Transcripts For FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell 20131227 :

FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell December 27, 2013

Exchange, mark newton, gary at the cme group and Jerry Grossman over at the nasdaq. All right, mark, lets talk about really just todays action, certainly, friday isnt going to spook anyone. But is this a sign of things to come as we have two trading sessions left, actually . Yeah, brief stallout, slowdown. Weve had six straight gains ever since the taper was announced, and were still seeing good strength in energy and materials which is important because those groups have lagged the majority of the year. Now were seeing some reversion in the month of december where weve seen commodities reach the highest level since october. The yields getting over 3 in the tenyear, could serve to spook people, that is psychologically important. Were set to close at the highest weekly closing basis since 2011, so thats also somewhat important. Cheryl you know, mark, at the top of the show i was actually comparing the markets that weve seen not just today, but really this year with the 18mile mark of a marathon. And you get to this wall, and you kind of have to take a little break, but you still finish a strong race. Are we going to end this year on a strong, high note barring any catastrophe . Its been tough betting against it, so im going to have to say, sure, thats likely. Whatll be interesting is look at the first full week of january because that often times sets the tone for the next year, so 2014 itll be interesting to see how we start off given were so overbought on many different levels, but, yeah, that is important certainly. Cheryl all right. Lets move over to the cme, and the question in particular today as we looked at all the Inventory Data coming out is one of the things were going to have to face in the new year is the farm bill. Thats one of the major pieces of legislation that has not been dealt with, the farm bill. Talk to me about that and how everybodys feeling in chicago today. Well, theyre looking forward to be passed off to another month or two until everybody gets back together from their holiday sessions, and then they will address it. Nobody wants to see milk at 8 a gallon, so they will address that right away. Some of the other issues that we have to look at also is tomorrow is the last day for a lot of seem to be getting tear unemployment checks through their unemployment checks through the government. The following week were going to see on that jobless claims and the unemployment claims, im sorry, that these numbers are really going to start coming down, but are they real numbers as far as the unemployment is concerned . And with that, were seeing the dollar dropping down today, were seeing the euro, were seeing the british pound taking off. I mean, were seeing highs. The euro tried to break the 139 range. We saw the pound break over the 165. The yen got down into that 105. Were seeing a lot of turmoil going on right now, and next week with this unemployment number is really going to be key. Again, back to that farm situation, the farm bill, were going to see that slumped over until they can really get into the meat and potatoes of it, pardon the pun. [laughter] cheryl pun well taken, actually, i like that very much. Lets go over to Jeff Grossman down at the the nymex. Big news today with the inventory, it was delayed for the Christmas Holiday but came out 11 a. M. Eastern time today, and oil was the big surprise. I mean, it was a double miss from what analysts expected that drawdown, and that took us over 100 today. Well, its about time. Everyones been figuring it was a fait accompli, and we finally got there. In fact, its almost healthy for markets, and its testing and teasing at a number to finally breakthrough, and now we have the ability now to maybe have that healthy selloff this market may need if its able to go to higher territory. Im not exactly overly zealous about the market going much higher, i see tremendous resistance, about a half a dollar to a dollar or higher. But i will say this, the heating oil has been the driving force if the last few sessions. It has carried us up to the last couple of sessions. I think if theres any more weather, its going to take that and natural gas possibly to new highs. Cheryl the other backdrop going back to oil for just a moment and, of course, opec. They want to leave production levels the same, and most International Bodies that come out and speak in the oil markets are going to say that opec, their targets are way too high, maybe as much as a Million Barrels per day. How do you gauge that information as a trader, an opinion . The real wildcard and swing factor here will be iran. Because, again, if they really get online the way theyre talking about, adhere to all sanctions and everything thats been talked about, thats about 10 of the worlds reserves there. So that could put a real amount of oil onto this market and take us down to numbers i still think we belong in which would be back to the low 90s, mid 80s. But, again, we have to get through the next three to four weeks here weather wise before anything could come to fruition in that situation anyway. Cheryl that goes back to the farm bill, gary, and is we were talking about commodities, investing in commodities yesterday with a guest we had here on the show this new york, and you have to say the weather that we are going to see play out and, again, the subsidies for farmers could affect the commodities market, especially the grapes market, in grains market, in a negative way. Well, one of the things thats helping the grains market right now is the u. S. Dollar falling off, so we are exporting a little bit more. But the weather is key. This coming weekend we have some extreme cold weather coming in. The winter wheat crop could be in peril right now. There is a lot of concern about that. Theres also concern about the waterways, the mississippi freezing up in the northern sections right now where they wont be able to transport it south and get it to the bolters so they can export it. Theres so much going on, we also have south america as we take a look down there, theyve been having a lot of rain, now theyre getting back up into their 90 and 100degree weather, and theyre looking like theyre going to have a bumper crop, and the livestock whats going on, theres a virus going on between 500,000 and a million head of hogs that is a concern right now. So were going to be looking at prices probably climbing in hogs, and now theyre cutting back production on livestock cattle. So were going to be looking at prices coming back up. Theres a lot to look forward to. Happy 2014. [laughter] cheryl gary, it is not going to be boring. Jeff, mark, gentlemen, thank you very much. Nice to see you, of course, on this friday. Happy holidays to all of you. Have a great weekend. Cheryl you too. Its going to be a cold weekend, we should also say, for much of you out in the northeast and it sounds like in other parts of the country as well. All right, well, there is also big news today about the tboft surveillance programs. A federal judge ruling that the National Security Agency Program to collect records of millions of americans phone calls is lawful. Rich edson is live from inside the beltway with the latest on this developing story. Reporter cheryl, the Controversial Program gets legal reassurance only two weeks after another federal judge questioned its constitutionality. In a decision, u. S. District court judge William Polly says, quote technology allowed alqaeda to operate decentralized and plot International Terrorist attacks remotely. The bulky telephone Metadata Collection Program represents the governments counterpunch connecting fragmented and fleeting communications to reconstruct and eliminate alqaedas terror network. New york republican congressman peter king is the first lawmaker to weigh in saying, quote todays decision is a victory for the patriotic men and women of the nsa. More importantly,ves a vital weapon for the United States in our war against international terrorism. The American Civil Liberties union sued the government in in this case. The aclu says the judge misinterpreted the relevant statutes, and it will appeal the decision. Less than two weeks ago, u. S. District court judge richard leon found, quote surely such a program infringes on that degree of privacy that the founders enshrined innthe fourth amendment. Judge leon gave the government the opportunity to appeal that decision before requiring nsa to end collecting datas on the two americans who sued. Matters of such significance usually wind up in front of the supreme court. No timetable on that. Cheryl oh, gosh, this story does not end. Rich edson, thank you very much. Live out of washington for us, rich edson. And, you know, become to the markets here in new york back to the markets here in new york, youve got what we call a social media slump today. From twitter to facebook, also shares of groupon. Lauren simonetti is standing by on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for her on whats happening with these names today. Reporter yeah, social media is slumping. Lets take a look at twitter. This is what everybody is talking about. For a couple of days now, this stock is selling off about 10 now. The level is 66. 21. Analysts did cut the company to an underperform rating, maintaining the 46 price target which is still 20 below where the stock is trading today. The Investment Group says that twitter is higher bo its analyst above its analyst price targets than any other stock in the s p 500, so it really is valued pretty high at this point. Cheryl, take a look at some of these other social names that are all down, and some of them down pretty sharply. Facebook, linkedin, yelp and groupon all with a red arrow today, cheryl. Back to you. Cheryl well, lauren, stick around because later on weve got Colleen Taylor coming on from tech crunch, and shes got some fascinating insight into what she thinks twitter is worth. Its a surprising interview coming up. Lauren, thank you very much. Stay with us, weve got a lot going on on this friday. First full week excuse me, last full week of the year of trading. Closing bell ringing 50 minutes from now. It has been a terrific year for stocks, you didnt cant deny it. How can you protect your gains for 2013 . Coming up next, were going to the talk to a money manager with 15 billion under management about specific strategies to play the market as we get into 2014. And as stocks are no longer your thing, how about investing in, oh, yeah, a private island. Uhhuh. Weve got the founder of an International Real estate broker, thats a fox business exclusive. Youd be shocked, youd be shocked how much some of these islands go for. You dont have to be a billionaire. You can own an island, trust me. Cheryl our power mover of the hour is tech strong. This is the Parent Company of cessna, you know, the aircraft . The stock is higher by 1. 25 percent, announcing it will buy Beechcraft Corporation for 1. 4 billion. They exited bankruptcy earlier this year and was seeking buyers for the Plane Business which has been losing money. Credit suisse and Morgan Stanley in this deal and then jpmorgan was the financial adviser. There is txt for you. Text, get it . Stocks are trading lower today on light holiday volume, but overall it has been a boom year for equities. Markets are posting doubledigit gains for the year. Many bulls though are now calling for the rally to continue into the new year. One fund manager with almost 15 billion in assets says its time to take some profits and bulletproof that portfolio. Randy bateman, huntington funds chief investment officer, here from austin, texas. Hi, randy, how are you . [laughter] great, cheryl, and happy new year to you and the fine folks at fox. Cheryl i just actually came back from texas a couple of days ago. I have to tell you, this has been a heck of a year. We have had a wonderful runup in equities, but why would you advise clients to maybe move some money off the table when there doesnt seem to be anything pulling to a pull pointing to a pullback for 2014 . What are you seeing that were not, randy . Im not seeing anything that anybody be else is not seeing, but what i do think is very important to recognize is the fact that weve had a booming market not just this year, but really since 2009, late 2009. Weve really seen a really strong recovery in in this market. And i kind of equate it to lets say were right in the middle of the basketball season as well. If youre a good College Basketball player and think youre going to get drafted by the nba, your agent is going to tell you first thing to do if you get drafted, take some of that bonus money up front and buy you some insurance on your knees, on your back, on your neck [laughter] its a rough sport. And thats what im saying do now. Youve had a wonderful year. Youve weve had a big bonus in this market. Take some of it and buy some insurance, and theres a lots of ways you can do that. Cheryl okay. Thousand youve got me worried about my knees and my feet and my ankles, so what kind of insurance do i need to buy right now . [laughter] okay. Well, you know, theres lots of ways you can go about it. You can pick individual stocks that you can buy puts on and still participate in the market if you vary the degree to which the put is in the money. One of the things you might want to do with your entire portfolio, however, is buy some insurance which hike just the s p 500 which might be just the s p 500 etfs, the spiders, itself say. You can purchase a put due in june, the markets trading about 183 on that. You can buy the puts at a 181, so slightly out of the money. And it costs you, oh, maybe 6 to do that. You can cover an entire 100,000 portfolio for a little over 3,000 and still give you a little bit of of upside. It just seems like to make sense right in here. We dont know what the markets going to do. There are some headwinds with regard to taxes and regulations thats going to occur, and to me, the best thing to do is take advantage of the largess that the market has provided us over the last few years cheryl it has. Host and lets go for it. Cheryl some investors look back over times, especially maybe a year ago when the dow was sitting at the levels that it was one year ago to today, 25 higher, and they think, gosh, i wish i would have stayed in the entire year, and a lot of people actually didnt. On a more positive side, are there sectors youre overweighting right now . Several people coming in with 2014 calls with sectors like financials or industrials, what do you like right now that you would put must be into . You know, theres a couple of scenarios that were trying to look at, and one of those is what i mentioned earlier, increased regulation. And i think traditionally when you have increased regulation much like after the sarbanesoxley law was passed, you see merger and acquisition activity. A lot of small names simply cannot compete and want to merge with a larger competitor. A Great Company thats going to participate in that is ever corp. Partners out of manhattan, providing Investment Banking research and advice. Another area cheryl you mentioned ever corp. , but when you were on november 7th, you brought in tractor supply, tsco is ticker. Stock is up 9 since you picked it, and im curious, hey, being from texas, do you still like the stock now . Yeah. Thats another theme that were playing is the agricultural area. We to feel that farm income has grown pretty dramatically over the past few years, its actually doubled over the past four years. Youve also got fracking thats taking places in the rural area so, consequently, youre seeing a lot of capital in the rural environment that hadnt been there previously. You can do the traditional things like caterpillar and deere and the fertilizer companies, but were trying to look maybe a little bit deeper in terms of the deeper pockets that the farmer has. What is he going to spend his money on . Cheryl especially if the farm bill comes through, and we just had somebody on a few moments ago saying they expect that to get polished off and pushed through in washington. Brady bateman, huntington funds chief investment officer, thank you, have a great new year. You bet. And you as well. Cheryl im going to have a good year, everybody, 25 on the dow year to date. Closing bell ringing 40 minutes from now. Well, kaching, this is a shoppers paradise. Bargain hunters hitting the malls, but will the postchristmas sales give retailers reasons to celebrate . Weve got an indepth look at the entire Holiday Shopping season. And also investors looking for a place to unwind after this years bull run might want to consider owning one of these. 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