Elizabeth rule guess i am russian political scholar and left wing activist who helped to leave russia after the beginning of all of this blood in invasion of ukraine. And its great honor and pleasure for me to be hosting this discussion with bill burr of ga about his new book, the cold of the new cold war. The United States, russia and china from kosovo to ukraine, which were recently published by by kim market and of this research of some very and and the whole topic of the new cold war is not something new for me in fact i remember how we discussed exactly the same of the theme think of the the the common new cold war between russia and us or lets say collective west is as president putin prefers to call cold in mom in december of 2014, when made an interview bell about the cold, which came after the russian ization of crimea after the implementation of western sanctions against against russia and when we broke down and now coming back to this great overview of the russian American Relations since since the nineties. My first question will be if these current state of of war not not the cold war but but the actual falls war in ukraine was inevitable if this war or the reasons of this war where rooted in the very beginning the relations between all soviet russia and us or. It could be avoided in any way. Yeah. Thank ilya and yeah, its its its a great pleasure to to to see again, actually. And that im very grateful to you to too for having accepted to be the discussant in this and the session in this introduction of the book or book launch. This is the book actually was released just today in the United States, which is why we are having this this event on this day. So thank you very much for that great, great pleasure for me. I mean the question you are you started with is what is actually a practically what the book ends with in some sense because its ends with this war in ukraine this invasion of ukraine. And without getting into details, because this is not a book the ukraine war as, you know, its a book about the the whole process since the nineties as you said up to now and how it. To 22222 this war so i mean the short answer to your question i would say no i mean or yes it was inevitable i mean no it wasnt inevitable it wasnt inevitable it was equitable and. This is the product of of the conjunction of. Two processes actually, one which is the us led attitude towards russia, towards moscow after the end of the soviet union since the nineties until now, you have had a certain pattern of behavior of washington towards, russia that led to a crispy portion in the relation between russia and the west in general and especially with the United States. It has gone through stages since the clinton and the George W Bush, the when had obama, which i mean where the tensions were little lower and then you had trump again but then that was it was china that you had the the highest tensions and so i mean theres a history of relations that lead to the the present outcome on other hand, you have another process which is russia and about which, you know alia certainly better than i because you have lived there, you have studied very closely and even written a lot about what is happening in russia. But so you have had a at the level the russian political of the regime, the regime, the evolution of the putin regime, the increase authoritarianism, the increased nationalism, the the the the the even the revanchism of the regime that developed the years and especially after 2012. As i tried to explain the book, which is a kind of turning point the the putin regime goes full speed using nationalism as a main tool of legitimation and hence the the whole discourse about ukraine that will be developing after that. The 2014 annexation of crimea you mentioned and the incursion Eastern Ukraine then in donbas and the whole. I mean a chain of events that led to this fatal day of 24th of february when when you have this invasion invasion. So so you have two processes. And i think of the two was inherited. And to get back to your so too complex if i a bit the issue not of the two processes was inevitable there could have been other developments options other rulers you know and the. And even if we take the the very short time frame of of the the weeks the months before the invasion even then i think and my my view of that is that putin was not i mean, had massed the troops and all that were threatening the use of force, but he was ready to bargain and he offered and there were russian proposals. But those russian proposals just completely dismissed by the United States, by nato, as things that are out of the question cant discuss this and this just propaganda. So this the lack of response is something i think that precipitated the the what happened and the increase the conviction of of putin that that this is the the right course and this invasion, of course he completely miscalculated that its a terrible miscalculation and of course, its very tragic for the poor ukrainian population thats tragic for for the russian even soldiers who are killed like you know cannot cannon fodder in this but it is also it will remain in history i think as one of the most the biggest blunders. Miscalculations of of of any of any imperial project, if you want. So, so, so i think at various levels, what whichever angle you take the the the answer to the question remains that was equitable. Think that was equitable. A but okay we got that and the issue is it is important to understand what led to that in order to try to prevent a repetition of the pattern and even something may be much worse because we have never been so close to a at least from since the worst moments of the cold war. We havent seen a in which the world has been close to to a new global war, to a new world war, which then would also involve nuclear weapons. Because speaking of Nuclear Powers and it is one of the most frightening aspects of what is happening, is that putin has been repeatedly threatening to the nuclear weapons, tactical or not, but you get into the spiral of using the nuclear weapons, the there is theres no real limit. You get into a very, very dangerous. Situation. So so, yes, i think that it is important to to understand how we got there, that it is not a matter of an evil putin, that, you know, the way it is portrayed that we would have done this anyway. I dont think things i think that putin himself is also the product of in part of a certain us attitude towards russia. That is, of course he is the of a local russian process of is the he he built a kind of regime but this is also determined by the environment that he encountered the International Level especially in dealings with the United States and western countries. But the United States particular because countries some of them had different attitude. So a russia like or france. Sent to this for this expanded the answer. In fact. So, you know, as a person who was barely full and the russian so as a researcher i found the the main kind of motive motive that you have behind it is the idea of the russia is always responding, yes, hold the border will start because russias response impose some threat or of later in the expansion much of russia is responding to some measures of ukraine. So basically although of course we know that this is the universal way to justify every kind of aggressive war of deplorables. Also explaining that he is only a defendant, germany gains the gains the threats from soviet union from uk. And so but now in the Current Situation the question of responsibility in exactly in the framework of this danger or of the you know, Nuclear Threat and so on is well is is extremely important. And all who have responsibility for for what and this this site of this idea that the russia only responding and whole responsibility is lie only on on the west. So my of view and i assume for four years this is very lets say one sided. Yes. Where it is for a kind of primitive and they find the bomb of the many merits of your book that you carefully, carefully researched the the role of the Russian Military complex from from the nineties the development of this nationalist imperialist approach to the postsoviet states from the from the russian officials. So for you provided some very important data in your book about their real scale of the military expenses in in the in the in which were growing during all the recent, lets say two decades. So do think that for now what could be the you know that the place in mind in russia in this and this where a dangerous Global Situation if lets say is possible to communicate to make deals with the current russian leadership and on what basis these deals or ceasefire or Peace Agreement could be could have been like. Because as you rightly point out in your book roster, the huge trade of distrust among the and russia coming back to right. So well well thats definite clear beyond the the the book but but yes thats important issue if i understand you well your asking me how would i see an end to this. Ive written even recently in nation think that i mean i cant imagine. Lets say a political settlement the peaceful ending this war without involving the United Nations and without involving. And here again we find this the where where whereby the United States busy antagonize in china at the very moment when the of china to a peaceful settlement is obviously a very important one and the europeans understand that and thats why you have the succession now european leaders going to beijing to to meet the chinese president have the spanish prime minister. You have now the french president going the the the the the European Union also also love underlay and and so you have a of of of visits to to to russia by people who are trying to china to trying to the to to to get china to intervene in in bringing this war an end. Now now, i mean, putin wont stop the war without a face saving, a solution i mean, otherwise, of course his own regime would be in jeopardy. And china would not support any kind of of ending of the war that would a again be regarded as a major defeat for the russian side. So this will involve some kind of compromise. And i think the the kind of compromise that the ukrainian president zelensky, the beginning of the war, was offering before i think the United States and other western powers, britain in particular, to try to get him to to a more. Radical kind of solution position. This this idea of of, okay, you withdraw to the the lines of 24 february because who are invasion and we can find a you know us a long long Term Solution for the crimea the rest through maybe a mechanism of referenda and and and ukraine will not join they do i mean, would remove this goal of joining nato even from its constitution. It had been added in the constitution of ukraine. I mean, that kind of compromise is something that that could worked and is still i would see as the the the possible. Put it. I mean, the possible basis for a political but to be frank, it has become very difficult and more time goes on it is more difficult unless unless the military situation becomes such that well both sides come to the conclusion that going further would be too costly. The i think for for now western countries through ukraine are betting on this counteroffensive. This that in the spring now in spring and summer depending on what the results are, they can we will see some move, i presume, on the diplomatic level but thats at least seen from the United States. I think that the European Countries much bigger interest in stopping the war than the united and thats why they are deploying more serious efforts that direction. The french, the german in particular and and hence this attitude towards china which is very different from the american the u. S. Attitude towards china. You know sinking for for this analysis. And of course, we hope for for such a solution. But i probably will will develop my my question because well, if we can this kind cease fire of this kind of agreement with the current, lets say, russian leadership, how to deal with the where of the whole, lets say, consciousness the world view hold of these some of the International Relations shared by not only by putin but also by us leadership, by chinese leadership as you explain in your book already and on focused on the on the foreseen global confrontation of the visa of some kind of multipolar world. And also if there russell regime russian political regime by no more a more designed iran the idea of the military expansion so for tomorrow as a person what goes forward and the russian awareness is very hard to imagine russia will under putin will stop was just or was some some modest achievements some in ukraine. Yeah sure. I mean i agree with you i think as i said its a matter of now of the what militarily there would on the ground. So i mean yeah its clear that the Russian Military has been i mean achieving very little and when you think that an army like the russian army one of the mightiest military powers on earth has been fighting for for for for now months to to get the city, bermuda, this is i mean, you know, a disgrace militarily for a Major Military power like like russia so obviously i mean unless putin has become completely irrational and mad, i mean, he he he will or he who need to see or his military can see at least a show you go to the i mean, the the heads of the army they can see that they are not advancing. They are not able to achieve. They are in a and this is costing them a lot. And also the the russian economy benefit from very High Oil Prices and gas prices in the immediate of the war. But has ended now prices have been have gone down even if in the last 24 hours they are up again because the Oil Producers decided to to reduce their oil output in order to to to to stop this decline in of the the the of the oil prices. So economically and from various aspects will be really difficult, i think, for for for russia to carry on forever. This is not possible. And, and hence, i mean there might they might come a point where where also if the chinese get in because chinese also would be worried that this ends up in a kind of major western victory and that is not good for china. So china would want to prevent that and would then might pressure on russia to to accept some kind of face saving compromise. So this is thats why i think and have written that chinas contribution is indispensable they use that term for any settlement. Of course, if you leave it just to putin with his kind of of increase. Very distorted view of the world, i would say. Well, it probably might might. Be become as irrational as oil as hitler has. You know, when when he ended up in his bunker, you know, and so so you have a tendency like this and thats this is something in here, you know better than i know that this. There is a shift, a, in the political regime in russia, which has the traits of neo fascism fascism. We couldnt say that years ago. This is a deed. The product, a development which went through the the rise of opposition against putin when came back after medvedev. Replaced him for four years. So in 2012, this led him to to to seek some alternative a legitimation ideological legislative. And he found ukraine at that point and as one russian author that mentioned call it ukraine mania developed in russia and and indeed the regime managed to to really increase its popularity putin increased a lot its popularity. Im sure you you you agree i mean you are there can see i mean i it from what i read from outside but that the regime increased a lot its popularity through crimea the annexation of crimea was very popular and so you had the development of this kind nationalism and they did the more and more authoritarianism to the point of now really russia almost totalitarian at the level of repression i mean every day we we read articles and testimonies by russian russian dissidents and the rest about the the fact that there is no more possibility for any expression dissent. Its its repression is increasing dramatically so so of course the issue is not if putin would go any kind of settlement or solution. The issue is he might be forced by the conditions on the ground by his military and by china. And thats what you may regard as possible factors in bringing him to some kind of compromise. Yes. Also i think very interesting. The wearing or dont for a moment your book when you describe the approach of the and discussions on the Obama Administration about the socalled reset in their relations russia and you explained that initially obama really interested in some lets see real reset so it was not just just to rhetorics and in fact russia in in one moment was also kind of open for for these talks with us and there where they their mobilization. So the opposition and mobilizations in russia and also the beginning of arab spring thats a radical change the they approach of russia and its very interesting how the role of the lets say mosque movements the popular movements play, this crucial role the in the in the, lets say, global politics. Yeah because definitely whole Russian Foreign policy is designed not only against the, lets say, u. S. The federal money of of the west, but also against any, lets say, ideas, the revolutionary of the Political Revolution of overthrow of the current government on the government by popular and the the core like ideological moment beside the beside the russian is that the masses lets say the they have no edge on civil so there are just one or another global power or secret service behind every every uprising. So i think and case the reaction against ukraine after maidan which a kind of Mass Movement was the Political Revolution for sure. And you agreed with was above this point. And book. Its exactly game is the continuation of this lets say control revolutionary crusade of of putins russia. Do you think that in the further of the you know global the popular masses in various ways c