Disunited and unsuccessful at home be any better abroad . Can an administration which is filled with quarrelling and backbiting where we can see it be any better abroad where we cannot see it . These things we pledge to you, an administration in which you will not have to support three men to do one mans job. [ cheers applause ] an administration which will route out waste and bring order out of present chaos. An administration which will give the people of this country value received for the taxes they all pay. And so dewy on the campaign trail in late 1944. Ultimately we know the outcome of this, and that is this is going to be another roosevelt victory. Let me say this before we head out. There are really three reasons for this change in tone. You can go back and look at it in more detail later. No real specific thing you need to be aware of as far as numbers here. You see a number of them on the screen. One of the things that made this so intense in the end is there was a perceived closeness in the race in national polls. You can see on the screen its very tight in these national polls, 51 to 49, in september dewy was two points ahead of roosevelt, 51 to 49. And fortune poll in july indicated that the war was over, dewy would win big. The second reason was the feisty temperaments of the Vice President ial candidates. They were picked, i think, to rally the respective bases and they did a good job of that. Truman was not a great orator but he would be quite fiery. Bricker was much more eloquent and more sensational than truman, traveling over 15,000 miles that fall and delivering over 200 speeches, most of them scathing indictments of the deal. And then finally roosevelt and dewey just didnt like each other. Sometimes you have campaigns where the candidates just dont like each other. And one friend of roosevelts later recalled, you know, roosevelt respected landon. He got along with wilkie and really liked him. But that tom dewy he really hates, it showed. Roosevelt will campaign late in the season making a Campaign Swing through a number of big cities, including chicago and boston. And on election day its a close race but ultimately another roosevelt victory. 53 to 46 . Now while this looks pretty overwhelming for roosevelt, actually in some of these states where roosevelt wins, the margin of victory for him is very small. This is actually the closest race since 1916 when Charles Evans hughes narrowly lost to Woodrow Wilson. Indeed 500,000 vote switch in the right states would have meant a dewy win in the Electoral College. Thats a relatively small window of victory for roosevelt. Still a pretty big win. Any questions or concerns . All right. When we come back on friday well continue our look at world war ii taking a look at combat pragss in the european theater. Have a good day. See you on friday. You are dismissed. Tomorrow night American History tv focuses on the president ial campaign of adlai stevenson. We begin with the contenders. Thats follows by stevensons acceptance speech and a discussion on the election of 1952. American history tv prime time starts at 8 00 eastern each night this week. Up next, davis pietrusza discusses his book. The author describes Harry Trumans career, the 1948 president ial election and main players in the campaign. This was recorded at the live ton park halfmoon public library. It is about an hour, ten minutes. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the clifton parkhalfmoon public library. We are very pleased to have David Pietrusza with us this morning to talk about his latest book, 1948 Harry Trumans improbable victory and the year that transformed america. David is the author of a number of books. Hes been here to talk in the past about his book about arnold rothstein, about the book of 1920, the year of six president s, 1960, lbj versus jfk versus nixon, silent pals almanac, the homespun wit of virginias Calvin Coolidge and ted williams my life in pictures. Hes also written and produced a documentary local heroes baseball in Capital District diamonds. Reviews for his harry truman book talk about how lively it is, illuminating portraits of four candidates and the evenhanded appraisal of truman is especially compelling. The journey that he takes to get us to election day is one that he has definitively become the best at leading. In the past, his work has been compared to theodore whites classic the making of the president s series. After three straight home runs, i think pietrusza is the undisputed champion of chronicling americans president ial campaigns. He holds a degree from the university of albany and has served on city council in amsterdam, new york, and is the recipient of the 2011 excellence in letters and arts award of the Alumni Association at the university at albany. In addition to doing president ial biographies and elections, he is also a member of sabra, the baseball historian organization. He is a caseywinning judge and jury and an edgar Award Finalist for his book on arnold rothstein. Ladies and gentlemen, David Pietrusza. [ applause ] thank you, natalie, and its great to be back here again. And the question that people always ask me about my books is, why did you write this book . And americans claim to hate politics, but we love elections, we love sports. My sports background, your sports background, the whole countrys crazy about it. We love the competition. We love the 162game series and things going down to the seventh game of the world series. We love mazeroski hitting the home run and we love bill buckner and mookie wilson. And 1948 is one of those mazeroski, mookie, bill buckner elections. This is when the underdog comes back and pulls it out when everyone has written them off. Thats Harry Trumans improbable victory. Thats the year that was. Thats the election that was the great, iconic comeback, the great surprise, the great surprise when the pundits are proven so spectacularly wrong. Thats another thing we love. We love to be smarter than all the guys on tv and writing the newspaper columns. And harry truman, who was just an ordinary harry, the only president of the 20th century who doesnt go on to college. Hes a High School Graduate not the only once since. Not the last one. The only one of the 20th century. You have to go back to andrew johnson, to Abraham Lincoln to find such a common man. And not just a common man, but a fellow whos been a failure at business. His famous shop in Downtown Kansas City that goes bust and hes left to pay off those debts for 20 years, and he pays them all off. He wont declare bankruptcy. He has a standard of honor. And he will pay all his debts. He also has a standard of honor which marks him in his earlier political career where he is the product and he is known for really most of his active political career as being the product of one of americas most spectacularly corrupt political machines. This is something that, like al smith in 1928 is never really able to transcend. Hes a product of tamny, and he gets whooped by Herbert Hoover for that and a number of other reasons. Harry truman is the product of this prendergast machine in kansas city. Hes the head of the county government for them. They steal millions and millions of dollars. Harry truman never takes a dime. He has to kind of wink at what goes on in some cases. He those get things done. He would sit down. He would sit down and pour out his soul to private letters, which he never sent to anyone. Hed hole up in this hotel and write these letters, which were found decades after his death, as he would wrestle with these questions am i a Public Servant or am i a crook . Am i doing the right thing . Hes conflicted by this, but he stays in this machine and he eventually determines to get out of local government. He wants to be a congressman. But hes such a puppet, such a nobody, even at that time, that its like, no, harry, you cant be a congressman. Can i be a governor . No, you cant be governor. When the machine cant find anybody to run for United States senate in 1934 okay. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. So, the machine cant find anyone to run for senate, United States senate in 1934. Youd think they could. Its going to be a big democratic year. Harry pulls it off, but he goes into the senate, again, hes like a nobody. A nobody. And then disaster strikes. 1939, boss pendergast on good friday goes to the federal pen for corruption, and people say, well, thats the end of harry truman now. Whos going to want him . Whos going to want this pendergast puppet still to remain in the United States senate . His mentor is finished and so is he. He faces a threeway primary and wins. He goes to all the small towns and courthouses and masonic temples and every other place he knows in missouri and wows them, pulls it off. And thats a valuable lesson when it comes to 1948 and the Democratic Party is split once again. But hes still, hes back in the senate, but who is he . Hes given an assignment. Look into all these military bases, defense contracting things were doing to win the war against hitler and tojo. Are we getting the bang for the buck . Are we spending our money wisely . Harry truman goes around, gets in his car, had really no staff, no expense, delivers a remarkable report that, no, were not. Were wasting a hell of a lot of money while our boys are fighting and dying in europe, in north africa and in the south pacific. And we have got to stop it, and heres how. And people say, gee whiz, he did that intelligently, honestly in a nonpartisan manner. Maybe theres something to this harry truman guy. Which takes us to 1944. Franklin roosevelt is looking for a fourth term. The wars still on. And in 1940, he had dumped his Vice President , john nance garner, who had grown a bit too conservative for the new deal. And he puts in henry a. Wallace, his secretary of the agriculture, who is a very leftwing, kind of newage kind of guy for back then. And he forces wallace on the ticket in 1940. The Democratic Party does not really want him. And in 1944, roosevelt is getting the word back you keep this guy on the ticket, he could cost you a million votes. Roosevelts a great politician. He knows what this means. And he says, ive forced Henry Wallace on the party once. I cant do it twice. I cant do it twice. Hes got to go. Not in so many words, not so many words, but he eventually slits wallaces throat. So, who did he replace him with . The guy you replace him with is a guy whos not too southern, not too northern, not too conservative, not too liberal. Respected by the unions but not really in the pocket of the unions. And thats harry truman. He fits in all the slots. They put him on the ticket in 1944, and by april 1945 Franklin Roosevelt is dead. And harry truman goes to the white house and says to eleanor roosevelt, can i pray for you . And she says, no, we need to pray for you because you are the fellow who is in trouble now. He starts off very popular. The war is won. The atomic bombs are dropped on japan. There is vj day. Americas at peace, finally. And harry truman reaches a popularity level of 87 . Sic transit gloria mundi, that goes downhill real fast. And people, some of that is beyond his control, but there are reasons why his popularity drops. He is not Franklin Roosevelt. Right now, all the republicans are saying, who is the next reagan . Boy, we miss reagan a lot. And back then, it was, by god, by god how we miss fdr among the democrats. And harry truman was no fdr. So, there is a longing for the lost leader there. And also, hes prone to certain gaffes. His appointments are not always the strongest. There was a talk of the gang, as there was an ohio gang, as people who are hangerson, smalltimers who are put into positions way above their abilities. You see the old new dealers being shoved out of the cabinet, not just Henry Wallace, who is fired by harry truman for being a prostalinist, really, giving speeches against the truman foreign policy, but you also have where with harry truman, the country turns against the party and the leader, which brings us into war. If you dont believe me, ask either bush, ask lyndon johnson, Woodrow Wilson after world war i, what happens to the Democratic Party. What happens to Winston Churchill . A pretty good war leader in 1945. Hes out the door. So, this is a normal thing. The readjustment means a lot of things get thrown out, including parties in power. Republicans take the house and the senate in 1946. Theyre on a roll. Harry truman keeps going up and down in the popularity. By the spring of 1948, hes down in the low 30s in terms of popularity. And its not only a republicandemocrat thing going on here. The Democratic Party is splitting three ways, not just two ways, not just youve got some sort of, oh, carter Teddy Kennedy thing going on, not a George Bush Pat Buchanan thing going on, but its being split, the left, the center and the right. On the right, you have the southern segregationist democrats. Franklin roosevelt had talked a good game with black civil rights, but he really hadnt done anything. Remember that the army, the navy in world war ii are still segregated. Theres no move to desegregate anything in the country. Harry truman proposes a big Civil Rights Program at the beginning of 1948. The southern democrats are simply aghast by this. And beyond that, they feel personally betrayed, because they had thought of harry truman as one of their own. His mother had been in an internment camp run by the union during the civil war. Confederate sympathizers. And if you look at harrys statements and you look at his private correspondence, he is not exactly a bleeding heart liberal on the topic. But he puts this forward, and the southerners are aghast. They Start Talking about a strategy in which they will punish harry truman, they will punish the Democratic Party. They will make the Democratic Party come to its senses on civil rights and states rights and all of these things, and they will do this by putting the election into the Electoral College and brokering a deal. And one of the people involved in that is a young man, a young governor of South Carolina named Jay Strom Thurmond, a decorated war veteran, former judge, and considered at the time to be kind of a progressive liberal new deal kind of democrat, the new face of the south. Except that once he gets caught up in this, when the South Carolina legislators and such Start Talking against the truman Civil Rights Program, he joins with the dixiecrats largely centered in mississippi and alabama in going to these regional meetings to say what can we do about harry truman. Now, the irony of this, and the irony of this when thurmond starts being carried away by this, talking about how the federal governments bayonets will not force black people into our swimming pools, into our homes, into our schools, is the irony is that Jay Strom Thurmond has a black, illegitimate daughter. Thats one wing of the Democratic Party in 1948. The other wing, which seems actually to be more troublesome to harry truman, is the Henry Wallace wing. And that is the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party, beyond the new dealers, beyond the eleanor roosevelts, beyond the Hubert Humphreys, which is in many cases communist dominated, communist party United States of america. Not just left wing, not just radical, whatever, but actual party members. And as Wallace Wallace has a problem in that hes been cast aside not once, but twice, and both times involving harry truman. You would not be human unless you were bitter about this. And you had this bitter former Vice President of the United States with leftwing proclivities anyway, and now hes got two reasons, two reasons to be against harry truman personally, and he is talked into not a primary challenge against truman but a thirdparty challenge. Whats their strategy . Again, whats their strategy . Since the strategy is being dictated from the extreme left wingers, from the people being controlled by really moscow when you get down to it, its got to be that theyre, again, trying to not win an election but to send the message to truman and say, look, you change your foreign policy, Democratic Party, you change your foreign policy, harry truman, because we will punish you and we will give the election to the republicans. And then we will go back to the way it was under Franklin Roosevelt, with a guy we can deal with. In 1944, the communist party of the United States had actually endorsed Franklin Roosevelt, did not run a