, okay welcome everybody. Our audience in the classroom and our audience beyond. I can get a class on the war in ukraine, titled the history of the present. And which we are trying to go back into the past to do our very best to understand events that are happening before our eyes. In the present tense. Todays class is going to be and overview of the war, with our typical back and forth between past and present. And im going to try to explain, not a mathematics class, but a rather simple formula on the blackboard for those who can see it. Formula is a is not equal to b plus c. Ill explain that more with that rather mysterious mathematical formula, what it means. A is a variable that stands for russian aspirations, with Foreign Policy, thats one side of the equation here. B as the Foreign Policy and military aspirations of ukraine, and c are the military and Foreign Affairs aspirations of the United States. B and c have gone along pretty well for the last six months, he witnessed a very Close Partnership between ukraine and the United States. So, in that sense, b plus c adds up to something significant. What it does not add up to is a, and there is been a very significant clash between the aspirations of the United States and ukraine. On the one hand. And the aspirations of russia on the other. So, that is what ill try to exploit in short form in todays class, for the next 40, 45 minutes or so. And then well see if there are questions before we drown todays class to a close. Let me start, before going into a, b and c, with some words about the war itself that began on the 24th of february. It would be deeply inaccurate to say that the war in ukraine, as weve come to refer to it, is unique to our times. That is a first major war since 1945, or even the first major european conflict since 1945. If you look back over the history of the last 60, 70 years, we will see nothing that quite amounts to a Second World War. But you will see one major conflict after another. Now just a can get american terms. If the war in korea from 19 50 to 54, you have vietnam from the late 19 50s until 1974, 75. You have the war in iraq that began in the spring of 2003. The war in afghanistan that began not too long after the september 11th attacks in 2001. If you look at the history of asia over the last 40, 50 years, you will see many conflicts. And i think anybody who would look at the history of it as, 40 50 years would see many conflicts as well. Multiple wars, civil wars, upheavals et cetera. If it were in the southeast of europe in the 1990s, in the balkans. We have a russian invasion of the country of georgia and the south caucus in 2008. Indeed, what we have witnessed over the last six months has in fact been the second bucket chapter of the war in ukraine, which begins in 2008. Do not forget the 2022, this ominous here that were living through, weve entered an entirely new or different era. There have been wars and many places. In yemen recently. Ethiopia. Conflicts in sri lanka and other places. Ukraine is really one among Many International conflicts that are occurring at the present moment. But it, is i would argue, i say this by way of introduction, quite a dramatic departure from the recent past. But it is, i would both in eurot ill try to explain in a moment, but also globally. I would argue, perhaps a little bit of exaggeration, not intentional, but part of what im saying that the events of february 2022, the beginning of the war in ukraine, are on par with the events of that december of 1914. And the events of the fall of 1939. Which is to say its on power at the beginning of the First World War of the Second World War. In the late 1940s, the beginning of the cold war, which doesnt have such a precise moment of origin but is a fouryear conflict that was very consequential and significant. And i think that we are facing something of similar size and scope and stature with the current war in ukraine. So, let me say first about why this war matters as much as it does for europe. And then a few words for why the war minutes as much of it does globally. And that we can move into our mathematical equation of a not equaling b plus c. Europe has not seen a war of this kind, truly, since 1945. We have an engagement between the Largest Military in europe, the Russian Military, and the ukrainian military, which is not the same size of the Russian Military. The two countries are not comparable in terms of economic heft and population. Ukraine, a bit less than 40 million, russia around 140 Million People. The russian economy is bigger than the ukrainian. But the military is a significant one as well. If you subtract the russian economy from the equation, you could see that ukraine has one of europes biggest and most battletested armies in all of europe yep. It is a confrontation between two major militaries, not quite on par with each other on paper but two largescale militarys. It is not, as we mightve expected ten or 15 years ago, a war that primarily takes place in cyberspace. Not a war of machines and computers as much as a war of soldiers. Much the way the venetian war was of soldiers, or the conquest of the roman empire where wars of soldiers. Its a very traditional war and that regard. Not all countries are equal in terms of geography. Not all countries are equal in the scheme of things, but theyre not all equal in terms of geography. So, it matters very much where a war takes place. If the United States fights war incarnated as it did in the 1980s, that matters for grenada. It matters for the United States. But it may not matter for the world. Ukraine is a very different kind of thing. From the small country of grenada. Uk comprises a very, very important piece of global real estate. It is to the north of the black sea, the black sea unites turkey with europe. Turkey with russia. Ukraine with turkey. Its a major transit point. And its a great strategic fleet evidence. Ukraine has many countries abroad as to the last of the European Union, hungary, slovakia and poland, as well as romania. So, for countries within the European Union. Ukraine has bellow wrist to its southern border, which is an independent country but very closely tied with russia. If ukraine has a huge, huge land border with russia. So, ukraine as one of these countries, if you think of the world as jenga blocks, ukraine is one of the countries where if you pull it out its very likely that the whole tower comes tumbling down. Its connected to many different places. And as a great deal to do with the world economy. If you think of the chinese belt and Road Initiative that begins in china, has destinations that europe and other places. It runs through the country of ukraine. If you think back to the first and Second World Wars, although there wasnt identified a country called ukraine, and those towards the territory of contemporary ukraine is integral to both of those wars. Many, many battles on the First World War that are fought on the territory of ukraine. And that, if anything, is you more toward the Second World War. They were instrumental to the collapse of the soviet union. It was uganda votes the socialist republic as a part of the soviet union. As ukraines vote in the fall of 1991 that top of the soviet union. Ukraine has perhaps been a little bit less of a gun after 1991 in terms of the history of conflict that is until 2013, 2014 but what revolves around ukraine is simply very important. In that, sense also we can fold into this story, the importance of geography. The fact that russia is one of the combatants in the world. Worship is one of the countries that touches upon many other countries with part of russia and asia. Part of russia and central asia. Part of russia and europe. And now because this too is an area of contestation, and important in the arctic. Russia is in many ways at the center of the world and russia is one of the worlds two Major Nuclear powers. Any conflict that involves russia involves all of us, it involves humanity because of the Nuclear Dimension. That raises the stature the war in ukraine i would say to a very high level. Lets also understand the stakes of this war. There are times when countries skirmish with one another. They have a conflict over a piece of territory, over an issue and able to contain that skirmish within certain boundaries. Those can be terrible affairs, they can be terrible episodes but its possible to have what you could describe as alimited war. Maybe thats what russia had in 2008. But its not what ukraine and russia had at present moment. This is a no holds barred existential war for both countries. If putin loses this war, i feel safe making this prediction, if putin loses this war, his presidency will be over. It is not impossible that his entire government could fall if the war is lost. There is evidence for this in a way that two president s in russian history. One that i would imagine press quite considerably on putins putin being a student of history among other things. And this is the war that russia fought against a panda 1905. Its settled in New Hampshire by Teddy Roosevelt in the summer of 1905. Russia lost this war in japan that began the long progression of nicholas the second, last saar of the russian empire towards revolution and towards the loss of power which he experience in 1917. Russia and 1917 was in the process of losing the First World War. Nicholas the second lost two wars, you could say, and then he lost his government. Then after that, he lost his life. And you could also point to the macallan gorbachev who died yesterday, stories are now being written. He lost the war in afghanistan, soviet union lost the war in afghanistan in the 1980s. It was a part of his own power eventually. Loss of the war in afghanistan 1987. Soviet union cracks up in 1991. Not because of these words alone but there is a relationship. Putin is there for acutely aware that if he fails in ukraine and he can fill in ukraine, its a war he can certainly lose. If he does, it will not be a trivial loss. It will not be a loss that he cannot probably survive politically it. Well be game over for Vladimir Putin. I feel in that, sense whenever its a war he has to win the stakes if anything are higher in ukraine. We have seen from the nature of the Russian Occupation of various territories the reporting is never perfectly crist, sometimes murky. But i think that these are safe generalizations. The russian army has committed numerous atrocities. That there have been forced programs of versification of the population that has been forced to take on different kinds of classes and use different language at times. Because of the Russian Occupation. There are reports of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of ukrainian children have been deported. To russia. And i think its no secret that it effusion has the ability to assassinate or in some ways to limit the Ukrainian Government, i think thats probably what he was trying to do in the first two days of the war. If that was possible for him, this is something that he would do. So ukraine faces the prospect of a very the loss of freedom in a really every respect i think in that sense, you can say for ukraine as well this is a next essential conflict. If you agree with those two assumptions, those two statements, there is an existential conflict for russia and ukraine simultaneously, it means that these countries are going to give it everything. Theyre going to push as hard as they can push. To stave off defeat or to achieve victory. This is not going to be some kind oflimited smallscale skirmish. When a countrys dispute, little bit like india and pakistan have disputed territory in kashmir for the last couple of decades. But theyre not gonna use their weapons against each other because of this dispute. Its a dispute there able to contain. Not so in ukraine in the case of ukraine and russia. And therefore, the final point i made before getting into a review of russian ukrainian aspirations at the present moment or over the last year or so. And that is very possible and conflict other countries. More likely then the possibility that ukraine can contain this conflict is the possibility of the conflict will spread to include additional countries. Other than ukraine or russia. Already you have countries including the United States that are involved in the conflict from a certain distance. Its an open question whether they contain that distance. In that sense, this could be very melodramatic and hopefully not irresponsibly so. In that sense, the war in ukraine runs the very real risk of becoming a world war. That is unfortunately the precedent with these kind of wars in europe because of the density of countries that are so closely connected and related. They draw one another into these conflict so we have two examples of the 20th century of what were the beginning kind of smaller scale conflicts that developed very quickly into world war. Thats something to worry about, something to bear in mind in this case. All of what im trying to say. Speculative unfactual. All of them trying to say is that the event that has happened before our eyes over the last seven months is one that is of immense significance. So that by way of introduction. If we are to understand the immense significant of this event. We need to understand our the motivations of the primary actors. This is what i will turn our attention to at the moment. What motivates the three major participants in this conflict. The three major participants, a b and c. In radical form or russia, with started the war, thats what we had to begin the story. The war being fought on the territory of ukraine. So thats of equal importance in terms of understanding the conflict. And one might walk down the streets of washington d. C. On a pleasant late summer early fall day in october or rather august of 2022 and say that this country is nothing to do in the war in europe. The country engaged in its own business, getting ready for midterm elections. Back to school, sentiment and mood in washington d. C. Sort of the city still sort of at a rhythm of its late summer vacation. That might all be the optics of washington d. C. At the present moment. But make no mistake, washington d. C. Or rather the United States is an unbelievably important participant in the war in ukraine. It would not be unfolding as it is unfolding if the United States were not the kind of participant that it is. Thats something another piece of the puzzle. Even though the war is quite distant, possibly american sullivan had any awareness of gun force upon us. Although a very distance, the United States is not distant from the war. We understand the motivations as well. What motivated Vladimir Putin to pull the trigger on the 24th of february, 2022. I think the first thing that we have to say in the spirit of being careful and rigorous is that there is a great deal that we do not know. We dont have access to the inner symptoms of the kremlin. We never making that access. We dont have a historians like to have a good trail of documents were to really lay out the thinking of putin, the decisionmaking process. The in the vigil advisers, the military planning, et cetera. Theres a lot of data that we might wish to have, a lot of the factual information that we might wish to have. Then we dont have. Hat we dont have. So put an asterisk by anything that is said by or anybody else in terms of putins motivation has put an asterisk next to that and have that asterisks indicate that what is being said is guesswork and guesswork different from factual analysis. So since we cant do a factual analysis the way that we could of say czar nicholas, 2 seconds thinking at the time of the First World War, Kaiser Wilhelm thinking or Woodrow Wilsons or anybody else is at that time, we dont have that advantage. Well to just do the best we can by guessing. So in that spirit, i am going to as methodically and, carefully as they can about motivations russia has had for. The brutal war it has been prosecuting in ukraine over the last six and a half months. One of the keys to understanding russian Foreign Policy is and big u. S. Relationship within, russian Foreign Policy between and defense. It is very, very difficult to disentangle these two things in russian Foreign Policy. And what two outside observers can like pure offense may from the inside, from the kremlins perspective, be perceived as defense. What is perceived as defense . The kremlin can be acted upon in an offensive manner ill try to make this as clear as i can. This point about russian Foreign Policy. But i want to begin with this somewhat abstract generalization about russian Foreign Policy, which goes deep back into russian history. And what are the constants of russian Foreign Policy going back not decades, but centuries, as is an equation of security and territory security and. Territory. It is a commonly made observation and a very legitimate and important one, a commonly made observation that russia is not Great Britain or japan or the United States that matter. It is not a country that is bounded by oceans, is not switzerland, its not bounded by mountai