The economy. And we have 3 breaths that watchers with us here on to the point to help us penetrate the fog emanating from london it works for the irish times and she says Boris Johnson and his breakfast brothers have paralyzed europe for 3 years now there is a huge departure has become a deal or no deal game show but it can always get worse and it will. And its a pleasure to welcome john worse he is a british blogger living here in berlin he says a general election before christmas is now Boris Johnsons only way out of his selfinflicted maps. And were very happy to have ventilation from grade 0 with us she works for the british magazine the economist and she says m. P. s are kicking the can down the road which means it is less and less likely alright. And the money. So derek you say that johnson and his brothers in your words have paralyzed europe but arent we in fact seeing at least a little bit of movement now at least there has been Agreement Agreement on a deal which in fact is something to reset may never achieved it has been technically an preliminary agreement i mean its tiny steps forward but there could easily be more steps back and weve been doing this are very long time its a signal of just how poisonous the british political system is now that the parliament doesnt trust its own Prime Minister they dont trust him that they will agree to this and they have double crossed the more he will be double crossed by his brags the tears the hard bags hears and they will have a no deal breaks it so its a sign of how bad things are that this is all they could do this week and we dont know whats coming so yes its progress if you want but from a very low base so the parliamentarians ventilating are asking for more influenced more details more time you say that amounts to kicking the can down the road but isnt it pretty understandable that they have lets say woken up out of their stupor and are actually making some demands given the magnitude of whats happening its absolutely understandable because its a very complex undertaking they have to read through hundreds of pages of more than 100 pages of very detailed very complex stuff and you cant do that in a few days even though the Prime Minister tries to get them to do that by the end of the month so it is absolutely understandable the only thing is of course if you do then ask for yet another extension that again creates uncertainty and the possibility of obstacles or problems which is of course why for us johnson didnt kept insisting no we have to leave by the 31st of october which increasingly looks like ian unfeasable so john you say a general election could wind up being Boris Johnsons only way out explain that to us if you would because in fact he does have approval on this deal why would he was. To reopen it so to speak essentially because the only good approval because he put the parliament terence will potentially put the problem terence under enormous pressure they didnt actually really know this was in the steel so its basically give me this deal now and what the palm towns are said is i want a minute we need more time to analyze this and when they start looking into it they see details with regard to all of the different aspects the economic relationship the Northern Ireland border where they have problems and ultimately that 330 politicians that Boris Johnson had back in his deal he would whittle down that will go lower and lower as the weeks go by and Boris Johnson is understood that so if he says ok lets risk a general election ill go into the general election promising breaks it and hopefully come back with a majority so ultimately it would be a gamble but that way he might increase the number of conservative members of parliament and then be able to get a much larger majority to make sure that his brakes it is secure so much talk a little bit about the implications of an election in a moment but 1st let us ourselves explore a little bit of what this deal does contain so its done just mentioned ireland especially Northern Ireland a major sticking point. P. Party that used to be friends of the tories saying its been sold out can you just briefly tell us derek what exactly is the agreement now on ireland is it workable and is it going to be acceptable in the end if theres a compromise on both sides a Northern Ireland in future will be sort of in between the e. U. And the u. K. It will be officially part legally part of the u. K. Customs union so if you k. Does deals with the us it can profit from that but theres a back door in the back door well keep the border between Northern Ireland and the republic which is staying in the open so basically if you were to be positive about it they have the best of all possible worlds even membership on officially pragmatically on a day to day basis travelling over back across the open border but they also have access to these wonderful new Global Britain trade deals of london will be agreeing so they got the. Pos words both to the people in northern onto a lot of the queen they dont want to be they dont want special treatment they just want to be as good to you you know you can citizens anyone else and they think that as time goes on and the trade differences between you can you get bigger the gap between northern are than the rest of the u. K. Will become great bigger and then there was sort of on the slippery slope towards united on which they want to avoid literally lets talk a little bit about timing as we said johnson had sworn he would leave the e. U. By october 31st but now he submitted this very very ambivalent request to the e. U. For an extension take us through that if you would well bar a strong sense that he had while the die in a ditch and then then that leaves the later than october 31st now he snogged that he may be but you know that what he did is something very unusual he sent because by little by the fed act he was very quiet to offer for an extension so he sent that letter demanding an extension but without signing it and probably without putting a stop on the letter maybe even smiled at me a little bit and then he sent another letter which he sayd where he says well you know im actually against the extension which was of course playing to his base that was all part of his posturing and you know he said great theatrical thea to make it so thats what it is skew know he he will need an extension its impossible to get it through by the end of the month but because he promised he wouldnt do that to you he does this whole charade of not signing the letter and pretending you know hes doing something hes obliged to do because its and nice impose it on him so it seems the ball is now in Brussels Court and from what were hearing Decision Makers there are torn between frustration and the fervent desire to ensure an orderly withdrawal lets go now to w. s Brussels Bureau chief max huffman. Hi max. Hope you can hear and see yes we can you tell me 1st of all what is the mood in brussels are people there basically saying we have just got to get this thing over well 1st of all the mood is that the ball is not at all in the court of the European Union but they still feel they need guidance by Boris Johnson whats the plan because as you know the braggs a deal is on ice even the break that the withdrawal bill which is the legislation behind the deal is on ice at the moment and Boris Johnson has always said if there is an extension that he will pull that bill and he will call for snap elections so does he really want to do that how much time would he need to do that if not he still wants to pass the deal how long will it take him to get it through the u. K. House of commons if at all and the thinking here is if we know how long he needs to do that then well give him that maybe 5 days extra and then theyll have the time he needs but so far no signals like that from the u. K. So there is frustration about that and you know its been going on for 3 and a half years its no miracle that many here just want to get it over with but with a deal so whats your guess where this is how this is going to play out when will we have a decision out of brussels and what kind of timeframe do you think will then be talking about you ambassadors met wednesday and it appeared that in the room they were all in favor of an extension the question is just how long the french want to short technical extension maybe even 3 to 4 weeks and countries like germany say give them the extension they asked for which is until the 31st of january they will meet again on friday and might get a decision there what they want to avoid at all costs is another summit another brags that summit that gives even more attention to Boris Johnson next off month thank you very much for being with us. So lets pick up on that john and come back to this general election idea that you had mentioned in your Opening Statement now Boris Johnson it said if in fact its a long extension he will maybe want to go through with a general election but apparently his party is very divided so whats your assessment 1st of all on where the tories stand and then were going to talk a little bit about labor so basically the conservative party thinks it could win a general election its 10 Percentage Points ahead of the labor party in the opinion polls Boris Johnson is more popular than Jeremy Colvin the Labor Party Leader but the conservatism nervous because they were also 10 pin points ahead in the opinion polls back in 2017 and look what happened there because jeremy tobin course up then weve to resume a bit then conservative leader is also the case that many conservatives want to get brakes it done and say that get prices and 1st and then have a general election because the population will infanticide having managed to get britain out of the European Union because there is that gentleman waiting in the wings knowledge will for all of the worry well known member of the European Parliament who will come roaring back he will essentially say this brics deal that Boris Johnson is negotiated thats not a real bright sit we want a real and radical brights it out and out now some fears that he would new support to the brics policy and that might allow opposition parties in and so thats the reason for the nervousness winter is also coming and no one really likes doing election campaigns in november and december when its rainy and cold and unpleasant and that might also mean that election turnout may also be down so it would be a very very strange election but ultimately only ballance i still think the conservatives will go for that because they see the weakness of the labor party and where does labor play out in all of this we heard now that Jeremy Corbyn is saying yes he might want to go on a go ahead with a general election what would likely be the result. Its for labor i think it could be disastrous he seems to be getting into the detail of that with just days nobody wants to hear any detail any more its a binary decision brags that now yes no and hes saying this deal that has been negotiated is worse than trees amazed that it would undermine workers rights and so on in the u. K. Because britain might want to sort of undercut the rest of the European Union and becomes a competitive singapore in the thames but this is hes getting into detail at the end of the day people trust german core and i think the answer is really no and theres been this terribly damaging thing about the summit but on the summit as within the Labor Party Labor partys been consuming itself i mean it almost doesnt need an Opposition Party like the tories its fighting itself i dont really know how to try to a proposition labor is at the moment this leader but of course thats for the bridge voters to decide that labor but now has a relatively clear position it says it wants a 2nd year referendum its taken labor 3 years to come to a relatively clear position so ultimately if you want britain to remain in the European Union you can have relatively safely vote for either labor all the little democrats or the greens always cultures National Party whichever might have the best chance in the constituency in which you live that might save them but a 2nd referendum 2 years ago perhaps by the fence enthusiasm at this stage even friends of mine who want to say in the European Union they say even they are saying get frags it done which is a classic tory populists expression clearly the outcome of any vote would depend on Public Opinion and as as were hearing opinion in britain is increasingly polarized lets hear the voices some of those who went onto the streets just this past week to speak out. A bit abrasive a lot im always going on and. We dont want people in. The majority as we operate in. A lot of these are terrible deal for the country and its a terrible deal for the poorest people in the country. As a bridge here im disgusted with those delays. Bush wants to push through for. A way that we can have a say on a just for straightness road race are great people to be going to close out or for which of course its not the way were through fall through to score political toward. The battle lines are drawn to what do is to be joined to britain want. Lets get ventilating to tell us that what the majority in britain want and given the level of polarization that we see there would a new election resolve anything at all. Well it would give Boris Johnson probably a far a mandate because remember hes not elected hes never been elected to the post of Prime Minister and at the moment the mood in the country seems to be that seems to be that the majority that he would get a majority if you will have elections tomorrow so hes of course keen on that because it would strengthen him and strengthen his hold on paul. And if he did get a majority is there any chance that he would back out of this deal that the European Research group the hard line breaks of 2 years possibly would gain more influence that they could use to push through a kind of a no deal solution would you is there any chance wed see some kind of radical Development Like that i think thats unlikely because although its not a good idea in the bars johnson is afraid and hes worried about the chaos that could ensue with a new direction hes hes intelligent enough and pragmatic enough to know how dangerous it is and they could have not quite a civil war but i mean really chaotic scenes in britain so hes very keen to avoid at all this grandstanding and saying you know rather die that it only all the stuff that hes been saying was just to apply more pressure order to get a deal done he always wanted an agreement im im quite certain of that derek. We talked about the majority of the and what they want in britain but. Where do people in scotland and ireland stand it has often been said that one of the terrible side effects of brechts it could be essentially breaking apart the United Kingdom do you think that is where were heading what are people in ireland in scotland saying now you know what people in ireland were you know theres no good breaks it but of all the breaks the deal is this is this is fine we just agree on this what was just the current break the deal because the primary achievement of the Irish Government in dublin was no border that the status quo for the last 20 years was preserved but theres a big asterisk beside that and that asterisk is that all this technical stuff of trade and collecting tyrus and in Northern Ireland we actually dont know how trade will work between the British Isles and future so theres a big if when will this actually work and on the other hand people unarmed are wondering eventually people annoying i would realise have gotten the court quite a sweetheart deal if it works but then the question is why didnt the scots get a move already seen those coming out and so so the only intend to love and intended consequences could be that we kept the border open between Northern Ireland on the republic but what happens if scotland gets up some momentum and this is like the steroids that the nationalists in scotland have been needed to break away so you know we could have saved our the broken of the u. K. On our neighbor island so yeah knows where its going. Next to john there is a palpable sense longing for resolution we heard max say and theres a thats the case in brussels we heard people in that film talking about their wish for yes resolution yet experts are saying that even if a brecks it deal goes through lets say by the end of the year or early next year there will still then be another chapter of wrangling of uncertainty surrounding trade because. Britain will then have to very quickly negotiate new bilateral trade agreements with the e. U. Its biggest trading partner and with its long 4 partner the us is that process truly going to be as difficult and painful as what weve seen along the brics that it will probably be even worse although maybe it wont have quite the kind of public sort of debate its going to be much more time consuming and much more complex than what weve seen so far and the idea should be that the framework for that deal should even be in place by the end of 2020 so just over 12 months from now which is impossible to achieve so ultimately we might get over this deadline now but weve got