Was the wedding of charles and diana. 750 Million People watched that. So there. Just putting it in perspective. I dont know why i mentioned it, but i just felt compelled to. All right, weve got a lot going on here, because the polls, whether you looking at a twoperson race or a fourperson race, theyre as tight as a tick, dead even. The latest from the Trump National finance chairman. Steve, you couldnt have, you know, a more heated poll situation going into this than the ones were looking at. Youve heard what a lot of the clinton folks want to do to your candidate, expose him as a liar and exaggerator, and if they have their way to complete the trifecta, a thinskinned guy with a big temper. What do you think . Well, first of all, we couldnt be more excited about this evening. And i dont think well beat the wedding, but its going to be a huge turnout. [laughter] i think most people know what theyre getting with Hillary Clinton. Its a campaign of no change, and this is going to be a great opportunity for the American Public to see donald trump and understand. His campaign is about change, its about National Security, and its about growing the economy. Neil all right. Its also about growing the kind of money that is drawn to a Campaign Based on a good performance. We saw mitt romney benefit from that four years ago after the first debate in which he scored a lot of blows against the president. A lot of people said he want conveniently. He wasnt so luck city in the followup debate, but he did raise a lot of money. Are you optimistic that a Strong Performance by donald trump tonight will also help the campaign raise some money . I couldnt be more optimistic about that. We have had a huge online effort already in just a short period of time, in a few months weve seen over two Million People contribute online. I think were going to have huge growth in our online effort, and were beginning to see a lot of people sitting on the sidelines calling us and saying they want to support donald trump. So with a Strong Performance tonight, i think it couldnt be going better. Neil steve, let me ask you about this push, its been led in maybe the main stream immediate media media, a lot of others, the role of the moderator has to change, lester holt has to fact check the candidates. Presumably, that happens to both. But they really want to target after what they call Donald Trumps consistent lies. What do you make of that and whether a moderator should be in that role . Look, i think a lot of people attacked matt lauer unfairly. I think he did a great job on the intrepid. I think, clearly, donald trump won the debate on the intrepid, and i think hes going to win tonight, and it doesnt matter who the moderator is. I think its going to be pretty clear when the American Public sees the candidate of change is donald trump. Neil so, im sorry about my question wasnt clear. Do you think that a moderator should do that, that a moderator should interject, correct the candidates . The candidate is making an obvious exaggeration . Look, i dont think the candidates are going to make exaggerations, and the moderators job is to keep the whole session going. Its an opportunity to ask questions and let the candidates answer and let the American Public hear the answers, and theyll decide for themselves. And i think theyre going to decide on donald trump. Be. Neil when you are in planning sessions or discuss this with donald trump, i mean, to a man and woman they all seem to be saying the same thing for the trump camp, stay calm, boss. Dont go, dont go nuts, dont let her get under your skin. It seems to be a prevailing view among trump loyalists. The trend is your friend right now. Youve done this without making personal attks, without losing your cool. Keep to that. Do you subscribe to that view . Look, Donald Trumps done an amazing job. He ran through the whole republican group. He knows how to do debates. Hes listening to people because he loves taking advice and loves to listen to people, but donald trump knows what to do, and thats what youre going to hear this evening. Neil but, no, you raise a good point, steve. He ran through that crowd with a fair amount of criticism of that crowd, and it didnt hurt him. He won. So maybe he might figure who am i to hold back . Look, i think youre going to hear about the policies of the trump administration, and and youre going to hear donald trump and this is a great opportunity for the American Public and the people who are undecided that are going to come onboard with trump. We couldnt be more excited. Its going to be the alltime great match, and, you know, this is the first one of three, and i think we couldnt be more excited about seeing him. Im thrilled to be there this evening, and its going to be a great night. Neil do you think that theres more pressure on donald trump in the sense that he is a little less known to the American People than Hillary Clinton on Public Policy . No way. I think theres neil despite the sorry, go ahead. Neil no, thats what you obviously disagree with that. Yeah, no. I think theres much more pressure on Hillary Clinton. And you see this in the polls. Neil you might be shocked to find out they think theres more pressure on your candidate. Well, they can think what they want, but let he tell you, theres nobody better with donald trump in pressure, and hes going to be cool as can be. Neil all right. Is he aware and hes okay with some of these numbers theyre talking about, 100 Million Viewers . I mean, thats, thats a lot of pressure. I think hes going to be upset if he doesnt beat the wedding, you know . [laughter] donalds used to a lot of people watching him. Neil i think the other one is 600 million for Neil Armstrong on the moon. Might have a shot at that one. 750 million, like i said, for charles and diana. Well, i think well be happy with 250 or 300. Neil all right. Very gd. Steve, thank you very much. Good seeing you. Great. Thanks for seeing you too. Neil all right. Charlie gasparino has a lot of news here. First off, theres a lot of talk whats going on inside that room. The lights are very bright, but much ado about mark cuban being in the first row. Good luck seeing anyone in any row, the lights can be so bright this there. But theres been a little tit for tat between both campaigns on this, right . Well, you know, yesterday it came out that he might, donald trump might invite jennifer flowers of bill clinton adulterring fame. That turned out not to be the case. This shows you how debate gamesmanship does matter, both sides looking to play mind games with the other. Hillary clinton inviting mark cuban, both dont like each other. Cubans clearly in the clinton camp this year, and hes very vocal about it. But we understand that the trump camp and this is from sources close to the trump camp theyre looking to invite exthat lean mark geist and put him in the front row. If you know anything about him, hes one of those benghazi survivors. Hes been somewhat an outspoken critic of secretary of state clinton for her role in the benghazi tragedy. Mr. Geist, from what i understand, has been kind of close to donald trump in recent weeks, and thats why theyre inviting him. I will say this, if this does come about, i will tell you, weve not yet been able to confirm this with the Trump Campaign. Were getting this from people close to mr. Geist and the campaign, theyre saying hes likely to attend. If he does do this, its pretty interesting because it looked like its a different donald trump. Because the old donald trump would have gone for the low blow and invited Gennifer Flowers and turned this into a tabloid thing. If he invites mr. Geist, hes basically putting up against mark cuban a war hero, somebody who is critical of the clinton administration, of the obama administrations Foreign Policy, critical of how Hillary Clinton who was president obamas secretary of state handled that Foreign Policy particularly as it relates to benghazi, and someone whos just not, you know, some sort of a troll. You know, mark geist is an american hero. Neil no, that would be a different kind of they denied right. They denied in the beginning they were even thinking of jennifer flowers or paula jones well, it was donald who said it. [laughter] neil right. But we should be clear here that there are roughly 1100 seats in that room. Right. Stuart a third go to Hillary Clintons supporters, she can pick who she wants, a third go to his supporters, they can pick who they want, and a third are some of the students at the school, those who volunteer and those who are participating in a lottery. I think 7500 or 8000 students are participating in a lotry for those few seats remaining. Right. Neil having said that, does the Debate Commission have any kind of a say if it gets to be, you know, deemed a circus . Neil yeah, a circus, yeah. I dont listen, from what i understand, and im not an expert at this, but ive made a few calls, you get to invite who you want. You dont i mean, you know, i guess if donald, if hillary wanted to invite a porn star to this to freak out donald trump, i guess they could the Debate Commission could say thats not appropriate, but its up to, its up to the candidates to pick who they want. And i will tell you this neil all right. That if hes going with mr. Geist, thats a pretty as much as i like mark cuban, hes not a war hero. That means that donald trump is changing. Neil no, no, youre right if that were the case. But good luck, those seen out there, the lights are that bright, itd be hard to make out. Maybe just knowing that theyre there while ive got you, i want the latest on Deutsche Bank here. Theres talk that its in a world of hurt and that the germans might have to bail it out. We remember what happened eight years ago. What are you hearing . This is a bank in deep trouble, it has a capital problem. Two things could happen with Deutsche Bank, or maybe a combination of both. Some sort of deep pocket of investors, someone like a Warren Buffett would come in and buy shares. I dont think thats going to happen. Or the German Government, which is very protective of its banks, come in and do some sort of capital infusion. I will just say this, you know, heres where it gets political. If Deutsche Bank does run into major problems and i dont think its going to be a leanin moment but itll crater the markets. The stock markets going down significantly in the middle of this election because bank stocks, you know, the overall markets very contingent on bank stocks. If that does happen, thats another economic positive for the Trump Campaign. Neil well, whats driving it today . Fears that theyre spreading yes. And bank stocks, remember, if you play the markets as we dont do, but this is the bottom line, a lot of these algorithms that shoot sell often shoot sell when banks get in trouble, and you start selling orr bank stocks x. That generally depresses the entire market. Banks are considered contingent to the u. S. Economy. If the banking sectors in trouble, the u. S. Economy is considered weaker. Now, obviously, this is a german bank. But remember, Deutsche Bank is one of these german banks that operate toes massively in the u. S. Operates massively in the u. S. I dont think its lehman, i hate the word lehman moment, but it does show you some underlying weakness in the banking sector. Guess what . Eight years after the financial crisis, after doddfrank which is imposing tons of restrictions, the banks are still not that great. I mean, thats one of the cases that could be be made. Neil Charlie Gasparino, always a pleasure. Have fun out there, my friend. Neil all right. Indeed, we will. All right, thank you very much. And, again, Deutsche Bank and those u. S. Operations are subject to doddfrank even though its a german entity. So remember that whatever u. S. Operations are still subject to the rules of doddfrank, hence the fear that this has some spin on Financial Issues, u. S. Banking issues, much as we had eight years ago. Too soon to tell, but its obviously weighing on stocks. All right, there are a couple of candidates who are not invited to this shin dig tonight. Theyre the prominent independent candidates running. You already know about governor gary johnson. Then theres the issue of jill stein, who many say is a clinton spoiler. Then again, its in the eye of the beholder. I think ms. Stein would disagree. Well ask her, because shes next. What powers the digital world. Communication. Thats why a cutting Edge University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Neil all right. Welcome, everybody, here outside Hofstra University where later on tonight were going to see a man and a woman debating together on the same stage for the highest office in the land. Weve never seen that in American History, and be we will see a lot of history being made in that very room tonight. Now, a lot of people say how will this showdown and the two others that will follow and the one Vice President ial debate, how will they affect the race . Debates can turn things. We saw in 1980 a close race, after that debate, and Ronald Reagans performance made famous by the there you go again, the incumbent jimmy carter, well, it took a close race and turned it in later on to a landslide. But my next guest has an impeccable record on this sort of thing. In fact, professor of the fine university called American University in washington, has correctlcalled races for 30 years. He has never been wrong, and hes here with this election prediction. With that, professor, drum roll, please [laughter] the winner this year will be . According to history, donald trump. Might surprise a lot of people neil wow. My system doesnt go by the pundits or the polls. Neil thats probably a shrewd strategy right there, but what grow look at in what do you look at . How have you compiled this uncanny track record . Great question. I developed this system in 1981 by examining every president ial election since lincoln in 1860 guided by the theory that elections are primarily judgments on the governance of the party holding the white house. And from that i developed 13 key questions that could be answered true or false that gauge the strength and performance of the White House Party. And the decision rule is six of the her teen keys, if thirteen keys, if they go against the party this power, they lose. Six keys and youre out, and thats been right since 1984. This time there are, in fact, six keys against the White House Party which is the democrats which suggests that a republican should win. But we have a contending counterforce this year that ive never seen before, and that is a precedentshattering, unusual candidate in donald trump. Neil all right. I didnt really understand that, but i im kidding. But the gist of it was [laughter] that you look at 13 different issues, events, i guess, conditions right. Things like the economy, Foreign Policy neil okay. Social unrest. Neil and six right now are not going the incumbent candidates way . The incumbent Party Candidates way . Thats right. Thats six and youre out. Neil really . That means even if there are seven that are going the way thats right. Its six ask youre out. A seventh is pretty shaky, so the verdict of history is definitely against the democrats. And, of course, this is a prediction, not an endorsement. Neil all right. Now, could those conditions change based on a debate . No. I dont think they could change based on a debate, but they could actually, one could, and thats the third party. Theres a tremendous amount of votes going towards gary johnson, libertarian. Theyve never gotten more than 1 before, and that always hurts the party in power when youve got a pesky third party. If she could persuade some of these younger johnson voters to go Hillary Clintons way, that could affect a key. Another key that could be affected not by the debate, but by real events is the Foreign Policy success key. If, in fact, the coalition drives isis out of iraq, that could be a Foreign Policy success. Neil now, of these socalled keys then, which are more influential, domestic, economic . Like you said, terror, Foreign Policy that undid jimmy carter in 1980, what . [laughter] another great question. The secret of the keys that makes it different from all other forecasting systems is every key counts equally. And heres why that matters. All the other systems have some multiplier in them, like you multiply Economic Growth by some factor to get a prediction. The