And people who are teenagers or young are going into the workforce, you could imagine that there are limited numbers of entrylevel jobs, and so theres some of that happening. Is that fair . Well, i wouldnt say that its a limited number. Okay. But theyre in competition, and that might affect the wages, and that, in turn, might affect how many hours the teenagers want to work. One last topic before we turn to the audience. So, weve talked about effects among highly skilled workers in the entrepreneurial economy and low skilled workers. How do we understand the effects in the middle . The report talks i mean, because of the hourglass shape of the immigration flows, theyre not as direct, but there are certainly some effects. Jenny . So, i dont think that we have really good purely empirical studies looking at this. We have studies that are somewhat of a blend of theory and data looking at this, but those studies say that precisely because there are not many immigrants coming in with middle skills, and because the people in the middle might be complimentary, they work with the people at the top and the bottom rather than competing with them, they suggest that at least relatively speaking, immigration benefits middleskilled natives compared to the high and lowskilled natives, or at least certainly, again, compared to the low. The high, it looks like perhaps that theres some evidence. Its not as solid as some other, but that they may also benefit from immigration. So, the middle and the highest skilled probably are benefiting. The lowest skilled are probably being hurt. I want to explore a little bit about those benefits. Can you say a little bit more about what they constitute, how somebody in the middle might not perceive it directly but where in their checkbook accounts they would see the effects . Well, an example would be i mean, often we would take construction and we talk about can we go back to you . No, you can go first. Well, we talk about say construction, so thats a classic theres a lot of inflows of people from mexico, Central America into the lowerlevel construction jobs. But there are people who are the supervisors of those people. And so, if they actually do reduce the wages of the natives at the bottom, they will have a bigger demand for Construction Services because theyre cheaper, and that will increase the demand for more likely the natives who are the supervisors, and their wages will go up. So, i was just going to say that part of this and part of the reason i seem to be sort of more on these messages than others is i spent all of yesterday doing some of this with the National Academy directly, to read the slides that we have. So, partly, if you go beyond employment and wages, there are other ways for that whole middle section benefit from immigrants being in the country, right . So which jenny said, in terms of housing costs or construction is probably less, those costs are less because we have immigrants acting as construction workers. In certain regions, in the midwest especially, where theyre losing population, the fact that you want to sell your house, the fact that there are immigrants coming in is probably the main thing propping up those house prices. There are also all sorts of Service Industries that are helping make the economy run and the country run. You know, if we think about sort of where immigrants are working in terms of working in Domestic Health within the house, health care aides, nannies, right . There are all sorts of direct effects that everybody, even if youre not working with somebody in your job who is an immigrant, they might be affecting your life and sort of helping things run smoother. On the consumer side. On the consumer side, exactly. Yeah. And certainly, what youre seeing, many prices. Yes. I mean, thats where people in the middle will obviously notably see the impact is on what they pay for all kinds of goods and services housing, a variety of other factors. And there are Certain Industries and certain occupations that are predominantly staffed with immigrants. And often, these lowskilled immigrants that people dont necessarily want to do those jobs. A colleague of mine was at a hearing yesterday on longterm care. And if you think about the people who are working in longterm care facilities, a disproportionate number of them are not very well paid, often recent immigrants who are doing sort of some of the thankless work that we really need to do, and its going to become increasingly important as people age, you know, as a society. So, lets turn to the audience for a little more than ten minutes or so, and then well come back to the panel for some closing thoughts. So, i think theres a microphone, is that right . Theres a microphone. Raise your hands. Please let us know who you are. If this gentleman in the front has right off the mark. Your study or your report seems to confirm previous studies showing that the effects on wages tend to effect nativeborns without a high school education. In addition to that, you say that it also affects prior immigrants. Does that help explain why there may be a few antiimmigrant sentiment by these prior immigrants . Actually, im often surprised that there isnt more antiimmigrant sentiment in the u. S. Amongst immigrants. But i think actually over time and place, its common. All immigrants think that they and all prior immigrants were fantastic, that everyone who came after them were somehow not so good, and i think its for exactly this reason. I think youre right. Yes. Can we get a microphone over here you are. Jack martin. The importance of this study, it seems to me, is that it provides information with regard to decisionmaking, which is important because of the fact that immigration is a discretionary policy. Its not written in stone. So, when you find in the study that there are disparate effects with regard to who it is coming in, particularly low educational level, lowwage workers having a more negative effect with regard to the fiscal consequences, that would seem to inform the fact that theres a valid debate with regard to how many of those lower educationallevel, non englishspeaking people come into the country because it has more of a negative fiscal effect. But the other issues really have to do with how many youre talking about. And as i understand it, the results of the study suggest that the more the better in terms of the economic advantage of a large number of immigrants coming into the country, but doesnt that ignore the fact that there are other outside factors, such as crowding and impact on the environment and so on, which i assume are not taken into consideration at all in this report . So, we dont make any policy recommendations in the report. If you go to chapter 10 and youre looking sort of for after we spent these three years doing this what we think sort of optimal policy for immigration would be, youd be a little disappointed. Partly, we were tasked with sort of laying out information and helping inform people to make those decisions. We make recommendations, but theyre mainly about the need for better data, which is i shouldnt make light of it. It would actually be incredibly useful for us to know more information about sort of who that Second Generation is, but i think a lot of what youre saying is valid and i think those are interesting questions and policy debates we should be having as a country, sort of about whether and how wed want to change immigration policy and if there is some level. But we dont really get into those things. I dont know if you guys have i do want to follow up a little bit. So, the one key thing to know is that the benefit of immigration comes from immigrants being different from the natives, at least if you put aside the innovation and the spillover questions issues. So, if we had an inflow of immigrants to the u. S. Where, basically, a twin of every person already in the u. S. Came in, you would actually expect that in the end it would just be a bigger u. S. With everything the same, otherwise. Sage wages, same prices. Because the benefit comes when the immigrants are different and it allows this greater specialization. So, one of the advantages of having lower skilled immigrants and our natives is to allow the specialization in some of the things kim was talking about, in some cases Offering Services that you actually dont even get in europe because the immigrants are not sufficiently low skilled that these services are actually offered. So, thats one almost impossible to measure benefit of the low skilled immigrants, so you need to add that. You need to add the fiscal side. Right, so the demographic differences are actually sort of driving a lot of when we talk about the fact of having immigrants coming in. But the point is that the report doesnt offer these policy prescriptions. No. Its a 500page report put on the table as a buffet for you to choose from and for us to argue about later, because it really does feed a lot of ideas. But just to finish, you need to add the specialization, the fiscal and the lowering the native wages altogether when you make your decision. Those three things about lowskilled immigrants. Immigration policy is a balancing act. You have to balance all these objectives. And i think they added more data here and more insights to put into the balancing equation. Do you have any other questions . Yes. Good morning. Amanda berkson chillcot. Thank you very much. My question has to do with the difference between the National Economic picture and the state and local economic picture. As researchers, and this is clearly a very evidencebased report, what data do you think is in the report that would be of most interest to a statelevel policymaker whos trying evaluate issues at the state level, rather than this sort of 30,000foot National Level of these issues . Chapter 9. [ laughter ] which i did a lot of the work on. But basically, what we do and what is different than what was done before, and partly because i thought it was really important for us to do, is in that chapter we actually break out sort of the fiscal costs and benefits for state and local governments state by state. And so, a lot of this comes down to both the characteristics of the different populations, so the different groups, and also the decisions that states are making in terms of the level of spending on education and the tax systems they have in place. And so, but if youre a state budget person or if youre just a state legislator, theyre going to basically go to that chapter and look at sort of what things look like in california versus texas. And so, part of that is to sort of break out how much this varies. And the thing that i hope they take away from this, because we do find in general that immigrants cost more than they contribute, is that Second Generation, where were actually seeing this return even to many states. The problem is because people are mobile and because state tax systems are less progressive and less based on income, it means that the returns arent necessarily as clear for the states that have to make that investment in education for what benefits the country as a whole. But for state folks, i think there is going to be a lot of delving over those tables and hope it helps. Time for one last question. Youre straining. Being diminutive. Hi, Heather Stewart from the association of international educators. I want to speak to Higher Education in International Students. Can you speak to the spillover effect of International Students on campuses in the u. S. And also to after they graduate, some portion of them would like to remain and work in the United States. What effects does that have on our economy and our communities . Thank you. Jenny . Yeah, thats a very good question, and theres only a little bit in the report on that which i think reflects partly that the literatures not as big as you would think. So, im trying to think. We did have a couple papers in there or that we discussed that look at how the choice of field of natives is affected by the arrival of the immigrants, but thats only a little part of your question. So, i think, actually, we can talk after and i can tell you a bit more about what i think we know thats not in the report. But we dont actually have a very good understanding. Theres only limited thats very limited amount in the report. Its kind of amazing, given its a 500page report, how much is not necessarily in there that keeps coming up. Yes. You now have approximately a minute and a half each for a sumization of the 500 words. What is the takeaway here . Am i going . Or what do you want to add . Okay. Lets go across this way. Kim, youll have the last word. Okay. So, one thing we havent mentioned yet, i do when i talk about these things stress what the impact on natives is because i find that thats what natives are most interested in, but we havent mentioned that immigration is very, very beneficial to immigrants. And one thing that we have in the paper, its a very crude calculation, extremely crude, but we calculate that the size of the economy of gdp, its about 11 larger because of immigration, and thats in itself something some people are interested in, just the size, not per capita or not natives, just how big it is. Most of that benefit does actually go to the immigrants, but chock that up as a good thing. So, to summarize, what we show in paper is that as we would expect theoretically, but we find impyrrhm pyrrhicly, immigr raises the natives, but there are winners and losers amongst the natives. On average no effect on the wages of natives, no effect on the employment of natives, but some negative impact on the, as kim stressed, the small group by now of very unskilled natives. And yes, ill leave it at that. I would just conclude like two broad points, one being that we cannot evaluate immigration in a static way at a moment in time. Its impossible, because the investments or the costs of immigrants are at one point in time and the payoffs are later. If you dont look over time, were not able to make any decision at all thats at all reasonable. And at the same time, the nativeborn population over time is also evolving. Were all evolving through time. And the aging of the baby boomers in particular will be the dominant factor for the next 20 years impacting the fiscal state of america. And so, thats just inescapable. Fortunately, children grow up, and children become the new taxpayers and the new workers and new home buyers. So we have to keep both those things looking forward in time. Ill stop there. And i think weve covered a lot of what i think is important in the report. I think dowell points it out, the fiscal stuff is really important. One of the things we do cover that we didnt get into as much is the fact that immigrants are actually moving into a larger set of communities, and so there is more geographic dispersion, and i think thats sort of an issue that, you know, warrants more study. So id like to think, rather than this being the last word on these topics, its sort of an opening way of sort of putting some information out there that we can then build on and sort of expand what we know and what we need to know about the topic. Oh, absolutely. As i said at the onset, this report is it opens the chapter of study and debate that will take a long time to digest, add to and expand on, much the way new americans produced volumes following it. This really seethes our study. And if theres a really, really simple bottom line to this, is that its not simple. And be wary of anybody on any side of the argument who tries to convince you that its simple. Thank you. [ applause ] that was just terrific. So, as were bringing this panel off and were going to move the next one on directly, if you need to stretch your legs, let me encourage you to do that in place, if we can, because were going to go straight into the next discussion without a break. But it was really a wonderful chance to have three people who were part of three years of deliberation dig into and explain for us the information. And were going to move from this discussion immediately into a discussion about the lived experience and the ways in which the broader trends that we were talking about are playing themselves out at the state and at the local level. And while our next panel is getting miked, i wanted to also just thank those of you who are participating in a very robust social media conversation about this discussion. I really want to i think there are a lot of its interesting to see what people are pulling out from the panels and highlighting online, and i think those are areas that we can explore some more. I will say that the urban and usc are very excited about trying to dig in to some of these consequences in our Work Together thats going to happen in the next chapter. So, we will have our panel miked in just about 15 more seconds, and well move right ahead. So, urban Institute Senior fellow audrey singer will moderate this next discussion. And, are we good to go . All right. Thank you, audrey. [ inaudible ] down to the state an local level. Im audrey singer, senior fellow in the metropolitan communities and Housing Policy Center here at the urban institute, and were really delighted to have all of you in the room with us and those of you who are watching on the webcast. Welcome as well. Before i introduce our panelists, i just want to say a word about the that we have behind us. When i saw that picture i emailed kim rubin asking her if that was two members of the study panel when they received the final report jumping for joy. And she wrote back, no, there would be 500 pages, a book, in her hand, not just one page, so this is a naturalization ceremony with a certificate, i believe. So were really excited to have a stellar set of speakers from several communities around the country. Next to me is renata soto, the cofounder and executive director of connection americas in nashville. Con next yoen is a nonprofit that serves latino families in the nashville area to help immigrants learn english, support eck kducational success otherwise helping children immigrate into nashville. Next to her is sonia lynn, General Council and policy director of the new York City Mayors Office of immigrant affairs. And moya is an agency that works to ensure the wellbeing of immigrant communities that supports their economic, social and civic integration. Sonia, her main responsibilities, she leads programs that promote access to justice by connecting immigrants to free and safe Immigration Legal Services