Everyone from Social Security pensioners to bondholders. It wouldnt necessarily lead to a default. Lew urged congress to raise the Borrowing Limit. Cheryl James Bullard said the fed taper is likely less to come this month given shutdown in washington and data lag and debt ceiling fight. David imagine this, folks we had a huge rally despite the number of firsttime jobless claims soared 66,000 last month to a sixmonth high of 374,000. Officials said, the number was distorted by reporting problems in california. The effects of the partial government shut down. Again, bad news, good market rally. Cheryl u. S. Shoppers remaining cautious in the month of september ahead of the Holiday Shopping season. Thomson reuters samestore sales index rose 2. 2 . That is weaker than expected. David Liberty Media chairman john malone said Cable Companies should set up arrive val to netflix. They believe it would help the cable industry solve the problem of high costs. He is a happy man. After the bell on a huge market day starts right now. David were not going to bury the headline the market is the story. Lets get to action. Jason pride from glenmede. Telling investors not to hide under the table during the shutdown. Chris ressler, needham fund manager who thinks concern about the shutdown has passed. Scott shellady innthe pits of the cme. Scott is a trader. Scott is a farmer. Scott is a philosopher. Scott is the man to explain how a sixweek temporary solution to the debt crisis could lead to a 300point rally. Go ahead and explain, scott. How about we start off with this. Weve come a long way from green eggs and ham and taxes reform. That is the thing we got to look at. Taxes an entitlement will drive the market. That is what most traders are looking at. Well have to go through this in another six weeks time. That means we have six weeks to work on tax entitlement reform. Cruz got a lot of flak what he did with the book in congress but got us where we need to be to start to address the longterm issues. Cheryl jason, obviously the markets are celebrating they believe a deal could potentially work out. Even the deal on the table is only six weeks. The temporary thing scott was talking about, jason. Does that mean investors will buy up today but well see more volatility over next six weeks . Depends what we see over the next six weeks. This was a olive twig turning into a olive branch and gradually esolving to what we ended up with today. That could easily devolve. Our best guess that cooler heads will prevail. Well eventually end up with some sort of a deal. Maybe not everything everybody is looking fo keep doing this, h back towards normal. That is our ongoing theme. Were inching back towards normal over the years, past couple years and still doing it today. David chris, today was not inching. Today was leaps an bounds. By the way the dow jones is settling up about 323 points to the plusside. All that you got to take all that with a little bit of a grain of salt because were dealing with earnings that are not blowout earnings, are they chris . Yeah, i think earnings season will be mixed a little bit, especially on guidance to what damage was done last two weeks to Companies Creating economic value out there. We know d. C. Doesnt do that but companies do. I will be looking for that in the quarterly calls that are coming up. But i think today the rally was something people didnt want to miss. Portfflio managers knew some deal would be coming. I think that will happen over the next week or so. Cheryl jason, i want to point our attention to the dow. David mentioned this. Were closing at session highs. Were pushing that right now. On september 30th, this was a day, jason before we had the shutdown. We had the market close 15, 129. We basically erased all drama over the last several sessions. That doesnt mean the market is immune to washington . I think when we look at it, you have to step back and take a view of the market as the whole. Were sitting at 15, 16 times normalized earnings. No, real bigtime stretch in valuations. These are pretty bear valuations. You compare that to other opportunities out there. Just for a basic investor, equities versus fixed income, fixed income at 266, 2. 70 on the 10year treasury compared to earnings yields of 6 to 7 on stocks. Its a pretty good deal still to be a stock investor. That doesnt mean you dont have destructions and worries about debt ceiling issues but generally buyers of equities will be favored in this environment. David scott shellady, lets go from macro to micro. Look at gold. It is down 20. It has a 12 handle. It is down to 1288 an ounce. To me what that is saying things are going so well on wall street maybe there will be a tapering in one of the next three meetings that ben bernanke is share of. I dont think well get any tapering for the rest of this year. So on that micro level i think we push it back to maybe the Second Quarter of next year. I still think we have washington problems ahead of us. We havent changed really unemployment picture. Were still dealing with inputs. We need to see strong earnings. Look at 10year rate. Telling you not that much changed. Wwat is gold telling you. 1300 gold is unsustainable in deflationary cycle. Watch these prices grind lower. Cheryl chris lets get into the micro. I will talk about davids theme. If there are stocks to be bought we would like to know what they are. You have a couple of picks. I want to, a lot of people got hurt with this one, next stage medical. This is a company you like. Why . It is focused on the Home Dialysis for patients. What it does, it helps to drive a lot of costs out of the health care system. We think that the d. C. Will be supportive of that. What they need is home health training. Increases to train the patients. We hope that happens. They have got new products out there and were really bullish on their future over the next couple years going forward. Jason, lets continue with health and talk about johnson johnson. We see it trading now, i think it ended the day almost 88. 87. 78 for a share. That is a stock hovering at about 65 for the longest time. At least two or three years. You dont think it is too pricey now . Youre getting mid double digits, 16, 17 times sort of earnings range for this on a longterm basis. Youre geting a fair dividend, a nice growth in the underlying dividend. David i would say it is a very generous dividend, isnt it about 3 if. The most important thing, not just a dividend yield, you can collect growth over period of time from. This environment in a yieedseeking environment with treasurys priced way they are, a lot of investors gone after highest yielding stocks. Were not really in that camp of the highest yielding or the high Growth Companies. We want steady Growth Companies that can grind the dividend higher over time at reasonable valuations. That is the way you will make money this environment. Cheryl scott, speaking of making money, got to be a bond investor today. Especially what we saw in the treasury markets really has been fascinating. You and david were talking about gold and safety play which seems off the table. Do you feel the same way about treasurys, scott . I know what . Im not, there is not a lot of people behind me on this but i still think were in trouble. I like to see the next two employment numbers to start to get us out of the rut were in. think the 10year rate slowly grinds through 2. 50, down through 2. 25. A lot of folks think im saying well see a stock market rally at same time because of yellen and dovishness and well keep the accommodation going through the economy. Watch this space when the 10year starts to tell you, that will be the truth. The economy still needs accommodation and well continue to grind lower in the 10year with the stock market rallying slowll. David chris, were about to talk oil. We have a special oil segment. The question there, basically how can we continue to produce owl all the oil in the United States without it affecting the price . Youre betting on superior energy. Why . We still like the oil and service Gas Companies out there. Capex budgets have not been spent. Were going into the winter months if we have cold winters up in canada they can get out there and drill. There is some really Good Movement of equipment around the country into the Permian Basin and the bakkan basin. We think that is set up for really good next couple years in their opportunities. Cheryl chris, jason, gentlemen, thanks to both of you. Great to have you especially on a day with this massive rally. Scott shellady well check in with you shortly with the s p futures close which will look pretty good here. David that is understatement. Will america rise as Worlds Energy top producer still not affecting prices as much as opec does. Doesnt that make you mad . When will that change . We asked the two best Energy Analysts on the planet period cheryl i agree with you on those two guys. Were counting down to a highstakes meeting between president obama anddtop House Republicans in less than 30 minutes. Well be monitoring every wire we have to find out what is going on and what is happening inside the white house. David and our facebook question directly how what is going on in washington is affecting the markets, are the markets going to drop again when any new debt deal expires in november . November 22nd is when it expires. Log on to facebook. Com afterthebell. Let us know. [ indistinct shouting ] [ indistinct shoing ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. Splitcond stats. 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Well, not having bnches lets us give you great rates and service. Id like that. A new way to bank. A better way to save. Allyank. Your money needs an ally. David well, today the market was up bigtime based on thoughts that a deal had been made. Now there is some question about whether in fact there is a deal. I know it seems off again, on again, off again, on again. Were getting information with meeting from Senate Democrats at white house. Afterwards harry reid stepped out and put it very bluntly, he said, im quoting, not going to happen. This is from senator harry reid. He is head of Senate Democrats. He extremely partisan personality. Less likely to compromise. Maybe he is just staking out a position. According to reid deal is quote, not going to happen. Cheryl which is a Crucial Point to bring up, david, because the gop is heading into the white house in 15 minutes to meet. It is John Boehners belief at this point that the president is ready to sit down and extend the debt limit for six weeks. David these numbers may have a beside them tomorrow. For the moment lets bask in a glory of a moment of 323 points on the dow. Let lets head back to Lauren Simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Lauren. Were watching safeway. You can see me even better. Lights off, lights on this was up 2. 5 in the session. That is what the market did, right . Afterhours, reporting earnings profits 30 cents a share versus estimate of 16. Revenue coming in 8. 62 billion. Also beating. Safeway decided to exit the chicago market and investors like that, consolidation. This will be a winner tomorrow. Hopefully the overall market will continue its gains tomorrow. I want to add really quickly, guys i was talking to a bunch traders leaving the floor. That is why were down here. We give you the pulse of the market. They think the stock market was up today besides washington that investors are starting to give them orders. They were sitting on sidelines past couple days. That money is coming back. Cheryl good point about safeway, they still have a strong west coast presence. That is strong stock and they have a lot of strength out there. Lawyer rin, thank you very much. America may move up as worlds top energy producer. Opec numbers move the markets. Oil prices rose after opec report ad drop in the september out put and renewed concerns over supplies in the middle east and north africa. When will americas output, our numbers become a determining number in the price we pay for oil and gas . We have steven schork, from from the schork report. Phil flynn, Senior Market analyst. Im not exaggerating. These guys are the best in the business. Steve, first to you, when will our youd putnam members affect the price we pay. Shoally but slowly but surely. We have past five years come down from 12 Million Barrels we imported to 7 Million Barrels. Were produces as much oil as we are importing it. The problem in the u. S. , which can not get the oil where we need it. It is produced in canada up along saskatchewan plain, produced in bakken in the heartland and permanent me an in west texas. We need to get oil to refineries in philadelphia, refineries in houston, refineries in west coast to turn all the cheap crude oil what we need, gasoline and diesel fuel. This is a ongoing process. We made Great Strides over the past two years with getting this oil, mainly through trains. Now, what happens, we need to get a pipeline, Something Like maybe, hey, the xl pipeline, Keystone Pipeline to get the oil down through canada, down into houston in a very cheap manner. Not until we get that oil until where we need it will have an impact on the price. David thats what i want to know, phil. Once that happens, and i say once, no matter how much pressure that the president receives from the environmentalists who are against hese projects i think it eventually will happen. Once it happens, once which get the pipeline, once we begin to turn all that oil into gasoline, will we see dramatic lowering of prices . I think we are. I think one of the things you have to realize, david, highest prices are right now i think were already seeing an impact. The best way i could demonstrate that if you look at the spread between the brent and wti crude oil. And for years of course because the United States was the biggest consumer, the oil that we produced here in the United States always traded at least at a 2dollar premium over what they were paying for it in europe. If you look at that spread today it is dramatically changed. In europe the cost of a barrel of oil is going for over 111 a barrel. Almost 8 to 9 a barrel higher right now. Because of that were already seeing the impact. Stevens right, were just getting infrastructure into place. That difference, if this were, 10 years ago, instead of paying, you know, near 101 a barrel, we might be paying 120. So it already made an impact and it will get better as time goes on. David steve, there is another elephant in the room we have to talk about which is the Federal Reserve board. Some people say it is not the price of oil but the price of the dollar that is critical when you talk about how much we pay for energy. Are oil prices more about the fed and their policies than the supply of oil . Well it certainly is a determining factor at this point. There is a very good correlation. Now, keep in mind, two different assets, over the long term. There is no correlation. But in the here and now there is a correlation and it does ebb and flow. So the theory is a weak dollar is actually bullish for oil because it makes oil denominated in dollars cheaper for other countries. With the taper, lack of taper which i suppose is the belief now with yellen certainly does set a floor for the market for investors to look to diversify into oil based on those keeps dollars. Its a caveat. Look, supply and demand at this point, were moving the demand along the xaxis to the left. Were moving supply, crude o oil supplies in the United States, 370 million bears, are the second highest level since 1931. So the supply curve is moving to the right after the axis. That should pull price down along the y axis. We should look at falling price sis. Forgive me for interrupting. Phil flynn, that leads to irony, screaming irony precisely this moment stephen suck at thatting about, we have all this oil, Carbon Energy in the United States, we have a president who wants to kill Carbon Energy. He does. David i dont know if there is question, but speak to the irony of that. The bottom line i think it is funny. Just over a year ago president obama was making speeches on the stump saying there is no way well be able to grow ourself to energy prosperity. Guess what . Yes we can, yes we can. Were doing it right now. So he has to change his gameplan a little bit. Instead of bashing Carbon Energy and natural gas, now he is taking credit for it. Look at some speeches he is taking credit for it. Listen, the end of the day, stephen make as good point about the correlation. If you go back to even the great depression, usually the oil and the dollar are most correlated during times of economic stress. Weve seen that since 2008. The correlation, the quantitative easing, it has been very clear. But ill tell you what, once the economy gets healthy i think we will break that correlation. Da