And participant in president ial administrations and transitions and an adjunct professor at the tech school of business at dartmouth. In 2021, he served in the biden administration, ceo of the u. S. International development corporation. Margaret previously served as director of the Nonprofit Center for president ial transition, where he worked for the Biden Transition Team on transition planning efforts. He also spent 12 years as managing director of the Carlyle Group and held several positions in the clinton administration. David will bring us closer very close to the present day by discussing the 2020 transition. And with that, i will turn over to dr. Stravinsky. Well, thank you all so much for being im very excited about this panel, which i had the privilege to put together. And it was really just an excuse to talk about the things that im working on and able to find people who were interested in many of the same topics. Im sure all of you recall your history textbook lesson on election of 1800, the revolution of 1800. This is usually described as the first major transfer of power, and i would like to say that that is very wrong i think its really important that we look at both the election of 1796 and 1800 and the transitions that come after as two sides to the same coin. If we look at our constitution, what it says about president ial transitions, there are some more statutes that have been written today, but how these things are supposed to go. But in 1796, there almost nothing on the page and. So every single action from how people would enter a room, how the transfer of power would take place, what would they would wear, who would be present . Everything had be crafted from scratch and. The context is really essential because in 1796, the last that most americans had witnessed was the french revolution, which was, of course, characterized by a heavy use of guillotine and running through the streets. So not a great model to follow. Ideally, everyone present, everyone aware that was participating in this situation and was acutely concerned. The fact that this was pretty much unprecedented. It had never been done. It required extraordinary care and attention and detail to make sure it right. John adams wrote in his in his letters to his wife that he was gratified and surprise that washington had shown up, that not a guarantee his presence was essential to sort of giving the stamp of approval and then he walked out of the room behind. John adams i dont know that washington had out of a room behind anyone and at least eight years, if not longer. So that entire process was one of crafting from scratch, crafting something with with really no model to follow and having to be very thoughtful and attentive about those details and everyone that was present in the room later. How remarkable it had been that one son had risen and another had set and had all been done peacefully and the nation hadnt fallen. That sounds kind of hyperbolic today because we know how it all went and we know that the nation survived. And there were many other elections, but they meant it and they were not being melodramatic at that moment. A few notes just to sort of remind us of the timing of the transition, how worked at that time, because there was no media, because there was no cnn. There were there is no decision desk. There was no Dave Wasserman saying, i have seen enough. They were not really sure what the results were going to be. John adams felt confident enough on december 30th, 1796. So several months after the elections had begun to write back to abigail saying, i believe that. I know the outcome. But he wasnt sure and he wasnt sure until he himself opened the results on february 8th. 1797 in declared himself the winner that actually left him just about a month for the actual. So the timeline i think essential there fast forward four years. Of course the result a little bit different the by the time he came around to opening the earth excuse me by the time Thomas Jefferson opened the results in 1801, it was pretty clear everyone knew that john had lost, but it wasnt clear who had actually won. And just a little of a refresher, of course, aaron burr and Thomas Jefferson were tied in that election. It took 36 ballots to select who indeed going to be the next president. And in that process, john adams, Thomas Jefferson and burr were all invited to meddle that process to try and put thumb on the scale to determine who was going to be the right person. And as these deliberations were taking, john adams invited Thomas Jefferson to a dinner at the white house. Indeed the white house at this point, because he had just moved in and they committed to one another that they would not meddle the election and they would let the house decide who was going to be the next president. It must have been a spectacular, early, awkward dinner, because at this point they hated each other and had spent months criticizing another and their supporters writing really terribly dreadful things in the newspapers. Nonetheless, they committed to this peaceful transfer of power, and it was the first transfer from one party to another. A couple of takeaways of. This of these two elections together, peaceful of power, dont just happen. They require attention and care. They require commitment to that principle. The participants 1796 and 1800 understood that. They understood how fragile these institutions were. They did not take peacefulness for granted. I think one of their greatest gifts to, the people that came after them, were that we could take it for granted, at least until 2021. So that commitment to ensuring the central piece of a democracy although i get yelled at on twitter when, i say that a democratic republic that commitment to ensuring central peace was was essential and understood by the early participants. And as i think one of the things that we have lost a bit and one of the takeaways id like to bring to our discussion. Thank you, linsey. Nice to see david. Who i talked with a lot a year ago and have not yet met in person but im happy to be here virtually with david and physically with all of you so ill talk about 1860, which i think is still the worst transition of all time, but its its close. We may we may have a spirited debate. And, you know i think the verdict is still up in the air. And after last night, you know, im troubled all over again. Thank god, there wasnt a guillotine in washington, january six. And rachel is also an expert on 1860. And she just me. I was a moderator or a year ago of a panel in which she was the expert on the 1860 transition. So may that was supposed to happen on on january six. Thats right at at the massachusetts historical society. So why was it so bad . It revealed a fatal flaw in the architecture of our system, which is that the losers of an election would accept the result. And in 1860, as in 2020, a very significant part, the population refused to elect it, but they didnt claim the election rigged. They simply left the united of america. And thats thats a simple version of what happened. But at every level. It was very, very complicated. The government slowly fell and then was rebuilt by a complete who a little over a little actually under a year before the election was so unknown to the american people. In late 1859, a book of which listed the 21 most likely people to get the republican nomination in 1860 failed to contain abraham name and that was just one of many things i discovered in a whole lot of research was really on only 13 days of lincolns train trip, the end of the transition. But in order to do all that research, i looked at what the country is like before the election. During the election, and in the very long after between the election of november six, 1860, and lincolns first inaugural of march 1861. And its just an extraordinary drama. And i learned, to my surprise how much of it was already planned. You know, its kind of akin to what were hearing on tv about january six. But how i was seriously in concerted the plan was, well before the election took place. I found an article in the richmond enquirer from december 1859 saying if a socalled black republican is elected, will simply leave the country, well take the armaments and conduct a new from richmond. And it was very similar to what actually happened and also in december 1859, lincoln gives a speech and hes, you know, an extreme outsider at this point and says if they to accept the result of a legal election, we will have deal with them as we have just dealt with john brown, because lincoln was a stickler the law and he considered it before, during and after the transition illegal to secede from from the union. So there are these two amazing dramas happening at the same time in 1860 and early 1861, the actual of the union and the rise of a political supernova who was barely known. I think we overstate his popularity after the lincolndouglas debates of 1858. But he really was an extreme outsider. There were all these very slight ways in which the doors open for him to walk through, one of which also happened in december 1859, a vote the Republican Party leadership by one vote to have the nominating convention in chicago and not in saint louis. And i think, if it had not been in chicago, lincoln probably would not have received the nomination. So he is a dark horse, he gets the nomination in may of 1860, then the campaign happens. Its an extraordinary campaign. Before the election, there were actually four people running the Democratic Party splits in half. It, too, has a sort of northsouth divide just like the entire country Stephen Douglass is the candidate of the northern Democratic Party and he violates a taboo by traveling and giving campaign speeches. So i think for the first time in American History, lincoln stays home and its clear, all observers, that he will win electoral strength in the midwest and north is such lincoln is going to win the election even before it happens. And he and he does. And then you we enter this strange twilight of for very long, difficult months in which its not clear how the United States government is going to keep it. There is a president james. Hes a weak coming in and in late 1860 hes really falling apart. Its a situation kind of the opposite of. Trump in 2020, in which a president just isnt doing, hes the schism of the country of the body politic seems to some observers to also be happening inside his actual body has facial tics and has troubles making his mind even the smallest decisions. Its a bit like wilson at the end of his his presidency and his cabinet is split also are few northerners. Theres a very southern wing. There, three cabinet members, especially who are actively involved in dismantling the United States government that is under their charge. Get ready for whatever is coming next. So the secretary of is a virginia named floyd and hes sending armaments from northern arsenals into the south. The secretary of treasury is cobb from georgia and essentially bankrupting the United States treasury and the secretary. The interior is a mississippi named jacob thompson, whos traveling around the southern of the United States, drumming up support for secession. And hes also when hes in washington, reports, putting on cabinet meetings and sending the information back to. The secessionists in South Carolina to leave the country. So its as if i mean, i dont want to overstate the comparison to 2020, but its as if theres another country ready to start and the people in the final months of the government are putting all the strength can into this new country that doesnt quite exist yet. Of course, theres a lot of activity in the south, especially in charleston, South Carolina, where they leave no doubt about their intention to secede. There is a lot of militia activity. There are people Walking Around with rifles. And interestingly, again in the 2020 context, they talk a lot about 1776. They call themselves minutemen and the gadsden flag the dont tread on me flag flown by them. I think we might as historians do a little more work to connect the very strange appropriation of the American Revolution on january six with whats also on in the south, 1860 and 61, as theyre doing the opposite of the American Revolution, theyre tearing the country apart. South carolina sends, a diplomat to washington, begin to negotiate for most favored nation status. Theyre actually for short time, south is thinking its a country unto itself called the palmetto republic. Its the seeds. December 20th, followed by mississippi alabama, georgia, louisiana and texas. So seven states have gone out of the union. By the 1st of february, which is still over a month before lincoln. Can can get to washington. And theres just a general panic feeling in washington of the social quality of the city has has evaporated. Northerners and southerners cant even go to the same parties together. There is some violence. Congressman from new york is beat up while walking home from the capital one night. But what is scariest in this winter, which henry adams whos there is a very very perceptive observer called great secession winter. What is scariest a feeling that washington is really extremely vulnerable. A military way to southern that might just come over from virginia, which is still in the union, but has a lot of hotheads who are pro, pro, south or maryland, which is also full of hotheads. Washington, d. C. Is surrounded on all sides by slave territory and without too many militias, it would have been a Pretty Simple matter to just invade the capital and take over the Capitol Building and maybe a couple other buildings and begin the operation of something that would have been very. But again, its a bit like six it would have been a continuation of the buchanan presidency. But without james buchanan, who probably would have been removed and his Vice President would have created as a kind of acting president he had actually just lost to lincoln in the 1860 election. His name is john breckinridge. Hes from kentucky he was the candidate of the south. But fortunately, two very impressive southerners up to their fellow southerners and prevent a takeover of washington from happening. And one is Winfield Scott, whos still the commander. Hes a very elderly and not very good shape physically, but hes still the commander in chief of the United States. Hes so old and infirm, he cannot sit on a horse anymore. But hes impressive. And he comes in, he surrounds capital with cannons and loudly threatens to manure. The hills. Washington of arlington, the fragments of the body of anyone who will try to take over capital and he is a virginian defending the u. S. Capitol from southerners in the crucial weeks of december and january and february and john c breckinridge, who i just mentioned, the Vice President is a lot like i mean, very, very much like mike pence. I was always by these echoes my ancient research of what was happening in 2020 and 2021. Breckinridge to preside over a counting of the electoral certificates held on february 13th, 1861, in which like on january six, the house and senate gather in the House Chamber and each states electoral certificates opened in the presence of john c breckinridge, who is the person who would have benefited most from a decision to out the results. And actually i found that the the electoral certificates themselves those were sent to his office. So he might easily have lost them or declared that they were altered or not signed or sealed all of these ways you could declare a document fraudulent. And to his eternal credit, he declared that the election was valid and in reading newspaper accounts i found that there were angry mobs of people chanting the u. S. Capitol on day of the counting of the electoral certificates. So exactly january six. But the key difference, Winfield Scott was there with his cannons and he wouldnt let anyone in. So the election came off as it should have and as that election happened, lincoln already en route and. The premise of my book is that the whole thing was hanging by a very slender thread. But on the train he gained strength just act of coming in to washington, which had been very difficult for earlier president s and one of the reasons William Henry harrison may have died so soon after becoming president is the trip came through a lot of snow and rain. He just seemed sick by the time he got washington. But with lincoln its kind of the opposite. The train moves fast. He can speak to large audiences. He finds his footing. In a way, it is the campaign he never had. He stayed at home in summer during the campaign, but on the train coming in, he finds his voice, his large size is impressive to people and he seems to get a little bigger every day as the south seems to get a little smaller in a crucial day is 22nd. George washington birthday word lincoln gives a beautiful history loving speech of taking back the American Revolution and saying what it really was about, about the declaration of independence and the promise of equality in jefferson davis, whos already the president of the confederate states, does nothing to remember the americans. So Current Events are a big deal in transition. But choosing what you remember from earlier history is also pretty potent politics. And lincoln did that well. Oh, i think im supposed to press. Press this year. Yes. They push right. Its great to here thank you to lindsay for organizing this panel. Im going to try to talk briefly about the election 1876, but anyone who knows anything about the election of 1876 knows how impossible that is, because it was an incredibly complicated and difficult election and transition. But im i want to sort of make three broader points about this election in how it relates to sort of our modern understanding of elections and and electoral transitions, but also in what made this election different and unique in some ways because the context of of partizanship and how partizanship w