Aspiring to be a nuclear power. Joe biden swallowing his pride in a controversial visit to saudi arabia, which just 3 years ago, he called a pariah. So on to the point, were asking new alliances in troubled times. Is it anything goes for by then put in with hello and welcome to to the point. Its a pleasure to greet our guest, susanna cova is Foreign Correspondent for the german news magazine. Dish beagle. And its a pleasure to welcome tyson barker. Hes an expert on foreign and Transatlantic Relations and geo politics at the German Council on foreign relations. D, g, a. P, and rica ham uncovers business and economics for the len based daily. The tats, tyson barker, many a commentators referred to by the se, fist bump with saudi arabias crown prince as nothing less than a cow. Will it succeed in actually reviving the u. S. Saudi alliance and to delivering the benefits. Bidens looking for the optics were terrible optics were, you know, reverberated through congress through washington through the United States. But the substance of the meeting it with the g. C. C plus 3 were quite successful and i think that they show the embryonic beginnings of a new coming together between saudi arabia and United States in some areas where its quite important for, for the region. How do you measure success in that case . Or there are some, there are some, you know, baby steps deliverables for example, the decision to have is really overflight rights to saudi arabia. The flight from a, from israel to jetta is a 1st time a flight and that is opening up a new kind of soft accession of saudi arabia to the abraham courts. This normalization accord, but that the trumpet ministration agreed to with several arab states to normalize relations with israel. Thats one another is a, the china is trying to play an increasing role in the middle east, through the sale of technology, particularly walkways fi, g technology, and the decision by a saudi arabia to see, to the open ran alliance. And finally, the issue of the yemen. Of weapons draw down the standstill in yemen. Starts to open up the possibility for closer security, the relationship between the United States and saudi arabia, because that is a big Sticking Point for congress. And theres one element, tyson didnt stress their susanna, but many people say its the element that this visit was all about. Namely, oil in the beginning of this war, there was a lot of talk in the west about shared values and the need to right for western values have geo politics and resources now eclipsed values. And i mean, eclipse, i would say that they would go far beyond what, whats, whats happening. And before that, i mean there, they have been 70 something years of very close relations between saudi arabia and to and, and the u. S. And the was very much about oil, which was extremely much about my oil, but also about regional influence. It was also about controlling iran. It was also about a business. I mean, saudi arabia is such a heavy vase in that region that you cannot ignore it. And i think there was a hope, a, i mean, obviously in the, in the, by that administration maybe also are obviously in the, in the obama administration. That you could refrain from that very difficult relationship. Because certainly as or youre a bit as not only exporting oil, its also exporting a very extreme aversion of islam which has her had a lot of very bad repercussions. And they were of the opinion that they could be more independent of that. And now it turns out, and it actually thou, turns out in particular, with the ukraine war that you need, you need the, a cooperation, a Good Corporation with saudi arabia, for many reasons, starting with her. If the, if the Nuclear Agreement with iran is not, is not be able to cannot be revived, which has a lot of a lot of consequences and it looks like read that like that. Then about oil prices. Yes, there is not so much there is not. So much a that a so youre a big can do now to, to deliver more oil, which has a lot of reasons. But at the end of the day, certainly, i mean, opec is sitting on a presiding over over the whole system of, of, of oil deliveries. So its a very important meeting, i think. And i want to come back to that point, but lets just take a look at the memorandum that was signed by iran and russia because on his own trip to the middle east, put in was also talking about oil. And iran is now offering a welcome market will, in fact, this stronger relationship between russia, iran and turkey that was on show there at the summit in tehran. Will that delivered the benefits that this very isolated russian president needs . Well, you know, it was very interesting to see that in fact, the rows are now reversed because now iran is the strong partner. Its no longer russia. And that is, of course, who you mediating for russia. And the same thing will happen with china. Is china, again, is much stronger than russia. So what you could see there is that russia is losing its status as a superpower, because it exhausts itself in the ukraine. It is not going to in this will, it is, will be a post date of afterwards. And that was on show in, at this meeting. Now, looking at turkey, i think that for ad won a, the u. S. In fact, is more important than russia. The whole safety of turkey basis. Let him in the end on the support of the United States. But of course, you know, what to add on, tries to do is to somehow it and be an independent power between russia and in the United States to get some leverage points there. And of course, he wanted to have an agreement on north syria because he wants to evade there. But that is something that iran and russia wont agree to. And i want to pick up on exactly that point in just a moment. But 1st, lets take a closer look at biden and put in middle eastern speed, dating in search of new and distinctly unholy alliances. For those 2 fists would, harold, a new era between the u. S. And saudi arabia, relations between the 2 countries have long been at an all time low. Ever since saudi arabia had saudi journalist antecedent jamal co shogi murdered. Now the turn around, let me state clearly the United States is going to remain active, engage partner in the middle east. But rather than concrete results, the u. S. President was only given a vague promise by saudi arabia to increase Oil Production in the future. Significantly more harmonious, at least outwardly, was the tripartite meeting of russia, iran and turkey in tehran. Its main focus was syria, where all 3 countries are engaged in war. Also discussed on the sidelines a possible iranian drone delivery to russia and how to handle sanctions for president put in the meeting, was above all a message to you as President Biden and the west. Russia is also engaged in this region potent or biden, who has the upper hand and the middle east. Tyson, what would you say to that question in the face of the u. S. Chaotic departure from afghanistan in the face of what is often perceived as us indifference in the face of the fighting and syria. Does anybody really believe bidens pro says to remain as he says and engage partner . Well, i think that, you know, these relationships are very deep. The relationship the United States has with israel, with egypt, with saudi arabia, with the gulf states has clearly predated biden. And is something that has many, many tenants within the political system, including in congress. There are different or sensitive points, different, also the private sector. So i think that this is something that is a cautious erm. Erm nearing a cautious intensification of engagement and it is a situation that is driven by events thats obvious. You know, the United States also for its domestic constituencies, needs to be showing that its doing something to alleviate oil and gas prices also in the United States. So optically that is part of the reason why he went to saudi arabia is to say to the american people, look, im doing this for, for a, this is a part of Foreign Policy for the middle class im trying to deliver at home, but its gonna take time for those kind of policies to yield dividends says, and how do you see it . Would you say as, as a tyson does, that there are reasons to believe that the u. S. Still has a strong relationship with countries in the middle east, or could this perceived pout how to saudi arabia actually heard it, particularly in the eyes of strategic rivals and adversaries. Its definitely so that saudi arabia has a close, has close ties with, with, with the u. S still, theyre very much dependent on a weapons and deliveries and their contracts long running contracts. I mean there is no way that saudi arabia could say, we dont want to have anything to do with us any longer, or vice versa. So, so its more about strategic are demonstrate as a demonstration of a strategic move. The u. S. Is making here. They want to show to iran, to russia. Ah, we are still in, we are still having a leverage here on the it was also a sign that the times when i saw your eva was isolated because of the murder of jamaica. Georgie, that this, this chapter is closed now. So, so, but this has a price and the price is, im showing showing that this close cover cooperation is still in place. And so its a deal. I mean, they also get quite a, quite a leeway now to work on their issues with iran. At the same time. Saudi arabia is interested and americas interested to keep the cease fire in yemen. And, and all this is a, its, its a package. Its a big package. And what, what tyson does it just mentioned about the app or have records that the cooperation with israel, which is a new alliance which is bill has, which is going to be built up. I mean, is a shift which they demonstrate. So we can, if its a package or the benefits are going to outweigh the cost in terms of the loss of a loss of that appearance of values and, and morally guided Foreign Policy that biden had sworn to put in place. Well, as tyson said, i think the main point was that a bind wanted to bring down the oil prices and that might work. But the problem is that the price is the crude oil. Im not the main problem because the price of the crude oil are not higher than they were, lets say in 2011. The problem is that you have a shortage of reason finding capacity. And so the oil is not less expensive. The kudos is not that expensive, but a diesel and a gas line, a very, very expensive now, and this will not change because then all right, no refining capacities left. So, you know, in of a, the problem for buying could be that now everyone in the United States is hoping that the gas prices will go down. And then all of these condo, i was, was somehow realize that for some reason its still very expensive air. And so go to the petrol station. So that might be a problem. Those very high gasoline prices, and ive just come from the u. S. I cannot remember at any time in my life paying these kind of prices at the pump. They are of course, imperiled. The chat is not only of joe biden, but also have his party in the upcoming mid term elections and possibly in the president ial election in 2024. Do you really expect that that voters will see this trip to the middle east as having a significant effect . That wasnt my impression listening to us media . Well, the 1st point is the gas prices have been starting to come down slightly, but consistently in the United States. The 2nd thing is that inflation is not only the novel and policy issue in washington and also for the biden administration, but also the number one Foreign Policy issue for washington. And the, and the narrative. The way that biden has, the administration has tried to frame it, is in terms of this war that russias war on ukraine has created all sorts of a supply bottlenecks that are driving up prices in all sorts of areas. Fuel gas, it early energy of food, et cetera, commodities, and anything that he can be doing that will substantively or optic optically look like its working against that will be helpful. But i dont know if itll change the outcome of the midterms. This is analysts come back to the summit in iran, put in our to one and iranian president ra easy. Were doing their best to present a united front, but werent there very real divisions, especially on syria . Absolutely. I mean, actually you have a lot of very current addictive interests. But on the other hand, they have also a couple of common things. Like for instance they, they, they see a chance to, to change the regional order or even the global order in the world. And thats something which is unifying them. And you have also, i mean, everybody has to have different interests. Now, iran in russia were on one side in syria and turkey was on the other side. Turkey is supporting ukraine with the delivery of drones, which would have been extremely successful and very badly. On the other hand, her aragon is one to wants to make himself indispensable when it comes to, to mediate between ukraine and, and russia. So a very, a very climate mover have to say. And so what, what, what is unifying them at the moment is stronger than what is, what is, what were dividing them, what is dividing them. And so, and, and so i think, i think right now its a, its a demonstration of everybody is doing his best to look as powerful as possible. And you said, dividing them or re can nonetheless, this meeting in tehran definitely sent a very clear message to the world. Could we, in some sense, say that its western sanctions themselves that are in me battling a new form of geo politics are not only in terms of this russian, iranian a turkish nexus. But of course, also russia, china, which will have blow back for the west. Well, of course sir, were somehow returning to an era that we thought was over for ever, because now we have again, this block system. On the one hand, we have the rest, the rest and democratic ag estates. And on the other hand, we have china and russia who forming in the lines and somehow the biggest dictatorships they on earth. And now the interesting thing is that this conflict of systems is being framed is a conflict between democracies and dictatorships. And these dictatorships are framed as offering security and stability, which in fact they dont offer because thats what russia shows when attacking the ukraine, that it is a very unstable country. But anyway, what i really found interesting about this whole meeting is that it is really it change that now its iran, offering jones to russia because you know, rush, i was always economically very poor country. But it was a military superpower. And now iran, which is somehow not a very important country, it off as a Deadly Weapons to a military superpower. And that really shows how weak russia has become. That is, is now dependent on countries like iran. You not done, we dont know right now whether this deal will come through. But nonetheless, talking about it is already a deadly blow for russia and put in the travels to iran and smile all the time. I mean, thats us really quick, just crazy. Lets also take a look at the state of the russian economy. The west has in fact heaped sanctions on bratia, yet his Energy Prices sore and supplies of ghast window many here in europe. Fear that these measures are hurting the west more than putin from burgers to porsches the list of products that can no longer be sold in russia is long. President putin is now complaining about an economic little clique and by the west, admitting that the sanctions are affecting russia. As a result, the russian g. D. P is expected to fall by 10 percent in 2022. Inflation is currently at 17 percent, and Industrial Production has fallen by 8 percent. But many of the sanctions are also affecting germany and other western countries. Food and Energy Prices are skyrocketing. Many consumers are already complaining about the high prices. Some Economic Experts say that the World Economy might be in danger. The russian president has managed to find new buyers for many of his Raw Materials faster than expected, including in india and china. And expensive western products, such as luxury cars are easily imported through other countries like turkmenistan or kazakstan with its sanctions. Well, the west harm itself more than russia in the end. And let me put that question right to rico, coupled with a question that arose as i was reading a very interesting article in the magazine published by spiegel magazine. This is an a rights for the historian nicholas molder, said they are that if you want to wage economic war, you must put your economy on a war footing. Did the west fail to remember that lesson as it began applying sections . Well perhaps, but you have to distinguish 2 things. Those sanctions that v a decided on not to export any High Technology to russia or not to to serve the airplanes is not hurting the best at all. Because, you know, russia was very unimportant when it came to exports at the russian and the german exports to russia were only 2. 5 percent of all the exports germany has. So that was really a minor point. But of course, russia can hurt us by just not exporting oil or gas, and thats what they are doing. So, but that is something you could never ever have prevented. Because once the rest starts to support the ukraine with weapons, which i find that we should do that, then of course, it was obvious that the russia would retaliate rate by using its all and its gas as a weapon by itself. So there was no possibility to somehow prevent russian to use its energy as a weapon. But of course, that is something that europe didnt really provide for, but i think thats just because, you know, no one counted on having this wall to the february 24th. Everyones thought it impossible that russia would attack the ukraine. And now of course, is it up starts to adapt to this situation. But in the end, you know, what we have to do is to save energy, its up this. So lets talk about saving energy in the face of a lot of speculation. Susanna that russia would now completely cut off gas through the north stream one gas pipeline to europe. In fact, it is now flowing again. Is this just a roofs on proteins part to keep europe nice and dependent on russian gas . Or do you think