nuclear tests. After years of nonstop negotiations, or stop and start negotiations to be more precise, years of dialogue, years of commitment and courage, establishing the Nuclear Test Ban treaty was a huge moment. Not only for our own National Security but for the security and stability of the world. And as this group knows well it was one of the first steps that would slowly usher in an era of responsible arms control and Nuclear Deterrence measures. An era where nations could compartmentalize the issues of strategic stability, even if they couldnt cooperate on much anything else. An era where adversaries could disagree and debate across basically every domain, but could always find ways to Work Together to limit Nuclear Risks. An era where World Leaders chose transparency even during times of tension, especially during times of tension, because what was at stake was too important, too vital to our shared future. That is the foundation of Nuclear Stability and security that weve depended on for decades. And its the foundation for the Arms Control Association has helped to uphold across generations. But over the last few years that foundation has begun to erode. And today we now stand at what our president would call an Inflection Point in our Nuclear Stability and security. A point that the mets new strategies for achieving the same goal we have held since the cold war, reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. So today i would like to lay out what we are endeavoring to do in pursuit of this. Ill start with the cracks in the foundation that we see, the new threats that are challenging the postcold war nuclear order. And then i walk through how we are trying to adapt both our Nuclear Deterrent and our arms control strategies to meet this moment. As weve all seen recently some of the major cracks in our Nuclear Foundation have come from russia. Last year Russian Forces recklessly attack and sees the zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant in ukraine, the largest operational Nuclear Plant in europe, with little concern for the potential catastrophic consequences of a nuclear incident. Earlier this year president putin unlawfully suspended russias implementation of the new s. T. A. R. T. Treaty the places limits on the most destructive weapons in our arsenals, the kinds they could destroy the world many times over. Only a month later president putin began to take steps to station Tactical Nuclear weapons in belarus. And as we also just a few days ago, putin formally announced that he will withdraw from the treaty on conventional forces in europe, putting the final nail in the coffin of an equipment that once served as a cornerstone of european security, which moscow begin violating years ago. But even prior to russias brutal assault against ukraine, putin has been destabilizing the Nuclear Foundation our forebears laid. For years he defends the development of dangerous new Nuclear Capabilities like radiation spewing Nuclear Power cruise missiles, all while modernizing stockpiling old capabilities that are not regulated by arms control agreements like theater range missiles and torpedoes. Russias actions have been dealing body blows to the postcold war Nuclear Arms Control framework. But its not just russia that we have to look to to consider the full scope of the context we find yourselves in today with respect to Nuclear Security and stability. Weve also seen a change in approach from the peoples republic of china. By 2035, the prc is on track to have as many as 1500 nuclear warheads, one of the largest peacetime nuclear buildups in history. Unlike russia who was threatening to walk away from the negotiating table, from the arms control agreements our countries have relied upon for years, the prc has thus far opted not to come to the table for substantive dialogue on arms control. It has declined to share the size and scope of its Nuclear Forces or to provide launch notifications. And it is not shown much interest in discussions regarding the changes it is making to its Nuclear Forces. Simply put, we have not yet seen a willingness from the prc to compartmentalize strategic stability for broader issues and the relationship. And that compartmentalization as i noted before has been the bedrock of Nuclear Security, indeed strategic stability, for decades. Finally we are seeing increasing Nuclear Threats from the dprk and iran. In the last year alone kim jongun declared that he aimed to have code, the worlds most powerful nuclear arsenal, announcing plans to ramp up the Development Everything from tactical nukes, the icbms, two unmanned underwater Nuclear Weapons. He announced a sweeping your Nuclear Forces policy law that would permit pyongyang to use Nuclear Weapons first against nonnuclear states in direct violation of the nonproliferation treaty, the npt. Npt. And yes tested more Ballistic Missiles than any other period in the dprks history. Iran, after the previous Administrations Department from a deal that put strict limits on Tehran Nuclear development and prevented it from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Irans Nuclear program was left unconstrained. As a result i read is that operating more advanced centrifuges. It has enriched more uranium including at levels closer to weapons grade, and it is done so with Less International monitoring of its program then when it was under the strict constraints of the joint conference of plan of action. Taken together, the cracks in our postcold war Nuclear Foundation are substantial and they are deep. And today we are entering a new era, one that demands new strategies and solutions to achieve the goals weve always had, prevent an arms race, reduce the risk of misperception and escalation, and most importantly, insure the safety and security of our people and people around the world from Nuclear Threats. Same goals, new strategy. Thats the core of our approach to strategic stability, one that can be boiled down to two main lines of effort. First, update our deterrence capabilities in plans. And second, advanced new arms control and Risk Reduction measures. These are two sides of the same proverbial nuclear coin. Responsibly enhancing our deterrent capabilities allows us to negotiate arms control from a position of strength and confidence, and new arms control helps limit and shape our adversaries decisions on Nuclear Capabilities. And so today i would like to spend a little time discussing each of these sides of the nuclear coin. Ill start with the deterrence side of the coin where we are taking a twopronged approach. First, were our Nuclear Program here at home. In practice that needs replacing each leg of our nuclear triad, landbased icbms, Ballistic Missile sublease, and Nuclear Capable bombers. It needs updating our Nuclear Command control and Communications Architecture by replacing aging capabilities with nextgeneration systems. And it means investing in our nuclear complex and Defense Industry to help ensure that we have a responsive Nuclear Enterprise and a resilient base for longterm competition. And i want to be clear here, the United States does not need to increase our Nuclear Forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them. We have been there. We have learned that lesson. Nord to have a deterrent maintenance. Rather, effective deterrence means that we have a better approach, and not more approach. It means ensuring we have capacity and capability to deter, and if necessary defeat major aggression against our country, our allies and our partners. To enhance the effectiveness, we have invested in cutting edge not Nuclear Capabilities that will help sustain the military advantage for decades to come. Capabilities like conventionally armed hypersonic missiles that can reach high value targets. This includes Nuclear Capable missiles a cyberspace tool that will help United States retain advantage over every domain. Together, these modernization efforts will ensure arch turn capabilities remain secure and strong as we head into the 20 30s when the United States will need to deter two Nuclear Powers for the first time in its history. We cant go at this alone, which leads to the second prong of our strategy. Investing and strengthening our alliances abroad. That has been President Bidens overriding priority in many ways and his northstar since the very first day as president of the United States. As we work to deepen our alliances, we always remember that one of our greatest nonproliferation accomplishments has been the u. S. Extended deterrence which has reassured so many of our partners that they do not need to develop Nuclear Weapons of their own. For example, in april, the president reaffirmed our ironclad treaty, including an extended commitment. A step that created more cooperation during a potential nuclear crisis. It showed a recommitment to our shared nonproliferation objectives. Along with our nato allies, we are focused on modernizing an alliance keep the lady. Maturing broad participation in the Nuclear Deterrent to certifying our f35 aircraft to deliver modern Nuclear Gravity bombs. All of these steps from revitalizing our Nuclear Program at home to reinvigorating alliances abroad in those categories, they will be necessary in their own right, but taken together, with the same stability goals weve always had. They will show adversaries and competitors that in an arms waste with the United States, it will be counterproductive at best or worst. We will negotiate armscontrol agreements from that position of strength and confidence ive described. Those agreements are on the others of the coin which is what i would like to tell talk about next. In time, well talk about President Bidens very longstanding commitment to nonproliferation objectives and the long experience in being a leader in the space. He said, we must invent new approaches and foster new International Operation to meet changing threats. Those words only ring more true today. Under the president s leadership, we are advancing three new approaches to strengthen armscontrol and nuclear wrist bid there is wrists. We are exchanging bilateral discussions with russia and china without preconditions. Before i jump into this, let me just step back and say without preconditions, and without accountability, we will still hold Nuclear Powers accountable for reckless behavior and we will hold our adversaries accountable for upholding Nuclear Agreements. For example, we will continue to notify russia with major strategic exercises. There are preexisting Nuclear Agreements. Any response of russias new start, suspending daytoday notifications to russia that are part of this treaty. These steps will guarantee that russia does not see benefits from a treaty they refuse to abide by, and the principle of reciprocity, of key tenant of strategic armscontrol is upheld. It will also demonstrate to russia of returning to full compliance, including receiving detailed information with a pressing for officials. But by acclaiming a new start, we will it here to a central limit with russia, indicating a willingness to continually limiting Strategic Forces through 2026. We agree. It is and neither of our interest to embark on an openended competition with strategic Nuclear Forces, and we are prepared to stick to the central limits as long as russia does. Rather than waiting to resolve all of our bilateral differences, the United States is ready to manage Nuclear Risks and develop a post2026 armscontrol framework. We are prepared to enter into those discussions. Now, the type of limits the United States can agree to after this treaty expires will worse be impacted by the size and scale of the nuclear buildup. That is why we are also ready to engage china without preconditions. Competition can be managed and it will not fear into conflict. It is our hope that among the topics on the table for diplomatic discussions, beijing can include substantive engagement with nuclear issues. That could benefit the security of both of our countries and the security of the entire world. Next, the United States is willing to engage in a new multilateral armscontrol efforts. Including the security council. United states, russia, china and france. We a