On the other hand, to minimize the consequences, and that it could be some kind of strike, and it is not excluded that it is not from the territory of iran, but by the hands of these groups from iraq, who are quick to do everything, because in syria, too, assad does not really want that from his territory this blow was inflicted on the territories annexed by israel. And they will appeal that this strike was not on the territory of israel, actually, but on the dutch heights, that it was annexed the territory, or along the western coast, in the part that is annexed, that it is not a territory recognized by the world, well, or in the gas sector, yes, and well, there are many signals, iran is very strong now. International pressure, both from the United States and its arab neighbors, who are persuading him not to inflict it, not to turn the middle east into the arena of a major war. See, on thursday , the United States embassy in israel announced that United StatesGovernment Employees and family members will be barred from any personal travel abroad central israel, jerusalem and bersheva until further notice. There was also information about restrictions on certain flights, and this reminds us of what we saw on the eve of the russian federations major invasion of ukraine, but here you are saying that you doubt that this could be any major conflict, as you you are wondering, if we are talking about levers, yes, about the possibilities of deescalation, then who can actually play a key role in this process and should we 100 reject a big war in the middle east, or are there still risks that it can flare up there, exist . Yes, of course, there is such a possibility, its just that its small, there are much more chances that it will go according to the scenario, well, such a minimization of losses to save face and thats the end of it, and look, even the ambassador of iran to the un, in fact. Offered some kind of conciliatory formula, but the problem is that inside iran the pressure on the government is increasing, they are laughing, on the one hand, the liberal forces opposed to the ayatollahs regime are ridiculing him, and on the other hand, the reactionary part is connected with the guards corps the Islamic Revolution is raging, yes, they see that this is a chance, so yes. There is still a possibility, i will not push to estimate in percentages, but i do not give more than 25, for example, well, this is a very, very rough estimate, who something can affect something, well, you see, israel said that if the people and the infrastructure are not harmed, relatively speaking, if the iranians warn what, when and where they will shoot in order for israel to shoot it down, iran will declare that it has accomplished its mission. Dances dances with tambourines about our great revenge, even if it is with the territory of iran itself, israel said that it will not respond, uh, on the other hand, if damage is caused, if people die, or if there is damage to buildings or infrastructure, the israelis threaten to strike iran, well, all sides leave such halfsteps on. Back done, who can help . Well, the qataris, as always, who are the main negotiators who are now knocking on all the doors in iran, amman, qatar and. Iraq, the Iraqi Government these are the countries that maintain constant communication with and through the government and the corps in iran everyone is going signals, although i am sure that now there is a direct telephone line between the white house, well, between the americans and the iranians, but from zsan, this yellow board, british, says that the israelis can, that they are preparing, they can just strike the Nuclear Plants in iran, if they see that, for example, the iranians there want to take revenge on them for the death of general quiru, last week it was, yes, of course, they always had these plans, are they ready to strike now, because the Nuclear Plants, its not just half a step forward or back, i dont think, the point is that americans are not smaller. The consequences of this Mutual Exchange of blows, and it is not for nothing that now the commanders of this central committee, well, this is a military command that is responsible for the region from afghanistan to egypt, now in israel, not for that. Of course in order to say that we will protect and coordinate efforts, whoever has the means, first of all air defense, but in order to prevent the israelis from taking such a step as an attack on bushehr, well, on Nuclear Power plants, for example, and on the other hand, this the chance is not at bushehr, but at the places where the Iranian Nuclear project is being made, although it is far underground, so i dont know how effective such strikes can be. If we talk about the latest news, which concerns the alleged peace plan from erdogan, who already denies that it was erdogans plan, that it was most likely the plan of putin and russia, but under the sauce of the alleged offer of turkey, this whole thing was presented in the media. Well, yesterday there was also a lot of analysis about this so called peace plan, in which it is assumed what. Its like the war is supposed to freeze on those borders that are basically the front lines now, theres supposed to be a referendum in the 40th year and the people are supposed to decide, yeah, which country they want to join or which country they want to stay in, well in short , these are some very irrational proposals, in our opinion, which ukraine clearly does not need to agree to, because in fact. It will simply continue this conflict in 2040, if not sooner, why, how you think, now this peaceful, socalled plan got into the media, what was it calculated for, well, these are russian plans, only here there is really no point at all, and the russians want to fix the profit, there is such an exchange term, yes, when you bought shares at a cheap price, they grew, grew, and then the moment comes. When the owner of such shares says that s it, we fix the profit, sell, take the money, and this is a test of who agrees to what, and who will protest against which point, well, thats evidence of that , that they should even leave our south under control, well, ideally they should they want this ukraine, but for. But they pretend that they are ready for a suspension in order to record a profit, so that we recognize the loss of peoples territory. Mr. Serhiy, thank you for your answers, thank you for the conversation, and for participating in our broadcast. Serhii danilov, Deputy Director of the middle Eastern Studies center, was with us. If you sometimes missed parts of our conversations that interest you, you can always catch up because we have youtube. And there are all the broadcasts and special projects, there are clippings of the most important and most interesting, all this can be found there, so we encourage you to join, subscribe to our page, watch, listen, comment, because we are interested in your thoughts, stay with us, now we will have a short break, then we will come back and have another important and interesting guest, see the press. The new metrolux mattress is made in ukraine. With love for ukrainians. Matrolux is one of the largest manufacturers of orthopedic mattresses and furniture. Order the camel orthopedic mattress right now. Together with the mattress you you get a 5year warranty and hundreds of nights of great sleep. Dial the number you see at the bottom of the screen, and our consultants will help you choose the right size for your bed. This springless orthopedic mattress perfectly adapts to the shape and weight of your body. And thats not all. One of. 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Yesterday, the peoples deputies finally passed the bill on strengthening mobilization, which was considered in the committees for a very, very long time, yes, but in the end , this bill. During these three months of consideration, it almost did not change in its essence, it literally had several provisions removed there , but in general , all the things that were offered from the very beginning remained there. Pavlo kishkar, chief of staff, deputy Battalion Commander of the armed forces of ukraine, major, head of the project office accelero and the ministry of defense, the peoples deputy of ukraine of the eighth convocation is already in touch with us, mr. Pavle, congratulations, congratulations, studio, congratulations ukraine. Well, the peoples elected representatives voted on the draft law on strengthening mobilization, and in fact now in society there are many different opinions about the wording of this law, some say that this draft law was as unconstitutional as possible, on the other hand, many military personnel say, on the contrary, that this draft law was as loyal as possible and it was necessary to prescribe stricter norms. What is your personal opinion about the draft law that was actually yesterday. Was not voted, thank you for the urgent issues that are of interest to the whole society, in fact, not only the military, the adoption of the law is true, but. It is a pity that this moment was not taken advantage of and the philosophy of mobilization as such was not changed, we are again calling people to the soviet the army, we again call them into the unknown, we again cannot answer them how long they will serve, we ask them to go to the army, and immediately they spit on our souls and say that you are good for nothing influence, your attitudes, your appeals, your beliefs are worth nothing, fight with who we are, who. Who we will give you, if this is the approach, give these powers down to the middle and senior commanders, and we will conduct the selection of people ourselves, we will convince ourselves and find those who can perform it qualitatively, we dont need the tsk for this, we dont need a bunch of Personnel Centers above us, give us our people who we can convince to join the army, therefore directly answering your. Question, we still have a negative view of this process, the process unsettled, even more issues regarding reservations, which should be canceled altogether, or set deadlines for both business and state institutions, to carry out the replacement of people, that is , men who are subject to mobilization, to women and men who are not subject to mobilization, and the state, state institutions state Enterprises Must start with themselves, the first to be mobilized are men who have already taken an oath to the state, the ministry of internal affairs, the ministry of emergency situations, i dont know, all structures of state authorities, the military, civil administrations, all of them, then state enterprises, normal terms should be determined for carrying out this rotation, so that the quality of the work of these enterprises and state bodies. Power did not fall, but all men who are subject to mobilization must enter the army from state enterprises and state authorities in one and a half to two years, this is my position, sorry, it may be quite harsh, but we can fight, i am developing the direction of technical mobilization in the army, we try to do everything, but without people it is quite difficult to fight such an enemy. Mr. Pavle, you they talked about mobile phones. Do all these things that you say, hear, also apply to recruiting, does recruiting actually show itself well, does this process manage to attract motivated people, and exactly where you expect, exactly in the units where they knock, where they come forward and say that they can be the most effective there, im. A midlevel commander, i tell all conscripts that if the commander promised you that hes a potra, that youll get to him, he or something knows what i dont know or i am deliberately deceiving you, i cannot guarantee a person who goes for mobilization that he will get into my unit, yesterday is proof of that, i could not take any of my people whom i myself called to join the army, i could not. Take them for relation, according to the document to the unit, unfortunately, this procedure, which existed at the beginning of the war, has been leveled, and we are again calling people into the unknown, engineers who are worth some money, their training, who should perform intellectual work, somehow sent to completely other units, wherever their knowledge, skills and abilities are not needed at all, and this is, well, as a minimum. Impractical, the army, if it is not voluntary, then it cannot fight for democracy, for democratic rights, for human rights, it somehow becomes an army of tyrants , therefore, there is another option than a radical change of the mobilization system, replacing it with highquality recruiting, including allowing us, as a middle ranking commander, to carry out this mobilization or this recruitment. Direct, indirect, we, we will perform the task, as you took this one from us the function, what exactly is, well, i only have emotions, what exactly is the cancellation or cancellation of these capabilities, you mentioned that at the beginning of the fullscale invasion this opportunity was there, and now it will not be, can you elaborate specifically on what it is about, yes, todays procedure requires a military serviceman to undergo a posthoc examination. It is in the Territorial Center of recruitment, the socalled basic military training, which i can also conduct on my own resources and on my own in my military unit. Qualitatively and a person falls behind the current procedure is necessarily to the training center, from where he does not return to me afterwards, it has been like this for a long time, well, maybe, lets repeat it again, the procedure today is like this, it is mandatory to go through the training center, at the beginning of the war this procedure did not exist, i came to the tsc with an attitude towards a person and his people took this person to his unit, and this person could already on the spot. To undergo training, and i further trained her, yes, and i further trained her in basic military training, by those people who had already fought with me, and taught her specialization, directly, whether she is an operator of drones, whether she is an operator of an Automated System or a communicator, she was trained by me according to the direction, according to her specialty, at the moment this procedure is impossible, i cannot do that, i, as a middleranking commander, cannot i can for. Asks for people, unfortunately, you emphasize quality recruiting, and we understand that this is a completely different process from mobilization, and do you already have i will conduct this recruitment myself, i myself am interested, i have more than a hundred people vacancies, i and people from the 14th years, who fought with me, cannot join the army now, i cant guarantee anything, they wont end up somewhere else before like. Commanders, do it, simplify this procedure, youll immediately see who is an effective commander, who is not , release this story for the commanders, if mr. Pavle, and please allow me to ask you, but look, it is simply important, because many units are now opening separate recruiting centers, for example, in lviv there is a separate recruiting center of vovki davinci, of the Third Assault Division , and for example, if a person does not go to tcc, and goes to the recruiting center of a specific brigade. Does this also not guarantee this person that he will get into this unit . Yes, legally it is not allowed, if the volky da vinci or the third have some agreements directly with the main personnel department, then surely such a guarantee, i cannot at my level, i also wanted to ask you your position, yesterday lviv. Ludnyv the video is motivational, yes, about mobilization, and in this video, actually, if we have the opportunity to show it to our viewers, it is said that the tsc, yes, invites men of draft age to him, and each of them talks about the fact that someone is taking care of a relative with a disability, someone has a student, someone cannot go to war because of religious considerations, and actually at the end of thi