Course. Very own peter barnes, he snagged an exclusive interview with a top Federal Reserve official well get to. Michael, start with you first. We have the dow. It hit its sixth Straight Year of gains and now what . Yeah, well thats a great question. I think one of the things that people have to ask themselves is over the last six years weve seen the market increase about 150 . That, that question you have to ask yourself is, how much longer can it continue. I think people are getting skeptical where the market is, how long it will stay there. People need to start looking taking some gains off the table and waiting to see what might happen in 2015. Cheryl well get to peter and the fed in a second. Phil oil it is really what it is all about. People have money in their pocket because oil prices are down. How much longer does that last . I think the prices will stay down pretty much all of next year. Well hit a low of 44. Maybe lower. I think well recover in the second half of the year. Good news isnt always good news all the time. I think Lower Energy Prices is going to eventually filter down to our economy and slow us down a little bit. I believe that the u. S. Energy sector is added almost one 1 2 to gdp. It is created a lot of highpaying jobs weve seen created in this country and im very concerned that the cutback in Capital Expenditures in the Energy Industry may slow the entire economy down. Im a little pessimistic that the low prices are all good news. I think it is probably bad news. Cheryl peter that being said, does that mean the fed will slow itself down . You scored some great information today. Tell us about it. I did ask her specifically about the oil prices and she said at least right now it is a net positive for the economy and positive for economic growth. She sees economy growing at 3 this year. Unemployment falling five 1 2 . As a result the fed could cut interest, excuse me start to raise Interest Rates sometime in the first half of this year. Take a listen. We have had some false starts or false dawns. Remember the green chutes we talked about. Look at fundamentals in the economy now. Theyre pointing towards this is being a real sustainable, long term. And acceleration. I also asked her specifically if she saw any bubbles in Financial Markets including in the equity markets. While she is not making any specific recommendations to investors, she did say that she does not see any bubbles out there right now so. Take that into our discussion. Michael cleveland fed president Loretta Mester who peter had great interview with said no. That the rates will potentially go up. The economy will probably be okay. You think otherwise. Why . I think the way she said that is very carefully crafted. The fed is always good about watches the words. In all reality what the fed is looking for, theyre looking to see that the economy is strong on its own footing Strong Enough to support an increase in Interest Rates. If we do see that increase, which, candidly i think wording actually lended a little bit towards looking for a reason to push that increase off a little it about, if there is an increase, it will have to be very slight and very measured. Phil the oil market might be a reason based on what youre saying or the fed in general pushes this off a little bit longer. One thing that worries me with gas prices so low were starting to hear our congressional leaders talk about a gas tax hike again. What would that do to the economy . Sob havinglous obviously it is not positive for sure. The problem with the gas tax tracy what did they do with the money they have taken already . What happened to the shovelready projects . What happened to all that money. That is my problem. Listen we all know we need infrastructure in this country but a gas tax isnt going to cut it. The demand for gasoline is ulnaing in this country. Just by adding more money to the gas tax doesnt solve the problem. Youre throwing the money down an empty well really. As far as the fed when it comes to the low gasoline prices it is a doubleedged sword. On one hand they dont have to worry about inflation. That is the good news. The bad news they dont have to worry about inflation. They may have to worry about deflation as well. It wit be very difficult for the fed to raise Interest Rates with problems in europe. Mario draghi says were having trouble with inflation. I think it will be a problem. Cheryl peter can you address that . Fill makes a great point. Inflation is on the table again. She said very clearly when they get around to raising Interest Rates it is going to be very slowly and very carefully and data dependent and theyre going to be watching all of this oil price europe, everything, to make sure that when they side to pull the trigger that the economys healthy enough to withstand a a returning to higher Interest Rates and it is going to be a very slow increase over time. But, michael arent, were still the healthiest kid in the doctors office, arent we . Compared to russia, china europe where else are you going to go . Yeah i think thats an excellent point. I actually look from a global standpoint i think many people are looking at the United States as the cleanest dirty shirt in the Laundry Basket and theyre looking for direction and for leadership but the reality is, i think the some of the problems that are going on globally like were just mentioned a moment ago, could have an impact on our economy, our growth and thus as a result, the, whether or not the fed does increase in 2015 or off to 2016. Speaking of all those countries, phil, russia, europe, u. S. That is part of the reason for this gas price drop, right . We have so much oil now. It is. And yeah, part of the story has been the revolution in this country. Were producing more oil than we have in they are years. That is all great news. But part of it is because we have a slowing global economy. If we looked at what drove the energy over the last couple years, it was that incredible growth we saw in china and asia and india. Even europe. But now look at those countries. They are contracting right now. When you look at oil supplies around the globe were highest levels weve ever been. We have more supplies in storage in the United States than weve ever had to begin a new year. And if you look at whats happening in the other countries, theyre not cutting back on production. Russia cant afford to cut back. So guess what theyre doing . Theyre producing most oil they have since the fall of the soviet union. Theyre producing more oil in iraq and iran. Iran is basically begging saudi arabia please, cut production. This is going to be a disaster for these economies. At some point something has got to give. You cant have the u. S. Just grow and have all these other countries, these oilproducing countries on the brink of collapse. Phil, isnt it a market share game . What does it cost for the saudis to get their oil out . Six bucks a barrel . How much does it cost putin and his pals, 100 a barrel . So who will win that fight . Thats the whole thing. The thing im worried about peter there is a target on the u. S. Energy producer. Listen the reason why this has all come down it has been this Energy Revolution in this country. And it has been a revolution. It has filtered down to the entire economy. It brought manufacturing back to this country. It has created highpaying jobs for the top end of the sector the lower end of the sector. Thats is what im afraid of and theyre going after itp it is going to be, this is a war. Its a production war. And there is going to be a lot of people that will get hurt. There will be a lot of casualties along the way. I think u. S. Will be able to withstand it. But it will be incredible headwind. You hit the nail on the head. That is worrisome. It will affect jobs at end of the day and were already on shaky ground. You guys are terrific. Have a great weekend. You too. Still a lot more to come this hour including your reaction. Plus a look at some of the biggest finance trend in 2015. And next, not only is obamacare raising your Health Care Costs starting this year it will actually impact your taxes. We have what you need to know before you file your tax return. That is all after the break. Dont go anywhere. Tracy new year is finally here. That means tax Filing Season is right around the corner. Tax experts say it may be a tricky one. With the obamacare provisions this means all taxfilers will have to prove whether they had Health Insurance in 2014 or face penalties. Financial expert and radio show host author, peter dunne. People really need to know there will be a new form in their tax return they will have to muddle through to prove to the irs that they had health care. Yeah. If tax returns werent confusing enough. Now theres another form but it is honor system, tracy. So go figure. We have the honor system as part of do you have Health Care Coverage or not. With a weakened irs, from a budget standpoint and even staffing standpoint this is going to be kind of tough to enforce. Tracy not truly honor system, right . Because the Insurance Companies are required to send a form home to you with all the pertinent information you need to file out this additional onerous form and irs get as copy, so they kind of have some clue. There are some checks and balances to that but i think well tuned is, of course people that dont have the proper Health Care Coverage are going to face a tax or a mandate of 95 per person, or 1 of their income whatever is greater. That is just in 2015. Those numbers go up significantly in 2016. This is causing people concern not only from monetary standpoint but even tax prepare race. I think you will see increase in people using tax preparers this year, opposed to computer programs or just old pencil and paper. Tracy i know computer programs are fit to calculate this for you but you bring up a great point because it is all about calculating that subsidy. Do you deserve it . Should you get it . If youve gotten it in the past and you dont you got to give it back. That is where all the complican. Were all in the same boat. If you happen to get a tax refund youre used to same amount about every single year. With this, if the calculation of the subsidy was wrong, youre going to have a lower amount. It is going to get tricky. I loy a think a lot of produce sprayings already exists about the Affordable Care act will come to surface again when the taxation issues comes. Telling you tracy next year will be much worse but i think were just getting a taste of what is to come. Tracy i agree with you. The irs is already threatening that your refund will be delayed because they are understaffed. Probably just as confused as we are. The best advice to people is start early and go see the tax preparer as soon as possible. That old april 14th, hey lets take care of this game is kind of in the past. Tracy right. With so much in the economy that seems positive, low gas price, rising growth in the economy this could be a little bit of a bump that at least brings some frustration to american consumer. Tracy unfortunately the forms are not printed yet. We dont know what they look like. Were all waiting, im talking we tax dorks like myself, on pins and needles for this form come out to help people figure this all out. That is exactly right. People love to get taxes done as soon as end of january. Frankly i dont see that happening. Tracy it will be complicated. Peter, thanks so much for helping us muddle through it. My pleasure. Tracy later in the show well look ahead to life saving medical innovations coming in 2015. Some good stuff. Whats in and whats out when it comes to you and your money in 2015 . So are people saving or spending . Are they buying or selling . Vera gibbons breaks it all down for us next. . Tracy all right. It is a new year, that means new trend to look forward to and know no, its not bellbottoms. Credit card technology, going out with the old and in with the new for 2015. What is in, what is out . Personal finance expert vera gibbons is here with the list. First thing and big thing savings out. So hard to save now because wages are flat. Costs are up on just about everything. College costs. Health care costs. Groceries, problem it becomes easier to spend given growth in mobile payment spending devices especially apple pay. Tracy amazon prime. Holy heck. Your credit card information is stored there. It is easy to spend without thinking about it. Same with apple pay. Tap your card and it is done. Like funny money. Monopoly money and i think it will lead to a bad trend. Tracy we have savings fatigue and we awe buckled down during the recession and saved and saved and were sick of it. Which lead us to homebuyers. You think firsttimers especially. Investment buyers have been keeping us afloat. With zillow which i blog for rents will outpace home values in 2015. Tracy and mortgages. You will see more of renters who otherwise happy jump into the home buying arena and buy. Tracy that is good. That would be a great thing. Markets things are more favorable to firsttime homebuyers and buyers like in pittsburgh chicago las vegas ha hartford, some of other markets, they looked at incomes and home values. They looked at all different statistics. These are lists they come up with. Firsttime buyers may actually jump in. Tracy that is great for the economy. What is bad for the economy your next trend, traditional employees are out and your contract workers are in. Unfortunately. Weve seen this trend happen, last several years. Everyone is doing contract work, freelance work, project work. No benefits. No longterm job security. No nothing. Unfortunately this is the wave of future. If you look at statistics, 53 million American Workers are working as freelancers. That is 3 hers of the workforce. Contract workers used to be athletes actors, actresses. Now it is happening across a broad range tracy is it by choice or because of obamacare or costs . It is not by choice. People dont want to be contract workers or freelance workers. Some people like flexibility particularly if over a certain age. Employers really like it. They dont have to pay out benefits. Tracy this will catch up with us in the end when come retirement, they dont nothing to save. They dont have anything to save. Speaking retirement, we have aging in place versus staying in home. Staying in place. Tracy prying me out of there with my cold dead fingers. Aging baby boomers are calling shots. They dont want to stay on back porch and grow old gracefully. They want to get out with their friend and do things. Culture, art, entertainment. Time with family and friends and stay within their own home. Theyre fueling a trend in remodeling stuff. Theyre doing all Different Things that will make it easier for them to stay home. Tracy ramps . Things like that . Things aesthetically pleasing not hospitallike. Things more function. Tracy they will need care workers at home. That will fuel that for sure. Tracy i invited my mother to come live with me. How about that . She said no. All of full. Awful. Credit card swiping out credit card dipping in. What is that. Versus swiping magnetic card is on its way out. There is a shift underway you may not know about that is happening in 2015 toward another type of cards emd cards which is the cards with a different type of chip technology. Tracy yes. Which is more secure. It will help consumers feel a little better when they make the purchases because there has been so much fraud and so much and breaches that you saw over the past couple of years. Fraud is up ridiculously some so this will actually help that problem. So these cards are actually going to, expected to be mainstream in 2015. So Magnetic Stripe swipe card are on the way out. Tracy that is a good thing. That is a very good thing. Tracy ill tell you this Holiday Season if i couldnt use paypal i didnt purchase online. Paypal has been so awesome in the past if you make a mistake or get an error. Otherwise it is scary. There you go. Tracy vera, youre great. Youre awesome too. Tracy thank you. Coming up we continue our look at 2015 including what we can expect in the world of medicine. We got some cool innovations that may save your life. From the super bowl to march mad des fans are making plans to attend these big events. We have what you need to know before you buy those whopping, expensive tickets. That is all next. So youd do anything to take care of that spot on your lawn. So why not take care of that spot on your skin . If youre a man over 50 youre in the group most likely to develop skin cancer, including melanoma, the cancer that kills 1 person every hour. Check your skin for suspicious or changing spots. Go to spotskincancer. Org to find out what to look for. A message from the American Academy of dermatology. Tracy 2015, is bringing promising medical breakthroughs that will help people live longer and look better and have better lives, what could be better . Dr. Kelly powers is with us. I would think reversing the aging process is all anybody cares about. Of course, the fountain of youth question is it possible . According to a study from Harvard University and New South Wales they say it is, they did a study with old mice inoculating them with a certain protein. Within one week it reversed the aging process. Tracy basically make their blood younger . They saw muscle tone changes, increase in muscle tone, heart strength and neurons in the brain developing. It has the potential for alzheimers disease, spinal chord treatments the potential is endless. Tracy that is going to continue, i know it. The notion of better blood tests, thank god. Anyone thats gotten a blood test it is painful. Correct. Tracy and emotionally trying to tie you up and all this stuff. Absolutely. Stress. People have inate fear. This idea is a simple finger stick, we can find cbc, Metabolic Panel from from a finger stick. No sense to take vials of blood out of you. Tracy this is near and dear to me, i have high cholesterol. It is a pain i