Ask you to check that the various mobile devices have been silenced or turned off as we prepare to begin. For everyone inhouse there will be a slight shift in the program agenda. Our keynote will now follow our first panel, but it will also occur before the break that is scheduled before the second panel. So, opening our discussion today will be dr. Lee edwards, distinguished fellow and conservative thought here at the Heritage Foundation. Please join me in welcoming dr. Edwards. [applause] good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Heritage Foundation. We thank you so much for coming out today. August is something of a slow month in washington, dc, and were so pleased that we could attract some of this Towns Limited attention to the matter of u. S. Taiwan relations. And i extend a warm welcome to our speakers, panelists, and of course, to you, members of the audience. Particularly want to offer my appreciation to the Taiwan Benevolent Association of america, and the institutes for taiwanAmerican Relations for partnering with us on todays program. This is only the most recent in our series of similar events which we have done with tbaa over the years. I know theyve always been quite fruitful and i expect todays conversation to be no less so. If i may id like to say on a personal note that i first visited taiwan in 1969. And there have been a few changes since then. There was no metro when i first visit thread all of those days ago. And ive had the privilege of meeting and interviewing three taiwan president s, including the honorable lee dong way. Im among those americans who never forget the significant contributions of the republic of china during world war ii and then the cold war. You know, it is indeed a very interesting time in u. S. Taiwan relations. First, the governments. We have new ones. President when took office last year and her party took control of the legislature. On the u. S. Side, President Trump took office just this past january. And the president ial inaugurations in each of our countries represented a transfer in power between political parties. Whichever party we support, in both our countries, whether now, transfer of power is not something that happens on the other side of the straits. There the institutional framework is quite different, tied up in Chinese Communist party. The faces may change but the party never loses. Which brings me to the other rather interesting thing going on in u. S. Taiwan relations, that is chinas behavior since madam tsais election. Clearly beijing is intent on teaching the taiwanese a lesson in who it chooses for leaders. Adoubleed down, squeezing taiwans international space, objecting to its participation in International Organizations, siphoning away the diplomatic allies, and pressuring it economically. Its doing all this in the cause of getting madam tsai to accept a position on one china that is the antithesis of what she and her party stand for. Well, here at heritage, were not blue or green. But, but we do believe that whatever the relationship between taiwan and china, it must have the express support of the taiwanese people, and at this point in history, they have elected madam tsai and the tpp and the views they represent on this question. Maybe future elects will change this. Who knows. But until then, the position of our own new government should be to support taiwan in the face of the coercion it faces from beijing. How do we do that . Well, ill have to worry about coming up with the answers. We assembled a fine group of experts who explore precisely this question and we look forward to a lively discussion. Thank you all very much. Thank you very much. I ask the panelists to join me up here on stage. Each of the speaks will have 12 minutes to provide theyre perspectives on the crossstraits relations and the United States. Well. In order. So, well begin with patrick cronin, senior director of the asia security pacific at the center for new american security. That will be followed by professor dun of the National University in tie one and the director of the global tie one institute and then professor scott kazer in. University of maryland. A grate pleasure to be back at the Heritage Foundation which has been a repository for u. S. Taiwan relations for decade as we just heard from our soaping peeker eloquently. It was decades ago i learned about taiwan from dean chang as a young, very bright young man who still a very bright young man but a little older. And doing great work. The moderator, im the speaker so i have to Say Something about u. S. Taiwan relation in the Trump Administration and the new administration. Was at the white house yesterday can tell you the administration is starting to come together but still lagging behind expectations and hopes for appointments of key people but these are coming shortly and very good people in the wings ready to go in that will be familiar to people who watch the u. S. Taiwan relations them basic point about the trumps a mrs. S taiwan policies the status quo is the current means but not an end. I mean that the crossstrait relationship is often cast in academia, and also in the media as subject to potential major revision, and that this revision should be made in the form of some kind of fancyiful grand bargain with china or a small bargain, maybe a bad transactional deal so you can pawn off taiwan for the South China Sea or korea. Its not how the Trump Administration views the taiwan policy in my view. So, i think for the Trump Administration, theyve been essentially testing and probing a bit from even before the inauguration, as you know, with tweets and telephone calls, to find out whether there could be a fairer bargain, Better Bargain in this kind of negotiation over what is the status quo, and here if i can just back up and try to understand the thinking at the heart of the white house right now. It is its not that the rulesbased system is wrong. Its just that its run its course for what it can do for the u. S. National interests and for u. S. Allies and partners, and now other powers and especially big, growing powers like china, have learned to game that system and those rules. Theyve done the same things in terms of the crossstrait bargain in three communiques and the six assurances. As a result a desire to figure out can we regain a bitter deal for tie one so it taiwan so it can have to the voice it should have over future and the security to know its not going to be threatened with invasion or force and having to submit and succumb to coercion. This is about a negotiation thats going on here on the crossstrait bargain so the early trial balloons from the Trump Administration can be seen as good or pad and can be portrayed as grand bargains in making but i think its much more about testing out what is more to come from a eventual policy focused on a new ena freer and more prosperous taiwan and taiwanese people. Thats the objective. How to do that . You have to be bound by the constraints of history and by previous administrations and thats that the administration is starting with, starting with the crossstrait status woe in effect and secretary of state tillersons reaffirmation not postthe taiwan relations act and the onechina policy and the three communiques and the six assurances. But its a democratic prosperous taiwan this isnt particular lay partisan position. Its a reafilm make or our earlier position in trying to recognize the ground has shifted and we need to regain a better position. President tsai, just shifting gift from the trump administerings view of this exciting new administration in taipei, she has been an extraordinarily careful practitioner of statecraft, and yesterday every time dr. Tsais tries to um come up with a new phraseology other than the 92 consensus and talk, the general secretary of the communist party dismiss it. They dont want her to regain some new leverage and some new autonomy. They want to actually squeeze taiwan further, whether its stealing diplomatic recognition or cutting back tourism, which has been made up by other countries from now, understand. 0 finding other ways to put coercive pressure on taiwan to change the rules and write the rules unilaterally about be crossstrait relation palestine beijing. This is what is happening in the South China Sea in a more open way in terms of china trying to walk back the Permanent Court of arbitration, july 2016 judgment, which went vastly against china on the South China Sea, and china has ignored and it written their own rules, and if we let them, they will. And much the same on the crossstrait relationship and the answer for the Trump Administration and president tsai, we dont want to let them do that. So we have a find a reasonable way to find a Better Bargaining position. Dr. Tsai is being very careful. President trump being more audacious how he wants to try these trial balloons, but coming together underneath the Trump Administration, very professional group of watchers who will go into place and try to figure out how to do what my final big opinion here is, how to essentially look four a status quo plus, the plus bag revision of this degrade situation of our lynch only the crossstrait relation and the increase in autonomy and prosperity in and the security of taiwan. So, i think this is what we have seen with the arms sale. A very measured list of arms but at the same time it came at a very precarious time when the United States was negotiating at the summit level with between general secretary xi and President Trump as maralago, and i think the Trump Administration wanted to be very clear it was not bargaining away our interests in the region, whether in South China Sea with freedom of navigation operations or crossthe strait with taiwan to try to win greater Chinese Support for putting pressure on north korea. I dont want to digress and talk about north korea. Thats what everybody in the world is talking about. So i want to stay focused on tie one. I will say taiwan, theres one intersection in the near term between taiwan and korea i worry about. If you think about a potential deer to youre racing of u. S. Power progleeks the first and Second Island chain toward asiapacific, the idea that four billion Ballistic Missile the chinese are privately to see whether or not the United States could be psychologically triple and weak end in respects to power projection capability by hastening the day or the thought or the idea that somehow we will not be able to project hour in the first or second chain and that bears on the defense of taiwan. So, the security of the taiwan, free from coercion and free from attack depends on power projection, on economics and a lot of things, but at the foundation is a strong defense. So very important, and i think this administration, the Trump Administration, secretary mattis, and the rest of the team, will be very serious about following up on not just that arms sale but cooperation itch think Dan Blumenthal and Randy Shriver are things i would watch closely on taiwan and this administration, have said well we make sure we seek higher level engagement across the board with taiwan, as possible, as practical. But they said in a piece late last year, after the election, that history show when taiwan feels isolated it takes action to destablize the strait and its in the enlightenings interest interest of the this this is chinese reasoning like to put back forth between various different arguments. Well, the u. S. Taiwan narrative here is clear, were on the right side of history, and i think the arms sale, the engagement, desire for a strong commitment that we saw secretary mattis in singapore talk about the commitment openly. So its no longer a secret were openly committed to taiwan. In fact its a very old story and ill stop there and wait for q a. Thank you very much. Professor dun. Thank you, mr. Chair, and id like to appreciate to the institution from Heritage Foundation, taiwan ben never been benevolence association. My focus on the crossstrait policy. I would like to jump to the declining popularity of theres poor popularity is 47. Later, 39 . And six months later, 26 . One year later, this year, 28 . So, we look at this decline in popularity that is the fact. Another less see who support taiwanese or leaders who support status quo, and last year, 15 , then 60 . Thats a much higher than chinese popularity. Of course, its really not a popular but i like you to know what happens now in taiwan. While it is such kind of lack i mean, the kind of popularity, of course you see taiwanese have different kind of perspective. People talk about and remember one year safe, look at rhetoric. We have to exert behavior. So that is really important. A lot of rhetoric toward taiwan, okay, but how . So let me back to the socalled international environment. Of course, the United States, very important example. So lets see what happen in the international that the kind of uncertainty. Lets see trump make America Great again. Of course, that is what they know. The regional agreement like tpp, and terms of bilateral agreement, that is nafta. And also now that you see what happen north korea, we dont just not blame to anyone. We like to see it Trump Administration must talk with china. Like to Say Something with russia with regard to serious issues. So, taiwans people for sure it is so, lets see the economic for taiwan. The white house the other day, the first ten billion, western europe, and taiwans issue the United States at the investment summit, 31 billion investment. Tie taiwan would like to survive or maintain economic growth. Taiwan need to attract foreign direct investment. This is kind of international environment. We are talking about democracy. What is democracy . In rhetoric, we can say allot but in the last ten years we put the of the people, that is really important. But if we look at the Current Administration, we all know how in taiwan. So, id like to use the term taiwans democracy under siege. Why . Because tpp, everything, we know i would like to say, the reform doesnt touch upon political appointment, high ranking officials. So thats kind of challenges. Ask me how much you i say in the end, 58 reduction. 60 . But they push for reform just in one year. I remember in europe, they always impacting europe. A kind of socalled reform. But in ten years, how come you just push through one year. Last week, again, if you are kind of party, you like to a kind of unity among people. Look to sit down, talk about the socalled how to cooperate. One thin 1980s come here and the university in chicago, and i remember public policy, including today is 2017. But why not taiwan . Well, a lot. Im a scholar. I just remind you have to look at what happened in taiwan. Without a sound democracy, and really so, alarming to say i talk about the talking about the diamond, when policy of some kind of policy or should consider two scenarios. The United States guarantee the tie one Economic Development. If not, we have to consider other. Talking about a third scenario. Pressure, economic pressure, from china. If people have anything, then how you do . But who . To who can find anything happen in taiwan, the people in taiwan. People have this kind of feelings, so if the united would like to support taiwan, then they have to pay much attention to not rhetoric but also the reality, behavior, democracy, economic policies for taiwan. Otherwise, need to get the Chinese People to support something, then people will use to support something or disapprove something. So, im quite frankly speaking about the policy so id like you, all of you, to see about a policy in taiwan, consider these three areas together. The United States congress. Second, taiwan democracy and Economic Development, rebuild economy, rebuild democracy. Dont forget, the u. S. Has a lot of economic with taiwan. Have to advise taiwans authority. What kind of policies of with china. Need to help the people in taiwan i just like use my presentation to let you know these very important three scenarios in taiwan, and dont just look at the socalled rhetoric you. You have to look, really look deep, into what happened in taiwan and you can know whether it is your efforts or liability. Thats my presentation. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you very much. Russell chow. First of all, thank you, dean, walter, and the Heritage Foundation for the invitation to speak her at this timely event. Heritage is a special place for me because actually over a decade ago i cut my teeth here at a young intern, and so for me this is sort of a homecoming, to be able to speak on this stage and with such a distinguish ed group of copanellities itch want to say the views in my Statement Today are my own. Talk about crossstrait relations. The common refrain we often here in washington is crossstrait relation is at a still but this neglects powerful undercurrents shaping relations in profound ways that have an impact our the who governments intera