Panel there is a higher calling and obligation of democracy and countries that see themselves as accountable to their population and the broader world. Mykonos it in isolation thinking the world would not come to our door. It did for 9 11. Not without the informed Decision Making instructed by the Security Council with nato being high and what i suspect we will get to is syria. Hour. [no audio] should a side lose control in syria or hezbollah try to obtain them. I cant, and you guys are the experts, you i cant remember a time of more moving parts in the middle east puzzle than right now on this day, so much is now, and they are all, of course, interconnected. Hamas is testing israel. Israel is testing egypt. Theres more uncertainty than ever about syria, its relationship with iran, whether it can hold lebanon together, what is hezbollah doing now that its backers are in their own fights inside syria. The evolving role of qatar and saudi arabia, and turkey playing a role. Its enormous. Of anything at the security conference, this is probably the least secure discussion there is. Im reminded of bob dylans favorite song, along the watchtower, and that should be our anthem this morning. There must be a way out of here so lets aim for some relief and less confusion, and i want to propose the following format just for the beginning of this panel, and then i think i want to open it up to a lot of questions from the floor because im there are a lot of questions swimming in your head. Id like to propose our panelists talk about the flow of the situation right now, especially in syria. The what if scenarios. Well spend a little bit of time on, and then their recommendations and context and perspective on greater security in the region and what steps might be taken in syria in particular. The people we have on the panel today are close to the street, ear on the ground, and in their constituencies, they are people whose opinions are sought and whose opinions are listened to. I want to introduce a canadian journalist, shes also a member of the serian National Council formed in opposition to assad, holds a bachelors degree, canadian, a polysci degree and working on her ph. D. Right now. Lecturing in istanbul, the International Center for scholars, a special adviser to the turkish president in the snows. Named one of the most 100 powerful arab women last year, appears on u. S. Cable news channels quite often and the founder and chairman of the independent think tank beirut institute. Safeen, a member of the kurdistan democratic party. Hes also a member of the was a standingin member of the Iraqi Governing Council of the authority in 2004. He was exiled to the u. K. And returned to his homeland and is playing a very key role in its development in the kurdistan province. Lets make it a conversation, more oprah, fewer speeches, and hopefully everybody gets involved shortly. I want to begin by asking all the panelists to take a birds eye view first. How you see the flow happening in the region generally, in syria in particular, and where do you see some connections happening. Afra, would you like to begin . Hello, everyone. Good morning. Im replacing my colleague from the syria National Council. I was slightly surprised he chose me because he knows im in the Nonviolent Movement in syria, and im doing my ph. D. On the Nonviolent Movement in syria, and so its quite a privilege to be hearing your perspective and interesting to hear my perspective. Im almost tempted to do the title now of my ph. D. As the successful failure of nonviolence in syria because its some of you followed the events, the First Six Months was nonviolence, and that didnt happen by chance or coi understand dense. There was a coincidence, but a great deal of planning and conscious bind it; however, syrias been isolated for a long time from the International Community, and there was not enough awareness of the effectiveness of nonviolent. They felt with the brutality of the regime, they have to engage in what they call selfdefense calling for a nofly zone, and so the latest slogans in the demonstrations in syria started asking for International Intervention. It was around this time that the syria National Council was formed, whose mandate was to actually bring help to defend the civilians who were protesting. The reasons the main reason the syria did not want to back up has to do what happened to them in the 80s when the Syrian Regime brutally recrushedded that rebellion centered in the city of hamas and killed, according to the claims of the regimes, 38,000 people in a 27day campaign in the months of february in 1982. The people felt if they back off, they would be punished because in the 80s, after 82, the next following years, they punishedded them collectively, about 80,000 forcibly disappeared people whose files are still not closed, and thousands and thousands of prisoners of conscious. The syrians felt they have to continue at any cost. When help doesnt come, the idea of defense formed in the movement itself, and so those soldiers defecting from the army started creating small groups to defend, in fact, initially what they called the peacefulness of the revolution, and so they went around buildings because thats where snipers used to shoot peaceful protesters, but as an author said, defense is the first act of war. What happened is that in order to achieve this defense of civilians, the small groups, which increasingly also became joined by civilians who took up arms to defend the towns, families, and suburbs, started, actually, engaging in more proactive approaches, and they started taking check points and searching neighborhoods and towns and villages they started calling liberated areas, however, when they speeched in liberating the areas, especially as we see now in the north, they could not protect themselves in the air. That regime held air power, and the regime shelled people, including the use of barrel bombs which could go through several story buildings all the way to the basement. , of course, the casualty rate was tremendous, and, again, syria found themselves defendless, and at the moment, felt abandoned. However, the recent development, where we tried to bring a more Inclusive Coalition in the syria opposition is becoming a hopeful point for syria, that the armed struggle, if it goes under civilian leadership, it would lead to better results if there would not be interventions and nofly zone. Its the real fear because some of them, yesterday, to get to their perspective, those inside syria, activists, and the message they wanted to bring to all of you is that the democracy movement, the prohuman Rights Movement feel abandoned for the last few decades, and all of us have come to this point where in the west theres vulnerable security in the arab world. Theres an imploding of civil society. Thank you. The Development Last week, whats the best way your contacts in syria say it can be given, first of all, weight, and assurances that might take advantage of the situation . Well, from people in the opposition and people on the ground, they feel the coalition needs to be given a chance. Its, perhaps at the moment, the strongest viable option to have the arms struggle in syria and the civilian leadership. Because its chosen, the moderate reformer, an engineer by training, but also comes from a long line of islamic followers who expose ideas like feminist ideas, and then you have a nonbusiness person, and then, also, the head of the Syria Business Council from a christian background and secular feminists. Syria, when they look at the new leadership, feel they represent them, and that they have legitimacy on the ground because they came out of syria, and they are seen as inside opposition. Thank you. Drown into a couple altercations with the regime already. Can you give us a sense of how you see the flow in the region . Let me just refer to what the president of turkey said yesterday when addressed how he sees the situation in syria. He has said that of the countries, syria, and syria, in the sense, syria, may not exist anymore. Syria used to have since its foundation, following world war i and being an independent state and then the United Nations following world war ii is no more. They are in dissent of the magnitude of human tragedies. The population exchanges, and the damage done to the infrastructure of the country. In the material sense, and we are talking about the country of 2 million people, and more than 25 million who have been displaced. Only by a week ago, the refugees that were 160 ,000, lebanon more, and jordan even at the same skill of turkey. Our refugees, apart from those who are displaced within the country itself, and the regime in damascus cannot add to the control nearly 70 of the countryside of syria, and its urban centers, damascus and other parts, are battlegrounds between the oppositions and the regime so the before this started, reach today, march 15, 20 11, we could never think that we have too much march 14, 2011, its over. The syria [inaudible] the question we face in turkey, the region, and all over the world, what we know is that the religion ended, and yet the paradox is religion is in place in damascus so the question is when and how what day we will see assad reigning over syria and how it can be achieved, and what kind of a transition we will ever find syria in place to reassemble the conflict. I think in the western world, there is one dimension or one aspect of syria thats not very much noticed that is the kurdish aspect of it. Syria is not that homogenius country many used to think of. After the Parliament Development after the war in iraq near 2003, quasi independent, representatives with us, the region of government in place and now, roughly making up 10 of the population. The moment the regime collapses, we have come up to the scene, that would be demanding rights as has been in iraq so they will be looking even for an [inaudible] federal syria or an independent syria which will have vailing upon turkey a country with 50 more than the world, that cur key is supposed to be not reconciled themselves start less than theirs. Syria is more than [inaudible] faces a lot of uncertainties concerning syria. One followup question. You mentioned quite rightly theres a kurdish section of the syria population thats remained largely on the side of the armed conflicts. Do you foresee a time, you mentioned once the regime clamses, theres demands for kurdish atonomy, do you see kurd ish in syria defeat the assad regime militarily . They place themselves seemingly neutral because they have not reconciled their differences in the arab segment fearing opposition. The they want the arab commitment for the future of syria in terms of kurdish rights, and in our part of the world, the concepts, the atonoy, they are with dismemberment, fragmentation, and partition so they want to see syria, the opposition, itself, the islams component of the regime,ments the syria to continue arab country. Some minority rights are quoted to whoever the minority is, but the moment arrived historically, and they put back higher than think think, and so they dont reconcile yet, the syria opposition, but this will mean they are cooperating with the regime or not under takeing efforts for the collapse of the regime, but trying to control, and the areas, they are popular, represents majority of the population, the inhabitants, and therefore accountable for their own selfrule, and so it remains to be seen how the things will land because whenever the kurds meant something, turkeys question, and influence upon turkish position visavis syria, and so its complicated and complex, but for the snapshot, if you have the kurds do not move as active as their arab combatants in syria in terms of fighting. Of course, turkey was one of two countries officially recognizing the council from france being the other one. Raghida, do you want to respond . I want to say thank you for inviting me, again, this year, last year, i was in a new position, and i you know, im lebanese citizen, american citizen, live in new york, cover the United Nations, and so that is the way i look at it from the larger region of that international approach, and whatever you want to think of whats going on in the region now, everyone is looking at washington. What will the new president of the United States, what would be the president in the second term do about any of what he promised to do so lets look at the three obama promises. The first promise was in his first term when he said he will find a solution for the palestinianisraeli issue, and, unfortunately, we know what happened over the four years. That has not been that. Its an unfulfilled promise at best. Some see it as a failed promise. The second promise the president of the United States had, unprecedented as it is, when he said the United States would never allow iran to be a nuclear power. Now, this is unprecedented whether right or wrong, but its something that was done not only during the elections, but a statement made by the president more than once, and i think it was in connection of promises made also to the israeli prime minister. How, will president obama fulfill the promise . Wiggle out of it . Absolutely implement it whether its militarily or through containment policy, and what are they doing from my point of view, one of the reasons or a fascinating part about the gaza operation is that, a, they are giving hamas a lead in creating the new dynamics or dictating dynamics in an alliance of the Muslim Brotherhood leaderships be it in egypt or turkey, and its probably the move to undermind the Palestinian Authority because hes going to the United Nations asking for the status of the states, observer state, but the change of subject, at least by the israelis away from iran and syria, on to gaza, to me, is a very fascinating development. Is it temporary or going to be an ongoing how long is that change of subject . Sometimes leaders and security people know better. They feel they could have contained escalation. Maybe thats what they have in mind. Is it doable . Does it work in this part of the region we live in . The third promise president obama made, again, never made any commitments to syria on syria except on the chemical weapons. Now, we understand right now that, you know, theres concern there was a suggestion of a need of 70 ,000 troops in order to secure the chemical facilities in syria in case theres any suspicious movement, be it by, you know, helping, you know, by the jihadists taking over or the regime using these chemical weapons. I mean, this is a big promise as well. What preparations have been made to fulfill that promise . I really dont know. I want somebody to help us with that answer. I think there is, again, always on washington for leadership, and whether the United States want to lead or not, or the leading from behind becomes really a problem for the region and the United States. It can be dragged into the situation. I think the last meeting that took place in cairo regarding syria i think was the first meeting after the elections, the american elections, and i think it was an Interesting Development this because you had a gulf states, and with europeans and with the United States, these are starting to say, all right, think of a strategy to help the addition of syria, and if the lip service is not good enough, they need help in a substantial way. Arming is now on the table, de facto whether its pronounced or not, and its not a problem, the arabs do that. The saudis will not, the qat it ars, and nobodys talking about american troops on the ground there. This is one most Important Development and why is it your important . Because it is really now in terms of how will it be taken forward with russia and china . Will there be confrontation . The question thats going to be asked and needs to be asked is because strategy is needed is to go to the russians and say basically, now what do you want . The president is there for four more years, no more elections, what is it that you want . Deliver what the russians or not . Cold war they want or what is what consequences of that . From what i understand the foreign minister of russia was meeting with the gulf ministers, the gcc ministers, i, from what my information is he did not give in. They are standing exactly where they were. This is not the strategy is needed. It is not a strategy, and the u. S. , no matter how much we try to run away from that situation in syria and israel and iran, its, yeah, light footed or heavy footed, leadership is needed. One followup question. Do you see the current situation, you talked about the instability and opportunity as they say in america, an opportunity to change the channel. Is it likely an opportunity for assad to change the channel and get an engagement with israel and [inaudible] put aside discuss palestine, it is a unifying ground for arabs and for muslims so i dont i mean, again the danger of changing the subject away from syria is really multiple faceted, but those things would be an opportunity to strike a deal between the regime, and maybe they did all right, but its not about giving back, and we can talk about the development more later, but i think the israelis have to decide actually what is it in interest . Is it better to consider that jihadis, dangerous for them, if you will, and couple up with the regime or stay coupled up with the regime because they have been for a long time. Is that in their better interest . Is it in their interest to understand that this regime is gone, going, a selling point. Doesnt matter whether its within a month or year or two and therefore to hasten to cut short the escalation of the extremists and their empowerment, that the jihadists are weaker if its done faster. The fact they are there and strong is because theres hesitation and procrastination. L kurdistan aspect, what would you like to contribute as far as the flow . Yeah, thank you very much. Thank you for invitation. Its good to