Recession because in case you didnt hear in the First Quarter, the economy contracted. 7 . I think you know the drill. You have two quarters like that you are looking at a recession. Most economists dont think were going to look at another quarter like that the present quarter will be stronger than that. Not everyone is sure. Gary says americans should be weary. Ty young says no reason to be so panicked. You know how we started off, well telegraphed, gary you say this could be a trend explain . Look the big worry is simple. Weve had seven years of 0 Interest Rates and the printing of 15 trillions of dollars to bring them down and this is all were getting . And keep in mind this number included a big inventory bill, would have been a lot worse, and you combine that with the fact that oil prices have dropped in half. If this is the best number we can get, i think theres a big worry Going Forward and i have to add one thing im watching the transports here theyre underperforming badly and have been a great telegrapher and forecaster of the future. Theyre acting horribly right now. Neil the flip side to that as you know, ty, some of the numbers weve seen at least of late improvement in employment and retail sales improvement in some, not all housing data, at least limits the possibility of a negative quarter, could be a soft quarter, not a negative quarter, what do you think . Thats right. There are positives in there, we have to be honest with ourselves. The Unemployment Rate is down, but at the same time the Labor Participation rate is at an alltime low. Consumer spending is up but not as much as we thought and not as much as last year. Income growth is up but not as much as we thought and not as much as last year. So certainly we should be concerned here and we should pay attention, i dont know if we hit the panic button just yet. Neil its never overwhelmingly convincing the negative or Positive Side within housing data itself, gary you know that better than ground zero than a lot of us in florida you could look at existing home sales new home sales a little better, you could look at pentup Construction Activity picking up steam. You could look at the number of available qualifiers for mortgages down more than we thought, but the net net, it is better than it was in the first three months of the year do you buy that . Look the First Quarter definitely had a little weather to it. I think there will be a little improvement but ive been saying for years now, i used one certain word when it comes to the economy, thats blah, blah. Every time we have a decent quarter another goes down that is not the Economic Growth that can get us going, and the main point for me is i think were on steroids and if ever Interest Rates via the Central Banks or by themselves go back to normalization i dont think this economy can stand on its own, and thats where were going to see recessions again, and again thats where i bring up the transports. They are starting to telegraph bad things forward, were going to get bad numbers in the third and fourth everybody is saying were going to get two and threes. Neil much has been made of that too, ty in the idea that it could be telegraphing something im not smart enough like gary to know when that will be that generally is a signal. Does it worry you . Well to a degree certainly neil, this report is a great example how wall street has decoupled from main street. How the market hitting new highs seemingly every day is different than whats going on in the economy and a negative report like that gives cover to the Federal Reserve to leave Interest Rates at these low levels Going Forward and to garys point as well. Weve had this experiment of government stimulus across every different government agency, trillions and trillions of dollars in debt highest debt in the history of the world and what do we have to show for it . Two years in 3 growth. The rest of it 1 1 2 and 2 growth and the rest of it negative. What do we need to get a different result other than blah, to garys point, is different policies to get growth, much like Ronald Reagan got growth through strong dollar policy. Neil guys i want to thank you both, you articulate your positions extremely well certainly better than your host here. I appreciate it. In the meantime something that confuses the bold and derelict, this cuts to the issue, Household Income how much folks are making. Do you know right now, we are doing worse than we were during the recession itself . The big one. Thats the stuff that they worry about and call this very recovery into question. Peter, what do you think . This is not a recovery its a terrible recovery. We have 7 million men unemployed and not looking for work, Household Incomes are falling. You know for most workers wages are flat, the hours are uncertain income gyrates up and down, you cant plan for the future, so why would you buy a house . Neil you could have used that argument at so many stages here, and im the first to agree with you that we are hardly off to the race but the bullish argument on both the economy and the markets is we are certainly off the mat, and that steady improvement, minor minuscule as it appears will carry out this recovery forward and make it last longer than others because of its relatively tepid pace what do you think . Look at the reagan recovery it was as long and it had numbers twice as big reagan had the economy growing at more than 4 a year he came out of recession that was deeper than the obama recession. Obama trying to sell the world on the notion his presidency has faced challenges no man faced. The reality is unemployment peaked at 8 for reagan 10 for obama. Reagan turned around and put it in the hands of private sector and the economy grew at 4. 5 a year. Mr. Obama shackled the country with regulations, mettled in social program stimulated in every way conceivable and possible, and accomplished 2. 2 growth. Neil when it comes to convention time, whether they nominate Hillary Clinton or somebody else theyll go back to the numbers in the middle of the meltdown when democrats took over the white house and point to the improvement and point to the fact the markets have doubled and whatever they will be by then and the economy is off the map, whatever it will be by then and that were a long day from the meltdown morass. You say what . I dont think theyre going to run on that. Theyll say the economy is better. Look how clinton is positioning herself, this say gender based campaign in 2008 she was running away from the fact shes a woman. Now shes saying time for a woman in the white house. The polling data says that will work. So theyre not going to run on this recovery, theyre going to say gee, wasnt this better than the bush recovery. If president bush, george w. Bush is the standard against every american president is measured Going Forward, they all win. He didnt have a successful presidency. But bill clinton was much more successful than barack obama. His growth rate was in the threes. Neil interesting, peter good seeing you my friend, thank you very much. Take care. Neil in the meantime sometimes things are based on a snapshot but the trouble with snapshots is one snap that it shot, its over. This is a snapshot that worries a lot of folks, Mortgage Rates now ticking up to six month highs and the reason why that bothers a lot of folks is that they think that all of a sudden were going to see rocketing Interest Rates. Fact of the matter is whether youre talking mortgages at 3 or 4 , maybe im showing my age. When my wife and i got our mortgage, thats what we were paying per day. Maybe im exaggerating. Perspective is in order. Housing expert says nevertheless the timing and the scare its giving people is real and palpable. What do you make of whats happening . How bad does this get in terms of the upward tick in rates . Theres a psychological threshold when we hit over to another digit. When we roll from the 3. 87 of the Freddie Mac Survey we roll over to 4 youre going to see a psychological pause, with we get out with the rhetoric we realize these are still at historical lows. Generation of sales should continue. Neil im sorry, youre an expert, i value your opinion then youre saying every time we hit a marker a level in this case lets say 4 people say whoa, they stop, be. The millennials need money and a kind Mortgage Lender to change. That but i guess what im asking is isnt all of this ultimately not so much going to be dependent on the rates, as long as they dont go up to what my wife and i experienced when we first bought during inflation. Just jobs, jobs are percolating good paying jobs and all of this is a moot point. Not just jobs income growth. We listened to the job Growth Numbers incomes are not growing at the rate Property Values are. That is the biggest challenge for the millennials. I was on set with you nar conversation. Millennials are looking at the Overall Economic position that the county is in, theyre looking at the Real Estate Market and ill tell you whats going to trump them making decisions to buy a home in this market is concern about what is the viability of our current economic value in our country . Neil david thank you, my friend, always good seeing you. So good to be with you, thank you. Neil do any of you remember the tax inversion thing, the companies that buy another company abroad and then set up domicile there headquarters there for the lower tax rate and save a ton of money . The president once fingered walgreens and all the companies cower and go back okay okay we wont do it again. Not in walgreens case, the chairman just unloaded on the president. Whoa did he ever. At book club they were asking me what youre doing now, janice. Blogging. Your blog is just pictures of you in the mirror. Its called a fashion blog todd. Well, ive been helping people save money with progressives discounts. Flo, can you get janice a job . [ laughs ] you shouldve stuck to softball i was so much better at softball than janice, dad. Wheres your wife, todd . Vacation. Discounts like homeowners multipolicy i got a discount on this ham. Ive got the meat sweats. This is good ham, diane. Paperless discounts give it a rest, flo. All yeah, flo, give it a rest. Neil you ever get the impression, when i talk to ceos off the record boy, do they give me an earful and my buddy Charlie Gasparino how much they dont like the president pointing the finger at them. But not publicly. James skinner of walgreens, remember when the president was pointing out walgreens for going overseas and trying to avoid the tax inversion thing and trying escape the responsibility to uncle sam. This guy was not going to have it. I want to read what he said. Do we have that . What he went onto say, and i think you know the drill enough, enough, enough all right. What do you think . Right, i think within a couple weeks or months, walgreens is going to be under federal investigation. Neil i thought the same thing. I thought the same thing. Every time somebody we should give them he says something about the administration they get the jamie dimon treatment. Neil or the horse head. There is a little corleon. Neil jamie dimon got a fast pass. Not even him attacking policy he championed doddfrank in particular, and when he got on his soap box too much with the administration they hit him with everything. Neil clearly coincidental what do you say . No. And heres the thing they did to jamie dimon, which is fascinating. This is the story i heard he calls up eric holders office and says i can do any day but friday. I have to be in europe or something, holders office says we can only do it friday and gets down to holders office and make him and his attorney sit and wait for three hours. Neil is that right . Thats what i heard. I believe thats right. Thats the disdain this administration has for business. Neil what about the tax inversion thing. That was a legitimate issue people were rightly ticked off. Wait a minute, not just buying a Small Company in ireland or make that their domicile and pay a much lower rate. Isnt there something more fiendish about that . No change the tax code do tax reform. Neil they wouldnt be tempted if they were doing this. If we had a different tax system, lower corporate taxes much, much less loopholes that money would be forced back here. Thats what all this is all about, and by the way, a lot of the president s friends like Warren Buffett invest in companies that do the tax shenanigans all the time. Neil you are right about that. And i would say this. Change the tax code. Change the rules. This guy is playing by the rules. Hes being attacked and pillaried but playing by the rules. Neil they did shell the merger to calm folks down. Which merger are you talking about. Neil do you know, do the ceos think twice whether theyre going to get a call from the white house. Yes theyre scared to death. Theyre always thinking about how washington is going to interpret their words, and every now and then, one of them does Something Like that and then when he does Something Like that he gets slapped down by the justice department. Neil we always get a lot of emails and breaking news do you know what we get ten times more email on . What. Neil what you think of millennials. You stirred that pot more than me. Youre the instigator here and you had some of the millennials on the other day. Very boring. Neil they think im very hot, and they dont think youre hot. They take themselves way too serious, and the only reason you have them on it gives you a chance to talk to millennial women. Neil thats a tacky thing to say true, but tacky. Hes going to be back later on. I love this guy hes kind of ticking me off. Back later on, hes one of the bitter boomers. Something were going to carry onto the new show 12 00 to 2 00, hes going to bring his milk of magnesia and say here you go. Neil unions say double the minimum wage double the minimum wage, and lo and behold they get what they want, then they crawl back and say now, about Union Operations and our friends . Can we get a carveout for that . Governor scott walker on a union double standard he says is over the top. They pushed all of this and want a special carveout for unions. The audacity and the hypocrisy. The real question that needs to be asked is what is it that we can do that is impactful . What the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. It used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. Whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, thats what id like to do. When cigarette cravings hit, all i can think about is getting relief. Only nicorette mini has a patented fastdissolving formula. It starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. I never know when ill need relief. Thats why i only choose nicorette mini. The ones with the guts to stand apart join a league all their own. Congratulations. Youre down with crestor. Yes when diet and exercise arent enough, adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol up to 55 . Crestor is not for people with Liver Disease or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. Tell your doctor all medicines you take. Call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine or yellowing of skin or eyes. These could be signs of serious side effects. Im down with crestor make your move. Ask your doctor about crestor. Neil all right, how many times would you take dietary advice from me . I cant hear i, youre at home. Of course you wouldnt when unions are giving advice to fastfood workers you have to double minimum wage protest for it. Risk your job for it. Sounds good. 15 it is. In l. A. That became the law. You find it weird that days later unions are saying wed like a carveout on this 15 thing, especially Union Operations talk about a double standard. Scott walker of wisconsin telling me it was worse. They really pushed all of this but want a special carveout for unions, what do you think . Some of the same labor union the Big GovernmentLabor Union Bosses who pushed obamacare, pushed this president pushed the liberal leaders in california are asking for a carveout. Id much rather see it i dont support changes in minimum wage the better approach is give people the skills the education and training to succeed in jobs that pay far greater, two times the minimum wage. Neil unions are hypocritical . Thats Kayleigh Mcenanys views or nothing unusual going on here democratic strategist with that view. You smell a fish. Unions are hypocritical for seve months they were fighting against exceptions for Restaurant Owners and all of a sudden, now that its coming down to the pipes, they say wait labor unions need an exception, its hypocrisy and astonishing to think they cant get away with it. Neil chuck, arent you ashamed to be a liberal . I want to be on top of this building in washington, d. C. Youre talking about 10 of the unionized workers in california. Give them the minimum wage. Lets say you have 6 an hour worth of benefits and benefit us that bring into it but only make 14 an hour in pay. If youre collective bargaining you get on vote. Neil no, no youre shifting here. Im not shifting im giving you facts about that. Neil the same thing the employers in the fast Food Industry wanted to do. Can we have a two tier pay structure for the younger workers or those who are working parttime, can we have a different lower rate for them and the union said no no no no. Essentially what the unions want now, can we have a carveout for the newer members or other me