Simple technologies, fraking, hydraulic drilling and having geopolitical consequences are hard to forsee. Absolutely. And im impressed by the things that dont happen. If we had this confers in 1950, we all would have said energy will be cheap, it will be free by this point in history because we thought e thought Nuclear Energy would be great. It didnt quite turn out that way. Im sbreged as much by the dogs that never bark as the interesting ones that do. Greg, thank you so much. Let me just close this by quoting your boss, general claker, the right man, the right time, you can see by the intellectual quality by which he handles these questions. Best of luck and well help you wfr e where ever we can. Oh, thanks very much. And thank you for doing this. Right. Tonight, on cspan2, live coverage of the Louisiana Senate debate between threeterm democratic incouple bant Mary Landriue and bill cassidy. That will determine the winner of the Louisiana Senate race, a race which has been undeclared since election day in november you e you can watch the debate tonight live cspan 2. Remind us again of where this race stands just a few days before the runoff. Yes, thank you for having me on. Were just a few days out from the election. Tonight is the debate which well have on cspan and on tv. So, yeah, were heading into the final stretch. Mary landriue and bill cassidy joining her in the runoff for that senate seat. You bring up the debate. Thats happening tonight. We appreciate you promoting it for us. What does each side have to do for the debate tonight . You know, theres been some some Little Things that have just kind of been being promoted and a few that are coming out right now that are focusing a lot on bill cassidys time as a teacher and how much work he was doing for su. He had some residents that he working with and everything. As far as the cassidy side, hes been agreeing to only a limited number of debates. This is literally the only debate between the primary and the runoff that hes agreed to. So for his campaign, its been kind of keep your head down and sail through. And we have the headlines bringing those records to that debate. Besides that teaching controversy, keystone excel pipeline has been an issue in this race, especially the votes that happened in the house and senate. What did those votes do for both sides heading into this runoff . I think really, at the end of the day, i think it played a lot better on tv than necessarily even that here, you know, i think that probably hurt a lot more than it helped. Getting to a voter like that. If it had passed, maybe that would have become a really big campaign issue. But it doesnt really seem to be something that people are talking about here. It was like that couple of days or whatever when nobody knew what was going obama. And if congressman bill cassidy wins, it would give republicans 54 seats. What will be the key places to watch on saturday when the runoff votes start coming in. Well, obviously, the new orleans area is really key. Jefferson paris, places where theyve been able to do really well in past elections, etch though theyre kind of republican strongholds. It will be interesting to see if those areas decide to go fully more fully republican. And well be watching both tonights debate and on saturday. Elizabeth crisp with the advocate. Appreciate your time tonight. Yeah, thank you for having me on. With live coverage of the u. S. House on cspan and the senate on cspan2, here on cspan3, we compliment that with Public Affairs events. And then on weekends, we show the 1250th anniversary visiting battlefields, keyevents, american artifacts and touring key siets to discover what arty facts mean. History bookshelf with the bestknown American History writers, the presidency of our nations commanders in chief, lectures in history with top College Professors delving into americas past. Watch us in hd, like us on facebook and follow us on twitter. Nuclear talks were extended last week for another seven months after ne gauche yaters failed to reach a deal. At the brookings institution, speakers discuss some of the factors that led to an extension in talks and whether or not a deal can be reached by the next deadline in june. This is an hour and a half. Good morning, everybody. My name is bob einhorn from the brookings institute. Id like to welcome you to this Panel Discussion on the iran yan Nuclear Development program and the recent developments in the last few days in vienna. As you know, vienna agreed to extend the negotiations for a second time. They agreed to seek a political arrangement, a political agreement within about four months. And they agreed to try to final oizize the details of any political agreement within seven months or approximately by late june. During this period, the interim arrangements that were worked out november, 2013, will remain in place. These are the arrangements under a deal called the joint plan of action. And so Irans Nuclear program will remain frozen in all critical respects. The modest sanctions relief will continue mostly in asia. But during this period, the most impactful of the economic sanctions, those on banking and oil will remain in place. Secretary of state, john kerry, gave a press had a press event yesterday in vienna. And the secretary made the case for an extension of the negotiations. What he was ind kating was that for the first time in a while, there was some momentum. He went onto elaborate how the interim deal had constrained Irans Nuclear program. He indicated based on reported on the economic Atomic Energy agency that iran had complied with its nominations under the interim deal. He said that considering how far we had come in a year, and given the potential for reaching a comprehensive deal over the next several months, it would have been a terrible mistake to walk away from the negotiations by the time of the november 24th deadline. The billionpresident of iran in yesterday he was more or less pleased with the extension. He expressed confidence that a comprehensive deal could be concluded he said sooner or later. Others expressed similar views. They seemed content with the continuation of the interim deal at least for the time being. But, at the same time, while indicating that progress had been achieved, secretary kerry remained very frank. He made it clear that to see continued success be far from inevitable. Iran had yet to demonstrate the realism required to close the deal. Anticipate i anticipating critics on capital hill, secretary kerry called on them, critics on the hill, to give the Obama Administration the benefit of the doubt. Reiterating that, in fact, could be disruptive of the further negotiating process. Congressional reactions have been mixed so far. Some are prepared to give the Obama Administration the benefit of the doubt. Others have indicated that no deal has been achieved in a year. If we have any hope of achieving a deal over the next several monts, its important that we obtain additional leverage. And theyre call iing in the ne congress where republicans control the senate for the i inquisition of additional sanctions. What is the likelihood that in the coming months, comprehensive deal will be achieved . What are the gaps that need to be closed. What kind of deal would be in the best interest of the United States and of its partners in the middle east. How will they respond to the calls for additional sanctions. And what will be the outcome of this potential clash between the executive branch and the legislative branchs. We have an excellent panel today. Gary, until a while ago, was the most senior white house official responsible for weapons of mass destruction was intimately involved in the negotiations. To my left is David Albright who was founder and head of the stut for science and international security. Isis not that the other isis. The good isis. As you all know, its the goto place to understand the technical side of the iran yan issue, as well as many other issues. We also have ed lavign, a normer staff member of the Senate Foreign relations committee. He knows the hill and better than almost anybody else. Im delighted that ed is joining us today. I may ask a question questions, provide a few comments of my own and then open it up to the audience. Gary, why dont you start off . Thanks, bob. And thanks to everybody for coming today. The first thing i want to do is complement secretary kerry for managing the negotiation. Now, the failure to reach an agreement over this weekend is entirely irans fault. I think its very important to understand that the u. S. Put forward a very reasonable, even generalous offering that would have allowed iran to retain a limited enrichment capacity and eventually build up to a larger capacity as part of its Nuclear Power program. They refuse to give up a sing one of their operate iing infuss and they insist on total and immediate sanctions relief. Maybe this is just sharp bargaining tactics. Maybe as we near the new deadline, well dwin to see the iran yans recognize and not feel compelled to make fundamental concessions on limiting Irans Nuclear weapons capability. In his view, the iranian economy is stabilized, under the joint plan of action. It gives iran a much stronger bargaining position and makes it more able to withstand the consequences if the joint plan of action collapses. If thats the case, in seven months, well be exactly where we are today. So what can we do to put pressure or persuade how many to negotiate in these extreme positions. One is not to offer any new proposals. Im sure that our negotiating team understands that. Second, i think we need to begin to talk to our allies, both Oil Consumers and oil producers, about the need to prepare for the possible ility that the joi plan of action may collapse. The iran yans know that were beginning to make these preparations and that may help to persuade them that they need to make concessions. Now, we need to recognize, i think, that getting russia and china on board with an end to these negotiations and a return to sanctions is going to be very challenging. Probably not possible, especially in the context of ukraine. But up until now, the more important sanctions are the ones that the u. S. And its allies have imposed. Third, id like to see the white house in Congress Work on legislation that would increase u. S. Leverage by authorizing the president to impose new sanctions while, at the same time, giving the iran yans an execution to walk away from the talks. Now, will this work . I honestly dont know. It may be that the Supreme Leader is just determined not to budge. That would be unfortunate where, presumably, iran would resume all the sanctions campaign. Even if we resume the sanctions campaign, this is not going to immediately force iran to capitulate. Maybe over time, iran may come back to the bargaining table. But, in the meantime, theyll be creeping forward with their Nuclear Program. I dont think iran is close to getting Nuclear Weapons. They can begin to build up their stockpiles and so forth. I dont think the u. S. Is close to attacking iran or even isr l israel. I think our best chance of keeping it going is to show iran that, if necessary, were prepared to go back to the sanctions campaign. Perhaps you can focus on some of the remaining gaps and what may be required to close those gaps. What would make a deal a good deal . Yeah, i think id first like to say id agree with gary. In the sense that its iran has not been wanting to make con sexes. The u. S. Has been willing to, in some cases, go too far. And ill talk a little bit about that, in order to try to find an acceptable deal. I think, unfortunately, that was true in july. I was at the end of the negotiations. I ran was not willing to make the concessions there. The same appears to be true over the next weekend. I think from my technical point of view, its going to require a very highlevel political decision in iran in order for this to work. What i would like to do is start with the interim deal itself. Weve been skruting the ie reports for years. It became apparent to us about a month ago with the lags ie report that theres a little bit of fraying on the edges of the concessions irans made on the interim deal. Lawyers can bedadebate whether a violation. I think the current know negotiations are that these things need to be clarified. Theres more binding down of 20 . Or, as pioneered in the july deal, that more 20 ends up in the fuel for the rezej reactor. I expected the deal would have 25 kilograms. Its not much more than five kilograms. Because of the ambiguities and what it means to use the 20 in the fuel assemblies. I think thats another thing where you can strengthen the constraints on the program to get the 700 million a month. Did iran have a Nuclear Weapons program . Is that possibly continuing . Will iran build Nuclear Weapons in the future . I think ifgs a little disappointed. Thats what ive always heard was that the u. S. Position. In a sense, it would be deferred. Iran should satisfy the concerns before there is a deal. I would say its dangerous not to deal with that. I followed the ia activities. I followed the rock et inspections in the 90s. You have to know the history in order to know whats going on now. I think thats true in any area. It gets right to the issue of verifiability of this deal. If the ia concerns are unaddressed, one of the things iran learned is it could stone wall the ia and get the p5 plus 1 to gave. And thats going to undermine the ias credibility. And theyre going to be the principle mechanism to verify any long term deal. So it doesnt make sense to undermine their credit e credibility and to encourage iran to define the ia after a deal was signed. So with sech months, theres plenty of time to settle this. I do think its going to require a very high level decision of iran to do that. It is well known. They differ on a set of ideas. I dont think theres been an agreement on how far the stocks would be reduced. I mean, to have an impact, in a sense, to strepgten the limits on center fuj numbers, youve got to drive those numbers from seven or so tons, or 3 1 2 percent down to a hundred kilograms. I dont think thats been, by any means,ed. And then down the u. S. Has put on the table. Its considered 4500. I think it would strengthen it significantly. Its a very important part of this. Another is whats going to happen to the center fujs that would be declared excess. How do you deal with it if its 4,000 center fujs that are enriching. Youre talking 15,000 or so that are staying in place. How do you make sure that those cant be reoperated or restarted quickly. We dont have a good answer. And i dont think the u. S. Has a good answer. It doesnt seem iran seems to be willing to go down the path in such detail. Its going to have to do a lot more. In those cases, the ie has to do more to assure that they can use the term the absence of ondeclared activities or facilities. Theyre well defined whats needed. And iran has not been so willing to engage on these measures that would be supplementary to the additional protocol. So let me stop there. Okay, thank you. The members of congress probably approach this issue roughly the way you have heard the first two speakers approach it. With a fair amoupt of concern, sometimes cynicism, not really believing that iran chooses to make a deal. If you look at most of the proposals that are made in the last year or so, theyve died in subcommittee. They havent even gotten to full committee, even on the house side under republican control. So when you hear people say that harry reid has bolted up sanctions, dont believe it. Everybody has bottled up sanctions. And the reason is that the bills that have been put forward has been killer legislation rather than very helpful legislation. Its very difficult to be helpful and say we need to have the iranyans end all enrichment. We need to destroy or dismantled all of their illicit infrastructure. Well, if you could get a complete surrender on these issues by iran, that would be very nice. Its just that nobody, literally nobody, is predicting that iran is going to do that. So if you wampbt a piece of legislation that would help, rather than antagonizing our allies and ending our negotiations, you have to come up with something else. It is, indeed, as i say, one other type of proposal that has been made in the past. And you can expect to see more of those in the future, would require similar for arms sales or peaceful cooperation agreements under which congress would have the ability to pass a resolution of disapproval, now, you might ask cant they always do that . The difference is that under those other two bodies of law, Congress Sets up expedited procedures so that they actually can get a vote on resolution of approval and they dont allow implementation to begin until congress has had 30 or 60 days in which to try to pass one of those resolutions. Of course, such resolutions can be vetoed. So congress would still need to have a twothirds majority in both houses in order to impose its will on the president. But you could imagine giving continued ability to compromise if they had something good to propose. So what is it that they can propose that might actually be useful . And here im talking only with myself. I havent found others to get down to this level of detail, just as perhaps our negotiators havent found the iran yans willing to get down to this revel of detail. You could imagine a saxs bill that would say we wont invoke more sanctions unless we cannot get some of the things were willing to sign a deal on with iran. That would be a very difficult piece of legislation for congress, because it would involve giving up more maximum goals. But it could help the negotiations if we backed up our negotiators to the extent that this is how far we can go and we can itch leapt a deal that goes this far. But if it goes further, we may not be able to get congress to support it. You can imagine legislation that would enable them to say that more precisely. The problem with that legislation would be that it assumes iran wants a deal. If it doesnt know, then all of that legislation wont do much good. You can give more help tovt iae. You can give more direction to the u