Stocks on top of with Deutsche Bank and all of its ills, someone will rescue them, whether the German Government or consortium of players. Bottom line the optimism here someone comes in to stimulate, to rescue, to be a backstop to provide protection for capitalist institution might be in trouble. How many times we have seen this. I will not begrudge a rally. Well begrudge rallies if youre long the market. I do look at rationale behind this one presumably anytime there is stimulus, anytime the looks like the fed continues to provide easy monies or governments stand by beleaguered banks were off to the races. That is not a reason to be off to the races. A reason to start questioning why were off to the races. First to Connell Mcshane what is really going on this final trading day of the month. Connell . Hard to tell but oning thing we talk about the market and Deutsche Bank stock price is linked. Part of it as you say the bank eventually may be bailed out. There is also a lot out there today, if not bailed out in the traditional sense Deutsche Bank may be helped out by the Justice Department of the United States. The stock is up 12 after hitting alltime low earlier. The Justice Department requested 14 billion to settle an investigation of mortgagebacked securities with Deutsche Bank. All over the place, as we take longer term look at the stock, it is still down the where it was, all over the place, wall street trading floors and twitter sphere and places like that there is speculation that 14 billion number may come way down to Something Like five or six billion dollars. That would be much less after hit of Deutsche Bank. Speculation not confirmed but enough to drive stocks. What do we mean by that this is remarkable. I know you love a good chart, neil as much as next guy. The Deutsche Bank and pardon up with the s p 500. Theyre tied together. 23 1 2 hours is better way of saying it, 12 30 eastern time the story started to hit the wire hedge funds pulling out money from deutch. Stock down. Market down. Now see the end of cha chart . S p 500, nothing else matters just tied to the Deutsche Bank story that has come way back with the speculation out there. Neil if we cut back, ease up on fines because institution might be coupled coupled with berlin talking, backstop, the Financial Times report, i will leave it at that you wonder if were getting heated of ourselves and other entutions did not get a back not under duress, if they say, hey, this isnt fair. Seems like weve been through Something Like this almost. Talking about speculation of a bailout, even though it may not be a traditional bailout, it comes to fruition, having similar facts, almost giving them a break. Synonym for a bailout not like the government rushes in with money like in the past. Maybe it doesnt happen. If youre the Justice Department the effect is similar. Neil thank you very much, my friend, Connell Mcshane. Looking at potentially 14 billion fine for the role or alleged role in mortgagebacked securities and all the fancyshmancy derivatives helping market. The fact if it is pared by 2 3 other banks wondering wait a minute, you pare settlements for us. Or do you play this some sort of soap opera. Say youre in great duress and if governments get to tough on you, you go bellyup. We have charles payne. Jonas fax ferris. And nina easton. What do you think of that . To some extent were seeing a lot of arguments we saw back in 2008 of course being played out. These institutions too big to fail . And you know, i think that weve learned a lot, though, since 2008. U. S. Banks are better capitalized. There is more of a, more of a sense that this could become global contagion if it is not taken care of right away. Playing out right on the eve of the election. We can talk about that and how it will impact the candidates. Neil i do want to talk about that, but charles payne, the notion it has Lehman Brothers feel to it, to avoid a Lehman Brothers disaster something eight years ago was everywhere. What do you think . Nina pointed out the Banking System was a lot stronger back then. It was much bigger ticking time bomb. Neil when you say stronger more capital ratios. Neil you can bleed cash fast in market selloff. Not a market selloff. We already had a explosion, sort of saying the volcano erupted there is half a volcano left. If the other half erupts it wont be same previous neil you keep pounding the notion, capital a lot of banks not figured into the equation value of their stock, right . If that plummets, not that it happened, isnt that part of the equation we dont appreciate . It is part but they also have to have more assets other than stock and you know, i will say if you to go down that path this week which was very underreported the Federal Reserve is beefing up the stress tests. That is something to keep an eye on. Neil why are they doing that. That is a big question. Why would they be doing it now. It is very quiet. You have to go to the website an monitor it all the time. Having said that, im critic, eight, seven years later, the government pounding these banks for more and more money. Where did the 14 billion number come from . That was arbitrary number pulled out of the left field. The valuation of the stock is 14 billion. There are two sides to this. As far as politics are concerned, yesterday Hillary Clinton said her favorite politician was Angela Merkel. Would president obama throw her under the bus, Angela Merkel on the eve of the u. S. Election allowing germanys biggest bank to go under or face more duress . There are so many parts to this story. Neil i think Angela Merkel is interesting because she leads a conservative government. That is whole another issue. Jonas, on that how big of a deal this could be. I dont like the reasons for the rally. We all love a rally if youre long the market but i dont like the reasons pe this. A rally based on Central Banks doing something to keep a bank propped up neil or Justice Department curtailing fines. Underlying earnings decline in the United States, that said i dont think well get a rally on bailout rumors, specifically the kind from 08 where were handing money to banks. If its a bailout, a political direct bailout somebody making a phone call you have to move the decimal point on the fine because the bank cant afford that. Begs the question if they cant afford the crime maybe the crime wasnt lucrative. Wells fargo could pay this and hurt their stock 50 cents. Neil they could open up bogus accounts. Houses have gone you will up in europe this bank is not wellcapitalized. They have deflation problems. Assets backing their loans are not as good as wells fargo. This bank cant just write a 16 billion check. There is no bank can handle a panic. The banking business is leveraged. I dont care what the rules are, if you get people scared, this isnt retail bank with a lost branches where people run and hedge funds dont want them a counterparty, the bank will collapse without someone stepping in. Unfortunately the conservative point you made they dont want to bail out this bank, if they bail it the bank, italy banks want to bail out and greek banks. That will cause a bailout. This thing has to go under for there to be a bailout. Neil talking about banks here or abroad, theyre joined at the hip in this sense that for example, when it comes to their Central Banks, easy money beats tough money. Low rates the way they are beats those rates going up and every time there is even the hint from a fed governor, district president , whatever they might go up, sooner than the market thought, the market panics and that tells me that they had their druthers rates would never go up. All these Central Banks would never get tough when it comes to inflation and that worries me as well. Well that worries a lot of people, neil, but in fairness to our banking civil the banks, and not to be complete defender of everything our banks are doing, we did, our Banking System, u. S. Banking system went through stress tests, went through raising capital, went through cleansing of the system that the european banks franksly were late on doing and i think to some extent youre seeing it play out now. So you know, i think concerns are welltaken but so is the concern of setting off a worldwide financial contagion once again. Neil yeah. You know and neil i dont want to be Central Banks are reacting, yeah. Neil i agree with you. I have dont wan to be a crepe hanger or alarmist. Maybe the season. Maybe another president ial election or maybe institution in trouble bringing my memory back here you but i want to get a sense from you about the overall economy worldwide. Right. Neil because normally developments like this hint of problems or they could be oneshot aberrations. What are they to you . America is still probably the best developed economy in the world. Were starting to get some traction. It is not saying much but to ninas point europe is in a lot of trouble. The european exit vote, to me it was not so much about the Britain European Union is unmitigated disaster. They have a bunch of large banks with a bunch of toxic assets, aging population and no real way to spark the economy outside of germany where people pay products a premium for. You separate the United States with that. Today costco is soaring. If i go to costco this weekend i wait in line to pay for my 500 to 1000 stuff. Were a separated from the rest of the world. Not to jonass point we could avoid total calamity but we have some breathing room. With the Central Banks, the bank of japan has been buying stocks directly through etfs, guess what . Their market is getting hammered this year. Neil forcibly adjusting rate on 10year note. Jonas real fast, donald trump said in the debate that essentially this market is built on helium. A slight uptick by the fed all of sudden kablooy. His real estate portfolio is built on more helium than the stock market. He has properties with debt behind them valued neil stock market itself. He is partially right but applies to all assets. Not just the stock market. Applies to real estate more than the stock market. That takes biggest hit. People dont buy stocks with leverage like 1929. That is what rosengren is afraid of. Rosengren is a dove who voted for hike because he said the biggest bubble we have is commercial real estate. Neil i tried to wake the world up here but if you guys dont follow me that, donald trump has new line of attack right now. The best way to help you follow it is to follow that money. There is lots of it too. Everything you need to know about Hillary Clinton can be understood with this simple phrase, follow the money. The wealthy donors who want to shut down american energy, theyre donating to Hillary Clinton. Follow the money. The wall Street Investors who have rigged the regulations against the middle class, theyre donating to Hillary Clinton. Follow the money. Neil all right, something tells me that this has been timetested in some internal polls within the trump camp but this money issue and Clinton Foundation and hillary and bill clinton how they became multigazillion nays after they left office it is resonating. I expect the next debate it will be something for donald trump a theme dominating. To answer some charges Hillary Clinton made in the debate, if not for bankruptcy laws favoring him he wouldnt be doing as well as he is. Be that as it may, real clear politics reporter, caitlyn burns, getting back what he is trying, that she cant be trusted, that she is bought and paid for. He used that argument with jeb bush an candidates during the primary season who had a lot of Financial Support from outside groups but does it resonate . It is interesting too, weighed her down in the democratic primary. Neil right. Bernie sanders made similar charges, that resonated with democrats, more liberal democrats. I think it would have the potential to stick if this were not a week which donald trump was bungling his message. Remember in the first half hour or so of the debate, his strongest points were going afr her on her ties, her decadeslong ties to the establishment. Exactly. For him it was solid message and something resonates in an election which people are craving change, when you look at polls, that is something that comes up over and over again. Majority of people think were on the wrong track. However he has used intervening hours and days and almost going on a week now to not press that message but has kind of stumbled into the clinton traps that have been laid for him on the Miss Universe issue. All neil his people must have warned him. I know you get sick of being asked this. I am not asking as woman, just someone analyzes it, that would be suicidal thing to go on, to start doing this stuff, start alienating women and men, as Stuart Varney pointed out, this is offensive language. You dont need to do it because youre on fire on some of these economic ones. That was the biggest critique after the debate, that he missed all opportunities to go after her on her vulnerabilities and present his vision, you know for the future, kind of his stances neil wouldnt want to be on offense. Heard every criticism on offense. Especially were 39 days out. Early voting started in iowa. Neil people on these debates, it is pretty clear they helped Hillary Clinton. Now, they go up and down, i understand that. But he cant afford one more debate like that last one. Right, exactly. He has to prepare. And this is the criticism of him, that he kind of shoots from the hip. Doesnt necessarily take the advice that is being given to him. We heard advice from all sorts of people, including Trump Supporters on air, in interviews and such, trying to get him back on the message, focusing on the economy. Focusing on hitting Hillary Clinton. And he just hasnt been able to do that. Why i think the clinton attacks on him were effective was it kind of baited him into this, the situation where he felt it was so personal, he had to respond, right . Neil but money thing, when she raise the it with him in the bankruptcies and 14 million from his dad, not a million, should have been inconsequential to him, well i didnt get rich off of public service. But he didnt do that. Im wondering if it is too late to do that now. This money hunt, calling follow the money, great idea, at the start of the campaign. A little late now. Right. If he didnt have his own vulnerabilities on some of these issues too. Looking at next debate, it is town hall format which can present opportunities and challenges for trump interest. We know he feeds off energy from the crowd. Neil that might not be a crowd that loves him. Exactly. He could use that to his advantage but could you imagine a scenario which he is asked a question by one member of the town hall that he doesnt find favorable to him . So he needs to work with his team to really practice that. There are a lot of theatrics involved in debates anyway, especially town hall format youre sitting down at some points. Youre standing up, engaging with the crowd. I think that presents opportunities for him to change course a little bit here. Whether he takes the advice being given to him by all sorts of people remains to be seen. If we know anything from the twitter streams that we saw early this morning that is kind of where he is thinking now. Neil but he is going to be interrupted more than she is. He will be challenged more than she is. That is just the way it is, right . Right, but it depends. Debates are a format you can bring up whatever you want to bring up. Neil exactly, distinct think, clearly, boom. Exactly. You can use it to pivot an ask a question to your debate, right . Neil yes. You can move on to something you want to talk about. And that is something he didnt recognize during the debate last time. Neil caitlyn, thank you very much. Caitlyn huey burns, real clear politics. Were getting more details on the hoboken train crash but a lot of what nancy pelosi was saying already surmising what was behind it . Not so much. Neil all right. We are getting some updates right now, latest hospital update on the hoboken train crash. 13 at jersey city Medical Center. One in stable condition. Two in icu, two stable patients. At Hoboken UniversityMedical Center in hackensack, there are signs at least there are, injuries are not going to compromise lives here. So were still left with one fatality we have, better than 100 injured in total. To the hill transportation reporter on what is behind this right now. Are they coming any closer now, melanie, to figure out what it was . Its a really slow process. Just today we learned that the event recorder from the train was uncovered. They will be looking at engineer and interviewing him today. That is what federal investigators have said. But there is a still a lot we dont know. One thing we do know, that the train did appear to be speeding. Came in at a high rate of speed and crashed into the station. Neil so it didnt have the socalled positive Train Control