The july the 5th attempt. One of the difficulties we faced in turkey is explain this event to our international counterparts, its really well complicated and difficult to stress and one of the difficulties and mysteries of this event is also how turkey fighting against the terrorist organization in the aftermath of the coup attempt and how turkey is dealing with both challenges in this new era. Of course, both are very difficult and we have to go off the background to understand this. We will have four distinguished guests today. We will try to understand what happened in terms of Foreign Policy in the aftermath of july the 15th coup attempt. And also, some background about this development. So we will have four speaks, jeffrey, who is the distinguished fellow at Washington Institute for u. S. Policy, our second speaker will be profess or do nae from the university, Foreign Policy. Our third speaker is colonel richard houston, senior u. S. Army advise are and member of planning at u. S. Department of state. And our fourth speaker is chair of Security Studies at Seta Foundation and professor of International Relations. A. M. Boss tore, please. Let me tackle this for two standpoints, the situation related to the coup and how that impacted bilateral relations, secondly, the much broader context of american turkish bilateral relations in the context of the meefiddle east a you eurasia. Turkey was extremely fortunate to survive a coup of embrace the democraticallyelected government facing a military coup. I was involved for the first few hours and i can assure you this was not a deliberate action by the administration. Rather, any of you who have followed president obama in the press or as i have and worked with him know that he doesnt make decisions quickly. It was an effort to gather facts outside of government and in gokt to find out what was going on that led to the delay and that was very unfortunate, because in circumstances like that, you have to act immediately. And we didnt. So thats the first blow. The second blow was in some of the military commanders, whose focus is entirely on isis. When theres no more isis, the American Military is finally going to no longer going to have the war its wanted for 20 years. One it can win. It was focused on, doing wells, suddenly, interlicht was closed down, these generals just blurted out the first thing thats come to their mind. And of course as you know, the general who is run the war in syria and iraq are not the gener generals who report to our european command and work with and cooperate with turkey. But the far bigger problem is the embarrassing fact that fatala gulen is sitting here in the United States. And the administration has yet to give a response, that understandably turkey would find acceptable. Thats going to continue for sometime. Because of the nature of the court system in america. Which not only turks, but donald trump has discovered a very, very independent in this slowtotake decisions. Nonethele nonetheless, and here ankara has a point, the administration could do more to rein in this orange, the allegedly charitable, educational actions of an organization, which at best is opaque and at worst, as many correctly believe i think, was behind this coup. Now the only good news out of this thing a year later is there is as far as i can see, no reputable media think tank, ak detic or other actor who has appeared to challenge the idea that this coup was as you heard this morning, from two of your speakers, mainly or largely done by the vallenists. People have questioned what came after. That will continue. But there hasnt been any major challenge to that to the contrary, many independent journalists, american as well as turkish and others have come to the conclusion that the gulenists were behind it. What remains in play on the bilateral level is that the turkish suspicions that began on the evening of july 15th and have continued. The very difficult problem dieting Fatullah Gulen and the turkish government has gone too far from dismissing people from jobs or prosecuting them because of one or another alleged ties to the gulenist movement. With where turkey is going politically, not economically, not in terms of security and diplomacy, but politically, thats not at the center of american concerns, of administration concerns, it plays a bill role in the media and a big role in congress, something that both sides will have to watch. The basic issue is that the global system that both america and turkey have participated in, in very much benefitted from, is under threat. In the middle east its under threat by iran so some degree, the uni radical extremist groups. Now russia joining iran and in europe, its under threat by russia this is something that both the United States and turkey are aware of. President erdogan has spoken repeatedly of a persian expansionism that needs to be dealt with. A dirn approach than for example the saudis take, where it is seen much more in apocalyptic terms. But it appears to be more of a geostrategic challenge and turkey has taken certain steps to buttress itself against this. This is an area of considerable cooperation and coordination between the two countries, im pretty optimistic about that. The key issue will be syria, after isis is defeated, which could be when i say isis is defeated, i mean as a state and an army, not as an idea or as a terrorist group. So the question is, what do we do with syria and iraq, theres a general problem of chaos, particularly in syria, theres a problem of iran and its surrogates from hezbollah militias, operating in this region and for turkey, theres the problem of the ypg and the pyd, the political and the military and political wings of the syrian basically wing of the pkk. People in america know this, because this is our primary ail rye against isis and isis remains the priority right now, the United States is going to continue to work with the ypg, the pyd and the guise of the Syrian Democratic forces, but we know who provides most of the fighting power, which is the ypg. The kurdish military. After isis is finished, United States and turkey are going to be sitting with this new agreement on jordan and vail as silent partners are going to be sitting on a considerable amount of Syria Territory that have been well defended against anybody who is trying to push into it. Working with local forces. That will be the big question. I would reich to say this is where the United States is going to be, i dont know where turkey is. But there will have to be some kind of coordination. All i can say is nobody knows yet where the United States quite is on this. Because this is a hard, difficult problem. Weve tackled iran before. We were successful. In the iraq iran war of pushing it back when swept into iraq in 1983. We were successful, in the tank war, we werent successful in beirut in a political military campaign in 2011 to stay on in iraq so our own success with iran is mixed. This will be the key geopolitical issue we will have with with turkey. It will affected by turkey, to the extent it will get worse, it will be affected by the gulen situation and it will be affected by the ypg question. The big issue once isis is done is what do we do in iraq and syria with the iranian threat in the total disorganization of the region . Thank you. Ill leave you to fix that mess, okay . I will ask the question after the panel. Simple question. So turkey somehow believes that the u. S. Have some involvement behind or some actors within the u. S. Involvement in july the 15th. Failed coup. So what should the u. S. Have done differently in order to but in particularly sees that great powers dont like competition. Turkey is competition so therefore, ever since Woodrow Wilson advocated an independent kurdistan, ive never heard of americans other than us who have served in turkey who know that fact. Theres this general feeling of suspicion that the United States is always trying to clip turkeys wings, to deny turkey its rightful place in the sun. Turkey isnt the only country that thinks this way. Putin famously believes the greatest disaster of the 20th century was the collapse of the soviet union and even the germans who many respects have learned from 1933 to 1945 often feel that their historic and natural role is being inhibited by the United States. Just a normal feeling. And thus, you have to try doubly hard to react to it. Again, through no deliberate fault, the Obama Administration was a few hours slow and a few adjectives shy of an immediate response. Immediate responses are important in diplomacy. Putin got it more right than we did. And thats embarrassing. And so i think that were just going to have to live with that. It just deepens the suspicion that was there long before this administration and long before president erdogan. Our second speaker will try to get into the background of the situation in turkey. Before the july the 16th coup and tell us about the discussions with regard to turkeys vulnerabilities in that area. Okay. Thank you very much. First of all i would like to express my thanks to the organizers to make me part of this important event. Of course, especially after the july 16th coup attempt, so many articles were written both in media, as well as in academics. Wondering about what would be the main culture of turkish Foreign Policy. In the aftermath of july 16th. Of course this was scene as zastic disastrous, had enormous effects in determination of main culture of turkish policy. It was not the only one main factor that determined the outcome. We need to look at the geopolitical conditions and the shifts that have realized both in regions, the area around turkey as well as the global polarization that we were witting. In the last few years at least. And in this regard, we know that so many judgments were made. Especially regarding to a partys conduct of Foreign Policy, starting with 2002 on. And it was the widest in the two series general. They like the first period was 2002. Up to roughly 2013. And it was the period that was mostly labeled or described as this by criticizing from of course, as adventurous, it was islamic rallies. Risen once. And also, an expansionist one. And according to the recent assertive facts this mode of action in Foreign Policy has brought problems both in the region, as well as beyond. And Second Period or the second phase of conduct of Foreign Policy, was also marked with the change of things that has happened both in turkey. Domesticwise, as well as in a region and beyond. In the region it was right after the lack of arab spring and so, the counterrevolution that led this revolution to return from spring to the winter. This was the main turmoil that brought to the region where we have seen all of these civil wars and frustrations that came out of this event. In especially in the manner region. But at the same time we have seen that the new policy was waiting in ankara. Due to the changing comment in the domestic governor and this time it was concept in this period, was judged by the critics again as this time that turkey had to turn back to the previous route. Meaning this was policy more cautious one. And less ideological one. We have seen a third one one coming up. After a period of living a little bit out of relation, normal life, with russia and together with israel, and one issue was also coincided with turkeys operation. The previous judgments had something again we have seen that turkey has been somehow accused of having another towards the split in russia so all of these kind of judgments was mostly focused on two points. One factor was bringing down the conduct of Foreign Policy to one person. Meaning previously it was this time, this was our president erdogan. And also it was associated with the explanation of the mainstream of Muslim Identity and so as to my answer for a personal one, these were not explainable right answers, because what we have witnessed. This also holds true for july 15th. Failed attempt, period. Tlilds for that, period, too. And what has happened and how the conduct of Turkish Forces came up was the result two of main factors. One was the shift in changing geopolitic around turkey, as well as globaled with and it was the end of the cold war years. That the latest in throughout the decades after the cold war and it was the end of super power overlay that gave brief to the regional powers to be active in their regions. Until the end of the arab spring and this is how turkey has conducted the as well as the constructivist approach in its conduct of Foreign Policy. But all these two have become ineffective. What ive especially witnessed in in the middle east. The third attack, turkey was bordering 900 kilometers with iraq and syria. Where she wants all of a sudden has become somehow threat emanating from this region, the term expects the dire meanings and she had to do with all attempts by pkk and we have been hearing the cities in the south being somehow hit by the rockets by diet or use isis. And this was the situation. And the middle of this all, conflict situation that turkey was dealing, managed the crisis, with negative effects to it we had experience that night, july 15th of course. Sips then we have very naturally seen that it has already started actually before july 15th. That turkey due to the change that i have explained to you both domesticwise and regional and local wise, try to adopt and reset the main cultures of the Foreign Policy. And since then, theyve decided to apply the turkey was there, to somehow secure its borders, stuart first of all. This was the maintain. And inside coming threats, she was trying to do a lot as our president , erdogan has set is. That was a tlifl i security predick bltment, where turkey was not there until the wait until the threat, the origin of the threat comes to our borders. To react before elsewhere, it is right. Just hold domestic, as well as for the outside of our borders. So it is very simplistic. To maintain the region. And expansionist at all. Somehow gretchen. After you phrase the operations, its big systems bart ofs ors that is supposed to wait against most people in iraq. She was interest to decide reality little way if i was going to be a moderate way of acting and reverse actions, that mean, she was there to be i interest spay, from now on. And of course the power tools attempt pause we have a list of examples that we can give up, nor the fuming deal, it neverly counts for 3 million. The civil war in syria. And the other donations that have been made to the developing countries who are in need of. Also turkey has had some spans in the sub power consult tur. In what will is, in educationalwise they were trying to do. And is how this education of the union bring in other examples. What im saying that something also, flosh, try to be effective as long as we can. In educationwise. That i can. How many minutes do i have . Just about to finish, maybe i will stop here and let my colleague follow up. Thank you very much. Do you think july 15th coup attempt had a strong or influential role in turkeys change of government, as it affects relations between russia and the u. S. Or the normal course of events. And just accelerated the process . Well actually it depends on our allies. As well. You know, turkey living in the situation. Neighboring with the strong country. Not a super power maybe of yesterday, but russia, who has a power at the u. N. Security council as well as the Nuclear Power and regarding the situation of turkey having the importing energy, mostly from russia. Its a factor. Of relations between the two. Turkey as being theres no change in the map of western 0or orientation at all. The july 16th coup has brought up a little uneasily. They were expecting ambassador has mentioned to act very quickly to make their positions, that theyre siding with turkish demands for democracy that they prove is how they stop the coup by losing their life or wondering themself. As i said, theres not much change in terms of the main culture of Foreign Policy. But you need to reset yourself as turkey being in the struggles region. You know we need to balance your eelgss, all the time it depends on how the neighboring countries, the big and small ones are acting. So its very noble to diverse for your relations and the security. Just as the way i will explain it. Thank you very much. So richard is an policies, so we usually dont see whats going on in turkey when were in the war environment. How does this look from washington, d. C. And in compares ton maybe other cases, i mean what is the situation of turkey . First off, i would say there are no other cases to which this can be compared. Its sui genesis for sure. Very, very important event on the oneyear anniversary of what was a really monumentally important event. Not just for turkey, but for the friends of turkey and i think we all fall in that kaug here. I was new into my job at the department of state. I have the department of states permission to be here. But im not speaking for the department, im speaking for myself as the one who has studied turkish policies and security and the bilateral relationship for about 28 years now. Im both a military member, im a colonel in the u. S. Armandim a military adviser at the department of state in the policy planning office, which means i have some ability to see the state and the defense perspective on what happened. It was the case that i just started this job when this happened on actually came on the 5th and the 15th. The coup attempt took place. One thing sometimesday feel in this relationship between turkey and the u. S. , theres a lot of what amounts to be a marriage counselor. To vale empathy we also have to describe the american actions towards turkey. In this case more so than the ambassador. I totally understand why we were slow to relate to that few of us pay atks to International Relations and even those of us that do, dont typically follow one coun